广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

金十数据6月19日讯，高盛资产管理策略师Simon Dangoor在一次媒体圆桌会议上表示，美联储本次公布 利率决定可能会维持"观望"模式。随着市场走高，数据也保持得很好，这是有道理的。他表示，未来几 个月将公布的宏观经济数据很可能成为未来利率决策的主要推动力。 高盛：美联储料将保持观望，数据驱动未来决策 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 张瑜（微信 deany-zhang） 陆银波（15210860866） 报告目录 | PART2:资产观点,量价下的投资展望. | | --- | | 六、权益: 从"量"中寻找确定性 | | (一)自上而下:低波有底, 上行待验 | | (二)自下而上:确定性在四个"量" | | (三)特殊关注: 下半年的宏观大事 | | 七、债券:多股"力量"框定区间 . | | (一)利率区间: 来自央行的"力量" | | (二)利率点位: 来自配置的"力量" …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 45 | | (三)利率节奏: 来自切换的"力量" …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 46 | | 八、汇率: ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year, net sales were $5.5 billion, a marginal increase compared to the prior year, driven by contributions from recent acquisitions [5] - Organic sales for the year were $5.2 billion, down 5.4% on a same-day basis compared to the prior year [6] - Net income for the full year was $115.5 million, including a $42.5 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge [6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $500.9 million, and free cash flow for the year was $336.1 million, representing 67% of adjusted EBITDA [6] - In the fourth quarter, net sales were $1.3 billion, with organic sales declining 8.3% per day [7][17] - Net income for the fourth quarter was $26.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $109.8 million [7][31] - Free cash flow generated during the quarter was $183.4 million, or 167% of adjusted EBITDA, marking the highest level of quarterly free cash flow conversion in the company's history [7][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ceilings saw volume improvement during the quarter, benefiting from the addition of CAMCO and a focus on architectural specialties projects [8][9] - Wallboard sales for the quarter were $526.6 million, down 10.1% year-over-year, with a 12.1% decrease in volume partially offset by a 1% increase in price and mix [21][22] - Steel framing sales were $189.2 million, down 14.2% for the quarter, with volumes down 2.6% and price and mix down 10.2% [25] - Complementary product sales were nearly flat year-over-year, up 1.4% on a per-day basis, representing the twentieth consecutive quarter of per-day growth in this category [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wallboard industry volumes were down 10% in the first calendar quarter, with high interest rates and policy uncertainty being primary impediments to growth [11] - U.S. residential revenues declined 6% per day compared to the prior year, with single-family volumes down 1.9% per day [20][21] - Multifamily revenues fell 32.4% and commercial revenues fell 10.1% on a per-day basis [20] - The company expects to slightly outpace normal seasonal trends in wallboard volumes for the fiscal first quarter [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on four strategic pillars: expanding share in core products, growing complementary products, expanding the platform, and driving improved productivity and profitability [15] - A significant cost savings program has been executed, achieving $25 million in annualized cost savings in the fiscal fourth quarter, totaling $55 million for the year [16][18] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation, balancing stock buybacks with debt reduction while pursuing attractive M&A opportunities [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is cautiously optimistic about nearing the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for recovery tied closely to mortgage rates and the broader macroeconomic environment [10][35] - The company anticipates that pent-up demand will materialize when conditions improve, with expectations for single-family volumes to be flat to slightly up year-over-year for the fiscal first quarter [36] - Management acknowledges the need for market recovery to achieve long-term margin targets of 10% to 12% [62] Other Important Information - The company reduced net debt by more than 10% during the quarter, maintaining a leverage ratio within the target range of 1.5 to 2.5 times [16] - Cash on hand as of April 30 was $55.6 million, with $631.3 million of available liquidity under the revolving credit facility [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the sequential organic trends and why they might improve? - Management noted improvements primarily in the single-family market and share gains with larger customers, contributing to a more positive outlook [44] Question: What technology and efficiency optimization efforts are being implemented? - The company has continued to invest in digital initiatives, including e-commerce and automation, which have contributed to cost reductions and improved efficiencies [48][49] Question: How does the company view the single-family market dynamics and share gains? - Management indicated that they are leveraging scale to support builder partners and have gained share through strong relationships and geographic focus [56][58] Question: What is the expected timeline for seeing start activity flow into shipments? - Typically, there is a three to six-month lead time for production large builder focus, with visibility comfortable for the current quarter [72] Question: How permanent are the recent cost reductions? - Management estimates that about 50% of the cost reductions are permanent, while the other 50% may return with volume recovery [77]

