Domestic Economic Indicators - September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports at $328.57 billion (up 8.3% YoY) and imports at $238.12 billion (up 7.4% YoY), resulting in a trade surplus of $90.45 billion[16] - Fiscal spending showed an increase compared to the previous month, indicating a more robust fiscal policy[2] - Economic growth has slowed since Q3, but there is no acceleration in the downturn compared to the same period last year[2] Policy and Market Outlook - Two growth-stabilizing policies have been implemented, including a new financial policy tool of ¥500 billion and a ¥500 billion limit on local government debt, suggesting a temporary observation phase for policy effects[2][14] - The market is expected to enter a period of policy effect observation for the next 1-2 months, with a reduced likelihood of further stimulus[14] U.S. Economic Developments - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated an increased risk of job market downturns, suggesting continued interest rate cuts in October and a potential end to the balance sheet reduction[15] - Concerns over regional bank credit quality have emerged, primarily due to bad debts, but these risks are not currently systemic[15] Asset Market Performance - A-shares may have entered a left-side market phase but have not yet reached the right side, indicating a need for patience[3] - The market's profitability this year has largely stemmed from the Fed's rate cuts and a weaker dollar, with liquidity expansion now constrained by reduced future rate cut expectations[3][15] Monetary and Liquidity Trends - The overall liquidity environment remains loose, with a benchmark interest rate decline of approximately 1.58 basis points this week[4] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank repo market increased by about ¥20.42 trillion compared to the previous week[21] Government Debt and Financing - The net repayment of government bonds was ¥102.5 billion, with a planned issuance of ¥880.23 billion for the upcoming week, significantly higher than the previous week's ¥308.3 billion[22] Currency and Commodity Movements - The onshore RMB appreciated slightly, with the average exchange rate rising by 0.1224% to 7.0988 against the USD[24] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a significant decline[36]

Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 84.3%, which is 3.0 and 7.5 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.0 percentage points to 70.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than 2024 but 2.5 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 35.2%, which is 6.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 9.9 percentage points lower than 2019[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 cities fell by 1.1% month-on-month, reaching a new low for the same period in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 26.6%[3] - The average weekly land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 54.2% month-on-month, marking a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% and a 49.5% drop compared to 2019[3] - Steel apparent demand decreased by 8.7% month-on-month, remaining at the lowest level for the same period in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 4.4%[3] Prices - The Nanhua Industrial Product Index fell by 2.3% month-on-month, with Brent crude oil prices decreasing by 5.5% and a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[6] - Pork prices dropped by 5.1% to approximately 18.4 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 26.2%[6] - Cement price index decreased by 1.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 18.0%[6] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month but remains at a high level compared to recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8%[7] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 4.0% respectively, although still at low levels compared to recent years[7] - Asphalt inventory rose by 3.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%[7] Liquidity - The total issuance of bonds in the past half month reached 737.52 billion CNY, with government bonds accounting for 506.5 billion CNY, an increase of 258.97 billion CNY from the previous period[10] - The central bank's net absorption through open market operations was 18.742 billion CNY, leading to a decline in money market interest rates[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals include the suspension of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine due to an accident, exacerbating the shortage of copper mines, with negative processing fees (TC) and raw - material - constrained smelting capacity; the opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and a weaker US dollar, boosting copper prices with loose liquidity expectations; Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing market panic and suppressing risk appetite; and the decline in spot premiums, with downstream buyers being cautious due to high prices and weaker - than - expected post - holiday restocking [4]. - The view is that Shanghai copper will fluctuate at a high level, with both supply and demand being weak but having strong support. The shortage at the mine end and macro - level positives support the price, while trade risks and demand limit the upside. Short - term fluctuations will intensify [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Copper Futures盘面Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 84,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.77%, a position of 215,573 lots (down 542 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 121,050 lots [6]. - The latest price of the Shanghai copper index - weighted is 84,341 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, a position of 546,240 lots (down 18,430 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 255,805 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 74,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.85%, a position of 4,498 lots (down 311 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 8,239 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 10,624 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%, a position of 239,014 lots (down 38,282 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 19,917 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 498.35 dollars, with a weekly decline of 3.04%, a position of 135,104 lots (down 8,882 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 41,836 lots [6]. b. Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 84,775 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,905 yuan and a decline rate of 2.2% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 84,835 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,840 yuan and a decline rate of 2.12% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 84,910 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,780 yuan and a decline rate of 2.05% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 84,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,830 yuan and a decline rate of 2.11% [11]. - The Shanghai Non - ferrous premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 175% [11]. - The Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 45 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 200% [11]. - The Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1000% [11]. