2025 年 5 月 7 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】盈利探底回升，科技板块景气度上行——A 股及港股财报分析 A 股 2024 年盈利增速回落，但 2025Q1 盈利增速显著回升。全部 A 股 2024 年归母 净利润同比下降2.3%，较2024年前三季度归母净利润增速回落2.4pct，而其2025Q1 归母净利润同比增长 3.6%，较 2024 年全年归母净利润增速回升 5.9pct。此外，港 股方面，2024H2 港股盈利增速较 2024H1 回升，恒生科技盈利保持高增。 市场基准利率以政策利率为中枢运行既是健全市场化利率调控机制的应有之义，也是 内嵌于"牵 OMO 利率之一发而带动各市场利率全身"的必然选择。即便没有美国加 征高额关税等事件，今年一季度以来的"正偏离"亦将向常态回归，而 4 月份相关事 件的出现加速了这一过程的到来。 行业研究 【汽车】新势力改款+新车相继发布，关注节后终端优惠变化——特斯拉与新势力 4 月销量跟踪报告(买入) 4 月车市表现平稳，新车上市/老车型终端优惠持续提振新势力销量，五一新势力购车 权益总体稳定，1）预计以旧换新驱动的 2025E 国内 ...

投资建议：维持行业"增持"评级。 我们认为：在智驾平权和出海两大趋势加持下，汽车行业的成长仍然 不乏亮点；同时由于行业竞争激烈，整车与零部件围绕年降的博弈将持续。我们认为受益的标的包括新能 源整车，以及线控底盘零部件、智能座椅零部件和头部新势力核心供应链公司。 汽车行业成长性尚可。 根据 WIND 及各公司财报，全部汽车行业 A 股公司 2024/2025Q1 营收同比增 速为 6.6%/5.7% 。二级行业方面， 2025Q1 营收成长性排序为摩托车及其他 > 乘用车 > 汽车零部件 > 商用车 > 汽车服务。从细分的三级行业看，营收成长性的亮点在于电动乘用车、汽车电子等。我们认为随 着辅助驾驶的发展，汽车行业的成长亮点仍在。 归母净利润增速口径：全部汽车行业 A 股公司 2024/2025Q1 营收同比增速为 10.9%/11.3% 。 二级 行业方面， 2025Q1 成长性排序为摩托车及其他 > 汽车服务 > 乘用车 > 汽车零部件 > 商用车。从细分 的三级行业看，归母净利润成长性的亮点在于电动乘用车、商用载客车等。我们认为，虽然行业竞争激 烈，优秀企业仍然能够不断提升效率，实现利润率提升。 报告导读 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition showcases over a hundred new models and highlights advancements in intelligent technology, marking a significant event for both automotive enthusiasts and industry professionals [2][3] - The exhibition serves as a beacon for the future direction of automotive products and injects strong momentum and confidence into the industry's transformation and upgrade [2][6] Industry Trends - The exhibition features a diverse array of global automotive brands, including major players like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Tesla, alongside high-end and modified car brands [3][4] - The focus on intelligent technology and electric vehicle development is evident, with new models like the Changan Q07 and the Zeekr 9X showcasing advanced autonomous driving capabilities and high computing power [4][5] - The proportion of new energy vehicles at the exhibition has increased significantly, with over 60 new energy models presented, representing 69.1% of the total new cars, up from 38.4% at the 2020 Beijing Auto Show [8] Technological Innovations - The exhibition highlights a shift towards original core technologies in automotive innovation, moving away from mere improvements to groundbreaking advancements [6][14] - Companies are increasingly emphasizing practical features and responsible marketing, moving away from exaggerated claims about autonomous driving capabilities [9][10] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is evolving from price wars to a more diversified competition strategy, with companies focusing on unique features and technological advancements rather than solely on pricing [15][16] - The introduction of Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities is a focal point, with several companies planning to launch models equipped with this technology within the year [16][17] Consumer Insights - Consumer interest in intelligent driving features is growing, with 90% of consumers willing to pay extra for advanced intelligent driving services [13] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards rational consumer behavior, with a greater emphasis on understanding the actual capabilities of autonomous driving systems [12][14]

作者 | 耿宸斐 编辑 | 宋婉心 一路高歌猛进的"智驾"被按下了暂停键。小米SU7事故后半个月，工信部出台了监管文件限制智驾功能及宣传，有参会人士透露 了几大重点：L2不允许用"接管"进行宣传、不再受理"代客泊车"等驾驶员不能完全控制的功能、不允许公测等。 最新消息是，5月4日，小米调整了SU7新车定购页面中的措辞，将"智驾"更名为"辅助驾驶"。 在这场掀起舆论危机的车祸事故之前，小米等几家新能源车企进行了一轮配股融资，刚准备加满弹药推动"智驾平权"。 3月，小米、比亚迪各自配股融资425亿港元和435亿港元，蔚来也宣布拟配售约1.4亿股A类普通股融资40.3亿港元。其中，比亚 迪和小米均选择高位配股，蔚来则在股价处于历史低位的情况下实施配售。 蔚来管理层也曾在财报会上透露，相较于采用4颗Orin芯片，其自研的神玑NX9031智驾芯片可节省约1万元成本。 硬件层面，激光雷达是核心成本。尽管激光雷达近年来价格不断下探，已至千元左右，但在主打性价比的汽车市场中，激光雷 达堆叠仍旧带来不低的成本。 在这一背景下，车企开始采用差异化的智能驾驶方案：在基础款车型上主推成本更低的纯视觉方案，而在高阶版本中则配备激 光雷 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Auto Show has experienced a significant shift towards a quieter atmosphere compared to previous years, with a notable absence of high-profile promotional activities and celebrity appearances [3][5][30] - The automotive industry is witnessing a "leveling" movement in vehicle configurations, driven by intense competition among domestic car manufacturers and the normalization of previously hyped technologies [5][10][15] - The trend of "intelligent driving" features becoming standard across various models indicates a shift in consumer expectations and a reduction in the perceived exclusivity of such technologies [8][10][15] Industry Trends - The ongoing regulatory efforts to curb excessive marketing practices among car manufacturers have contributed to a more subdued environment at the auto show [5][30] - The competitive landscape has led to a widespread adoption of L2-level driver assistance technologies, with many brands now offering these features as standard [8][10][15] - The collaboration between traditional automakers and technology suppliers is becoming increasingly common, as companies seek to leverage external expertise to enhance their offerings [10][11][13] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Auto Show set a new record with 1.01 million attendees and 1,366 vehicles on display, highlighting the event's significance in the global automotive landscape [27][30] - The presence of international visitors and exhibitors has become a norm, with over 63,000 overseas attendees from 97 countries at this year's event [27] - The shift from concept showcases to a focus on mass-produced vehicles reflects the industry's maturation and the need for manufacturers to demonstrate their capabilities to consumers [30]

