Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Glass, Agricultural Products (in some aspects), PTA, Short Fiber - Bearish: Palm Oil, Live Pigs - Neutral/Oscillating: Macro Finance, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp, Logs, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Rubber, Styrene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. Central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support drive the prices of some metals and other commodities, while supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors also affect different sectors [1]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - The market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year. Traders can establish long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's warning on interest - rate risks suppresses short - term upward movement [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support, the price is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: With positive macro sentiment and limited industrial drive, the price rebounds [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's internal differences cause macro sentiment to fluctuate. The domestic situation has improved slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the macro sentiment. Indonesia restricts nickel - related projects, and with production cuts in intermediate products, the price is expected to recover in the short term. The long - term surplus pattern remains [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the sentiment. The price of raw material nickel - iron is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price rebounds slightly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's differences cause macro sentiment to be unstable. Supply has not recovered, and the price is strong. There is demand pressure, and the long - term trend is bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut is high, but geopolitical tensions may ease, and the number of unemployment - benefit applicants has decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly cutting production [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: The industrial off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the price has limited upward space. Traders can participate in virtual value accumulation strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good. The direct demand is okay, but the supply is high, and the inventory is increasing, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is poor, but the cost support is strong. The supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation provides support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment drives strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The price increase faces resistance, and it generally follows the glass market [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start restocking around mid - December. Unilateral trading should be short - term, and long - term investment needs further observation [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production in the origin and reduced exports. Domestic purchases are large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor refutation of the US delaying the reduction of incentives for imported bio - fuel raw materials creates a bullish expectation difference, supporting the price of US soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, but foreign capital's long - position trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong bumper - harvest expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is low, but there is a rigid restocking demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Bean粕**: The short - term supply is tight, and the spot price is firm. The market should pay attention to farmers' selling rhythm. The M05 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: Old warehouse receipts are being cancelled, and new ones are being registered. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the price is oscillating in the short term [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weak, but it has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The current spot price is stable, demand provides support, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It generally follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - **Asphalt**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw - material crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is high [1]. - **Rubber**: The price of butadiene provides limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation. High inventory restricts price increases, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in production capacity [1]. - **Short Fiber**: It closely follows the cost trend [1]. - **Styrene**: The export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - dumping and cost [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - month contracts [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the market is expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [1]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose, and the price increase is less than expected [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a strong rally, driven by multiple favorable factors including increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved market liquidity, alongside significant revenue growth in Alibaba's cloud business and a resurgence in AI focus [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573) has seen a strong increase, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Huahong Semiconductor (up 5.36%), Kangfang Biotech (up 4.89%), and Li Auto (up 3.87%) [1]. - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (159751) has risen by 0.73%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price reported at 1.1 HKD [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent rally in the Hong Kong technology sector is attributed to the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the market [1]. - The combination of the Federal Reserve's halt on balance sheet reduction and the relaxation of SLR regulations is expected to limit liquidity pressure in the medium term [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index comprises 50 large-cap technology companies with high R&D investment and revenue growth, reflecting the overall performance of leading technology stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and SMIC, collectively accounting for 