Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by U.S. Vice President Vance, indicating a lack of effective response to the current economic challenges [1][6][7] - Recent economic data from the U.S. shows a contraction in GDP by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022, contrasting sharply with previous growth rates of 3.1% and 2.4% in Q3 and Q4 of last year respectively [3][4] - The uncertainty in international trade policies, particularly due to tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, has led to a significant decline in consumer confidence, with the index dropping from 57 in March to 50.8, the lowest in 12 years [4][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the third consecutive time reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty [6][7] - The "Beige Book" report from the Federal Reserve indicates minimal changes in economic activity, with the term "tariffs" mentioned 107 times, highlighting the pervasive uncertainty affecting business decisions [4][6] - The combination of weak economic growth, persistent inflation, and trade policy uncertainties suggests that the current policy measures may not be achieving the desired outcomes, raising questions about future adjustments by the Federal Reserve [7]

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, but it is expected to retain its appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Risks - A significant risk facing the economy is the U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially in light of ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral policy stance this year, with no immediate plans to lower interest rates despite stable inflation risks [1] - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, gold may perform well as it is seen as a counter to potentially manipulated fiat currencies [2] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Current gold trading prices are significantly below last month's historical high of $3,500 per ounce, but a new support level and record prices are anticipated [2] - The baseline price forecast for gold is projected at $3,610 per ounce by Q1 2026, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $4,000 per ounce [2] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high due to rising recession and inflation risks, with historical price increases indicating that a rise to $4,000 per ounce is plausible [2] Group 3: U.S. Credibility Issues - The U.S. faces significant credibility issues as a reliable trading partner, even if the global trade war is resolved [2] - The potential implementation of the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" could lead to a 20% depreciation of the dollar, further increasing inflation beyond optimistic expectations [3] Group 4: Downside Risks and Strategic Asset Status - While there are some downside risks to gold prices, any declines are expected to be limited due to the current environment of uncertainty [4] - Gold is still viewed as a necessary strategic asset, providing a level of protection for investors amid various uncertainties [4]

发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：市场静待贸易靴子 落地》 - 2025.05.12 宏观观点 大方向依然是走弱 l 核心观点 在 5 月 12 日的中美经贸联合声明中，美国将取消和暂停对我国 部分关税，总体将对我国关税税率降至 30%左右。但我们认为此举对 于美国经济的提振有限，回到"解放日"之前的水平和状态可能性较 低。 首先是声明公布后进一步走高的政策不确定性指数。在"解放日" 后，关税大幅抬高，但真正直接作用于美国经济和实体预期的是政策 的不确定性。各项调查等软数据均显示了不确定性对居民和企业部门 消费、投资决策的负面影响。5 月 12 日，尽管中美关系出现了阶段性 缓和，但政策不确定性指数再创新高，这一影响渠道依然在起作用。 其次是特朗普可能出现的"朝令夕改"。这在上一次贸易战中已 经体现的较为充分，且 24%的对等关税是暂停 90 天， ...

