数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/12/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 89,280.00 | +1850.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,216.00 | +27.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -40.00 | -70.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】海外周报第 116 期 美国初请失业金人数好于预期 主要观点 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：9 月零售销售和 11 月咨商局消费者信心指数低于预期。1）经济方面， 9 月耐用品订单环比初值 0.5%，预期 0.5%，前值从 2.9%上修至 3%。2）消费 方面，9 月零售销售环比 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%。11 月咨商局消费者信 心指数 88.7，预期 93.3，前值从 94.6 上修至 95.5。3）通胀方面，9 月 PPI 环 比 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.1%，同比 2.7%，预期 2.6%，前值从 2.6%上修至 2.7%。 欧元区：消费方面，11 月消费者信心指数-14.2，预期-14，前值-14.2。 日本：10 月工业产值好于预期、失业率略高于预期，11 月东京 CPI 基本符合 预期。1）经济方面，10 月工业产值环比初值 1.4%，预期-0.6%，前值 2.6%。 2）就业方面，10 月失业率 2.6%，预期 2.5%，前值 2.6%，求人倍率 1.18，预 期 1.2，前值 1.2。3）通胀方面，11 月东 ...

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined, indicating a phase of stable adjustment after previous expansion momentum[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index showed a minor drop but remains close to the expansion zone, reflecting resilient demand[1] - The Investment Confidence Index remained stable with slight contraction, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is expected to rebound under continued policy support[1] Industrial Profit Trends - From January to October 2025, profits of large industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of recovery[2] - Manufacturing profits grew by 7.7%, while public utilities saw a 9.5% increase, indicating structural optimization in industrial profits[2] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors were the main profit growth drivers, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[2] Global Economic Context - In the U.S., September retail sales rose by only 0.2%, significantly below the expected 0.4%, indicating weakening consumer momentum[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month, driven primarily by rising energy prices, with core PPI rising only 0.1%[6] - The U.S. economy faces a dual challenge of weakening employment and inflation pressures, with hiring intentions declining in half of the regions surveyed[7]

Group 1: Industrial Profit and Economic Indicators - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was -5.5%, down from 21.6%, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth[4] - The industrial added value year-on-year growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous period[4] - The PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3%[4] - The operating income profit margin fell from 18.7% to -5.7% year-on-year due to rising costs and a high base effect from last year[4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - During the "Black Friday" shopping season, 1.87 billion consumers are expected to participate, a record high, but average planned spending decreased by 4% to $622[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low[7] - In November, the PMI marginally increased by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by seasonal factors, with price indices performing better than recent futures market prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Policy Responses - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export fluctuations and profit declines[3] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing consumer supply and demand compatibility through a new implementation plan aimed at optimizing consumption structures by 2027[19] - The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 12.5% from 34,800 yuan/ton to 39,100 yuan/ton due to regulatory measures against price competition[15]

分析周期 2025.11.17-2025.11.23 技术研究部 联系电话：010-67413343 邮箱：research@dagongcredit.com 宏观经济和债券市场一周观点 ——本周信用债发行只数、规模环比增幅均超 30%，发行成本环比整体下行 3.28BP 本期观点摘要 宏观动态 债市观察 风险预警 1 经济运行：10 月财政收入端在税收带动下继续改善；财政支出端明显放缓，或与前 期财政靠前发力影响后续支出空间收窄、政府债券发行节奏提前造成资金安排趋于 谨慎有关。 资金面：11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日，央行公开市场逆回购操作合计净投放 4,340 亿 元。资金价格方面，受税期集中走款以及政府债缴款等扰动，周内资金面先紧后松， 前半周资金价格上行幅度大，后半周整体回落。全周 DR001、DR007 均值与前一周 基本持平。 债券发行：信用债发行数量、规模环比增幅均超过 30%，净融资额为净流入 1,899.86 亿元，平均发行成本环比下行 3.28BP。 新券种：国网租赁成功发行全国首单"绿色+两新+乡村振兴"三贴标债券。 主体级别下调：本周 4 家发行人主体级别被下调。 主体展望下调 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the seasonal level[2][5] - New export orders index rose significantly by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, driven by the easing of US-China tariffs and improved trade conditions[5][19] - Small enterprise PMI increased by 2.0 percentage points to 49.1%, marking a six-month high, indicating a recovery in the external trade environment[5][12] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in service-related activities post-holiday[2][28] - The construction PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, indicating a low-level recovery in building activities, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects[32][34] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices indices increased to 53.6% and 48.2%, respectively, showing an improvement in the supply-demand relationship[24][25] - The finished goods inventory index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating a faster reduction in inventory levels, which may support future price increases[24][27]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand shows signs of recovery with metro passenger volume increasing by 4.7% year-on-year as of November 28[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in November reached 1.384 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2184.0, up 9.5% month-on-month and 42.9% year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - National daily coal consumption in power plants decreased by 2.68% year-on-year to 4.72 million tons as of November 29[2] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces recorded 82.30%, down 1.55 percentage points month-on-month[2] - Cement dispatch rate was 33.44%, down 4.27 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting weak construction activity[2] Price Performance - Pork prices fell by 0.26% week-on-week, while vegetable prices increased by 1.23%[2] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.84% and Brent crude by 1.02% as of November 29, indicating volatility in oil prices[2] - The average wholesale price of apples increased by 2.14%, driven by reduced production and quality issues[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Special new bonds issued totaled 1.35 trillion yuan, with a significant acceleration in issuance[2] - MLF net injection reached 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of net MLF injections[2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with the 30-year yield at 2.1851%[2] Overseas Macro - US economic activity shows signs of marginal cooling, with retail sales increasing only 0.2% in September[3] - Ongoing US-Russia peace negotiations face significant unresolved issues, maintaining high uncertainty in the conflict[3] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000, indicating a return to low levels, but continued claims remain high at 1.96 million[3]

研究所 弱势震荡，反弹乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's stock price fluctuations are influenced by various factors including macroeconomic conditions, industry policies, and market trends [1] Group 1 - The company believes that long-term value will ultimately be supported by its performance [1] - The company is committed to improving its performance to provide more valuable returns to investors [1]