Group 1 - Palm oil futures have shown a strong upward trend in early trading, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] - Factors contributing to this strength include market dynamics that allow bulls to overlook the negative impact of increased production [1]

化工日报 | 2025-05-20 出库率回升，青岛港口库存小幅下降 橡胶观点 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15005元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。NR主力合约12885元/吨，较前一日变动+155 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨， 较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1800美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1740美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价12400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：据隆众了解，目前仍有部分轮胎企业未恢复至节前的常规水平，预计进入中下旬，企业产能利用 率继续恢复性提升压力较大，5月20日起欧盟将发起"双反"调查，出口压力增加，国内市场消费低迷、价格战持续， 虽能刺激部分需求，但整体销售仍不乐观。 隆众资讯5月19日报道：菏泽科信化工有限公司8万吨/年镍系高顺顺丁橡胶装置降负运行；锦州石化3万吨/年高顺 顺丁橡 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-20 山东下游采购价上调，烧碱盘面震荡上行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4959元/吨（+12）；华东基差-129元/吨（-12）;华南基差-79元/吨（-12）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4880元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-658元/吨（+47）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-526元/吨（+126）；PVC出口利润-0.2美元/吨（+9.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.6万吨（-2.0）；PVC社会库存39.7万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量63.2万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2586元/吨（+51）；山东32%液碱基差39元/吨（-20）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+ ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-05-20 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求欠佳，市场弱势运行 市场分析 1、\t5月19日地区价格：山东市场，4420—4540；东北市场，4200—4360；华北市场，4500—4805；华东市场， 4700—4980；沿江市场，4820—5100；西北市场，4500—4700；华南市场，4800—4950。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年6月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷625美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷575美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4950元/吨，涨39元/吨，丁烷4554元/吨，涨39元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年6月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷621美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷571美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4918元/吨，涨38元/吨，丁烷4522元/吨，涨38元/吨。。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 国内LPG市场心态回暖有限，下游保持观望，寻求行情支点，市场心态暂未完全复苏。就基本面而言，当前市场 继续承压运行。一方面，下游燃烧与化工需求表现疲软，PDH装置 ...

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 123,660 yuan/ton and closed at 123,850 yuan/ton, a -0.67% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,247 lots, and the open interest was 57,470 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel oscillated at a high level in the morning and declined from the high in the afternoon, closing with a small positive line. The trading volume of the 06 main contract shrank compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a possible short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence near 126,400 before the May Day holiday and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after the May Day holiday on the 60 - minute line. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan Nickel was lowered by 1,175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally average, and the premium and discount increased slightly compared with the previous trading day and remained stable recently. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,471 (-30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 202,008 (6786) tons [2]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell on rallies for hedging. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 13,005 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 89,358 lots, and the open interest was 125,759 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel followed the nickel futures to oscillate, closing with a doji negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract shrank compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was almost the same. The red column area of the daily MACD failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day in the morning, but the market trading support was insufficient, and market confidence was still low. The weakening of the afternoon session led most spot merchants to lower the price by 50 yuan/ton to promote sales. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically the same as the previous trading day, and the transaction price of a steel mill in South China was mostly at 940 yuan/nickel (delivered at the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,275 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,225 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 345 - 545 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron including tax changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 944.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell on rallies for hedging. For single - side trading, it is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-20 苯乙烯港口库存延续下降 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差246元/吨（-43元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润484元/吨（+97元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存52100吨（-4600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存36900吨（-8000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率71.3%（-0.9%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润205元/吨（-74元/吨），PS生产利润-295元/吨（-124元/吨），ABS生产利润47元/吨（-350 元/吨）。EPS开工率62.34%（+14.96%），PS开工率57.10%（+0.80%），ABS开工率67.39%（-1.61%），下游开工季 节性低位。 市场分析 恒力苯乙烯装置故障检修一个月，后续仍有浙石化检修；周一苯乙烯港口库存再度进一步下降，港口流动性偏紧， 港口基差坚挺。PS及ABS成品库存持续去化，但仍需等待生产利润好转。上游原料方面，中美关税放缓的利好服 装及冰箱90天抢出口美国预期，前期低开工的CPL及苯胺有需求回升空间，但实际提负仍慢，CPL及PA6、MDI库 存压力有所缓解，锦纶库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - LPG: Oscillating [1] - L: Oscillating [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with views ranging from bullish, bearish, to oscillating, based on various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost - profit situations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.27%, Brent up 0.20%, and SC up 0.07% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors and macro - economic factors are in a tug - of - war. Supply is affected by Russian export policies and global supply forecasts, while demand has stable growth. Inventory data shows changes in US commercial and strategic reserves [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to factors like trade wars and OPEC+ expansion. Short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, oscillating. SC to focus on [455 - 475] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 19, the PG main contract closed at 4264 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices rebounded, but LPG fundamentals are bearish. Import costs decreased, downstream PDH开工率 declined, and port inventories increased. As of May 19, the number of warehouse receipts increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, it is bearish as it is linked to upstream crude oil. Technically, pay attention to the strong support at 4200, and it will oscillate weakly. Hold short positions. PG to focus on [4240 - 4275] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the cost support from crude oil may weaken. Supply pressure remains due to high social inventories despite upcoming device maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, but export orders may improve. In May, device maintenance and short - term export replenishment will lead to oscillating prices, while the high - production cycle will limit upward space in the medium term [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Policy support exists, but the market is constrained by supply - demand imbalance. In May, there are fewer device maintenance plans and new device launches, and demand is in the off - season. The market will be weakly sorted [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Supply is expected to remain high, demand is in the off - season, and there is uncertainty in foreign trade policies. Warehouse receipts increased, real - estate data is weak, and device restarts may increase production. The market will oscillate weakly [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Be aware of macro - systemic risks [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton (-18) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance plans have reduced supply pressure. However, PTA device maintenance has weakened demand. Although inventory is high, the fundamentals improved in May, and it will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX to focus on [6660, 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton (-24) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance has reduced supply pressure. Downstream polyester has high operating loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has room to increase. It will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy mentioned other than the price range [21]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton (-3), and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton (-1) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, reducing supply pressure. The expected arrival volume is low. Downstream polyester has high loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased slightly. It will oscillate strongly in the short term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG to focus on [4410, 4500] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price decreased, the decline of the futures price slowed, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: After the central bank's "double - cut" and the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, the real - estate fundamentals weakened in April. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply contraction and demand decline. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is weak. In the short term, it will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and in the medium term, weak fundamentals will limit upward space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG to focus on [1000, 1040] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged, the futures price oscillated weakly, the main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but new capacity expectations will lead to an oversupply situation. Demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. Although some enterprises' export orders increased, the high - inventory and low - demand situation will continue to suppress the market [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA to focus on [1260, 1290] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton (-50), and the main contract 09 closed at 2284 yuan/ton (-36). The basis in East China and ports changed [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as device maintenance is ending and import expectations are being fulfilled. Demand has improved as MTO device开工率 has stopped falling. Social inventory has decreased, but cost support from coal is weak. Overall, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is bearish on rebounds [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA to focus on [2250, 2300] [34]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as maintenance devices are restarting. It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, but industrial demand is neutral, and export growth is fast. Cost fluctuates slightly, and there is bottom support. The export policy is bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to the export quota policy and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle. UR to focus on [1830 - 1880] [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and both supply and demand increased. Bullish factors include rising oil prices, falling social inventory, and increasing开工率 of modified and building asphalt. Bearish factors are high cracking spreads and increasing supply. It will oscillate strongly [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: BU to focus on [3520 - 3565] [1].

