（原标题：2026年货币政策定调：促进物价合理回升 灵活高效降准降息） 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议明确要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 多名受访人士告诉记者，本次会议提出"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，延续了去年中央经济工作会 议的基调，表明我国在"十五五"开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量发展。 关于总量型货币政策工具，会议表述由去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具"，表明2026年降准降息仍有空间，但在中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期调节"的背景下，发力可 能会更加审慎。 会议还明确引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，这意味着相关领域的 结构性货币政策工具有望再度实现"量增价降"。 值得注意的是，本次会议对物价水平的关注程度显著提升，明确提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a clear direction for financial work in 2026 [1] - The conference highlighted the need for macroeconomic policies to focus on both existing and new policies, enhancing the effectiveness and consistency of macro policy orientation [1][2] - Analysts noted that the emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" suggests that macro policy formulation will prioritize long-term economic development rather than short-term stimulus effects [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference called for a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with an expected increase in new government debt to around 12.5 trillion yuan for 2026 [2] - It was stated that the monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2][3] - The emphasis on maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level was also noted as part of the monetary policy considerations [2] Group 3: Focus on Inflation and Prices - The conference acknowledged a heightened focus on price levels, with a commitment to promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [3] - Analysts expect potential simultaneous cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in early 2026, although the extent of these cuts may be limited [3][4] - The need for a balanced approach to fiscal deficits and total debt levels was reiterated, indicating a cautious stance on monetary easing [3][4] Group 4: Key Economic Tasks - The conference identified eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, with a primary focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market [6] - Specific measures to boost consumption include implementing special actions to stimulate consumption and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [6][7] - Investment strategies will involve increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to stimulate private investment [6][7] Group 5: Financial Sector Reforms - The conference outlined the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, particularly focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized financial institutions [7][8] - There is a push for the consolidation and restructuring of rural small and medium banks to improve their adaptability and competitiveness in serving local economies [8] - The emphasis on creating a distinctive financial service system for technological innovation indicates a strategic direction for financial institutions to better support industry development [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a clear direction for financial work in 2026 [1][3]. Financial Policy Direction - The conference highlights the need for a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties [5][6]. - It is projected that the new government debt scale for 2026 may increase to approximately 12.5 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate maintained at around 4.0%, reflecting an increase of about 200 billion yuan from the previous year [6]. Monetary Policy Approach - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6][7]. - The emphasis on price levels has increased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in November, indicating a potential for further monetary easing [6]. Key Economic Tasks - The conference identifies eight key tasks for economic work, with a focus on domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026 [10]. - Specific actions include implementing measures to boost consumption, such as increasing funding for consumption from 300 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan, and expanding support for service consumption [11]. Investment and Innovation - The conference aims to stabilize investment by increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of special bonds, which is expected to enhance market expectations and restore overall investment willingness [11]. - Emphasis is placed on innovation-driven growth, with a focus on developing a technology finance system that supports technological innovation and industry development [12]. Financial Institution Reform - The conference calls for deepening the reform of small and medium financial institutions to enhance their competitiveness and mitigate risks, which is a crucial part of the financial supply-side structural reform [12][13]. - Specific measures include promoting mergers and restructuring of rural small and medium banks to improve their service adaptability and competitiveness [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference highlighted five "musts" focusing on economic potential, policy support, and the integration of investment in goods and people, emphasizing the importance of internal demand and risk prevention in real estate [2][3][6]. Group 1: Five "Musts" - The