美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）在纽约一场活动中明确表示，美联储7月降息25个基点是合理的选择，理由是在通胀接近目标且上行风险有限的情况下，美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才降息。🗒️沃勒是继副主席鲍曼以外第二位公开支持7月降息的美联储官员，而且也是媒体预期的美联储主席候选人之一。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expresses a desire to provide slightly more stimulus through interest rate cuts [1] - Evidence suggests that the neutral interest rate is not far from 3% [1] - There has been no discussion with the Trump administration regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that further interest rate cuts may be necessary if core inflation remains controlled and economic growth continues to be weak [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Indicators - Core inflation must remain under control for the potential of further rate cuts to be considered [1] - Economic growth is currently described as lackluster, which influences the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1] Monetary Policy - The statement suggests a proactive approach to monetary policy, indicating that the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust interest rates in response to economic conditions [1]

美联储理事沃勒：推迟降息可能会增加未来采取更激进措施的风险。 ...

美联储的利率决断：在通胀与增长之间走钢丝 美联储内部对于货币政策的走向也存在明显分歧。6月会议纪要显示，美联储内部对降息的意见并不统一。特朗普任命的两位官员——美联储理事沃勒和鲍 曼均表示支持7月降息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，这位曾经的"鸽派"代表，如今也立场动摇，他坦言："最新一轮关税措施可能会引发新的通胀担忧，这可 能迫使美联储在获得更明确的信息前维持观望态度。"他同时警告，反复无常的政策给价格走势带来了不确定性。 美联储面临的挑战远不止经济数据本身。特朗普公开批评美联储利率"至少偏高3个百分点"，并声称利率每高一个百分点，每年就会给美国增加3600亿美元 的再融资成本。更令人担忧的是，特朗普甚至曾暗示可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他随后否认了这一计划。财政部长贝森特在回应鲍威尔可能辞职的传 闻时表示："若前美联储主席继续留任理事会，对市场而言可能会非常混乱。"这番话被解读为对鲍威尔职位的隐晦施压，美联储的独立性正面临严峻考验。 在总统公开施压、高层人事动荡的阴影下，市场担忧政治因素可能进一步干扰美联储的政策判断。 这出"悬念剧"的导火索是7月17日发布的美联储《褐皮书》（Beige Book）。这份被誉 ...

美联储戴利：（被问及七月降息的可能性时）这是个错误的问题。7月还是9月降息并不是最关键的。 ...

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence but notes its limited scope under Jerome Powell's leadership, suggesting that the Fed has ventured into policy areas beyond its authority [1][2] - Warsh argues that maintaining independence does not conflict with the need for immediate interest rate cuts, asserting that the Fed should not overly worry about tariffs leading to persistent inflation [1][2] - The concept of a "shadow Fed chair" was introduced by current U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, aimed at allowing Warsh to influence monetary policy communication during Powell's remaining term, thereby reducing Powell's influence [2] Group 2 - Warsh criticizes Powell's Fed for being overly concerned about potential inflation from tariffs, claiming that the inflationary impact of tariffs is likely to be temporary rather than persistent [3] - He asserts that if the Fed were a credible central bank, it could disregard one-time price changes, and he views the Fed's hesitance to cut rates as a blemish on its credibility [3] - Warsh supports Trump's public pressure on the Fed's monetary policy, indicating that the current hesitation among policymakers to lower rates is eroding the Fed's credibility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The perception that the Federal Reserve operates independently of political pressure is described as a "false proposition," suggesting that market expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a continued rise in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - As the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell approaches its end, investors are expected to focus on the policies of the next Fed chair [1] - Market volatility is anticipated to increase due to uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain long positions in the S&P 500 index and the VIX index, betting on increased allocations to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed "crucial" by Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Warsh emphasizes the importance of independent operation in monetary policy execution, indicating that historical evidence supports this view [1] - Despite advocating for the independence of the Federal Reserve, Warsh notes that this does not imply complete independence in all matters [1] - Warsh, who served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, consistently supported hawkish interest rate policies aimed at addressing inflation risks; however, he now advocates for interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's stance [1] - President Trump is considering nominations for Warsh's potential successor after Chairman Powell's term ends in May of next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest UK employment data indicates a softening labor market, but it is not severe enough to prompt the Bank of England to make substantial adjustments to interest rate forecasts [1] Employment Data Summary - The unemployment rate increased from 4.6% to 4.7% [1] - The number of employed individuals reported by HMRC decreased by 41,000 [1] - Previous months' employment data was revised from a loss of 109,000 to a loss of 25,000, which is a notable improvement [1] Currency Impact Summary - The trend of weak data is likely to continue exerting pressure on the British pound [1] - Short positions on the pound are expected to remain dominant, particularly against the euro [1] - The decline in the euro/pound exchange rate may be limited, as the path of least resistance appears to favor upward movement [1]