铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-7-25 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 给、 | 影 | 到 | 内 | 供 | 看， | 来 | 及 | 时， | 受 | 季 | 供 | 国 | 撑78000， | 优 | 以 | 撑78000 | 以 | 加 | 来 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前 | 断 | 淡 | 优 | 同 | 年 | 缩 | 增 | 面 | 构、 | 不 | 目 | 半 | 萎 | 比 | 方 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 构 ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-7-25 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 美 | 止 | 关 | 优 | 以 | 水 | 对 | 价 | 结 | 淡 | 截 | 数 | 年 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 于 | 存 | 场 | 铝 | 调 | 构、 | 求； | 整 | 半 | 处 | 位 | 引。 | 库 | 市 | 力 | 示， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 需 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 注20000 ...

Group 1 - Volkswagen reported a significant decline in Q2 profits and lowered its full-year guidance due to rising costs from U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump, impacting the profitability of its Audi and Porsche brands [1] - Q2 revenue for Volkswagen was €80.8 billion, a 3% year-over-year decrease, while operating profit fell to €3.83 billion, down 29% year-over-year [1] - The company expects a return on sales of 4% to 5% by 2025, down from a previous forecast of 5.5% to 6.5%, primarily due to increased costs of €1.3 billion (approximately $1.53 billion) in the first half of the year from U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - Volkswagen is facing pressure to cut costs and improve products amid crises in three key markets, with U.S. tariffs eroding sales and profits of its import-reliant Audi and Porsche brands [1] - The company anticipates flat revenue for the year, down from a previous forecast of a 5% increase, and has also lowered its free cash flow expectations [1] - Other automakers are also facing challenges, with Stellantis appointing a new CEO and Renault searching for a formal CEO, while Volkswagen looks to collaborate with Rivian Automotive and Xpeng Motors to enhance its product lineup [2] Group 3 - Volkswagen's truck transportation division, Traton SE, lowered its performance expectations due to trade tensions, weak economic growth in Europe, and declining orders in Brazil, with adjusted operating performance down 29% in Q2 [2] - Despite challenges, Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales in Europe saw a 73% increase in Q2, driven by strong demand for models like the ID.5, Audi Q4 e-tron, and Skoda Enyaq [2]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade negotiations led by the US have made significant progress, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15% and approaching a deal with the EU to maintain a 15% tariff on US-bound goods, avoiding a potential increase to 30% [1] - The easing of trade tensions has decreased market concerns about global trade friction, resulting in a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 41,000 points and US stock indices reaching record highs [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged past $3,400 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields but later retreated following positive trade news, with New York gold futures reported at $3,363.3 per ounce, down 0.30% [4] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that US tariff policies could increase inflation and harm the global economy, indicating ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has decreased, with recent negotiations yielding some consensus on prisoner exchanges, although significant differences remain regarding ceasefire agreements [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and US tariff negotiations with other economies, continue to be critical areas of focus [9] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September, which could influence gold prices depending on the signals released [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including an increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China for eight consecutive months [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a "gold +" investment strategy to enhance portfolio resilience, with historical data indicating that gold has outperformed many mainstream assets over the past 20 years [10] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term prospects remain bullish due to supportive factors such as policy easing and geopolitical risks [10]

全球贸易格局正面临重大变化，美欧之间的贸易摩擦已进入关键时刻。美国威胁对欧盟商品征收高达30%的关税，而欧盟则准备启动强力反制措施。与此同 时，金融市场对贸易局势的变化反应激烈，黄金价格出现大幅波动。 欧盟准备强力反制措施 面对美国的强硬态度，欧盟正积极筹备一系列反制措施。欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示，如果谈判破裂，欧盟计划迅速对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商 品加征关税。这一反制方案将把此前针对210亿欧元美国商品的关税清单与涵盖720亿欧元美国商品的额外关税清单合并。 美欧贸易谈判陷入僵局 美国总统特朗普威胁自8月1日起对欧盟产品加征30%关税，这一税率被欧盟贸易执委谢夫乔维奇形容为"几乎阻断"跨大西洋贸易的毁灭性举措。欧盟原本期 待通过谈判达成协议，使大部分输美产品维持10%的关税水平，但美方在会谈中提出的方案税率远高于这一基准。 欧盟外交官透露，美国谈判代表之间缺乏一致性，每个人似乎都有自己的想法。美方还断然拒绝了欧盟提出的"冻结"安排，即在达成协议后不再加征新关 税。美国以"国家安全"为由，援引《232条款》对医药、半导体、木材等产品发起贸易调查，声称特朗普在国家安全问题上不能受到任何约束。 欧盟 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Germany is shifting from a dialogue-based approach to a more hardline stance against the U.S. due to escalating tariffs, aligning more closely with France's call for strong countermeasures [1][2][5] - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1, with existing tariffs on steel and aluminum at 50% and on automobiles at 25%, significantly impacting EU exports [2][4] - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., is facing substantial pressure, with exports to the U.S. dropping 7.7% in May, marking a three-year low [4][5] Group 2 - The European Commission is considering activating a coercive tool to impose trade and investment restrictions on countries attempting to pressure EU member states economically [3] - Experts suggest that the U.S. may be overestimating its negotiating leverage, as many German high-end industrial products have no substitutes in the U.S. market [6] - Despite the hardening stance, both the U.S. and EU are still open to negotiations, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [6]

摘要在7月24日的亚洲交易时段，一则重磅利好消息传来——美日成功达成协议，且美欧也渐近达成 15%关税协议。受此积极因素提振，市场对于贸易摩擦的忧虑情绪显著缓解。随着避险需求的迅速降 温，美债收益率呈现全线攀升态势；现货黄金价格跌破3380美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅为0.20%；与此同 时，现货白银亦出现短线急跌行情，日内跌幅高达1.00%，当前报价定格于38.84美元/盎司。 在7月24日的亚洲交易时段，一则重磅利好消息传来——美日成功达成协议，且美欧也渐近达成15%关 税协议。受此积极因素提振，市场对于贸易摩擦的忧虑情绪显著缓解。随着避险需求的迅速降温，美债 收益率呈现全线攀升态势；现货黄金价格跌破3380美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅为0.20%；与此同时，现货 白银亦出现短线急跌行情，日内跌幅高达1.00%，当前报价定格于38.84美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 据了解谈判情况的外交官透露，欧盟与美国正朝着达成协议的方向迈进，该协议将对大多数产品设定 15%的关税税率。外交官表示，成员国可能准备接受15%的关税，且欧盟官员正推动将这一税率涵盖汽 车等行业。 其中一位外交官补充称，超过一定配额的钢铁和铝进口将面临5 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently trading around $3,390, influenced by reduced trade friction concerns following agreements between the US and Japan, and the EU and the US nearing a 15% tariff agreement [1][3] - The market's risk appetite has increased, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by $44.44, or 1.3%, closing at $3,387.22 per ounce [3] - Since April, the US has imposed an additional 10% tariff on EU exports, while the average tariff on EU products was previously 4.8% [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a slightly strong oscillating trend, with recent price movements suggesting a potential for upward adjustments [5] - The daily chart shows that gold prices have completed a pullback after breaking through previous resistance levels, with short-term moving averages indicating a bullish divergence [5] - Hourly trends indicate that gold is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations, but signs of technical recovery are emerging, suggesting that adjustments may be nearing completion [5]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 24 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2509 | 4784 | 12 | 1171328 | -19480 | | TA2601 | 4780 | 16 | 289 | -19480 | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 23日PTA主力期货 TA2509收盘价4784元/吨，上涨 12元/吨，涨幅 0.25%， 结算价 4808 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 24 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...