重阳说 2025年一季度的资本市场在一种叙事突变的氛围中开局。春节期间，Deepseek横空出世，让全球对中国硬 科技的突破刮目相看。电影院里，魔童哪吒大闹东海龙宫，票房连破纪录，闯进全球影史前五且尚未止步。 现实内外的交相辉映极大地提振了投资者的风险偏好，中国资产价值重估成为主流叙事，结构性牛市行情逐 渐清晰，指数攀升至3400点附近，此前重阳看好的泛科技、创新药等板块已经收获了一波涨幅。经过一季度 的修复，展望后市，政策与市场大的演绎方向是什么？结构性机会如何把握？本期"重阳S4"圆桌请出重阳投 资合伙人、战略研究部主管寇志伟以及基金经理谭伟、胡敏、陈奋涛、赵阳来进行一一解答。 "重阳S4"是重阳多位基金经理共同管理同一只基金这一模式的简称。具体来讲， 就是在公司投资决策委员会统 一的策略指引下，同一只基金通过分仓的方式由多位基金经理共同参与管理，每位基金经理在自己的分仓范 围内进行相对独立操作。实践证明，多基金经理共管模式能够帮助打造投资管理超级能力圈，实现投资业绩 可持续、投研能力可迭代、投资风格可复制、管理规模可拓展的目标。多基金经理共管模式起源于美国，已 经成为当今全球资管行业里大多数头部基金普遍 ...

中国 "美国例外论"退潮，全球最大资管看好中日股市！ 随着今年市场上关于美国例外论的叙事逐渐消退，日本和中国市场可能成为寻求回报的投资者的归属。 在贸易不确定性和经济前景黯淡的背景下，2025年美国市场一直动荡不安。近期股市的回调引发了这样 的讨论：对于投资者来说，将目光投向海外或许比寄希望于美国股市回升更为明智。在经历了多年的表 现不佳之后，国际股票突然成为焦点，其表现超过了美国同行。 根据贝莱德（BlackRock）的观点，有两个市场尤其值得投资者投入资金。 日本 这家全球最大的资产管理公司认为，日本公司的盈利前景有所改善。企业改革和温和的通胀将起到推动 作用，并且已经使得日本公司的股本回报率达到了峰值。贝莱德指出，日本公司的企业盈利能力最近达 到了40年来的最高水平。 上周，日本东证指数（Topix）上涨了3.3%，远超标普500指数0.5%的单周涨幅。 不过，贝莱德补充称，日元走强的可能性可能会削弱盈利前景。虽然日元升值的速度已经放缓，但交易 员们仍需关注日本的经济数据以及日本央行的行动。 就贝莱德而言，它仍然超配美国市场，押注人工智能主题带来的上涨空间以及更广泛的盈利增长。然 而，长期债券收益率的飙 ...