five "musts" include fully tapping economic potential, balancing policy support with reform innovation, ensuring effective management alongside flexibility, integrating investment in goods and people, and strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges [3][11]. - The first "must" emphasizes expanding internal demand and finding technological breakthroughs for new growth [3][11]. Group 2: Cross-Cycle Adjustment - The conference stressed the importance of cross-cycle adjustments, advocating for a combination of existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [4][12]. - It was noted that the integration of existing and new policies is crucial for effective economic management [4][12]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is to be continued, with a fiscal deficit target potentially remaining above 4.0% for 2024, indicating a shift towards expansionary fiscal measures [5][14]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with the possibility of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support liquidity [5][14]. Group 4: Key Tasks for the New Year - The primary tasks for the upcoming year include expanding internal demand, advancing high technology, and implementing reforms, with internal demand being crucial for countering external risks [6][15]. - The focus on real estate is primarily on risk prevention rather than aggressive stimulus measures, indicating a cautious approach to avoid systemic risks [6][15]. Group 5: Economic Goals and Inflation - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 5.0%, with a focus on supporting consumption, stabilizing investment, and expanding openness [7][16]. - The notion of "reasonable price recovery" does not necessarily imply significant price increases for domestic goods, as inflation metrics like CPI and core CPI have shown upward trends without a corresponding rise in commodity prices [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for China to maintain a stable yet progressive economic approach, focusing on high-quality development and effective policy implementation as it transitions into the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][5][16]. Economic Context - The past five years have seen China effectively navigate various challenges, achieving significant accomplishments as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, setting a solid foundation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [4][15]. - Despite achievements, challenges remain, including external economic uncertainties and internal structural issues that need to be addressed for sustainable growth [4][15]. Policy Directions - The conference highlighted the importance of enhancing macroeconomic policy consistency and effectiveness, advocating for a combination of supportive policies and reform innovations [6][17]. - A more proactive fiscal policy is proposed, with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures, while addressing local fiscal difficulties [6][17]. Key Tasks for 2026 - Eight key tasks were identified for the upcoming year, including: 1. Strengthening domestic demand and building a robust domestic market 2. Accelerating innovation to foster new growth drivers 3. Promoting reforms to enhance high-quality development 4. Expanding international cooperation 5. Coordinating urban-rural integration and regional development 6. Leading green transformation in line with carbon neutrality goals 7. Prioritizing public welfare and improving services for citizens 8. Safeguarding against risks in key sectors [7][18]. Focus on Consumption - Consumption is prioritized as a key component of domestic demand, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity, expanding the supply of quality goods and services, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [8][19]. Innovation and Technology - Innovation is positioned as a core driver for high-quality development, with a focus on nurturing new industries and enhancing competitiveness through technological advancements [10][21]. - The conference calls for targeted development in key sectors such as artificial intelligence, digital trade, and green technologies to create a favorable policy environment for industry growth [9][20].

华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 锚定提质增效，聚力八大任务 事件： 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。习近平总书记在重要讲话 中总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 主要政策解读： （1）政策协同发力锚定提质增效核心。"逆周期调节"旨在熨平短期经济波 动，而"跨周期调节"则着眼于中长期的结构优化与风险防范。财政和货币 政策双宽松旨在有效对冲内需不足的压力，为"十五五"实现良好开局营造 充裕的流动性环境和需求支撑。 （2）八大重点任务攻坚，夯实高质量发展底盘。会议部署的八大重点任务构 建起全方位发展布局，既聚焦核心动力培育，也注重发展活力激发，更强化 底线思维落实，系统回应了当前经济的主要矛盾。会议将"坚持内需主导， 建设强大国内市场"置于首位，并提出了从需求端到供给端、从消费到投资 的一揽子具体措施，标志着扩内需战略从宏观定调进入精细化实施阶段。 "对内改革攻坚"破除体制机制障碍、"对外扩大开放"拓展发展空间，形 成内外协同、双向赋能的发展格局，为高质量发展注入持久动力。"协调发 展"和"双碳引领"两大重点任务的推进将共同指 ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日两只新股申购。 5．中国汽车工业协会12月11日发布的最新数据显示，11月份，我国汽车产销延续良好表现，生产供给 依然保持较快节奏，产销量环比、同比均实现增长。最新数据显示，11月份，我国汽车月度产量首次超 过350万辆，创历史新高。不仅如此，今年前11个月，汽车产销量均超过3100万辆，同比增长均超过 10%。中国汽车工业协会的最新数据同时显示，今年1至11月，我国新能源汽车产销量均接近1500万 辆，同比增长均超过30%。在出口方面，新能源汽车出口231.5万辆，同比增长1倍。 6．《辽宁省冰雪旅游高质量发展三年行动计划（2025—2027年）》公开征求意见。其中提到，充分挖 掘辽宁冰雪文化内涵，健全完善专业型、爱好型、大众型三级产品体系，持续创新"冰雪+""+冰雪"多元 业态与消费场景，构建层次清晰、特色鲜明的辽宁冰雪旅游发展新格局，塑造具有辽宁辨识度的大众冰 雪旅游品牌。培育省级以上滑雪旅游度假地10个，打造冰雪旅游精品线路10条以上，冰雪旅游综合消费 带动效应显著增强，辽宁冰雪品牌影响力全面提升。力争到2027年，全省冰雪旅游年接待人次突破2.6 亿，年综合收入达到2500亿 ...