66.81% of the index [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - There are various factors influencing different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Each commodity has its own unique price trends and investment outlooks based on these factors [2][3][4] - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of range - bound trading, while others may have potential for price increases or decreases depending on specific circumstances such as cost support, inventory changes, and demand fluctuations [8][14][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there are still downward drivers due to future inventory build - up expectations. The near - term risk is related to Russia's stance on the peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost increases. High - sulfur fuel oil may see short - term price support from supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China have improved, with inventory reduction accelerating. However, long - term, it still faces pressure as demand follows a seasonal decline [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and silver is relatively strong. Uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical situations remain [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices rose, driven by an increased probability of a US interest rate cut in the next month. Short - term trading should focus on position changes [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly. After a price correction, downstream demand showed some resilience. The market is in a high - level oscillation [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, providing some support to zinc prices. However, weak domestic demand restricts upward movement, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, but the market sentiment is still cold. Stainless steel costs are decreasing, and the fundamental situation is weak [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin prices rose, and Shanghai tin followed suit. Attention should be paid to position changes [11] - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak as steel mills are in a seasonal production - cut period. The market is expected to be range - bound [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may weaken as the carbon element supply is abundant and downstream demand is under pressure. Coking coal prices are also expected to be weak [16][17] - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are range - bound. Although demand has improved slightly, overall demand is still weak, and supply pressure is gradually easing [14] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene prices are rising, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upward space. Polyethylene supply is stable, and demand is weakening [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are oscillating. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are also weak due to high supply and low demand [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term due to potential supply cuts from maintenance. PTA is expected to follow cost - driven trends with improved processing margins [29] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to try long - side trading or positive spread trading as overseas production cuts are being realized and port inventories are expected to decline [24] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and although demand has increased recently, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [23] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. South American soybean planting is affected by weather, and it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after a pull - back [35] - **Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil market's marginal negative factors are easing, which may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a correction. North port prices are rising, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast. It is recommended to short at high levels with caution [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The pig industry is in a de - capacity phase, which supports far - month futures prices. However, short - term prices are weak, and a second bottom may form next year [40] - **Eggs**: The medium - term supply pressure of eggs is expected to ease, but short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of futures - spot price spreads [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is slightly rising. Domestic cotton has cost support and limited upside. The cotton yarn market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are in high - level oscillation. Short - term prices are strong, but long - term, there may be inventory pressure on far - month contracts [44] Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - European Line)**: Near - month contracts are weak due to weak spot market expectations, while far - month contracts are under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are falling. Port inventories are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and Fed rate - cut expectations [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures are falling, and there are concerns about bond repayment risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals. In the short - term, pay attention to the change of the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation, and Fed officials' speeches are the only signal when data is lacking. Technically, pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and corrections are regarded as mid - to - long - term opportunities to add long positions. The resistance of London gold is 4250, support is 4000, and strong support is in the 3900 area; the resistance of silver is 54.5, and support is 50. Platinum and palladium prices currently mainly follow gold and silver, dominated by investment attributes [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December and the delivery pressure of COMEX gold and silver in December's delivery month made precious metals prone to rise and hard to fall. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in economic activity during the government shutdown period. US economic data included a decrease in the number of initial jobless claims to 216,000 and a 0.5% month - on - month increase in the preliminary value of September durable goods orders. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted a 3.9% GDP growth rate in Q3. Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures were listed today, and options will be listed on Friday. Finally, COMEX gold 2602 contract closed at $4160.6/oz (+0.5%); COMEX silver 2603 contract closed at $53.05/oz (+4.09%); SHFE gold 2602 contract closed at 946.72 yuan/g (+0.55%); SHFE silver 2602 contract closed at 12,227 yuan/kg (+1.79%); NYMEX platinum 2601 contract closed at $1598.8/oz (+2.16%); NYMEX palladium 2603 contract closed at $1464.5/oz (+4.20%) [1] Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 was 15.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 84.9%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.57 tons to 1045.43 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15,511.81 tons; global platinum ETF holdings decreased by 0.0003 tons to 96.271 tons; global palladium ETF holdings decreased by 0.079 tons to 32.2961 tons (-0.24%). SHFE gold inventory remained at 9.04 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.1 tons to 531.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 58.8 tons to 715.9 tons in the week ending November 21. NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories remained unchanged [2] This Week's Focus - Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving in the US. CME precious metal futures contract trading will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on the 28th on Thursday and at 03:45 Beijing time on the 29th on Friday [3] Precious Metal Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 946.72 yuan/g (+0.02%); SGX gold TD was at 941.17 yuan/g (+0.05%); CME gold main contract was at $4196.1/oz (+0.74%); SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 12,227 yuan/kg (+0.82%); SGX silver TD was at 12,209 yuan/kg (+0.63%); CME silver main contract was at $53.76/oz (+5.25%); SHFE - TD gold was at 5.55 yuan/g (-4.48%); SHFE - TD silver was at 18 yuan/kg (-73.68%); CME gold - silver ratio was 78.0525 (-4.28%); NYMEX platinum main - continuous contract was at $1598.8/oz (+2.16%); NYMEX palladium main - continuous contract was at $1464.5/oz (+4.20%) [6] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 90,423 kg (0%); CME gold inventory was 1137.3521 tons (-0.01%); SHFE gold position was 188,763 lots (+4.19%); SPDR gold position was 1045.43 tons (+0.44%); SHFE silver inventory was 531.211 tons (-1.73%); CME silver inventory was 14,248.0999 tons (-0.25%); SGX silver inventory was 715.875 tons (-7.59%); SHFE silver position was 385,232 lots (+5.07%); SLV silver position was 15,582.334202 tons (0%); NYMEX platinum inventory was 19.1893 tons (0%); NYMEX platinum position was 88,642 lots (-2.45%); NYMEX palladium inventory was 5.3879 tons (0%); NYMEX palladium position was 21,673 lots (-4.82%); global platinum ETF was 96.271 tons (0%); global palladium ETF was 32.2961 tons (-0.24%) [13] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 99.5831 (-0.22%); the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0693 (-0.19%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 47,427.12 points (+0.67%); WTI crude oil spot was $58.65/barrel (+1.21%); LmeS copper 03 was $10,953/ton (+1.11%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4% (-0.25%); the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.77% (-1.12%); the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.55% (-5.17%) [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising copper prices and a shift towards aluminum in the HVAC industry due to high copper costs [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) has risen by 1.75%, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595) up 4.34% and Yun Aluminum (000807) up 4.13% [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is contributing to the overall rise in non-ferrous metals, with aluminum and steel increasingly replacing copper in various applications [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.91% of the index, with significant companies including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a positive trend on November 26, with all three major indices rising for four consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 314.67 points to close at 47,427.12, a gain of 0.67% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 46.73 points, closing at 6,812.61, reflecting a 0.69% increase [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 189.1 points, ending at 23,214.69, which is an increase of 0.82% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Technology stocks mostly rose, with Oracle up over 4%, AMD nearly 4%, and Broadcom over 3%, reaching historical highs. Nvidia, Tesla, Netflix, and Microsoft increased by over 1%, while Apple rose by 0.21%, also hitting a historical high. Google, however, fell by over 1% [1] - Retail stocks showed strong performance, with Walmart increasing by nearly 2% to a historical high, Kohl's up over 7%, Macy's up over 2%, and Costco up over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.03%. Bilibili and Xpeng Motors fell by over 2%, while Baidu dropped by 1.31%. Pinduoduo rose by 1.58%, JD.com by 0.96%, and Alibaba by 0.38% [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, below the market expectation of 225,000, marking the lowest level since April [2] - The report indicated that overall consumer spending has declined, except for high-end consumer spending [2] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently estimate an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December and will make two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [4] - JPMorgan revised its forecast, now expecting a rate cut in December, shifting from a previous prediction of a delay until January [4] - Deutsche Bank strategists anticipate that the S&P 500 index will rise to 8,000 by the end of 2026, indicating an upside potential of approximately 18% [4]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 99.466, while spot silver opened at $53.31/oz and is currently around $53.16/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 12,396 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 12,430 CNY/kg [1] - On November 26, the US dollar index fell by 0.24% to close at 99.569. Spot silver rose by 3.60% to $53.31/oz, driven by increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Spot gold also reached a one-week high, rising by 0.79% to $4,162.35/oz, while platinum and palladium prices increased by 2.18% and 2.59%, respectively [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,582.33 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, the direction of the deferred compensation payment for Ag (T+D) was from short to long [2] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were recorded at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that US economic activity has remained stable in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining further, except for high-end consumers. The employment market has shown slight weakness, while price levels continue to rise moderately [3] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 51.422, experienced a pullback to 51.264, and then saw a strong upward trend, reaching a daily high of 53.385 before closing at 53.33. This bullish pattern suggests continued demand for upward movement, with support levels at 37.8 and 38.8, and targets set at 53.3, 53.7, and 54-54.2 [4]