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium is 115 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 130% [11]. - The LME copper (spot/3 - month) premium is - 11.16 dollars/ton, up 13.74 dollars week - on - week, with a decline rate of 55.18% [11]. - The LME copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 127.75 dollars/ton, up 33.58 dollars week - on - week, with a growth rate of 35.66% [11]. c. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The copper import profit and loss is - 1,122.08 yuan/ton, up 44.79 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 3.84% [12]. - The copper concentrate TC is - 40.7 dollars/ton, with no change week - on - week [12]. - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0548, down 0.0566 week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.38% [12]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 2,995.96 yuan/ton, down 503.08 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 14.38% [12]. d. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 42,849 tons, up 12,885 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 43% [17]. - The total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,518 tons, up 7,425 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 104.68% [17]. - The Shanghai copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.5% [17]. - The LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 129,900 tons, down 1,150 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 0.88% [17]. - The LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 7,550 tons, down 875 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 10.39% [20]. - The LME copper inventory is 137,450 tons, down 2,025 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.45% [20]. - The COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 153,604 tons, up 1,167 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.77% [20]. - The COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 191,048 tons, up 5,326 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.87% [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory is 344,652 tons, up 6,493 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.92% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 50.9 million tons, up 2.9 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 6.04% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.04% [20]. e. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the cumulative production was 9.891 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative production was 16.598 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. f. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 65.23%, up 2.21 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.85 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 25.37%, up 0.56 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.53 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper plates and strips was 66.24%, up 1.52 percentage points month - on - month and down 6.95 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 50.9%, up 1.04 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.52 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 59.44%, down 3.11 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.58 percentage points year - on - year [25]. g. Copper Element Import (Monthly) - In September 2025, the import of copper concentrates was 2.586873 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 22.663614 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of anode copper was 61,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 18%, and the cumulative import was 528,637 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import was 2,206,092 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In September 2025, the import of copper products was 485,105.381 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative import was 4,018,617.9 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29].

Market Overview - On October 16, 2025, A-share's three major indexes showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.10% to 3916.23, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25% to 13086.41, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.38% to 3037.44. The trading volume of the two markets dropped below 2 trillion to 1931.1 billion, a decrease of 141.7 billion from the previous day [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on October 16, closing at 4618.42, up 12.13 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coke and Coking Coal - On October 16, the weighted coke index fluctuated widely, closing at 1696.3, up 38.5 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1201.3 yuan, up 40.8 from the previous day [3][4] - Coke: The loss situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the enthusiasm for starting work has recovered. The daily average pig iron output of sample steel mills has slightly declined, but the absolute level remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are consuming raw material inventories and mainly purchasing on - demand [5] - Coking coal: After the long holiday, coal mine production has recovered. Most mines are operating normally. The import volume through the China - Mongolia freight customs clearance port is stable at a high level. The profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, and the iron output of steel mills remains at a high level [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Thursday due to bottom - fishing buying. Brazil is expected to have a 2025 sugarcane planting area of 9.355219 million hectares, an increase of 1.5% from the previous month's forecast, and a sugarcane output of 695.532937 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous year [5] Rubber - Affected by the optimistic expectation of US interest rate cuts, the Shanghai rubber market rebounded on Thursday. The prediction of tire prices by Chinese tire dealers in October shows that the proportion of those bearish on prices has increased [6] Palm Oil - On October 16, the palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly within the range. From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output all increased compared to the same period last month [6][8] Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher on October 16. The US soybean crushing volume in September was higher than expected. Brazil is expected to increase its 2025/2026 soybean planting area by 3.6% from the previous month and 0.1% from last year, with an output increase of 14.4% from the previous year. Domestically, the soybean meal futures weakened on October 16. The soybean crushing volume in September was about 9.