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned for growth through multiple dimensions: smart technology, scale, high-end products, and globalization, with a focus on the implementation of intelligent driving and achieving equality in smart driving capabilities [1][12]. Group 1: Smart Technology - The penetration rate of L2+ intelligent driving is increasing, with a rapid growth in high-level intelligent driving features. Consumer acceptance of smart driving is on the rise, supported by technological advancements from DeepSeek, which significantly reduce training costs and improve response times [2][20]. - The company has launched the Wangchao Ocean series of intelligent driving models, making high-level intelligent driving available at a price point as low as 70,000 yuan, thus promoting smart driving as a key consideration for car buyers [3][14]. Group 2: Scale and Cost Advantages - The Dm-i 5.0 technology is expected to enhance fuel efficiency and strengthen the company's market position through cost advantages and scale effects. The company aims to capture market share by lowering vehicle prices [12][13]. - The company has reported strong export growth, with significant increases in overseas sales, particularly in Brazil, Turkey, and Europe, indicating a robust global expansion strategy [4][12]. Group 3: High-End Product Strategy - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for high-end products, with flagship models like Han L and Tang L set to launch, featuring advanced intelligent driving systems that enhance brand positioning and profitability [4][13]. - The company is focusing on high-end models that integrate advanced technologies, which are expected to drive overall profitability upward [4][12]. Group 4: Globalization - The company is accelerating its overseas market investments and factory setups, with a target of exporting 800,000 vehicles in 2025, which is expected to boost profitability [4][12]. - The establishment of a self-owned shipping fleet is enhancing the company's export capabilities, contributing to its strong performance in international markets [12][13]. Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1,014.12 billion yuan, 1,237.23 billion yuan, and 1,477.25 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 58.15 billion yuan, 67.12 billion yuan, and 74.19 billion yuan [5][7]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 19.13 yuan in 2025 to 24.41 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant growth in the sales of new energy vehicles, driven by both domestic and international demand, alongside advancements in smart driving technology and high-end product offerings [2][5][6]. Sales Performance - In April, the company reported wholesale sales of 380,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1][2]. - Cumulative sales from January to April reached 1.359 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.1% [2]. - The export volume for April reached 79,000 units, marking a new high, with steady growth observed in the first four months of the year [2]. International Expansion - The company is expanding its international presence, with plans to increase investments in markets such as Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia [2]. - The introduction of additional roll-on/roll-off ships is expected to enhance shipping capacity and support export growth, with a fleet expansion planned to reach eight ships by January 2026 [2]. Smart Driving Technology - The launch of the Dynasty Ocean series smart driving models aims to democratize high-level smart driving features, potentially transforming consumer purchasing considerations in the automotive market [3]. - The company has sold over 4.4 million vehicles equipped with L2 or higher driving assistance systems, leveraging its data advantage to promote smart driving accessibility [3]. High-End Product Strategy - The year 2025 is positioned as a pivotal year for high-end product offerings, with the launch of the Tengshi N9 and flagship models like Han L and Tang L, which feature advanced smart driving systems and rapid charging technology [4]. - These high-end models are expected to enhance overall profitability and drive the brand's premium positioning in the market [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1,014.12 billion, 1,237.23 billion, and 1,477.25 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 58.15 billion, 67.12 billion, and 74.19 billion yuan [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 19.13, 22.09, and 24.41 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 380,000 new energy vehicles in April, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1][2]. - Cumulative sales from January to April reached 1.359 million units, up 45.