证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 比亚迪（002594） 3 月销量点评：销量环增 17%，兆瓦闪充打 造油电同速 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 969,284 | 1,125,132 | 1,277,100 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 24.73 | 16.08 | 13.51 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 53,128 | 65,084 | 78,138 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | 31.98 | 22.50 | 20.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.88 | 13.25 | 17.48 | 21.42 | 25.71 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 36.17 | 26.99 | 20.45 | 16.69 | 13.90 | [ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the intelligent driving (智驾) industry, highlighting the shift in market dynamics and the competitive strategies of various companies, particularly focusing on the impact of BYD's recent initiatives on the mid-range intelligent driving chip market [3][12][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The intelligent driving industry is witnessing a significant shift, with BYD's announcement of standardizing high-level intelligent driving across its models, which is expected to raise the baseline for intelligent driving features in the market [9][12]. - The demand for mid-range intelligent driving chips is projected to surge from tens of thousands to millions due to the competitive landscape created by BYD and other domestic brands [12][24]. - The market for low-computing (under 10T AI computing) intelligent driving chips exceeded 10 million units last year, while high-end chips like OrinX and Ascend 610 sold around 2.6 million units [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Companies are adopting a "barbell strategy" in intelligent driving chip selection, focusing on either low-cost entry-level chips for basic safety features or high-end chips for advanced functionalities, leaving mid-range chips in a precarious position [6][7]. - The competition among chip manufacturers is intensifying, with major players like NVIDIA, Huawei, and domestic firms like Horizon and Qualcomm vying for market share in the mid-range segment [14][15][20]. - The article notes that the competitive logic for mid-range chips differs from high-end chips, with a greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness and performance [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The article highlights the challenges faced by Mobileye, which has lost its dominant position in the intelligent driving chip market due to increased competition and the rise of local players [24][25]. - The shift towards "全民智驾" (universal intelligent driving) is prompting car manufacturers to demand high-end driving experiences at mid-range prices, creating pressure on chip suppliers to innovate and reduce costs [27][30]. - The article suggests that NVIDIA's current strategy may be overly confident, as it faces competition from newer, more cost-effective solutions from other manufacturers [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in March 2025, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reaching 377,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% and a month-on-month increase of 16.9% [2][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In March, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 371,000 units, up 23.1% year-on-year and 16.7% month-on-month. Cumulatively, sales from January to March totaled 986,000 units, reflecting a 59.3% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The export performance was notable, with February's export sales reaching 73,000 units, a new high. The company disclosed export sales of 66,000, 67,000, and 73,000 units for January, February, and March respectively, indicating steady growth in overseas demand [4]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company launched the Dynasty Ocean series of intelligent driving models in February, making high-level intelligent driving technology accessible at a price point of 70,000 yuan. Orders for these models account for 25%-30% of total orders nationwide [5]. - The company plans to enhance its overseas market presence by investing in factories in Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, aiming for rapid growth in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Australia/New Zealand [4]. Group 3: Product and Profitability Outlook - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for high-end products, with the Tengshi N9 SUV launched in March, priced between 389,800 and 449,800 yuan. This model is anticipated to boost overall profitability [6]. - The flagship models, Han L and Tang L, are set to launch in April, featuring advanced intelligent driving systems and fast-charging technology, which are expected to enhance the brand's high-end positioning [6]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1,014.1 billion yuan, 1,237.2 billion yuan, and 1,477.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 58.1 billion yuan, 67.1 billion yuan, and 74.2 billion yuan for the same years [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 19.12 yuan, 22.08 yuan, and 24.41 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 17, and 15 [7].