Market Overview - As of November 26, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with peanuts rising nearly 4% and polysilicon up nearly 3%, while the shipping index for Europe dropped nearly 8% [3][20] - The A-share market exhibited divergent trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, reflecting a rotation of funds among high-dividend defensive sectors and oversold tech stocks [7] Commodity Predictions - The outlook for various commodities is categorized as follows: bullish for corn, crude oil, and glass; neutral for a wide range of products including aluminum and lithium; and bearish for soybean meal and palm oil [4] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in September increased by only 0.2%, indicating consumer fatigue amid rising prices due to tariffs, although economists expect robust economic growth in Q3 [5] - The U.S. government reported a fiscal deficit of $284 billion in October, influenced by a recent government shutdown and record tariff revenues [6] Specific Commodity Insights - Peanuts are expected to maintain stable prices with limited room for significant upward or downward adjustments, focusing on supply dynamics from Henan province [10][11] - The apple market is characterized by low inventory levels, providing price support, but faces pressure from seasonal fruit supply [11] - The pig market shows a slight rebound, but supply remains ample, leading to limited price recovery potential [12] - Coking coal and coke futures experienced declines, with supply remaining marginally loose but limited by production safety issues [13] - Silver futures rose by 1.79%, influenced by U.S. PPI data indicating inflationary pressures [14] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 1.45%, but demand is expected to weaken seasonally [14] - Polysilicon futures rose by 2.93%, with production expected to stabilize [15] - Methanol futures saw a rise of 1.82%, supported by overseas production cuts [16] - Glass futures increased by 1.87%, driven by production cuts amid profit compression [17] - Fuel oil futures fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuating demand and geopolitical factors [18] - Asphalt futures declined by 1.02%, reflecting weak demand due to seasonal construction slowdowns [19] - The European shipping index saw a significant drop of 7.62%, with mixed trends in shipping rates impacting market sentiment [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - The core logic is that gold has been oscillating at a high level. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December rising from about 30% - 40% a week ago to over 80%, causing the dollar index to weaken and the gold price to rise. Meanwhile, news of progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks has reduced gold's safe - haven appeal. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4200 level for New York gold and the 950 - yuan level in the domestic market [3]. Copper - Yesterday, after the Asian session, LME copper rose to the $11,000 level and then pulled back. At night, SHFE copper oscillated around the 87,000 - yuan level with a slight increase in open interest. Industrially, rising overseas inventories put pressure on the copper price, while the decline in domestic electrolytic copper inventories provides support. With rising interest - rate cut expectations, capital attention has increased, and the copper price is expected to remain strong. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the expectation of a December rate cut. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it is recommended to follow the key voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: China's internal economic momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has remained stable since May, suggesting the central bank may not rush to further relax policies. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have increased, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate work demand and production capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payrolls, the December rate - cut expectation was initially lowered, and the US dollar index rose. However, the New York Fed President's speech lifted the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to balance asset allocation in Q4, and pay attention to opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The Fed's expectation management is shifting, with a possible dovish turn in key figures' speeches in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic: Policy measures may support Q4 infrastructure investment. The central bank may not rush to relax policies. Real - estate sales have improved, but land transactions and work demand are weak [8]. - Asset Allocation: Balance asset allocation in Q4. Look for buying opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: With reduced overseas shocks, the risk appetite may rise. Stock index futures may rise in a volatile manner, stock index options may remain stable, and treasury bond futures may also rise in a volatile way [9]. - **Precious Metals**: In a short - term adjustment phase, gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the freight rate decline rate of the European container shipping line, which is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The rebound momentum is weakening. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Optimism is rising, and base metals may stop falling and rebound, with most products expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade situation has slightly eased, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, while some may decline [11]. - **Agriculture**: Market sentiment has improved, but trends are divergent. Some agricultural products are expected to rise, while others may decline or remain stable [11].