Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[5] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, with 31 out of 41 industrial categories showing year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 75.6%[5] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion, with added value increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[5] Investment Trends - From January to August, fixed asset investment grew by only 0.5% year-on-year, a decline from 1.6% in the previous period, with real estate being a major drag[5] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth, with notable increases in consumer goods manufacturing (9.0%) and aerospace manufacturing (28.0%)[5] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline, marking the largest monthly drop of the year[6] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in home appliances (14.3%) and furniture (18.6%) despite a slight overall slowdown[6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached over 50%, with August retail sales showing a positive shift to +0.8% from -1.5% in July[6] Market Outlook - The economic recovery momentum is expected to continue, with GDP growth projected to meet the target of around 5% for the year, despite a forecasted slowdown in Q3 compared to Q2[6] - A-shares typically exhibit a "pre-holiday contraction, post-holiday surge" pattern, with over 60% probability of index gains following the National Day holiday[7] Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with short-term credit spreads narrowing while long-term spreads are widening, indicating a mixed market sentiment[7] - The average duration of bank TPL (Total Portfolio Loss) is estimated at 3 years, with projected floating losses of approximately 453 billion yuan for Q3 due to rising long-term bond yields[9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing importance of bond ETFs in the current investment landscape, particularly for bank wealth management companies facing an "asset shortage" and seeking refined investment management tools [1][3]. - The recent launch of the second batch of 14 sci-tech bond ETFs has increased the total number of such products to 24, indicating a significant uptick in market interest and investment [1][2]. - As of September 24, the total scale of the first batch of sci-tech bond ETFs reached 128.57 billion, with several products exceeding 15 billion, showcasing robust demand and growth in this sector [1][2]. Group 2 - Wealth management funds have become a crucial driver of the growth in sci-tech bond ETF scales, with institutions like Xingyin Wealth and Zhaoyin Wealth actively participating in the market [2][3]. - The dual considerations of optimizing asset allocation and enhancing liquidity are key reasons why bank wealth management funds favor bond ETFs, allowing for diversified and efficient investment strategies [3][4]. - Bond ETFs offer superior liquidity compared to other fixed-income assets, with mechanisms such as T+0 trading and the ability to pledge for financing, making them attractive to institutional investors [4][5]. Group 3 - The article warns of potential market volatility due to "coupon-snatching" behavior by institutions, which may lead to mispricing of component bonds within the ETFs [4][6]. - The rapid influx of new capital into credit bond ETFs has created a "snatching" phenomenon, where institutions preemptively purchase related component bonds, leading to increased trading activity and turnover rates [5][6]. - Analysts caution about the re-pricing risks associated with component bonds of sci-tech bond ETFs, particularly in a volatile market environment where large sell-offs could exacerbate losses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation is likely to continue shifting towards gold due to various economic factors and geopolitical tensions, with expectations of further liquidity easing in the U.S. market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures indicates that Powell's remarks suggest a tight monetary policy, interpreted by the market as opening space for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [1]. - The latest PMI data points to resilience in the U.S. economy, which may alleviate concerns about economic slowdown, although profit-taking is observed near historical highs in precious metals [1]. - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is increasing, driven by ongoing conflicts between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, which is reigniting upward momentum in gold prices [4]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Scotiabank forecasts that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce next year under optimistic conditions, with a near-term target of $3,800 and support levels at $3,650 and $3,550 [4]. - Jefferies' Christopher Wood predicts that gold prices could touch $6,600 per ounce, based on historical bull markets and U.S. disposable income analysis, indicating a potential increase of over 76% from current levels [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The recent U.S. PPI data falling below expectations supports the notion of Federal Reserve easing, with market expectations fully pricing in rate cuts starting in September and three cuts within the year [2]. - Political uncertainties, including the collapse of the French government and the resignation of Japan's Prime Minister, are heightening risk aversion, benefiting gold prices [2][4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance - Major Asset Morning Report - Report Date: September 24, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on September 23, 2025, including 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, credit bond indices, stock index futures trading data, and government bond futures trading data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Asset Market Performance - Bond Yields - **10 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.107%, 4.679%, 3.563% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.041 (US) to 0.004 (France), with weekly changes from - 0.030 (Switzerland) to 0.078 (US), monthly changes from - 0.155 (US) to 0.065 (France), and annual changes from - 0.220 (Switzerland) to 0.912 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570%, 3.950%, 2.019% respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.000 (US, Japan) to 0.011 (South Korea), with weekly changes from - 0.014 (China 1Y) to 0.058 (Japan), monthly changes from - 0.012 (UK) to 0.084 (Germany), and annual changes from - 0.432 (South Korea) to 0.544 (Japan) [2]. 