目的就是为了增加自己的谈判筹码，好让中国放开管制的稀土，奈何中国始终不松口。 没成想，特朗普政府不想着如何和中国改善关系，反而在6月4日全面暂停12国公民进入美国，变相将盟 友推开。 前言 关税休战至今，特朗普政府依旧小动作不断，前一秒还在指责中国违反协议内容，下一秒自己却宣布拒 绝对华出口乙烷。 为何特朗普在关键时刻不去寻找盟友，反而将他们一脚踢开？美国对中国的管制真就一点办法没有吗？ 中美关税 大多数人聊贸易，会想到钢铁、汽车、芯片，可很少有人意识到，美国真正的痛点之一，便是深埋在土 壤里的稀土。 这东西不起眼，却是现代工业和国防的骨架。2025年5月出炉的一份国防报告，估计让华盛顿不少人倒 吸一口凉气。报告说得清楚，美国七成多军用设备，从战舰到最牛的F-35，关键材料都得指望某个特定 国家的稀土供应。 这不是可有可无的小零件，隐形战机得靠它做涂层，雷达离不开它，就连飞机引擎里抵抗高温的隔热 层，也是它的功劳。卡住这口稀土供应，等于是用一把手术刀，直接捅到了美国军工产业的心脏。它不 像炸弹那样引人注目，却能带来缓慢而致命的损害。 更让人捏把汗的是，全球重稀土市场，几乎全被那个国家攥在手里，份额高达99%。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月06日 隔夜金价震荡,白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行 新一轮会谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据普 遍偏弱后聚焦今晚非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空 间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价大幅波动，持续去库下伦铜短线突破9800美元，到目前美盘铜价已基本回撤隔夜涨幅。中 美领导人对话缓和贸易谈判气氛，美国4月进口额大幅下降；最新一期当周初请失业金人数显示失业 及人力成本压力升温。LME0-3月现货升水走扩至90美元,关注国内现货供求,沪铜夜盘跟涨、填补 清明缺口，昨日上海铜升水90元，广东贴水15元。前期空头择机换月，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。昨日铝锭社库减少1.5万吨，铝棒增加0.2万吨，去库速度有所放缓。需求面临 季节性转淡和贸易摩擦的考验,中美制造业PMI均处于荣枯线之下,抢出口消费前置后关注强现实是 否向弱预期转换。沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置存在阻力，逢高偏空参与。 (氧化 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Ministry of Finance has imposed anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide products from China, ranging from $460 to $681 per ton, effective for five years [1] - The export structure for Chinese titanium dioxide is expected to change, with India accounting for 16% of China's total exports in 2024, approximately 300,000 tons, and 20% in the first quarter of 2025, approximately 100,000 tons [1] - The competitive landscape among companies will begin to differentiate, with Longbai Group benefiting from the lowest tax rate, while smaller companies may lose market share in India due to higher duties [1] Group 2 - The anti-dumping duties will alter the supply dynamics in the Indian titanium dioxide market, which currently relies on Chinese imports for 65% of its total supply [2] - The price increase of Chinese titanium dioxide due to the duties may lead to higher costs for downstream industries in India, such as coatings and plastics [2] - In the short term, Chinese exports to India may decrease, and companies may pause shipments, while in the long term, there will be a push for global diversification and expansion into markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties reflects an increase in international trade friction, suggesting that Chinese titanium dioxide companies may face more trade barriers from other countries in the future [3] - The industry may undergo consolidation and reshuffling, with larger companies having a better chance of surviving market competition, while smaller firms may face the risk of elimination [3] - To cope with trade barriers and competition, Chinese titanium dioxide companies need to enhance technological innovation and industry upgrades, focusing on improving production efficiency and sustainability [3]

市场普遍预测，欧洲央行将在7月会议上暂时维持利率不变，并可能在9月再次降息。 数据显示，欧元区5月调和CPI同比增速降至1.9%，为2024年9月以来首次低于2%；核心通胀亦出现明显 放缓，至2.3%，创2022年1月以来新低，主要受服务类价格涨幅回落推动。薪资增速同步趋缓，减轻了 央行对工资推动型通胀的担忧。 当地时间6月5日，欧洲央行宣布将三大关键利率各下调25个基点，其中主要再融资利率降至2.0%。这 是自去年6月以来的第八次降息，符合市场此前预期。 声明指出，欧元区当前的整体通胀水平已接近央行设定的2%中期目标。在物价压力持续缓解的同时， 外围经济环境趋弱使增长前景承压，政策立场正转向更具灵活性的路径。 欧洲央行行长拉加德在新闻发布会上表示："在今天下调25个基点后，我们处于一个良好的位置。"她同 时补充称，"货币政策周期即将结束"。 此外，美国政府于5月31日宣布，将钢铁和铝进口关税从25%上调至50%，新一轮加征在6月4日正式启 动，或对欧洲出口造成进一步打击。 目前，欧盟多数出口商品已面临10%的临时性关税，若7月谈判破裂，关税上调将进一步打击制造业与 出口表现。德国总理默茨预计本周晚些时候在白 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a narrow upward fluctuation, trading around $3385.95 per ounce, following a 0.56% increase on June 4, closing at $3372.18 per ounce [2] - The decline in the US dollar index by 0.5% to 98.80 and the drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.629% to 4.365% have made gold more attractive to investors, supporting the price increase [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at $3355-58 and resistance at $3410-3420, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [5][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are under pressure, currently trading at $62.75 per barrel, influenced by rising gasoline and distillate inventories in the US, indicating weak demand [6] - The market is facing dual pressures from OPEC+ production increases and rising US inventories, leading to concerns about the recovery of global consumption [6] - Technical analysis suggests a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of testing lower levels around $50 after a period of consolidation [7]