农产品日报 | 2025-05-20 养殖端积极出栏，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13685元/吨，较前交易日变动+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1175，较前交易日变动-65；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.90元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1215，较前交易日变动-85；四川 地区外三元生猪价格14.26元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+575，较前交易日变动-125。 据农业农村部监测，5月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.09，比上周五下降0.75个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为114.28，比上周五下降0.89个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.91元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%； 牛肉63.07元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%；羊肉59.06元/公斤，比上周五下降0.7%；鸡蛋7.94元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.4%；白条鸡17.46元/公斤，比上周五上升 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand. The current inventory is at a low level, and the recent inventory accumulation rate is lower than the seasonal average, resulting in limited short - term market pressure. However, with the improvement of some refineries' profits, the asphalt plant operating rate and production have marginally increased. Meanwhile, rainfall in South China in late May will affect the improvement of terminal demand, so there is also certain resistance above the asphalt market, and the industry's acceptance of high - priced resources is still limited [1]. - The strategy for asphalt investment is as follows: the unilateral trend is expected to be volatile; for the inter - period strategy, the previous long position of BU2506 - 2509 (positive spread position) can be taken profit at high prices; there are no strategies for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 19, the closing price of the main BU2506 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,502 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 73,925 lots, down 1,051 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 140,886 lots, up 21,991 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,700 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,450 - 3,600 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,400 - 3,430 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,500 - 3,570 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong decreased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile [2]. - Inter - period: Take profit on the previous long position of BU2506 - 2509 (positive spread position) at high prices [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of oversupply, with weak cost support due to falling lithium ore prices. Despite some recent strengthening in downstream purchasing willingness on the futures market, the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The report recommends short - selling strategies under the current market conditions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2507 opened at 61,800 yuan/ton and closed at 61,180 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 224,064 lots, and the open interest was 335,807 lots, an increase of 7,066 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 566,765 lots, a decrease of 16,660 lots, and the total trading volume decreased by 112,494 lots. The overall speculation degree was 0.5, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 60 lots to 36,684 lots [1]. - According to SMM data, on May 19, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 - 65,100 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,650 - 63,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate is oscillating downward. The falling lithium ore prices have weakened cost support, and with no mine production cuts, the supply is strong. Given limited downstream demand growth, the oversupply situation is hard to change [1]. Strategy - With falling spot prices, declining ore prices, and average consumption growth, and a large number of warehouse receipts registered, the lithium price is hitting new lows under weak macro and fundamental conditions. It is necessary to monitor downstream purchasing volume. - Unilateral strategy: Sell - hedging on price rallies. - Options strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [2].