宏观经济周报 2026 年第二周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数连续第五周扩张，扩张幅度较上周进一步抬升， 显示经济运行稳健向好，内生动能在年末维持韧性。从分项结构看，消费景气 指数回升至荣枯线以上，结束前期短暂回落，表明在促消费政策持续发力、居 民预期边际改善以及年末季节性消费的带动下，消费端复苏趋势延续。投资景 气指数同步回升并重新站上荣枯线，显示企业投资活动在阶段性波动后企稳， 收缩压力进一步缓释。出口景气指数仍处于收缩区间，延续低位运行，反映年 末外需节奏放缓及订单与结算安排的阶段性影响，短期内对总需求形成一定拖 累。生产景气指数保持在扩张区间，虽较前期高点有所回落，但仍对综合景气 形成主要支撑。综合来看，当前景气格局呈现出生产端相对稳健、内需边际修 复、外需偏弱制约的结构特征。年末阶段的波动更多体现为节奏性调整而非趋 势性转弱，随着稳增长政策持续落地及预期逐步改善，经济运行有望在扩张区 间内进一步夯实基础，为 2026 年开局奠定相对稳固的景气起点。 按点如欲查询更多产品资料，请联络工银国际证券有限公司，电话(852) 2683 3888 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 证券研究 宏观经 ...

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased this week, while cement clinker capacity utilization rate improved[1] - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt decreased, while the operating rates for automotive semi-steel and full-steel tires fell[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 33.7% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, a decline of 9.6 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.64% week-on-week as of December 22, 2025[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles in December 2025 were 1.928 million units, down 17% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, 2025, a decrease of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of December 28, 2025, but this was a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The export container shipping price index rose by 2.0% week-on-week, marking the third consecutive week of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.3% this week, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index rose by 0.1%[1] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased by 1% week-on-week, with some prices for fruits and pork rising while vegetable and egg prices fell[1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, achieving stable growth amidst global economic challenges and geopolitical conflicts. The focus is on enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness to support sustained economic recovery as the country enters the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Economic Performance - China's GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, aligning closely with its potential growth rate and significantly improving from a -0.3% output gap in 2024. This positions China as a leader among major global economies, especially as the global economic growth rate is projected at 3.2% for 2025, a slight decline from 2024 [2]. Industrial and Service Sector Resilience - The industrial sector shows strong recovery, with industrial added value growth at 6.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2023 and 0.4 percentage points from 2024. The service sector also performs well, with a 5.4% increase in added value, surpassing 2024's growth by 0.4 percentage points [3]. Risk Management and Economic Stability - Significant progress has been made in risk prevention and resolution, particularly through policies aimed at stabilizing market order and curbing irrational competition. The recovery of consumer and producer price indices has improved corporate profit expectations and market confidence, supporting overall economic stability [3]. Achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan - The year 2025 marks the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with GDP growth contributing over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to creating an economy the size of the Yangtze River Delta. Despite various challenges, the average annual growth rate during this period is approximately 5.5%, contributing about 30% to global economic growth [4]. Policy Recommendations for 2026 - For 2026, it is recommended to set reasonable GDP growth and price targets to signal stability and confidence in economic policies. The aim is to achieve around 5% growth, considering the complexities of the external environment [5][6]. Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness - Emphasis on consolidating the advantages of a complete industrial system is crucial. This includes maintaining a reasonable manufacturing sector proportion, addressing weaknesses in key areas like integrated circuits and high-end instruments, and promoting intelligent, green, and integrated industrial development [7]. Expanding Domestic Demand - Strategies to boost domestic demand should focus on both consumption and investment. This includes enhancing income stability, increasing public investment in education and healthcare, and optimizing the investment structure to support high-quality growth in technology and emerging industries [8]. Coordinated Macroeconomic Policies - The "three policies in one" approach is essential for balancing supply and demand, involving coordinated monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to create a synergistic effect that promotes economic stability and growth [9].

