12 月政治局会议传递的信号 20251209 中国政策重心转向高质量发展，不再片面追求经济增速，更强调结构调 整和增长质量，预计"十五"期间经济增长中枢在 4.5%左右，2026 年 增长目标或设在 5%左右。 财政政策将维持积极态势，赤字率或小幅提升至 4%-4.2%，专项债规 模预计与预算持平或略增，但特别国债和超长期特别国债的使用将适度 收缩。 货币政策延续适度宽松基调，但除非外部环境剧变，否则宽松力度有限， 结构性政策工具将继续发力，重点支持科技、绿色等领域，以促进物价 合理回升和金融稳定。 国际经贸方面，中国将灵活应对外部环境变化，若外需承压，将加大逆 周期调节力度。尽管中美关系波动可控，但需警惕欧洲和日本可能出现 的贸易摩擦对中国出口的影响。 消费刺激策略将从耐用品消费扩展到养老消费等新领域，以维持当前消 费水平并开辟新的增长点。政府侧重通过提升服务业供给来挖掘消费潜 力，而非直接刺激需求。 Q&A 摘要 如何解读 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的经济信号？ 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的主要经济信号可以从逆周期与跨周期相结合的 视角进行解读。在中美博弈、社会稳定、结构转型和经济增长四个层次中 ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 112.300 | 112.670 | 112.750 | 112.610 | 0.450 | 0.40 | ...

昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3079元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌44元/ 吨，跌幅为1.41%，持仓增加11.6万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10元/吨至2940元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌30元/吨至3180元/吨，全国建材成交量9.26万吨。中央 政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对2024年会议未再提"超常规"，但提 了"跨周期"，或预示2026年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能性有所降低。煤焦 价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为 主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所下跌，收于757.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌3元/吨，跌 幅为0.4%，成交24万手，增仓1.2万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉784持平，超特粉 673涨5。供应端，澳洲发运量止降回升，巴西发运量有所下降，其他国家发运量有所增加。需求端，铁 水产量环比下降至232.2万吨。库存端，47个港口进口铁矿库存、钢厂库存继续累库。短期来看，矿价 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨会速递 | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 951.54 | -0.75 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2418 | -3.59 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 91090 | -2.02 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23070 | -0.92 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 21775 | -2.24 | | SHFESHFE 镍 | 117350 | -0.58 | | | 海外市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 恒生指数 | 25434.23 | -1.29 | | 国企指数 | 8936.41 | -1.62 | | 道琼斯 | 47560.29 | -0.38 | | 标普 500 | 6840.51 | -0.09 | | 纳斯达克 | 23576.49 | 0.13 | | 德国 DAX | 24153.30 | 0.45 | | 法国 CAC | 8052.51 | -0.69 | | 日经 225 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including policy, economic data, and international events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors are advised to pay attention to specific events and data changes in each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver rose sharply above the $60 mark, mainly boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the precious metals have fully priced in the rate cuts, so over - chasing the rise is not recommended [1][13]. - Investment advice: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting to land. Gold will show a volatile trend, and silver may face a risk of high - level decline, with increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset's statement that the Fed has a large space for interest - rate cuts implies an unexpected easing, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in a volatile manner [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job openings reached a five - month high, but the employment market still shows a weakening trend, and the US economy continues to face downward pressure. The market has fully priced in the December rate cut, and the market has become cautious before the interest - rate meeting [20]. - Investment advice: The three major stock indexes will fluctuate at high levels. Pay attention to the callback risk after the short - term profit - taking after the interest - rate meeting [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has corrected, mainly affected by policies. The Political Bureau meeting emphasizes cross - cycle adjustment, and the stock market expectations have been revised down. The more detailed deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference is worth attention [22][24]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The market sentiment has improved, and treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The bond market is entering a mild recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continued to fluctuate and decline. The market is weak due to the lack of obvious policy increments in the Political Bureau meeting and the weakening of cost support from the decline of coking coal and coke prices. Short - term steel prices still have the risk of decline [27]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and decline. Adopt an overall volatile thinking [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 5 increased, but the data cannot represent the overall December production. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to gradually ease in December [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MPOB November report. After the report is released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract on dips [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The near - month main contract of hogs rose rapidly and showed a high - level shock. However, the short - term supply pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and there is still a risk of price decline [31]. - Investment advice: Consider lightly shorting the near - month contract; treat the far - month contract with a short - term range thinking and control position risks [31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are stable. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term inventory pressure of starch remains acceptable [32][34]. - Investment advice: Maintain range operation for the rice - flour price difference [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - After the rumor of the reserve auction, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price continued to decline. The impact of the reserve auction is expected to be limited [35]. - Investment advice: The decline of spot and 01 contracts is expected to be limited, while 03 and 05 contracts may be weaker. Pay attention to policy regulation and expected differences [36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is weak. The demand for power plant stockpiling has weakened, and the coal price has fallen rapidly with the accumulation of inventory. If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year [37]. - Investment advice: If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year. Pay attention to daily consumption and port inventory [38]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices weakened with the overall black fundamentals. The port inventory is rising, and the iron - making molten iron output is expected to decline. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [39]. - Investment advice: The iron - making molten iron output is expected to fall to around 2.28 million tons from the end of December to early January. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [40]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME and SHFE lead prices fluctuated and declined. There is still a risk of delivery. The demand side is strong, and the fundamentals of lead remain strong. Observe the volume of delivery [41]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, stop profit for short - term long positions and observe the delivery volume; for arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc prices fluctuated and corrected. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the supply decreased significantly. The demand for zinc may increase marginally. High - level partial profit - taking is recommended for long positions [42]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, partially stop profit for long positions to avoid macro - level fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the long - short spread position and wait and see for the internal - external spread [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company was registered. The fundamentals of polysilicon are not optimistic, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the price adjustment [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: The spot price may be difficult to fall. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the futures market after the discount to the spot price, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not optimistic. There is a short - term buying support, but there is a lack of upward drive. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals are worse than expected. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Pay attention to the Fed's and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decisions. The price of nickel iron is expected to rise slightly, and the short - term bottom of the pure nickel price has been reached. [49][50] - Investment advice: Unilaterally, consider lightly going long on dips. Pay attention to the change of the Indonesian nickel ore price and the RKAB approval limit [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global key mineral competition will reshape the 2026 market pattern. The short - term macro - level risk aversion sentiment suppresses copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term [51][53]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, wait patiently for the opportunity to go long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown signed a supply agreement with Tianhua New Energy. The current supply - side impact is controllable, but future supply - side disturbances should be vigilant. The real - side situation may weaken in the short term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Lightly short on highs in the short term, and consider going long on dips after the risk of the off - season decline is released [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of overseas tin ore is unstable, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and be cautious about the risk of high - level decline [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips, but do not chase the rise. Be cautious about the price decline caused by the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflows [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA slightly raised the forecast of US crude oil production this year and lowered the forecast for next year. Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state [63][64]. - Investment advice: Maintain a volatile trend in the short term [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a short - term shock. The impact of the carry - over policy may be more emotional than substantial. Enterprises in need can buy on dips [66][67]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate in the short term [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the coal price decline also drags down the PVC price. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve [69][70]. - Investment advice: The PVC price will maintain a low - level shock pattern. Chasing short is not cost - effective [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is partially declining. The supply is high, the demand is not significantly improved, and the overall supply - demand is still loose. The short - term price may continue to be weak [71][72]. - Investment advice: The short - term price may continue to be weak. Pay attention to whether the profit compression can lead to supply reduction [72]. 