中央经济工作会议于10日至11日在北京召开，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 值得注意的是，会议五次提到"金融"。会议明确要"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小 微企业等重点领域"，同时还要"继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用""创新科技金融服务"并"深入推进中 小金融机构减量提质"，为2026年金融工作指明了方向。 财政货币政策继续协同发力 会议明确，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三 保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，会议明确"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，与明 年经济工作要"提质增效"的整体基调相互呼应。温彬预计，在"更加积极"的财政政策取向下，2026年新 增政府债务规模或进一步提升至12.5万亿元左右，以支撑广义财政支出强度、兜牢基层"三保"底线；赤 字率维持在4.0%左右水平，对应赤字规模约为5.9万亿元，较上年增加约2000亿元，增加部分主要由中 央承担 ...

Monetary Policy Overview - The central economic work conference held on December 10-11 maintained a policy tone of "moderate easing," emphasizing the efficiency and proactivity of policy tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The macro policy orientation shifted from "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," indicating a focus on long-term economic cycle changes [2] Policy Implementation Characteristics - Throughout 2025, the monetary policy maintained a consistent moderate easing tone, with RRR cuts and interest rate reductions implemented to ensure stable funding rates [3] - Fiscal policy was notably proactive in 2025, with significant government bond issuance and increased fiscal spending in the first half of the year, aligning with the macro policy orientation [3] Core Objectives and Framework - The core objectives of monetary policy include enhancing expectations management, with increased flexibility in total monetary operations to address economic risks and uncertainties [4] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial, aiming to create a conducive environment for stable financial markets and successful government bond issuance [4] - A new policy interest rate transmission mechanism and liquidity management framework were established, focusing on reforming the monetary policy transmission mechanism [5] Future Outlook - For 2026, the focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing risks while emphasizing expectations management and fiscal coordination [5] - The first half of 2026 may see a need for total easing operations to lower social financing costs and stabilize expectations due to high growth base effects [5] - The central bank is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds through a 0.5 percentage point RRR cut in early 2026, alongside continued use of MLF and reverse repos for medium-term liquidity [6] Interest Rate Dynamics - The central bank's interest rate reduction space has opened up due to the Federal Reserve's continuous rate cuts, with expectations for a 10 basis point reduction in the policy rate in both the first and second halves of 2026 [7] - By the end of 2026, the 7-day reverse repo policy rate is projected to decrease to 1.2%, with the LPR also expected to follow suit [7]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 11, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 118.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains loose, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate dropping over 1 basis point to around 1.27%, marking a new low for the phase [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system stabilized at 1.25% after a drop, indicating ample supply; non-bank institutions' pledging of credit bonds for overnight funding is quoted around 1.45% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.93% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among national and major joint-stock banks is around 1.66%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds have shown slight changes, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.3875%, down 0.25 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 1.7090%, down 0.75 basis points [9] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also reflect minor fluctuations, indicating a stable bond market environment [9] Group 5: Central Economic Work Conference - The conference held on December 10-11 emphasized a policy direction focused on stability and quality improvement, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels [13] - Key tasks for the upcoming year include promoting domestic demand, fostering innovation, enhancing high-quality development, and addressing local government debt risks [14] Group 6: Global Macro Insights - South Korea plans to strengthen market monitoring due to rising government bond yields and concerns over foreign exchange volatility [17] - Japan is set to introduce tax incentives to stimulate capital expenditure, reflecting a broader trend of fiscal support in the region [18]