炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：光大证券 本周A 股表现亮眼 本周A 股主要宽基指数普遍收涨。从主要宽基指数来看，本周A 股主要宽基指数普遍收涨，中证500、 创业板指、中小100 涨幅相对较大，上证50、上证指数、沪深300 涨幅相对较小。从估值来看，当前科 创50、万得全A 等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025 年12 月26 日，其2010 年以来PE（TTM）分位 数均高于85%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业走势分化，有色金属、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，而美容护理、 社会服务等行业跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周仅大盘价值小幅收跌，其余风格指数均收涨，小盘成 长涨幅靠前。行业方面，本周申万一级行业走势分化，有色金属、国防军工、电力设备、电子涨幅居 前，美容护理、社会服务、银行、煤炭跌幅居前。 本周重要事件回顾 政策方面，中国人民银行发布一次性信用修复政策有关安排，符合相关条件的逾期信息将不会在个人信 用报告中予以展示；住房城乡建设工作会议明确2026 年房地产发展重点，北京进一步优化调整房地产 政策；此外，近期央行召开2025年第四季度例会，强调继 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20251228 聚焦主线板块，关注 ETF 组合推荐 2025 年 12 月 28 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度 的反应——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评》 2025-12-24 《2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向 风险平衡》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ A 股市场行情概述：（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：前三名的权益类 ETF 类型：规模指数 ETF（832.92 亿元），主题指数 ETF（73.08 亿元），行业指数 ETF（16.61 亿元）。前三名的 ETF 产品：中证 A500ETF（115.41 亿元），A500ETF 南 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that significant institutional investors are continuously increasing their holdings in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, providing stable incremental capital to the market. This trend is expected to lead to a "cross-year + spring" market rally as the market's profitability improves and financing capital accelerates its net inflow [1][4][22] - The report emphasizes that the main focus of the market is likely to be on blue-chip indices represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50, while cyclical sectors should be prioritized for investment [1][5][22] Group 1: Recent Capital Flow and ETF Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, the capital flow in stock ETFs has shown distinct phase characteristics and structural differentiation, with significant net subscriptions in A500 ETF since December, reflecting institutional investors' entry into the capital market [6][9][12] - The A500 ETF has seen a substantial net subscription of 810 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong interest from institutional investors, particularly in the context of the upcoming launch of A500 ETF options in 2026 [12][13][17] Group 2: Price Trends in Key Commodities - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and the new energy industry chain, with notable price rises in platinum (+32.92%), silver (+14.38%), and nickel (+9.25%) driven by global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [23][24] - The report highlights that the holding volumes of various commodities are at historically high levels, indicating potential supply constraints and speculative exposure in metals like aluminum, lead, and tin [26][27] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the overall A-share market has shown a positive trend, with major indices breaking through key moving averages, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment and improved market liquidity [30][31] - The report also points out that sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense have performed well due to improved economic expectations and specific market events, while consumer sectors have faced challenges [31][32]

【环球网财经综合报道】近日，中国ETF市场迎来里程碑时刻，总规模正式迈入6万亿元大关。据choice测算，截至12月26日，ETF规模合计达6.02 万亿元，较去年底增长超2.2万亿元。近期，中证A500ETF更是成为市场焦点，4个交易日净申购额超过480亿元。 据机构观察，12月宽基型ETF净流入规模较大。据开源证券研报，单月净流入规模达到1106亿元，其中有1019亿元来自A500ETF，占比达到 92.2%。与此同时，其余类型的宽基型ETF并没有相同数量级规模的净流出，证明A500ETF的净流入资金更大概率是增量。 ETF规模扩张对市场的影响还体现在资金流动和股价波动上。开源证券分析表示，强劲的增量资金，成为12月下旬春季躁动的进一步推动力，叠 加前期的积极要素，助力上证指数8连阳。（闻辉） 从资金流向来看，中证A500ETF获资金快速涌入。据Choice测算，12月22日至25日，仅本周前4个交易日，中证A500ETF全部产品净申购额合计就 达到482.45亿元。 随着ETF规模的快速增长，其对上市公司的影响日益显著。多家热门科创公司前十大流通股股东名单中均出现ETF的身影。