全球瞭望丨英媒：关税政策等打击"美国例外论" 新华社伦敦3月25日电（记者赵修知）英国《金融时报》网站日前刊文说，最近几周，由于美国关 税政策以及经济前景的不确定性，美国股市和美元齐跌，令"美国例外论"遭遇现实阻击。文章摘要如 下： 去年11月特朗普赢得美国总统选举后，美股和美元均大幅上涨。但今年1月以来，市场信心正快速 瓦解，特朗普政府对从主要贸易伙伴进口的产品加征高额关税并威胁采取更多措施，让投资者开始质疑 美国资产的优异表现还能持续多久。 美国加利福尼亚州教师退休基金首席投资官斯科特·陈表示，特朗普政府"令人震惊的大量行政 令"已导致"市场出现巨大不确定性"。"这些潜在风险前所未有。它们正在改变世界。" 今年以来，美元对一篮子货币已下跌4%，美国标准普尔500指数下跌近4%。高盛集团的研究显 示，华尔街股票和美元同时如此大幅度持续下跌并不寻常，在过去25年里只出现过几次。 这表明，投资者近年来押注美国经济跑赢其他经济体、争夺美国金融资产而导致其他主要市场受损 的情况正在发生逆转。近期美元和美股出现动荡，源于特朗普政府不断升级的贸易战动摇全球金融市 场，引发人们对世界最大经济体发展轨迹的担忧。 美国摩根资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shifts in global markets and U.S. economic policy, particularly focusing on the transition from Biden's economic strategies to Trump's proposed "Great Reset" aimed at addressing the issues left by the previous administration [2][9]. Group 1: Biden's Economic Cycle - The "Biden Cycle" involved massive fiscal stimulus post-pandemic, leading to high growth, high interest rates, and a booming stock market, which attracted foreign capital and supported a strong dollar [2][3]. - However, this cycle has two critical flaws: the risk of high debt and increasing wealth inequality, which could lead to a long-term depreciation of the dollar if the dual deficits exceed a certain threshold [3][6][8]. - The wealth disparity has worsened, with the top 10% benefiting from asset appreciation while the bottom 50% face rising costs of living, undermining the "American Dream" [7][8]. Group 2: Trump's Great Reset - Trump's approach, termed the "Great Reset," aims to reduce government spending, deregulate financial markets, and adjust international trade policies to revive the middle class [11][13][15]. - The reset seeks to shift the capital structure from financial to industrial capital, addressing the high debt levels by controlling new debt and restructuring existing debt [16][18]. - Key strategies include significant cuts to government spending, encouraging private sector leverage, and reintroducing tariffs to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. [13][14][15]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - The article highlights the potential for a significant shift in the dollar's role in global finance, as reduced U.S. trade deficits could lead to decreased demand for dollar assets, challenging the high valuations of U.S. equities [47][48]. - Trump's policies may lead to a scenario where the dollar loses its safe-haven status, with both the stock market and the dollar potentially declining together [50]. - The article warns of a "triple kill" risk for U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, particularly if the debt ceiling is resolved without debt restructuring, which could trigger market volatility [52]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - The potential for a "Hail Mary" approach, such as the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," could involve restructuring U.S. debt with other nations in exchange for tariff concessions [53]. - If traditional monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts fail, the Federal Reserve may resort to quantitative easing or yield curve control to stabilize the economy [54]. - The article concludes that the outcome of Trump's policies could either lead to a new era of prosperity or exacerbate existing issues, with significant implications for asset valuations and market stability [56][58].