Core Insights - Careem, a subsidiary of Uber, will suspend its ride-hailing services in Pakistan on July 18 due to challenging macroeconomic conditions, increasing competition, and global capital allocation issues [1] Company Summary - Mudassir Sheikha, the co-founder and CEO of Careem, announced the suspension of services in a statement highlighting the difficulties faced by the company in the current economic environment [1]

欧洲央行管委帕内塔：宏观经济前景仍面临重大且难以量化的风险。 ...

Group 1 - The current global macroeconomic regulation is in a "three no" state: no responsible institution, no tools, and no consensus [1] - The phenomenon of convergence in global economic cycles and macro conditions is increasing due to globalization [1] - Developing countries are urging major powers and reserve currency issuers to consider global impacts and coordinate responses during crises [1] Group 2 - The G20 played a significant role in global rescue during the 2008 crisis, with finance ministers and central bank governors having certain regulatory capabilities [2] - There is currently no formal institution responsible for coordinating global macroeconomic or monetary policies [2] - The IMF may have potential for coordination in international balance of payments and exchange rates, but it lacks the role of a global central bank or monetary policy coordination [2]

2025/6/18 11:04 【国富期货早间看点】MPOC 5 5.05% Anec 6 1437 20250618 【国富期货早间看点】MPOC马棕5月产量环比增长5.05% Anec预 计巴西大豆6月出口1437万吨 20250618 2025年06月18日 07:30 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 4096. 00 | -0.66 | 0. 74 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 77. 19 | 6. 47 | 2. 80 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 73.74 | 5.27 | 2. 43 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1074.00 | 0. 37 | 0.16 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 285. 30 | 0. 53 | 0. 35 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 54. 69 | -0. 76 | -0. 89 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98 ...

房地产销售有所回落，经济复苏动能仍待增强 ——5 月宏观数据分析 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 报告时间：2025.6.18 1 我们梳理了 5 月国内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经济运行节 奏的理解。总的来说，5 月宏观数据延续了 2025 年整体平稳，但复苏动能仍待 增强；实际 GDP 增速强于名义 GDP 的特征。一方面，国内经济仍然表现出很 强的韧性，工业生产强劲，促消费下消费保持较高增速；另一方面，国内经济 的复苏动能仍待加强，物价指数上行乏力，房地产销售增速有所回落，出口增 速下降。 因此，我们认为，需要理性客观的看待当前宏观经济，国内经济呈现出向 下有底，但向上不足的态势，物价指数的压力高于实际 GDP。仍待宏观政策加 大支持力度，增强市场信心。尽管节奏上充满波折，2025 年宏观经济和资产价 格，均有望延续向上修复的整体趋势，在此过程中需保持耐心。 一、制造业 PMI 环比回升，但力度偏弱 5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点， 制造 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 5月份，经济运行呈现总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势。 "5月，规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等指标增速基本上保持总体稳定，显示出生 产需求总体稳定。从就业情况来看，5月份全国城镇调查失业率为5%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。从物价情况看， 受到国际输入性因素和部分食品价格下降影响，5月份CPI同比小幅下降，但降幅与上月持平；从扣除食品和能源 的核心CPI来看，涨幅比上月有所扩大，显示出市场供求关系基本稳定。从上述情况看，都表现出5月份经济运行 总体平稳。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖6月16日在国新办发布会上表示。 不过，远东资信首席宏观研究员张林对《华夏时报》记者表示，5月宏观经济运行喜忧参半，尽管存在不少亮点， 但仍有出口扰动、透支效应、"低价"拖累等问题需要警惕。 "我们预计，二季度经济相较一季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低的走势，需要重点关注经济的波动。"浙 商证券首席经济学家李超表示。 宏观经济部分指标继续改善 5月份，在各项政策支持下，企业积极调整应变，促进了工业生产较快增长。 ...