Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, particularly focusing on the relationship between commodities and US Treasury yields [5][7] - In the week ending January 30, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and the UK markets leading gains, while major commodity futures like crude oil saw significant increases [5][6] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December, indicating a contraction influenced by the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month [10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the correlation between commodity prices and US Treasury yields, noting that during different economic phases, their relationship varies, particularly at economic turning points [8][9] - The January PMI data indicates a decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with the manufacturing PMI reflecting a drop due to seasonal factors and high base effects [10][12] - The report outlines new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at standardizing public fund performance benchmarks, which will take effect on March 1, 2026, to protect long-term investor interests [14][15] Group 3 - The report notes that the high-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing sectors remain above the prosperity line, while downstream consumer goods manufacturing has not sustained its previous strength, reflecting weak domestic demand [11][13] - The report indicates that the service sector's PMI also showed weakness, particularly in the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline, impacting overall confidence [12][13] - The report suggests that the new regulations will enhance transparency and accountability in fund management, thereby improving investor trust and decision-making [17][18]

2025年，我国消费市场向新而行，保持稳健增长。2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，同比 增长3.7%，比2024年加快0.2个百分点，规模居全球零售市场前列。2025年服务零售额同比增长5.5%， 快于商品零售额1.7个百分点，体现了较强的活力和潜力。 这些成绩不仅彰显了我国消费市场的强大韧性，也为2026年我国消费市场持续向好奠定了坚实基 础。对于今年的扩内需工作，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为今年经济工 作重点任务首位。商务部等部门发布文件，指导地方相关部门和金融机构加强协同，精准施策，推动惠 民生和促消费紧密结合；多部门明确继续实施消费品以旧换新政策；国家发展改革委宣布，研究制定出 台2026年至2030年扩大内需战略实施方案；有关方面正在研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计 划……近期，一揽子提振和扩大消费的政策陆续发布，为今年扩大内需工作锚定了方向。 提升以旧换新政策效能 2025年12月底，国家发展改革委、财政部联合发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知》，对2026年"两新"工作作出系统部署。其中，2026年消费品以旧换新政策重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new consumer group known as "migrant seniors," who are increasingly engaging in service consumption, particularly in travel and residence services, as a response to government initiatives aimed at stimulating domestic demand and revitalizing the real estate market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Service Consumption Initiatives - The State Council has introduced a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, including 12 measures to promote travel and residence services [2]. - The service consumption sector is expected to see a 5.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales and a 4.5% increase in per capita spending by residents in 2025, with service consumption accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure [3][4]. Group 2: Travel and Residence Services - Travel and residence services are identified as a key area for development, focusing on providing comprehensive services for people residing temporarily in destination cities [4]. - The integration of travel services with the revitalization of existing real estate is seen as a significant opportunity to stimulate investment in infrastructure and enhance consumer experiences [5][6]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Revitalization - The government emphasizes the need to "digest stock" and optimize new supply in the real estate market, with a focus on transforming existing properties into rental housing or community spaces [5]. - The combination of revitalizing the real estate market with travel services is expected to create sustainable cash flow from previously idle assets, shifting the industry focus from development and sales to long-term operations [6]. Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - Current challenges in the travel and residence sector include a lack of differentiation, inadequate facilities, and poor hygiene standards, which need to be addressed to enhance consumer experience [6]. - It is recommended to develop diverse, tiered products that cater to different consumer needs, ensuring a combination of short-term and long-term rental options, and improving service environments to foster repeat visits [6].

行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a new consumer group known as "migrant seniors," who are increasingly engaging in service consumption, particularly in travel and leisure sectors, as a response to government initiatives aimed at boosting service consumption and revitalizing the real estate market [2][4]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, proposing 12 measures to promote travel and residence services, including the development of destination cities and infrastructure improvements [2]. - In September 2025, nine departments jointly released policies to expand service consumption, outlining 19 tasks and selecting around 50 cities for pilot programs to explore innovative developments in the service consumption sector [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is characterized by high frequency, strong multiplier effects, and sustainable growth, playing a crucial role in expanding domestic demand and enhancing public welfare [4]. - By 2025, service retail sales are projected to grow by 5.5%, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by 4.5%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The development of travel services is uniquely positioned to address the issue of excess real estate inventory, aligning with government policies aimed at "digesting inventory and optimizing increments" in the real estate market [5]. - The government encourages the utilization of idle rural land and properties, with a focus on transforming them into operational assets that generate cash flow, thereby supporting the real estate market and expanding domestic demand [6]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Current challenges in the travel service sector include product homogeneity, lack of local elements, inadequate facilities, and poor hygiene standards, which need to be addressed to enhance consumer experience [6]. - The integration of travel services with real estate revitalization can lead to a shift in industry focus from "development and sales" to "long-term operations," fostering new growth points in related industries such as renovation, home services, and cultural tourism [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy benefits in the service consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of optimizing and expanding service supply to foster new growth points in service consumption. The government's plan includes 12 measures across key and potential areas, aiming to enhance service quality and support economic development [1][3]. - The focus on supply-side structural reforms is expected to stimulate both short-term and long-term consumer demand, promoting a virtuous cycle of employment, income, and consumption, thereby providing long-term support for economic growth [3][7]. - Key areas of focus include transportation, domestic services, cultural tourism, and sports events, with potential areas such as performance services and experiential consumption also highlighted for their growth potential [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support Areas - The report outlines three main policy support areas with twelve specific measures, including: 1. Transportation services aimed at integrating tourism and enhancing service quality [7]. 2. Domestic services focusing on innovation and skill training [7]. 3. Cultural tourism services that encourage infrastructure development and enhance consumer experiences [7]. Potential Growth Areas - The report identifies potential growth areas such as performance services, sports events, and experiential consumption, which are expected to drive demand in related sectors like accommodation and dining [3][7]. Financial and Structural Support - The report emphasizes the need for a robust support system, including the establishment of standards, credit building, and financial backing to ensure the stable development of service consumption [3][7].