他们补充说，"虽然股市调整在历史上并不罕见，但美元同时遭抛售却很罕见，尤其是在股市迅速重新 定价时。" 特朗普不断升级的贸易战动摇了全球金融市场，并引发了对世界最大经济体发展轨迹的担忧，在此背景 下，美国股市和美元近期均出现动荡。美联储上周下调了经济增长预测，并上调了通胀预期，而关税是 主要因素。 今年之前，由于市场预期美国经济将继续以快于竞争对手的速度增长，美国股市一直主导着全球市场。 FactSet数据显示，2023年至2024年，MSCI美国股票指数飙升54%，而MSCI除美国外全球发达市场股票 指数以美元计价仅上涨17%。 去年11月特朗普赢得选举后，美股进一步飙升，而美元则因押注亲商政策将提振经济增长，而关税最终 将被证明比特朗普当选总统时威胁的更为温和而上涨。但自特朗普1月就职以来，这些押注迅速瓦解， 特朗普对包括墨西哥、加拿大在内的主要贸易伙伴的进口商品征收高额关税，并威胁要进一步征收关 税，这促使华尔街银行质疑美国资产的优异表现还能持续多久。 华尔街纷纷质疑，现在押注美国恐非"明智之举"！ 近几周，由于特朗普关税带来的影响，以及对经济前景和地缘政治的不确定性，美元和股市出现异常持 久且深度的双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in global capital markets driven by two unexpected narrative shifts: the breakthrough of DeepSeek, which reshapes perceptions of Chinese innovation, and the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative under Trump's governance, prompting a reassessment of global geopolitical economics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Asset Revaluation - Since the beginning of the year, there has been little change in global economic fundamentals, but capital markets have experienced significant shifts, with Chinese stocks outperforming and the US dollar declining [3][4]. - As of March 14, the Hang Seng Tech Index, representing Chinese tech stocks, surged by 31.6%, leading global asset performance, while the Nasdaq index, which had previously led for three years, fell by 10% [3][4]. - The reversal in asset performance is attributed to the two narrative changes: the DeepSeek breakthrough and the challenges to the "American exceptionalism" narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Narrative Evolution and Its Impact - The article outlines the concept of narrative economics, emphasizing that successful narratives require elements such as personal relevance, repetition, narrative constellations, and self-reinforcement [5][6]. - DeepSeek exemplifies a successful narrative that has rapidly gained traction due to its low cost, high performance, and open-source advantages, symbolizing a break from Western technological monopolies [7][8]. - The geopolitical narrative has shifted since Trump's election, with initial optimism giving way to concerns over tariffs and immigration policies, leading to increased uncertainty in US economic policy [9][10]. Group 3: Capital Flow Dynamics - Over the past three years, global capital flows have been heavily influenced by the old narratives surrounding China and the US, with a notable outflow of foreign capital from China since 2022 [16][18]. - The share of foreign capital in China's A-share market has decreased from 10% in 2021 to approximately 7.5% currently, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [16][17]. - In contrast, the US market has seen significant inflows, totaling around $950 billion since 2022, driven by the popularity of the AI narrative [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The article posits that the current narrative changes may still be in their early stages, with potential for further asset revaluation and capital flow adjustments depending on the interaction between narratives and fundamentals [21][22]. - It outlines three potential phases for the evolution of the Chinese AI narrative: narrative strengthening, narrative realization, and narrative upgrading, each with corresponding implications for asset revaluation and capital flows [23][24][25]. - The company emphasizes the need for timely policy interventions to support economic recovery and investor confidence, particularly in real estate, local finance, and consumption [28].

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in global investor focus from the US technology sector to other areas, as signs of economic weakness emerge in the US, reminiscent of the early 2000s tech bubble [1][9][14] - In China, consumer sentiment is improving due to a recovery in real estate sales and optimistic income and employment expectations, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing and stock markets [2][23][27] - The report notes that the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and European markets is increasing, indicating a broader search for investment opportunities outside the US [1][19][22] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment themes, including a recovery in cyclical consumer sectors, resilience in non-ferrous metals, and opportunities in capital goods benefiting from fiscal expansion in China and Europe [4][47] - It emphasizes the potential for Chinese companies in the consumer sector to adapt to new market dynamics, with an increasing proportion of firms showing revenue growth surpassing retail sales growth [2][31][32] - The report discusses the geopolitical landscape, particularly the potential for reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine, which may benefit Chinese firms with strong overseas infrastructure capabilities [41][43][44]

当前定价如何？ 欧洲财政"觉醒"是当前欧系资产的主要驱动 ——德债收益率大涨，欧元升值，以及欧股更高的超额收益。 近期宏观逻辑的方向基本如当时报告撰写的"剧本"演绎：美国方面， 除了关税上的"摇摆"外， 特朗普政府在初期会引导偏紧的财政政策来控通胀和稳利率 。非美方面 ， 欧洲的俄乌局势和动荡政局会出现积极信号 。当然在"情节"上还是出现了"意外"，其中最出乎意料的可能就是近期俄乌冲突的进展—— 从纯 粹的地缘冲突发酵成欧洲"觉醒"的契机 。 欧洲"觉醒"的叙事给了全球资金流向变局的想象空间 ， 但光有想象空间不够，节奏和幅度对于投资可能更加重要。这背后有两个核心问题：一是 加国防军 工支出、德国财政扩张不等于欧盟的财政一体化 ，而缺乏一体化财政才是欧元资产的核心弱点； 其次增加的国防支出是主要用于发展本土军工还是用于进口 相关装备 ，还存在不确定性——如果是后者那可能利好的就是其他经济体，比如美国或中国。 我们认为 欧洲财政的持续推进不会一帆风顺 ，因此美元快速下跌可能已经接近尾声， 100 是非常强的支撑， 短期内要警惕的是美元的阶段性反弹，而后续 进展更有赖于美国和欧洲之间经济基本面的变化——今年欧洲的 ...