以寒武纪为例，截至9 月底 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong inflow of incremental funds has driven the recent market rally, contributing to the Shanghai Composite Index achieving eight consecutive days of gains, and there is a recommendation to actively position for the upcoming spring market rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved eight consecutive days of gains, marking the third occurrence since the "9.24" market rally in 2024 [2]. - The market has shown signs of recovery from previous adjustments, with three major factors influencing the market's positive outlook diminishing [2]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - December saw an unusual net inflow into broad-based ETFs, with a total net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan, primarily driven by the A500 ETF, which accounted for 101.9 billion yuan, or 92.2% of the total [3]. - The net inflow into the A500 ETF is likely to be new capital rather than a reallocation from other ETFs, indicating a strong demand for this specific fund [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by PPI recovery and anti-involution policies, alongside a weak dollar and increased demand for AI hardware, presents investment opportunities in various sectors, including chemicals, new energy materials, and electronic communication products [4]. - The investment strategy should focus on technology and PPI, with attention to new marginal changes, such as the strengthening of domestic demand policies and the potential for growth in commercial aerospace and satellite industries [5]. Group 4: Sector Allocation - Recommended sector allocations include technology sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, as well as PPI beneficiaries like photovoltaic, chemicals, steel, and power [5]. - Long-term holdings should consider gold and optimized high-dividend stocks as part of the investment strategy [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为此轮人民币升值下跨年行情配置可以落地的交易策略为中期"泛科技"+短期"防御"， 即重点关注：商业航天、机器人、AI 应用端等机会，不因当下的汇率升值而切换至传统金融防 御，科技仍是第一生产力。卫星策略上可以以较低仓位布局防守/补涨主线，如直接受益于人民 币升值的造纸与航空机场，正值年报预告披露期，汇率升值带来的业绩增厚预期将在短期内被 反复交易。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 [Table_Summary2] 跨年布局机会：人民币升值下的受益全景图 在北向资金因圣诞假期缺席背景下，上证指数（也简称为沪指）依托内资强劲动能实现"八连 阳"，并在 12 月 25、26 日连续两日维持 1.9 万亿以上成交额，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock indices showed mixed performance this week, with significant capital inflow into the CSI A500-related ETFs, while certain industry-themed ETFs, particularly in the military sector, faced substantial outflows [1][2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 9.73 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 4.05 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 5.68 trillion yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 1.88% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89 points, up 3.53% [2]. - A total of 380.69 billion yuan net inflow was recorded for stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs, with broad-based index ETFs seeing a net inflow of 490 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: ETF Inflows and Outflows - The CSI A500-related ETFs experienced a net inflow of 493 billion yuan this week [5]. - In contrast, 64 industry-themed ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding 1 billion yuan, with significant losses in military-related ETFs [13]. - The top ten large-scale broad-based index ETFs collectively faced a net outflow of 17.85 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 ETF alone seeing a net outflow of 34.08 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Industry Themes - Industry-themed ETFs such as satellite, new energy, and gaming ETFs attracted significant capital, with net inflows of 15.51 billion yuan, 13.04 billion yuan, and 11.92 billion yuan respectively [10]. - Conversely, military-related ETFs faced substantial outflows, with the military leader ETF and military ETF seeing reductions of 26.66 billion and 12.48 billion shares, respectively, resulting in net outflows of 19.42 billion yuan and 16.11 billion yuan [12][13]. - Analysts suggest that the recent capital inflow into the CSI A500 index reflects a strategic positioning by long-term capital in anticipation of structural market changes [22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as macroeconomic data impacts diminish, liquidity and risk appetite will increasingly influence the market, potentially leading to a "spring rally" characterized by significant index movements [9]. - The upcoming launch of two new ETFs tracking Hong Kong stocks and AI-related sectors is expected to attract additional investor interest [23].