展望2026年，赵伟认为，服务消费、"新"新基建与绿色投资将是影响全年经济走向的三大关键。服务消 费方面，伴随服务业开放政策的不断推进，被抑制的服务类需求有望得到有效释放。"新"新基建方面， 重点在于通过数字化、智能化手段，系统性降低社会物流成本，并通过强化都市圈交通枢纽功能、发展 多式联运，提升经济运行效率。绿色投资方面，围绕"双碳"目标，持续推进产业绿色化改造。 03:45 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂环境中稳步前行？申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟在接受 记者专访时表示，理解今年经济需把握"夯实基础、全面发力"八个字。"夯实基础"指的是对"十四五"以 来所构建的产业体系、市场基础和制度框架的巩固与深化。而"全面发力"意味着在发展与改革相关领 域，政策推进与落实的速度将会加快。 策划：黄蕾 统筹：徐蔚 作者：刘禹希 吴诗婷 ...

Macro Trends - The service consumption market in China is entering a new development stage, with per capita service consumption expenditure rising from 39.7% in 2013 to 46.1% in 2025[15] - The service retail market is projected to approach 30 trillion yuan by 2025, with the "happy life" consumption market exceeding 3 trillion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2021 to 2025[21] - National policies promoting consumption are frequently issued, aiming to stimulate service consumption and release its potential[19] Micro Consumption Insights - The trend of "saving happiness" is emerging, where consumers prefer low-cost experiences, such as 9.9 yuan classes, leading to a 151.9% increase in the supply of experience classes priced under 10 yuan[38] - "Experience alternatives" are gaining traction, with consumers opting for cost-effective services like shared massage chairs and budget accommodations, reflecting a rational attitude towards brand premiums[56] - "Value for emotion" consumption is on the rise, with a 112% increase in searches for healing-related services, indicating a shift towards emotional experiences over mere product functionality[71] Consumer Behavior Changes - The demand for skilled artisans is increasing, with 68% of hair salon users actively seeking information about stylists, highlighting the importance of personal branding in service retail[87] - "Low-cost socializing" is becoming popular among younger consumers, with self-service KTV and other automated services experiencing significant growth, including a 604% increase in transactions[102] - The trend of "returning to nearby" experiences is emerging, with urban micro-vacations becoming a new form of entertainment, leading to a 39.8% increase in comprehensive store numbers[152] Future Outlook - The service retail market is expected to transition from scale expansion to quality enhancement, driven by consumer demand, technological empowerment, and supportive policies[185]

日前，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，12项举措覆盖旅居、入境消 费、家政服务等重点服务消费领域。深圳市也于近日出台行动计划推动智能家居适配国产芯片与 AI接入，大力促进家居消费。一系列政策密集落地，为服务消费提质扩容按下"加速键"。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 让服务消费新政真正落地，既要做好"加法"，也要做好"减法"。加法方面，各地要结合实际出台 配套措施，完善标准体系与信用体系，加大财政金融对市场主体的支持，培育更多优质服务品 牌；企业要紧跟消费趋势，用技术创新打造更多消费新场景，提升服务质量。减法方面，要清理 消费领域的不合理限制，放宽市场准入，破除行业壁垒，让更多市场主体参与到服务消费供给中 来。 服务消费连着经济发展，更连着民生福祉。唯有把"提质惠民"放在核心位置，让政策红利转化为 百姓看得见、摸得着的消费体验，才能真正激发服务消费的内生动力，让服务消费成为扩大内 需、推动高质量发展的持久引擎。 本文原载于 ...