Core Insights - The conference serves as a significant platform for international technical exchange and aims to assist Chinese automotive companies in expanding globally [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The "IVISTA China Intelligent Vehicle Index 2023" introduces new testing scenarios including rain AEB and L2+ memory parking, focusing on user privacy protection in data handling [2] - The "C-AHI China Automotive Health Index 2023" incorporates low-carbon energy testing in various urban scenarios and evaluates antibacterial properties of vehicle components [2][3] Group 2: Global Market Integration - Chinese automotive companies are leveraging self-sufficient technology in core components like chips and sensors, significantly reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [4] - The focus is on transitioning from product output to brand value and technology standard output, supported by evolving policies and standards [4][5] Group 3: International Collaboration - China Automotive Engineering Research Institute (CAERI) aids domestic brands in meeting local market needs through tailored testing and certification services, achieving Euro NCAP five-star ratings for multiple models [6][7] - Strategic partnerships, such as with the Malaysian Institute for Road Safety Research, enhance recognition and facilitate market entry in Southeast Asia [7] Group 4: Standardization and Global Influence - CAERI is establishing an international expert network and promoting Chinese testing standards globally, enhancing China's influence in international automotive safety standards [8] - The organization has set up overseas service centers to provide comprehensive support for Chinese automotive brands in various regions [8] Group 5: Learning from International Standards - The adoption of data-driven approaches and a focus on comprehensive safety measures are essential for improving China's automotive testing standards [9] - Emphasis on international collaboration to harmonize testing protocols and reduce development costs for automotive companies [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in overseas sales, with March wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reaching 377,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% and a month-on-month increase of 16.9% [1][2]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and profit, with projected revenues of 1,014.12 billion, 1,237.23 billion, and 1,477.25 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 58.12 billion, 67.09 billion, and 74.17 billion for the same years [4][6]. - The launch of high-end models and the expansion of intelligent driving features are anticipated to enhance the company's product offerings and profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, the company sold 371,000 new energy passenger vehicles, marking a 23.1% year-on-year increase and a 16.7% month-on-month increase. Cumulatively, sales from January to March reached 986,000 units, up 59.3% year-on-year [1][2]. Export Growth - The company reported record export sales of 73,000 units in February, with steady growth in overseas markets such as Turkey, Brazil, and Europe. The company plans to increase its investment in overseas markets and expand its fleet of roll-on/roll-off ships to enhance export capabilities [2][4]. Intelligent Driving and Product Upgrades - The company launched the Dynasty Ocean series of intelligent driving models, with orders for these models accounting for 25%-30% of total orders. This move is expected to accelerate the adoption of intelligent driving features in the market [3][4]. High-End Product Strategy - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for high-end products, with the launch of the Tengshi N9 SUV and flagship models equipped with advanced intelligent driving systems. These products are expected to drive overall profitability [4][6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1,014.12 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 30.5%. Net profit is expected to reach 58.12 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 44.4% [6][10].

比亚迪（002594.SZ）系列点评二十五 出海再创新高 智驾、高端化多重成长 2025 年 04 月 02 日 事件概述：公司发布 3 月产销快报，3 月新能源汽车批发销售 37.7 万辆，同比 +24.8%，环比+16.9%；新能源乘用车批发销售 37.1 万辆，同比+23.1%，环 比+16.7%。分品牌看，3 月王朝海洋、腾势、方程豹、仰望销量分别 35.1 万 辆、12,620 辆、8,051 辆、133 辆。 ➢ 3 月批发同比增长 出口表现亮眼。公司 3 月新能源乘用车批发销售 37.1 万 辆，同比+23.1%，受益出海及智驾版铺货，环比+16.7%。1-3 月累计销售 98.6 万辆，同比+59.3%。2 月新能源出口销量 7.3 万辆，再创新高；25-01/25-02/25- 03 公司披露出口销量分别 6.6/6.7/7.3 万辆，出海稳步增长，一方面是由于海外 真实需求逐步提升，受益土耳其、巴西、欧洲等地销量快速增长，主要车型是 seal U 混动；一方面是受益滚装船投入：比亚迪 2024 年 1 月、11 月，2025 年 1 月 分别投入 1、1、2 艘滚装船，自建运力提升带动销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent accident involving Xiaomi's SU7 has raised significant concerns about the safety and maturity of smart driving technology, highlighting the gap between consumer perception and the actual capabilities of such systems [2][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The accident occurred on March 29, resulting in three fatalities, and has prompted Xiaomi and its founder Lei Jun to respond, although the investigation is ongoing and the cause remains unclear [2]. - The incident has sparked a nationwide discussion on the application of smart driving technology, which is perceived as a promising area within artificial intelligence [2]. Group 2: Current State of Smart Driving Technology - The global state of smart driving technology is primarily between Level 3 (L3) and Level 4 (L4) automation, with no vehicles currently achieving true L4 capabilities [3]. - Consumers often lack a clear understanding of the development stage of smart driving technology, leading to over-reliance on these systems without adequate knowledge of their limitations [3]. Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Perception - Car manufacturers, including Xiaomi, often emphasize the trendy and intelligent aspects of their products while downplaying safety concerns, which are typically relegated to user manuals rather than marketing materials [3][4]. - The marketing strategies employed by companies may mislead consumers regarding the safety and reliability of smart driving technologies, creating a disconnect between consumer expectations and actual technological capabilities [3][4]. Group 4: Industry Responsibility and Future Directions - The rapid advancement of smart connected vehicles is driven by technological progress, but there is a critical need for safety validation and regulatory oversight to ensure public safety [4][5]. - Companies must prioritize human safety and needs in their product development and marketing strategies, moving away from a purely sales-driven approach to foster responsible innovation in smart driving technology [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for BYD Electronics [6] Core Viewpoints - In 2024, BYD Electronics is expected to achieve a revenue of 177.306 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36%, with a net profit of 4.266 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.6% [1] - The company's automotive business is experiencing significant growth driven by the penetration of intelligent driving technologies, with revenue from the new energy vehicle segment projected to reach 20.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [2] - The demand for AI data centers is surging, leading to growth in AI servers and related technologies, although the new intelligent product segment is expected to see a decline in revenue by 15.63% to 15.56 billion yuan due to challenges in the household energy storage business [3] - The global consumer electronics market is recovering, with BYD Electronics benefiting from increased smartphone and tablet shipments, resulting in a 45% year-on-year revenue growth in the consumer electronics segment, reaching 141.233 billion yuan [4] Financial Summary - For 2024, BYD Electronics is projected to have a gross margin of 6.9% and a net profit margin of 2.41%, with a slight decline in margins due to business restructuring [1] - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a continued upward trend, with net profits expected to grow by 40.8%, 28.2%, and 18.2% respectively, reaching 6 billion, 7.702 billion, and 9.102 billion yuan [4][5] - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 15 for 2025, decreasing to 10 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - Black Sesame Intelligence has reported impressive financial results for 2024, with significant revenue and gross profit growth, indicating a successful transition from an automatic driving chip supplier to a comprehensive intelligent computing solution provider [4][5][26]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 51.8% to 474 million yuan in 2024 compared to 2023 [4]. - Gross profit reached 195 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 152.4%, raising the gross margin from 23.7% in 2023 to 41.1% in 2024 [4][5]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to sales to leading domestic automotive OEMs and increased market penetration in commercial vehicles [6][7]. Group 2: Business Model Transformation - Black Sesame Intelligence has successfully transitioned from being a chip supplier to a full-scenario intelligent computing solution provider, driven by the sale of more System-on-Chip (SoC) based automatic driving solutions and proprietary software licensing [8][25]. - The company aims to solidify its core technology while exploring imaginative new business models, including entry into the robotics market and enhancing its presence in commercial vehicle and vehicle-road-cloud integration sectors [26][28][29]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company has established deep partnerships with major automotive manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Dongfeng, facilitating large-scale production of its chips [10][12][14]. - Black Sesame Intelligence's chips are recognized for their high computational power, making them the preferred choice for several leading automotive companies [11][12]. - The company is expanding its ecosystem by collaborating with algorithm companies and hardware manufacturers to enhance its delivery capabilities to automotive clients [28]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The launch of the new Wudang A2000 series chips, designed specifically for automatic driving, showcases the company's commitment to innovation and efficiency in computing [18][20]. - Black Sesame Intelligence has developed key technologies such as the Jiushao NPU and ISP, which optimize performance for automatic driving applications and enhance image processing capabilities [21][22]. - The company is focusing on integrating high-performance computing capabilities into various applications, including smart transportation and industrial automation, leveraging its advanced chip technologies [31].

目前，黑芝麻智能旗下核心产品有两大系列，分别是专注于自动驾驶的华山系列，以及专注于跨域计算的武当系列。杨宇欣表示，黑芝麻智能要基于在 汽车行业的积累，拓展更多领域，例如机器人。他谈到，武当系列和华山系列芯片可以充当机器人"大小脑"，未来机器人的发展需要保证有实时性、可靠 性、运动控制的计算单元，即武当系列可以做"小脑"，同时又需要能够实现全场景通用场景识别的"大脑"，这就需要华山A2000系列。 "今年赶上一个大年，大家讲'智驾平权'，这对过去这些年耕耘的厂商来说是爆发的机会。从我们自己来看，包括客户需求、订单以及下一步技 术的拓展，都有很多进展。一方面，对这个行业来说，2025年是很重要的分水岭；另一方面，智驾在快速发展，我认为未来会变成像空调、座椅一 样的标配。"3月29日，在2025中国电动汽车百人会论坛期间，黑芝麻智能CMO杨宇欣在接受《中国汽车报》等媒体采访时如是说。 当前，智驾竞争非常激烈，不少车企也在自研芯片或算法。对于未来车企与供应商的分工，杨宇欣认为："随着整个产业的成熟，分工边界会越来越清 晰。黑芝麻智能将自身定义为芯片供应商，当然，现在的AI芯片供应商不是只卖芯片，也不是只会卖芯片，我们 ...