【铜】 周四沪铜主力震荡收阳在7.8万上方，今日现铜微调到78415元,上海铜升水缩窄到90元,广东铜贴水15元。周 内SMM社库减少4200吨至14.88万吨。隔夜美国ADP就业与服务业PMI液软，但联储本月降息概率低，晚间关注ECB 利率动作与美国4月贸易账。反弹空配或主动换月。 【铝&氧化铝】 | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 工业培 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 多晶硅 | なな女 な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | ...

宏观方面，美国特朗普政府宣布提高钢铝关税至 50%，引发欧盟反制担忧，全球贸 易不确定性加剧，铝价短期承压。国内 5 月制造业 PMI 回升，出口指标改善，部分对 冲海外利空，限制铝价跌幅。 供需方面，国内电解铝运行产能达 4,319 万吨，接近 4,500 万吨政策天花板，西 南丰水期少量复产，但整体弹性不足。国网订单拉动铝线缆开工率高位，支撑短期刚 需。但光伏板块因抢装潮结束，型材订单明显下滑，汽车用铝预计 6 月中下旬走弱， 建筑地产用铝维持低迷。 技术方面，沪铝主力合约 2507 日内实体中阴线跌破均线系统，MACD 指标死叉。 BOLL 跌穿中轨，资金小幅减仓，日内空头力量偏强。 短期来看，宏观上受关税贸易摩擦压制影响，对铝价带来情绪上的利空驱动。若 需求端淡季表现过于疲软，价格或许继续向下试探。考虑到低库存以及出口抢运对价 格的支撑作用，预计铝价继续维持区间震荡运行。 撰写品种：沪铝 撰写时间:2025/06/03 回顾周期：日度 研究员： 曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铝日度报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日，沪铝主力合约价格下跌走势，成交量相比较上个交易日放量。 al2507 持仓量 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 二人八人 / / 07/0 00/0 / 0 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/6/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 를 | 现值 | 2073 | 1118 | 5172 | 1718 | 6243 | 1587 | | | 前值 | 1586 | 1107 | 3275 | 1720 | 4284 | 1317 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 30.68% | 0.92% | 57.92% | -0.12% | 45.73% | 20.50% | | 블 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has sparked strong opposition from trade partners [1][3] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly raise domestic prices, particularly affecting the automotive industry, where steel constitutes about 60% of a vehicle's weight, potentially increasing car prices by $2,000 to $4,000 [1][3] - The increase in tariffs may also impact prices of consumer goods such as beverages in aluminum cans and major home appliances like refrigerators and washing machines [1] Group 2 - The new tariff policy has already shown negative effects on global trade, with Germany's mechanical engineering sector reporting a 6% year-on-year decline in new orders due to U.S. tariff policies and uncertainty [3] - The chief economist of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association has indicated that the new tariffs have severely impacted global markets, leading to a decline in corporate investment sentiment [3] - The global trade landscape is facing significant challenges as the implications of the U.S. steel and aluminum tariff increase unfold, raising concerns about how countries will respond [3]

供需双压致油价走低：美国汽油库存暴增520万桶，欧佩克计划持续增产，沙特降价争夺市场份额，叠 加贸易摩擦抑制需求预期，国际油价承压下行。邓正红软实力表示，美国数据显示汽油和柴油库存出人 意料地大幅增加，欧佩克联盟增产导致供需平衡趋松，且关税紧张局势引发的全球经济前景担忧持续发 酵，供需两端挤压石油软实力，周三（6月4日）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克 萨斯轻质原油7月期货结算价每桶跌0.56美元至62.85美元，跌幅0.88%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月 期货结算价每桶跌0.77美元至64.86美元，跌幅1.17%。美国能源信息署（EIA）称，上周美国汽油库存 增加520 万桶，馏分油库存增加 420 万桶。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克联盟在未来几个月继续加 速石油增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。 宏观风险压制软实力扩张空间，贸易摩擦抑制需求预期。尽管美中计划元首通话，但特朗普政府持续指 责中国"违反协议"，叠加OECD下调全球增长预期，关税紧张局势持续发酵。贸易不确定性直接抑制原 油需求前景，加剧投资者对经济衰退的担忧。地缘政治博弈的复杂影响。伊朗宣布实现完整核燃料循 环，哈 ...