Group 1: Economic Context - The "American exceptionalism" narrative is being challenged as recent interest rate hikes have begun to tighten financial conditions, prompting market reflections on the implications of these changes[1] - The current liquidity environment in the U.S. remains relatively loose despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle, which saw a cumulative increase of 525 basis points from March 2022 to July 2023[2] Group 2: Household and Corporate Sector Analysis - The ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income for households is at 11.3%, slightly lower than the 11.7% level at the end of 2019, indicating strong consumer spending from 2022 to 2024[1] - In the corporate sector, the OAS spread on credit bonds has been declining since the second half of 2022, reflecting a historically loose credit environment and improved debt servicing metrics[2] Group 3: Upcoming Debt Maturities - A significant challenge is anticipated in Q2 2025, with over $600 billion in corporate debt maturing, marking a 70% increase compared to the average maturity in the second half of 2024[4] - The average financing cost for these maturing debts is estimated at 3.6%, while refinancing at current rates (approximately 5.5%) would increase financial costs by 190 basis points[4] Group 4: Liquidity Risks and Market Implications - The liquidity environment is expected to tighten as the Fed continues its balance sheet reduction, with the overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) significantly lower than in previous years[6] - Historical patterns suggest that credit spreads may widen significantly following the end of the current tightening cycle, with a notable risk of increased financing costs exceeding 200 basis points this year[6]

Core Viewpoint - The main theme of global asset allocation in the post-pandemic era is the "American exceptionalism," characterized by a lack of significant financial tightening despite the highest interest rate hike cycle since the 1970s, leading to questions about the real impact of these rate hikes on the economy and corporate operations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Resident Sector - The ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income is currently at 11.3%, lower than the 11.7% level at the end of 2019, indicating strong consumer spending from 2022 to 2024 [2]. Corporate Sector - The credit spread of corporate bonds has been declining since the second half of 2022, remaining at historical lows, which facilitates easy corporate financing. Profit growth has accelerated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and debt repayment metrics have improved [2][3]. Liquidity Environment - The liquidity premium in the U.S. has not reached extreme levels, indicating a generally loose liquidity environment. A significant risk event occurred in March 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) incident, but it was quickly addressed by the FDIC [2][3]. Debt Maturity Challenges - A significant issue arises as corporate bonds issued in 2020 will mature in large volumes by 2025, forcing companies to either refinance at higher costs or use cash reserves, which may lead to reduced capital expenditures [4][5]. Upcoming Liquidity Tightening - The second quarter of 2025 will see a historical peak in corporate debt maturities, with over $600 billion due, representing a 70% increase compared to the average for the second half of 2024. The average financing cost for these debts is estimated at 3.6%, while refinancing could increase costs by 190 basis points [5][6]. Potential Credit Spread Increase - The current liquidity environment is relatively fragile, and if it coincides with the debt maturity peak, there is a risk of a rapid increase in credit spreads. Historical data suggests that peaks in corporate bond spreads typically lag the last rate hike by about 24 months [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction - The liquidity buffer provided by the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) has significantly decreased, and the ongoing balance sheet reduction (QT) has led to a noticeable reduction in excess reserves within the banking system [7][8]. Debt Ceiling and Liquidity Risks - The approval of a new debt ceiling bill around mid-year could lead to a temporary tightening of liquidity. The U.S. Treasury has already utilized 70% of its "extraordinary measures" to maintain government operations, with a potential liquidity crunch expected around the "X-date" in June [8][9]. Market Expectations on QT - There are differing expectations in the market regarding the timing of the end of QT, with some Federal Reserve officials suggesting a pause until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. Delays in ending QT could further pressure liquidity [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The risk of tightening liquidity in the second quarter cannot be ignored, and U.S. equities may face another round of adjustments. Recent liquidity crises, such as the SVB incident, have shown that market reactions can be swift and significant [9].