3.2 Global Asset Market Performance - Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Major Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On September 23, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.282, 17.245 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.99% (Brazil) to 0.24% (South Korean won), with weekly changes from - 0.54% (South African rand) to 1.09% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 2.75% (Brazil) to 0.05% (South Korean won), and annual changes from - 5.07% (Brazil) to 4.58% (South Korean won) [2]. - **Renminbi**: On September 23, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and the central parity rate were 7.113, 7.113, 7.106 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.07% respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.02%, 0.12%, 0.04% respectively, monthly changes of - 0.55%, - 0.56%, - 0.18% respectively, and annual changes of 0.23%, 0.18%, 0.04% respectively [2]. 3.3 Global Asset Market Performance - Stock Indices - **Major Economy Stock Indices**: On September 23, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6656.920, 46292.780, 22573.470 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.95% (NASDAQ) to 0.59% (Mexican stock index), with weekly changes from - 0.03% (Spanish stock index) to 1.21% (German DAX), monthly changes from - 2.24% (German DAX) to 7.29% (Mexican stock index), and annual changes from 5.45% (French CAC) to 31.35% (Spanish stock index) [2]. 3.4 Global Asset Market Performance - Credit Bond Indices - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. ranged from - 0.03% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.40% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index), with weekly changes from - 0.39% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.27% (euro - zone high - yield credit bond index), monthly changes from 0.26% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.61% (US investment - grade credit bond index), and annual changes from 3.66% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.30% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index) [2][3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3821.83, 4519.78, 2919.51 respectively, with changes of - 0.18%, - 0.06%, - 0.09% respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.01, 11.64, 34.17 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.07, - 0.25 respectively [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of the fund flow of A - shares, the main board, and small - and medium - sized enterprise boards were - 1566.78, - 1050.60, etc., with 5 - day average values of - 1037.14, - 806.14, etc. respectively [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 24943.82, 6805.14, 1689.87 respectively, with环比 changes of 3728.99, 1173.65, 125.86 respectively [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 35.98, 5.49, - 240.11 respectively, with premiums/discounts of - 0.80%, 0.19%, - 3.34% respectively [4]. 3.6 Government Bond Futures Trading Data - **Government Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.715, 105.625, 107.385, 105.505 respectively, with changes of 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.09% respectively [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4619%, 1.5218%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 7.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of the Permanent Portfolio proposed by Harry Browne, which consists of 25% stocks, 25% long-term government bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash, and questions its viability in the current high valuation environment of these asset classes [1][7]. Investment Portfolio Analysis - The expected return of the Permanent Portfolio may only be around 5%, with potential losses in unfavorable years, as stocks are the primary source of returns, and their contribution is limited due to the 25% allocation [1]. - Concerns are raised about the long-term performance of gold, long-term government bonds, and cash, questioning the ability to hold these assets without significant returns or facing purchasing power erosion [1][5]. Alternative Portfolio Suggestions - Some investors suggest adjusting the asset allocation, increasing equity exposure to 50% while considering the realities of the Chinese stock market, and replacing ordinary stocks with convertible bonds or stocks with cash options to mitigate risks during bear markets [4]. - The idea of not maintaining a fixed cash allocation is proposed, allowing for opportunistic adjustments based on market conditions [5]. Personalization of Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of personalizing investment strategies rather than strictly adhering to Browne's model, suggesting that investors can adapt the framework to include commodities, digital currencies, and internal asset rotation [8]. - It highlights the potential for leveraging strategies using futures and options to enhance returns while maintaining a diversified portfolio [8]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while Browne's framework provides a foundational approach to asset allocation, investors should feel free to modify it according to their risk tolerance, market conditions, and investment goals [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise of A-shares above 3800 points presents an opportunity for investors to reassess their portfolios, emphasizing the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate market volatility and potential downturns [4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Performance - Despite the current bullish market sentiment and many funds reaching historical highs, a significant number of investors redeemed their holdings before the market's upswing, leading to missed opportunities [6]. - Data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the net subscription scale of equity funds has continuously shrunk, with net redemptions peaking in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2024 [6]. Group 2: Volatility and Historical Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% since its inception in 1990, but it also has an annualized volatility of 43.71%, which is significantly higher than many global indices [10][11]. - Since 2014, the annual maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 and equity fund indices has exceeded 15% in about 60% of the years, highlighting the challenges of long-term holding for domestic investors [12]. Group 3: Timing Strategies and Their Challenges - The desire to time the market is common among investors, but the reality often leads to missed opportunities, as evidenced by the significant drop in annualized returns when missing the best-performing days [16][18]. - From 2014 to the present, maintaining a position in equity funds yields an average annual return of around 15%, but missing the top-performing days drastically reduces this return [16][18]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - Given the high volatility of the A-share market, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance returns [22]. - Different asset classes exhibit varying risk-return characteristics, and combining low or negatively correlated assets can help reduce overall portfolio volatility [22][24]. Group 5: Simulation of Asset Allocation - Simulations show that adjusting the asset allocation to include dividend stocks and global indices can lead to smoother net value curves and reduced drawdowns during market downturns [30][32]. - Incorporating bonds into the asset mix further stabilizes the portfolio, increasing the likelihood of maintaining positions during market fluctuations [35][37]. Group 6: Importance of Diversification - Diversification in asset allocation is emphasized as a crucial strategy for investors, with notable figures in finance advocating for a mix of uncorrelated return streams to enhance portfolio performance [38].

Core Viewpoint - The forum "Investment for Good" focused on ESG investment, asset management of university foundations, and asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between asset management institutions and university foundations to foster long-term growth and value creation [1][2]. Group 1: ESG Investment - ESG investment is recognized as a crucial force for promoting economic, environmental, and social development, representing an innovative investment philosophy and a deep exploration of future development models [3]. - The establishment of a comprehensive ESG product system in fixed income and the creation of multi-asset and equity products highlight the commitment of financial institutions to ESG investment [3]. Group 2: University Foundations - University foundations are transitioning from direct investments to enhanced external cooperation and resource sharing, indicating a shift towards diversified asset allocation and systematic decision-making in investment strategies [2]. - The characteristics of university foundation investments include long-term focus, low-risk preference, and liquidity constraints, which necessitate a tailored approach to investment management [2]. Group 3: Collaboration and Innovation - The collaboration between asset management firms and university foundations aims to deepen understanding and cooperation, fostering a supportive environment for professional management and investment growth [1][2]. - The discussions highlighted the need for strategic support and the establishment of error tolerance mechanisms to drive innovation in investment practices within university foundations [2].

Report Information - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Global Asset Market Performance and Futures Trading Data Report Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.148, 4.712, 3.559 respectively. The latest changes were 0.020, - 0.002, 0.006; weekly changes were 0.109, 0.080, 0.081; monthly changes were - 0.128, 0.021, 0.050; and annual changes were 0.473, 0.931, 0.710 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570, 3.976, 2.014 respectively. The latest changes were 0.050, 0.000, - 0.005; weekly changes were 0.050, 0.028, - 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.020, 0.038, 0.045; and annual changes were - 0.020, 0.161, - 0.206 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 22, 2025, the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc. were 5.335, 17.326, 1391.250 respectively. The latest changes were 0.21%, - 0.10%, - 0.43%; weekly changes were 0.35%, - 0.19%, 0.36%; monthly changes were - 1.41%, - 1.60%, 0.05%; and annual changes were - 5.16%, - 2.67%, 3.67% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. were 6693.750, 46381.540, 22788.980 respectively. The latest changes were 0.44%, 0.14%, 0.70%; weekly changes were 1.19%, 1.09%, 1.97%; monthly changes were 3.95%, 2.43%, 6.25%; and annual changes were 19.62%, 12.86%, 29.71% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.16%, 0.06%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.53%, - 0.03%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.47%, 0.43%, etc.; and annual changes were 3.74%, 4.30%, etc. [3][4] Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3828.58, 4522.61, 2922.18 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.22%, 0.46%, 0.43%. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.97, 11.57, etc., with环比 changes of 0.01, - 0.01, etc. The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were - 336.93, - 447.76, etc. The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 21214.83, 5631.49, etc., with环比 changes of - 2023.46, - 407.38, etc. The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 38.61, 0.82, - 211.93, with amplitudes of - 0.85%, 0.03%, - 2.93% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.975, 105.770, 107.620, 105.640 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4749%, 1.5262%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 5.00, 1.00, 0.00 BP [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From September 15th to September 19th, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September FOMC meeting, and China and the US held economic and trade talks in Spain. The US stock market rose for the week, while the bond market and commodities declined. In China, the year-on-year growth rates of industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods in August were lower than market expectations. The stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities fluctuated. After the Fed's FOMC meeting, the short - term market entered a rest period, and future market trends depend on the performance of macro - economic data at home and abroad [3][6][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market and Commodities Fall - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Most major global stock markets rose. US stocks had the highest gains, emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.09% in the past week, and the NASDAQ Composite Index led the gains in the US [8]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond increased by 8BP to 4.14% for the week. The bond market declined, and globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds. The global bond index fell 0.07% for the week [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The US dollar index fluctuated slightly higher for the week, with a 0.03% increase. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar had mixed performance, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [14]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: International gold prices rose for the week, but lacked continuous upward momentum. International oil prices declined, and the prices of major industrial products and agricultural products generally fell [17]. 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market and Commodities Fluctuated - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: The major broad - based A - share indexes showed divergent trends. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style was more resilient. The power equipment and new energy, and coal sectors led the gains, while the banking and non - ferrous metals sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% for the week [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 5923 billion yuan. The bond market fluctuated strongly. Overall, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index rose 0.05% for the week [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market rose slightly for the week. Among major commodity sectors, energy led the gains, while soft commodities performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 0.24% for the week [23][24]. 3. Major Asset Price Outlook - After the Fed's FOMC meeting, the short - term market entered a rest period. Future market trends require attention to the performance of domestic and international macro - economic data [3][27].

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is characterized by a new economic cycle, with significant shifts in macroeconomic analysis, particularly the need to focus on country-specific dynamics rather than solely on the US economy [2][25]. Group 1: Major Challenges in Asset Allocation - The first challenge is the misalignment of global economic cycles, where non-US developed countries' monetary policies diverge significantly from the US, influenced by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [23][24]. - The second challenge is the decline in long-duration risk returns, driven by prolonged monetary easing in the US and increased demand for long-term bonds in China due to economic transformation and aging demographics [26][27]. - The third challenge is the simultaneous volatility of stocks and bonds in overseas markets, necessitating a greater allocation to counter-cyclical assets like gold for risk hedging [29]. Group 2: Insights on Major Asset Classes - For US dollar assets, there is potential for short-term rebounds due to economic soft landing expectations, but long-term attractiveness may diminish due to debt monetization and rising credit risks [30]. - Chinese yuan assets are expected to appreciate in the short term due to improved economic momentum and foreign capital inflows, with long-term growth potential linked to the rising importance of physical assets [30]. - The outlook for bonds remains uncertain, with US Treasury yields expected to steepen while the long-term trajectory for Chinese bonds is influenced by demographic pressures and economic structural changes [30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Trends - The investment strategy for cyclical stocks involves a speculative approach based on commodity price movements, which carries high risks due to the assumption of uniformity among companies within the sector [21]. - A more strategic approach involves selecting stocks with high price and income elasticity based on demand expansion trends, particularly in sectors like new energy and lightweight materials [21]. - Value-based strategies focus on identifying buying opportunities in cyclical stocks by analyzing asset elasticity, valuation levels, and demand signals [22]. Group 4: Performance of Managed Funds - The managed funds by the manager have shown significant performance, with the flagship fund achieving a return of 32.9% year-to-date and a cumulative return of 705.37% since inception [2][3]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes a balanced strategy, focusing on high-quality companies and growth stocks, with a high concentration in top holdings [4][6]. - Recent adjustments in the portfolio include increased allocations to semiconductor and biopharmaceutical sectors, reflecting a proactive approach to market trends [7][14].