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.5 million tons in October. The soybean meal inventory remains above 1 million tons, and the supply is loose [9] Live Pigs - On October 16, the live pig futures closed lower. In October, the supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and the consumption after the festival has declined. The short - term market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [10] Shanghai Copper - The strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the global shortage of copper ore supply support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the US government shutdown have disturbed the market sentiment. The price may fluctuate within a range [10] Iron Ore - On October 16, the iron ore 2601 contract closed lower. The iron ore shipment volume continued to decline slightly, the domestic arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [11] Asphalt - On October 16, the asphalt 2511 contract closed higher. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded. However, due to capital and weather factors, the demand improvement is limited, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [11] Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13340 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 49 lots compared to the previous day. The machine - picked cotton price is 6 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram, and the short - fiber price has fallen. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is faster than in previous years [11] Logs - On October 16, the log futures price fell below the 800 - yuan mark. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually destocking [11][12] Steel - On October 16, the steel prices fell weakly. Some steel mills have arranged maintenance and production cuts. In the short term, the steel price may be adjusted narrowly, and the decline may slow down [12] Alumina - On October 16, the alumina futures price closed at 2790 yuan/ton. The overseas bauxite supply is stable and loose, the domestic supply has not triggered large - scale production cuts, and the inventory is rising. The consumption in the northwest may be boosted by winter storage, but the overall market trading atmosphere is dull [13] Shanghai Aluminum - On October 16, the Shanghai aluminum futures price closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The supply of aluminum ingots is tightening, the inventory is at a historical low, and the downstream consumption in the peak season is strong. The aluminum price will continue to be strong in the short term [13]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Forecasts - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, exceeding expectations, with third-quarter GDP growth forecasted at 4.8% [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its 4.8% growth forecast for China, despite global economic challenges [2] - Economic indicators suggest a potential decline in GDP growth to 4.9% in the third quarter due to slowing investment and consumption [2] Group 2: Industrial Production and Demand - Industrial production showed resilience in September, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, indicating slight improvement [3] - Predictions for September's industrial value-added growth are around 5.1%, slightly lower than the previous month [3] - Net exports are expected to support economic growth, while domestic demand continues to slow [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Spending Trends - The forecast for September's retail sales growth is 3.1%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, influenced by subsidy policy changes [4] - Significant growth in consumer electronics sales was noted, with home appliance sales up 48.3% year-on-year [5] - The automotive sector remains a major contributor to retail sales, with production and sales figures showing strong growth [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is predicted to be flat at 0% for September, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [6] - Investment growth across major categories is expected to decline, with infrastructure investment remaining under pressure [6] - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with significant declines in land transaction values [6] Group 5: Policy Measures and Economic Support - The necessity for timely policy adjustments has increased, with expectations for enhanced fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [7] - New policy tools totaling 500 billion yuan are aimed at supporting manufacturing and infrastructure investment [8] - The government is focusing on targeted monetary policies to stimulate consumption and support key sectors [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].

Transportation Economic Operation in August - In August, the overall transportation economic operation continued to show a recovery trend, with stable growth in freight volume and cross-regional personnel flow, and a rapid increase in port cargo throughput [7] - The completed operating freight volume in August reached 5.06 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with road freight volume at 3.75 billion tons (up 3.9%) and waterway freight volume at 0.85 billion tons (up 1.2%) [7] - The port cargo throughput in August was 1.59 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with container throughput at 31.49 million TEUs, up 6.5% [5] Foreign Trade Performance in the First Three Quarters - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade import and export reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with exports at 19.95 trillion yuan (up 7.1%) and imports at 13.66 trillion yuan (down 0.2%) [11] - The growth rate of imports and exports accelerated quarterly, with the third quarter showing a growth of 6%, marking eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth [12] - The diversification of markets continued, with trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reaching 17.37 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, accounting for 51.7% of total trade [12] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban prices down 0.2% and rural prices down 0.5% [14] - Food prices fell by 4.4%, while non-food prices increased by 0.7%, leading to an average CPI decline of 0.1% from January to September [15] - The prices of various goods and services showed mixed trends, with fresh vegetable prices down 13.7% and pork prices down 17.0%, impacting the CPI significantly [16] Industrial Producer Price Trends - In September 2025, the industrial producer ex-factory price decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [20] - The average industrial producer ex-factory price from January to September fell by 2.8%, with the purchase price down by 3.2% [20] - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.4%, with mining industry prices down 9.0% and raw material industry prices down 2.9% [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight improvement in CPI and PPI, with CPI at -0.3% year-on-year and PPI at -2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a better economic outlook compared to previous months [1][5][10] - CPI shows a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with