对于2026年看好的投资方向，唐小东重点提到三个板块：一是红利资产。在盈利整体支撑不强的背景 下，分红回报的确定性相对更高。二是以AI为核心的科技板块。尽管存在估值争议，但AI在产业端的 渗透率仍在快速提升，长期趋势明确。三是内需领域。该板块长期被市场忽视，估值已处于低位，从投 资角度具备关注价值。不过，其行情的兑现可能需要一定时间。 唐小东认为，2026年国内经济维持以稳为主、稳中求进的特征，内外需或许有边际小幅波动，但对于整 体宏观经济的实质性影响相对有限。在此背景下，市场预期及博弈、全球地缘政治，以及科技产业发展 可能成为影响市场更重要的变量。 人民财讯1月5日电，南方基金宏观策略部联席总经理唐小东表示，预计2026年国内外宏观经济整体平 稳，但市场波动性可能加剧，难以复现2025年"稳稳的幸福"行情。他建议投资者结合自身风险偏好进行 均衡配置，并关注红利资产、科技及内需板块的结构性机会。 对于A股和港股市场，他预计2026年A股和港股会呈现震荡运行、中枢缓步抬升的特征。判断震荡运行 是因为经济增长对企业盈利支撑力度相对有限，且市场估值已脱离明显低估区间，但判断市场中枢会缓 步抬升是因为市场估值目前处于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the focus on macroeconomic policies in 2026, highlighting the need for increased fiscal support and investment to stimulate economic growth [2][3][5]. Group 2 - Fiscal deficit and government bond issuance are expected to increase, with a projected fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4% and a deficit scale of at least 4.06 trillion yuan [2]. - The new special bonds limit may rise from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction [2]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with a CPI target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [3]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumption, is highlighted as a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6]. - Government investment is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing fixed asset investment growth, with infrastructure investment set to accelerate due to new major projects [7]. - Real estate policies will focus on inventory reduction, with measures to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8][9]. - Capital market reforms will aim to deepen investment and financing reforms, enhancing support for technology innovation and improving market attractiveness [10]. - The construction of a unified national market is set to accelerate, with regulations aimed at reducing "involution" competition and improving market access [11]. - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is emphasized, with a focus on expanding AI applications across various sectors [12][13]. - State-owned enterprise reforms will continue, focusing on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [14]. - Policies aimed at improving income security and social welfare will be prioritized, with a focus on employment and income distribution [15].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and ongoing central bank purchases, despite potential economic fluctuations [1][7][49]. Group 1: 2025 Gold Market Performance - In 2025, gold prices surged over 60%, reaching more than 50 historical highs, primarily due to geopolitical risks, economic uncertainties, and a declining dollar [1][11]. - The short-term price performance model indicates that geopolitical risks and reduced opportunity costs significantly contributed to the price increase [11][19]. Group 2: 2026 Market Scenarios - The World Gold Council outlines four potential scenarios for the 2026 gold market based on macroeconomic trends: stable growth, mild recession, severe recession, and return of inflation [1][20]. - In a mild recession scenario, gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% due to a slowing U.S. economy and increased Fed rate cuts [27]. - In a severe recession scenario, gold prices may increase by 15% to 30% as geopolitical and economic risks escalate [32]. - Conversely, in a return to inflation scenario, gold prices could decline by 5% to 20% if economic policies lead to stronger growth and a stronger dollar [36]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor, especially as emerging markets have low gold reserve ratios compared to developed economies [42][43]. - The supply of recycled gold may decrease if prices rise and economic conditions weaken, potentially supporting gold prices [2][38]. - Investment demand, particularly from gold ETFs, is expected to grow, providing additional upward pressure on gold prices [2][32]. Group 4: Conclusion - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 is shaped by economic uncertainties, with a likelihood of continued volatility similar to 2025 [49][50]. - Despite potential bearish scenarios, gold's role as a diversification and risk-hedging tool remains significant, with central bank purchases and recycled gold supply being key variables [50].