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s export sales reached a record high of 79,000 units in April, with steady growth in overseas markets such as Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [2]. - The launch of the intelligent driving version of the Dynasty Ocean series is expected to accelerate the adoption of advanced driving assistance systems [3]. - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for high-end products, with the launch of the Tengshi N9 and flagship models equipped with advanced driving systems [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1,014.12 billion, 1,237.23 billion, and 1,477.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 58.15 billion, 67.12 billion, and 74.19 billion yuan [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 19.13 yuan in 2025, increasing to 24.41 yuan by 2027 [5][4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 380,000 new energy vehicles in April, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1][2]. - The cumulative sales from January to April reached 1.359 million units, up 45.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s export sales in April reached 79,000 units, setting a new record, with steady growth in overseas demand, particularly in Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [2][3]. - The launch of the intelligent driving version of the Dynasty Ocean series is expected to accelerate the democratization of intelligent driving technology [3]. - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for high-end products, with the launch of the Tengshi N9 and flagship models featuring advanced intelligent driving systems [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1,014.12 billion, 1,237.23 billion, and 1,477.25 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 58.15 billion, 67.12 billion, and 74.19 billion yuan [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 19.13, 22.09, and 24.41 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [4][5].

Core Insights - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on smart electric vehicles, as evidenced by the significant increase in exhibition space dedicated to automotive technology and supply chains at the Shanghai Auto Show, which expanded from 30,000 square meters to approximately 100,000 square meters this year [1] - The competition among car manufacturers is shifting towards the supply chain, with technology suppliers emerging as key players in the development of innovative products for the Chinese electric vehicle market [1][3] - Local suppliers in China, such as Huawei and Baosteel, are showcasing their latest automotive technologies, indicating a deepening integration of technology and automotive sectors [1] Industry Trends - The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the importance of electrification and intelligence, with suppliers showcasing advanced technologies in areas such as smart driving, digital cockpits, and AI chips [3] - Companies like Fureitek are introducing innovative products in the field of assisted driving, emphasizing low coupling and high reliability in their camera modules and radar products [3][6] - Bosch reported that 65% of its new business in China over the next five years will be related to smart and electrified solutions, reflecting a rapid market shift towards these technologies [6] Safety and Regulation - The rise of smart driving technologies has prompted a reevaluation of safety standards in the industry, with recent accidents leading to increased scrutiny and the development of regulatory frameworks [11] - The penetration rate of Level 2 autonomous driving technologies is already high, and consumer demand remains strong, despite regulatory tightening [11] - Companies are focusing on product safety and stability, with many suppliers emphasizing these aspects at the Shanghai Auto Show [11] Cost Management and Innovation - The automotive industry is facing significant cost pressures, leading to a focus on cost control without compromising product quality, with technology innovation being a key strategy for achieving this balance [15][16] - Companies are integrating various control systems to reduce costs and enhance product competitiveness, while also promoting the use of domestic chips to stabilize supply chains [16][20] - The trend of "reverse technology output" from China is gaining momentum, with local manufacturers increasingly defining next-generation technologies and supporting global clients [17][20] Digital Transformation - The shift towards digitalization in manufacturing processes is crucial for shortening development cycles for automotive manufacturers, with companies like Unity providing digital twin solutions to enhance operational efficiency [21] - The competitive landscape for automotive supply chains is evolving, with a focus on innovation speed, localization depth, and cost control capabilities becoming paramount [22] - The transition from China as a "world factory" to an "innovation laboratory" is redefining the global automotive industry's value chain [22]