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to strengthen, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for eight consecutive days, marking a significant trend similar to the one observed in April near the 3000-point level [1] - The total trading volume for the week reached 9.83 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly six weeks, with a daily trading volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [1] - Margin financing saw a significant increase, with a net purchase of over 41.3 billion yuan, the highest in 11 weeks, bringing the financing balance to a historical high of 2.53 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The electronics sector received over 10.7 billion yuan in net financing, while the communication sector saw over 7.1 billion yuan, and the power equipment sector gained over 6.7 billion yuan in net financing [1] - Major sectors such as defense, machinery, and basic chemicals also experienced substantial net inflows, with power equipment receiving over 49.2 billion yuan and electronics over 47.1 billion yuan [1] - Only the banking and coal sectors experienced slight net outflows, indicating a strong preference for growth sectors [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the market is expected to follow a "cross-year market" pattern, with large-cap stocks leading the way, followed by small-cap stocks, as historical trends suggest [2] - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a key focus, with expectations of significant returns, while commodities are showing signs of a bullish trend [2] - The aerospace equipment sector has seen a remarkable increase, with the index rising 18.25% this week and 83.85% year-to-date, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 4 - Recent developments in the aerospace sector include the launch of the Commercial Space Industry Alliance Innovation Fund and the successful launch of the Long March 8 rocket, which is expected to drive rapid expansion in the industry [3] - The upcoming measures to support the G60 Science and Technology Corridor in the Yangtze River Delta are set to take effect from January 1, 2026, further boosting the aerospace sector [3] - The commercial rocket sector is projected to undergo a transformation by 2026, marking a significant shift towards reusable rockets in China [3]

今日A股继续强势。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.1%报3963.68点，深证成指涨0.54%报13603.89点，创业板指涨0.14%报3243.88点，北证50涨0.35%报1463.04 点，在没有北向资金的情况下，全市场成交额高达2.16万亿元，较上日成交额放量2165亿元。板块题材上，海南、锂矿、贵金属、商业航天板块活跃， 造纸、CPO调整。 就本周来看，A股简直势不可挡，三大指数均录得5连阳，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计上涨1.88%、3.53%和3.9%，而上证指数更是出现了 罕见的"8连阳"，整体赚钱效应极佳。 A股之所以会大涨，从基本面上看，随着上周五日本央行利率决议的不确定性落地，短期利空出尽，致使资金风险偏好抬升，而美股科技方向的接连反 弹也让市场对于AI泡沫论的担忧情绪有所缓解，再考虑到当前临近年尾，市场对于"春季躁动"的预期日趋强烈，由此便引发部分资金率先进场布局，继 而引发了市场的做多热情。而随着场外资金的不断买入，我们认为"春季躁动"行情可能已经开始。 以可重复使用火箭技术为例，它是降低发射成本的关键，如蓝箭航天朱雀三号、天兵科技天龙三号等项目持续推进。技术成熟后有望将发射成本降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8-day consecutive rise, attributed to multiple favorable factors both domestically and internationally [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 26, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 0.10%, marking the longest consecutive rise of the year since December 17 [2]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market exceeded 407 trillion yuan, setting a new annual record as of December 23 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion yuan operation of one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan for December [3]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment, with a focus on maintaining a relatively stable and ample liquidity state [3]. Group 3: Seasonal Market Trends - The "cross-year-spring" market phenomenon is characterized by seasonal trends in the A-share market, often occurring from December to February, driven by improved liquidity, favorable policies, and increased risk appetite [4]. - Historical data indicates that significant market movements typically begin in December and are influenced by multiple factors rather than just calendar effects [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the current market environment is conducive to structural opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in AI applications and cyclical sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals [7]. - The central economic work conference emphasized innovation and the development of new growth drivers, which may further support investment in technology and related sectors [7]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a rotation among sectors, with technology stocks likely to remain a key investment focus in 2026, alongside sectors such as new energy, consumption, and military [7]. - Investors are advised to pay close attention to industry cycles and market sentiment to optimize asset allocation in the evolving market landscape [7].