Core Viewpoint - Investors express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a steady and stable development, with expectations for earnings to surpass those of 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The consensus among various brokerages indicates a GDP growth expectation of around 5% for 2026, driven by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [2] - A combination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to support economic stability, with predictions of a 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a potential increase in fiscal deficit rates compared to 2025 [2][3] - The focus of fiscal policy in 2026 will be on new infrastructure, technological innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives, balancing expenditure expansion with risk prevention [3] Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw significant inflows of incremental funds in 2025, with margin financing balances reaching a historical high of 25,552.84 billion yuan, reflecting a robust market liquidity [4][5] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares increased by 25.30 trillion yuan from the beginning of 2025, with total cash dividends reaching a record high of 2.63 trillion yuan [5] Investment Sentiment - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, with institutions optimistic about continued market growth, although the pace of increase may slow [7] - Earnings for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market are projected to recover, with an expected growth rate of around 10% [8] - The market is anticipated to experience a rebalancing of investment styles, driven by the recovery of the real estate cycle and positive signals from companies expanding overseas [8]

Core Viewpoint - Investors express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a stable and upward trend supported by macroeconomic recovery and policy measures [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The consensus among multiple brokerages is a GDP growth forecast of around 5% for 2026, driven by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [2]. - A combination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to be implemented, with a potential decrease in the reserve requirement ratio by approximately 50 basis points and an increase in fiscal deficit rates compared to 2025 [2][3]. - The focus of fiscal policy in 2026 will be on enhancing efficiency in total growth, structural transformation, and deepening reforms, while monetary policy will remain moderately loose [2][3]. Market Performance - In 2025, the A-share market saw significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching over 4000 points and total market capitalization hitting 118.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.30 trillion yuan from the beginning of 2025 [1][3]. - The total margin balance in the A-share market reached a historical high of 25,552.84 billion yuan by the end of 2025, with a financing balance increase of 6,843.80 billion yuan [3][4]. - The A-share market's trading volume in 2025 was 419.84 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 17.3 trillion yuan, both setting historical records [3][4]. Corporate Dividends and Investor Sentiment - The total cash dividends from A-share listed companies reached a record high of 2.63 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating an improving funding ecosystem [4]. - Increased participation from individual investors is expected in 2026, with net inflows projected to reach 1.56 trillion yuan, supporting the upward market trend [4][5]. Earnings Recovery - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the entire A-share market was 22.32 times by the end of 2025, indicating a potential for further valuation recovery in 2026 [5][6]. - A gradual recovery in corporate earnings is anticipated, with non-financial corporate profit growth expected to rebound to around 10% [6]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of balanced performance, driven by structural improvements and the influx of resident capital [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain stable in 2026, but market volatility may increase, making it difficult to replicate the "steady happiness" market of 2025 [1] - The investment strategy suggested includes balancing asset allocation based on individual risk preferences, with a focus on dividend assets, technology, and domestic demand sectors for structural opportunities [1] - The overall economic growth is anticipated to have limited support for corporate earnings, leading to a judgment of a fluctuating market with a gradually rising central tendency [2] Group 2 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to exhibit a pattern of oscillation with a gradual upward trend, as market valuations are currently neutral and not in a bubble [2] - The support logic for market reversal since September 2024 remains solid, with the capital market playing a more crucial role in social financing and long-term funds providing stability against market downturns [2] - Three key investment directions for 2026 are highlighted: dividend assets for higher certainty in returns, AI-focused technology sectors with rapid penetration despite valuation debates, and the undervalued domestic demand sector which may take time to realize its potential [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with an expected fiscal deficit scale of no less than 4.06 trillion yuan, maintaining a deficit rate of at least 4% [3] - The new special bonds limit may increase from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction and real estate market adjustments [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain moderately loose, with a CPI growth target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [4] - Structural monetary policy operations will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [4] Group 3: Consumption and Income Growth - Expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption, is a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6] - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Growth Plan" is anticipated to be implemented, aiming to enhance the income capacity of residents and stimulate consumption [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government investment playing a crucial role in driving this recovery [7] - Infrastructure investment will accelerate with the commencement of new major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market will focus on "de-stocking" as a primary task in 2026, with policies to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market will undergo comprehensive reforms to support technological innovation and improve the market's inclusivity and adaptability [9][10] - Measures will be taken to enhance investor experience and broaden channels for long-term capital investment [10] Group 7: Market Competition and Regulation - Efforts to address "involution" in competition will continue, with new regulations expected to enhance market access and fair competition [11] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is anticipated to provide a framework for market entry and quality standards [11] Group 8: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation will be a key focus, with initiatives to promote AI applications across various sectors [12] - The expansion of international technology innovation centers in major regions will facilitate resource integration and innovation [12] Group 9: State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - A new round of state-owned enterprise reforms will focus on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [13][14] - The reforms will also emphasize strategic mergers and acquisitions to improve resource allocation efficiency [14] Group 10: Social Welfare and Employment - Policies aimed at improving employment and income distribution will be prioritized, with measures to support job retention and increase minimum wage standards [15]