3.2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The tender of the largest port in Brazil is unfavorable to Maersk and MSC. The demand has improved in the peak season, but the freight rate increase may be weak. The short - term price may decline in a volatile manner [73][74]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a weak - volatile thinking in the short term and wait and see [74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the retail industry in fostering a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic circulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for a shift towards quality and service-driven growth [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts amid internal disagreements, with market pricing indicating a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with plans for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities such as government bonds, oils, and copper, noting that the 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.83% [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [2][10] - In the oil market, palm oil prices have shown slight increases, while soybean oil prices are under pressure due to improved supply expectations [3][27] Group 3 - The article discusses the copper market, indicating a continued tight supply of concentrates and a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [18] - The article also mentions the performance of various commodities, including a decline in aluminum prices due to uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate cuts and a slight decrease in zinc prices amid stable supply [20][19] Group 4 - The article outlines the recent developments in the agricultural sector, particularly in soybean planting in Brazil, which has reached 86% completion, and the impact of this on global supply dynamics [26] - It also notes that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand and limited supply, despite some pressure from macroeconomic factors [29]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in the 30-year treasury futures, with the 30-year treasury yield rising over 7 basis points to above 2.25% and the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.8480% [1] - The widening gap between the 30-year and 10-year treasury yields is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of new fund redemption fees, anticipated steady growth policies, and a decrease in monetary easing expectations [1][6] - Institutional profit-taking pressure is significant as the year-end approaches, contributing to the sell-off in the long-end bond market [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influencing the bond market, with expectations for steady growth impacting market sentiment directly [2] - The central government's emphasis on implementing more proactive macro policies indicates a supportive stance for economic growth, despite the lack of specific targets [4] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption remains a key policy direction, with an emphasis on innovation and technology [4][5] Group 3 - The overall policy framework for the upcoming year is expected to prioritize broad fiscal expansion, with monetary easing complementing fiscal efforts [5] - There is a strong mid-term expectation for economic stabilization, although the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is limited [5][6] - The bond market sentiment remains under pressure, with the 10-year treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.85% and 1.9%, while the 30-year treasury yield has limited upward movement potential [6][7] Group 4 - The year-end selling pressure from banks to realize gains on older bonds is likely to constrain the upward movement of the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is weak, with expectations that the 30-year treasury futures will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating pattern [7] - The potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut may enhance the strength of the short-end bond market, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨张星 中央政治局会议定调， 2026年的货币政策基调仍是适度宽松。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚 持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政 策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 对于适度宽松的货币政策如何落实，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在不久前的2025金融街论坛年 会上已有所表态。潘功胜当时表示，央行将继续坚持支持性的货币政策立场，实施好适度宽 松的货币政策， 综合运用多种货币政策工具 ，提供短期、中期、长期流动性安排，保持社会 融资条件相对宽松。同时， 继续完善货币政策框架 ，强化货币政策的执行和传导。 "加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的提法也颇受市场关注。 多名受访经济学家告诉记 者，逆周期调节与跨周期调节是宏观经济调控中两种互补的政策工具，前者侧重短期 经济波动的对冲，后者则更注重长期结构性问题的化解。此次重提跨周期调节，可见 经济的长期稳定发展更多地被纳入考量，未来政策重心或从短期稳增长转向兼顾中长 期结构优化。 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 青岛银行 ...

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 中央政治局会议定调，2026年的货币政策基调仍是适度宽松。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 "此外，本次会议还重点强调了'提质增效'，"芦哲认为，这意味着2026年货币政策将更加注重在多目标间寻求平衡，既要保持流动性充裕和融 资条件适度宽松，也要防范资产价格大幅波动，并引导金融资源更多流向国民经济薄弱环节，提升货币政策传导的精准性与有效性。 青岛银行首席经济学家刘晓曙向记者表示，12月中央政治局会议中的货币政策定调呈现出两个"不变"与三大"调整"。"不变"主要体现在两个方 面：一是延续"适度宽松"的总体基调，降准降息等总量型工具仍有运用空间；二是结构性工具支持重点领域的导向未发生改变。 对于适度宽松的货币政策如何落实，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在不久前的2025金融街论坛年会上已有所表态。潘功胜当时表示，央行将继续坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，实施好适度宽松的货币政策 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。这是中央经济工作会议的前瞻会议， 为明年中国经济发展确定方向。 2025年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经 济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年 奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。 "从会议来看，宏观政策操作仍以宽松为基调，但体现出显著的政策'效能'大于政策'规模'的特征。"远 东资信研究院副院长张林告诉《华夏时报》记者。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟也在解读会议内容时对《华夏时报》记者表示，稳中求进的表述指向 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，经济增速目标设置在5%左右的概率较大。 宏观政策微调 "十四五"时期，我国在复杂严峻的内外环境中迎难而上，为"十五五"时期的发展奠定了坚实的基础。 不过，中国人 ...