consumer goods prices rising by 0.3%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [6][10] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has improved for five consecutive months, reaching 1.0% year-on-year, the first time it has crossed 1% since March 2024 [6][10] Group 2 - Key details from CPI include a continued decline in pork prices at -0.7% month-on-month, and a notable increase in gold jewelry prices, which rose by 6.5% month-on-month and 42.1% year-on-year [2][7] - Rental prices have shown stability with zero growth for two consecutive months, while household appliances have seen a month-on-month increase of 0.6% for three consecutive months [2][6] - Medical service prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in September [2][6] Group 3 - PPI has not turned positive in September but has shown zero growth for two consecutive months, an improvement from the previous eight months of negative growth [3][10] - The mining sector has contributed positively to PPI, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, while durable consumer goods, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector, have seen a month-on-month decline of -0.5% [3][10][13] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in the automotive manufacturing sector has expanded to -3.0%, indicating potential pressures on corporate profits and economic pricing [3][13] Group 4 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a potential stabilization in economic activity, supported by increased project investments and stable domestic demand [4][14] - Despite external pressures such as fluctuating oil prices and tariff disturbances, the domestic liquidity remains adequate, contributing to a stable economic environment [4][14] - Historical data indicates that external tariff disturbances have had limited impact on certain asset classes, emphasizing the importance of intrinsic asset safety margins [4][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August 2025, economic data generally declined and fell short of expectations, with economic growth slowing slightly. It is expected that in September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods may further decline slightly, while investment growth is expected to stabilize. In the fourth quarter, new incremental macro - policies may be introduced to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [18][19] - China imposed export controls on some raw materials such as rare earths on October 9, 2025. In response, the US announced on October 11 that it would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1, 2025 [3] - The US federal government shut down on October 1, 2025, which will cause direct losses to the US economy and affect the release of economic data [4][48] - In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable and appreciating trend. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the RMB will continue the managed floating pattern [57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **Supply (Industrial Added Value)**: In August 2025, the year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to August was 6.2%. The growth rate of industrial production slowed down [18] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and new construction area were negative, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market [12][18] - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment was 0.5%. Affected by factors such as the observation period of current policies and the real estate adjustment, the investment growth rate declined at a low level [18][19] - **Demand (Social Retail Consumption)**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to August was 4.6%. The growth rate of retail sales slowed down, but the growth rate of optional consumer goods outside the trade - in policy accelerated [18][19] - **Business Climate Index**: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was strong, but the new order index increased less than in previous years. The non - manufacturing PMI declined, with the construction industry PMI remaining sluggish and the service industry PMI also falling [5] - **Import and Export Data**: In August 2025, export and import data showed a certain degree of decline. The export amount decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the import amount decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [12] 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In August 2025, the newly added social financing scale was 1434.8 billion yuan. The scale of RMB loans increased, while foreign currency loans, entrusted loans, and trust loans decreased [12] - **Credit Loan Data**: In August 2025, the newly added RMB loans were 1041.1 billion yuan. The newly added loans in the household sector and the corporate sector showed different trends [12] - **Money Supply**: At the end of August 2025, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest value since June 2021 [8] 3.3 Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In August 2025, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while core CPI continued to rise. The prices of gold and platinum jewelry, household appliances, and cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods increased year - on - year [9] - **PPI**: In August 2025, the PPI ended the continuous downward trend of the previous eight months. It was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for the first time since March [9] 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - **US Economy**: The US federal government shut down on October 1, 2025, causing direct losses to the economy and affecting the release of economic data. In August 2025, the CPI and core CPI increased, and the market fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation for the next week [4][48][49] - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the HICP and core HICP of the Eurozone increased slightly. The manufacturing PMI and service industry PMI showed different trends [16] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate appreciated steadily. The trend was driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the support of the domestic economic fundamentals, and the management of market expectations by the central bank [57] - **Exchange Rates**: As of September 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB fluctuated slightly, and the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates were maintained in the range of 7.12 - 7.15, with a cumulative appreciation of about 0.5% compared with the high point in July [57]

四是9月制造业PMI边际改善。国家统计局公布，9月制造业PMI为49.8%，预期值49.6%，前值49.4%， 较往年季节性水平仍偏弱；非制造业PMI为50%，预期值50.2%，前值50.3%。（资料来源：南方基金宏 观策略部整理，过往表现不预示未来） 接下来是国外，美国政府继续关门。自10月1日起，由于国会两党在削减政府开支和边境安全等问题上 的尖锐对立，未能通过一项旨在避免停摆的持续决议案，美国联邦政府正式进入全面停摆。 近期美国不断施压，中国对等反制，中美贸易摩擦再度升温。昨日市场全天震荡回升，三大指数低开高 走。截至收盘，沪指跌0.19%，深成指跌0.93%，创业板指跌1.11%。 债市这边，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.37%，10年期主力合约涨0.10%， 5年期主力合 约涨0.03%。(数据来源：Choice，20251013，指数过往表现不预示未来) 后市怎么看？南南依旧整理了南方基金宏观策略部深度解读观点供大家参考。 01 宏观经济解读 我们先来回顾下国内外宏观基本面。首先是国内维度，一是近期美国不断施压，中方对等反制。自5月 中美日内瓦声明以来，经历多轮贸易谈判，中美贸易摩擦 ...