欧洲央行管委警告 必须对下一步降息保持谨慎 金十数据5月13日讯，欧洲央行两名管委会成员表示，鉴于美国总统特朗普的经济政策存在高度不确定 性，欧洲央行在决定下一步利率举措时必须谨慎。欧洲央行管委内格尔和管委艾斯克里瓦强调了美国新 政府带来的挑战，包括在欧元区制定货币政策的困难。"我们在评估当前形势时需要保持谦逊，"艾斯克 里瓦表示，并补充称欧洲央行必须收集更多信息，"努力理清哪些因素占上风。"内格尔则表示："关于 货币政策的决定，重要的是要保持谨慎，不要过度强调可能很快改变的具体公告。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $6,000 in the next four to five years due to macroeconomic uncertainties and changing investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [1][2] - Commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva suggests that gold prices could increase by 80% from the current level of $3,333 to reach the $6,000 target [1] - The potential for gold price increase is supported by the idea that if global institutional investors reallocate just 0.5% of their U.S. overseas assets to gold, it could drive prices to $6,000 by 2029 [1] Group 2 - Gold currently represents only 4.0% of global asset portfolios, but limited supply growth means even minor reallocations could significantly impact prices [2] - The rising interest in gold is attributed to its reputation as a "store of value," especially during economic downturns and financial uncertainties expected in 2025 [2] - Recent trends show that gold prices have been on an upward trajectory, which is likely to continue given the economic challenges anticipated in the near future [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong rebound of over 15% in European stock markets since early April, Bank of America believes the market may be overly optimistic in pricing the reduction of future policy uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - European stock markets have rebounded more than 15% since the low on April 9, recovering from an 18% drop from the historical high in early March [3]. - The rebound is attributed to resilient macro data and expectations of reduced policy uncertainty [1][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Data - Overall macro data remains strong, with U.S. private domestic demand growing at an annualized rate of 3% in Q1 and April employment data exceeding expectations [5]. - Global PMI slightly declined from 51.9 in March to 50.7, indicating that while some indicators suggest a slowdown, economic growth momentum has not yet been significantly impacted [5]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Market sentiment has improved as signs indicate that the U.S. government's "pain threshold" has been triggered, leading to a rollback of tariff measures and upcoming trade negotiations with China [6]. - Investors appear to view high uncertainty indicators as lagging, expecting a significant decrease in uncertainty due to the easing of trade tensions [6]. Group 4: Future Risks - There is considerable disappointment potential as macro data may worsen, with analysts predicting a further decline in global PMI by 3 points to 48 in Q3 [7][8]. - Although policy uncertainty is expected to decrease, it may not decline as sharply as the market anticipates, suggesting that the Stoxx 600 index could face about a 15% downside risk, with a target price of 460 points for Q3 [14][11]. Group 5: Sector Analysis - Analysts favor sectors positively correlated with uncertainty reduction, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, personal and household products, and utilities [16]. - Caution is advised for sectors negatively correlated with uncertainty, including building materials, banks, capital goods, and diversified financial services [16].

VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING April 2025 WHAT' NEW? • GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent (y/y) in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent (y/y) in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment. • Merchandise exports slowed in Q1-2025 to 10.6 percent compared to 16.8 percent in the same period in 2024, driven by a combination of high base effects and potential slowdown in global demand. 1 Additionally, while FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent y/y in Q1-2025, reflecting uncertain outlook, FDI d ...

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Gundlach, the CIO and founder of DoubleLine Capital, believes that the surge in gold prices is far from over, predicting that gold could rise to $4,000 per ounce. He attributes this to changing perceptions among traders regarding gold, influenced by geopolitical tensions and tariffs [1][1][1]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 25% year-to-date, indicating a shift in how gold is viewed by investors, moving away from being a speculative tool to being recognized as a legitimate asset class [1][1]. - The global physical gold ETF market expanded by $11 billion in April, reaching a total of $397 billion, reflecting growing investor interest in gold as a safe haven [1][1][1]. - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 58% of global fund managers consider gold the safest asset amid a full-blown trade war [1][1]. Group 2: Broader Market Context - Gundlach expresses concerns about other risk assets, predicting a potential "crash" in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index possibly dropping to 4,500 points, representing a 20% decline from current levels [1][1]. - Other analysts, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bank of America, have also raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs setting a target of $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and potential economic slowdown in the U.S. [1][1][1].

美联储高官集体泼冷水，"按兵不动"成主流。 当地时间周五，在美联储公布最新利率决议两天后，超过一半的美联储政策制定者公开发表讲话，没有 一位暗示美联储即将降息。 克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的会议上表示： "我通常倾向于采取行动；但在这种情况下，不采取行动可能是平衡进一步上升的通胀和劳 动力市场放缓风险的最佳选择。" Hammack强调，官员们需要更多时间来评估关税和其他政府政策的影响。"当难以获得清晰度时，等待 额外数据将有助于为未来路径提供信息，"她说。她在接受路透社采访时补充说，政策制定者在6月下次 会议前不会有太多新的经济数据。 多位美联储官员强调通胀预期 多位美联储官员，包括美联储理事Adriana Kugler、Lisa Cook以及Hammack和纽约联储主席John Williams，都强调了控制通胀预期的重要性。 Williams特别强调这一主题，称锚定通胀预期是"现代中央银行的基石"。 圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem表示，如果关税对通胀的影响是短暂的，通胀预期保持锚定，且经 济活动明显放缓，降低利率可能是适当的。 "否则，我将专注于确保关税 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]