Core Viewpoint - The bond market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by significant issuance expansion and interest rate volatility, with expectations of a fluctuating market in the second half [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Issuance and Structure - The total issuance in the bond market exceeded 27 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 24% [2]. - Interest rate bonds accounted for nearly 40% of the total issuance, with government bonds at 7.89 trillion yuan and local government bonds at 5.49 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 49.11%, which is 10.82 percentage points faster than the same period last year [2]. - The net financing scale of interest rate bonds surged, with government bonds net financing reaching 3.4 trillion yuan, approximately double that of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 30 basis points in the first quarter, reaching a high of 1.89% before falling to around 1.65% by the end of the second quarter, forming a "V" shape [3]. - The interbank 7-day pledged repo rate (DR007) decreased from approximately 2.3% at the beginning of the year to below 1.7%, indicating a shift from a "tight balance" to a "relatively loose" liquidity environment [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook for the Second Half - The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the second half, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the balance between supply pressure from interest rate bonds and expectations of monetary policy easing will influence market dynamics [4]. - The net financing scale of interest rate bonds in the second half is estimated to be around 6.88 trillion yuan, with a monthly average of 1.15 trillion yuan, close to the levels of the same period in 2023 [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a balanced investment approach, focusing on both short-term liquidity and long-term value in interest rate bonds, while capturing opportunities in a flattening yield curve [5]. - In the credit bond market, there is a positive trend with a focus on high-quality local government bonds, financially stable state-owned real estate companies, and stable city commercial bank secondary capital bonds [5]. - Investors are advised to maintain flexibility in their portfolios, managing duration risk while seizing structural opportunities across different varieties and maturities [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the 中证500质量成长指数 has shown a positive trend, with a 0.66% increase as of July 8, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as 景旺电子 (up 9.38%) and 华测检测 (up 5.94%) [1] - The 500质量成长ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, with an increase of 27.11 million yuan over the past three months, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [1] - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the central bank and a focus on "stabilizing growth" in domestic policies [1][2] Group 2 - The 中证500质量成长指数 is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.87, which is lower than 90.5% of the time over the past three years, indicating strong valuation appeal [2] - The index comprises 100 high-profitability, sustainable, and cash-rich companies selected from the 中证500 index, providing diverse investment options for investors [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the 中证500质量成长指数 account for 20.42% of the index, with companies like 东吴证券 and 恺英网络 being the most significant contributors [2]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, government bond yields experienced a rise and subsequent decline, influenced by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions [1] Market Performance - In Q1, the bond market faced a correction due to three main factors: market adjustments to the "moderately loose" monetary policy expectations, tight funding conditions due to restrained monetary operations, and better-than-expected fundamental data from January to February [1] - By the end of June, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, showing changes of 22.35 basis points, 9.13 basis points, -2.90 basis points, and -6.25 basis points compared to December 31 [1] Policy Dynamics - The first half of the year saw the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. On May 8, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, leading to a corresponding 10 basis point drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - On May 15, the reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [1] Bond Supply and Demand - As of June 27, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a total of 20,973 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, achieving 47% of the issuance target [1] - The refinancing of special replacement bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 18,031 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 90% [1] - The net issuance of government bonds was 33,802 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 50.7%, including the early issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds compared to the previous year [1] Strategy Outlook - The current funding conditions are loose, with the overnight DR dropping below the policy rate to 1.4%, but the bond market lacks strong upward momentum [1] - In the absence of further interest rate cuts, the bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with an optimistic forecast for the 10-year government bond yield's low point at 1.50% [1] - If interest rates are cut by 10-20 basis points, the low point could potentially drop to 1.3% - 1.4% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the overall economic data in May was slightly below expectations. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price may have fully reflected the negative factors. The futures price of steel products maintains a narrow - range shock, and there may be a second bottom - probing in the short term [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, putting pressure on the futures price. The long - term trend of the futures price is downward, and it is weak in the short - term shock [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Environment**: The central bank's suggestion to strengthen monetary policy regulation has strengthened the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but it has little impact on the market. The real - estate market is still bottom - building, with the total sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline has widened compared with last month. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory rebounded, the social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will weaken further, and inventory will rise slightly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a shock mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the callback stabilizes, and do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 2997 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week. Other data such as basis, spread, and various prices are also provided in detail [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week exceeded 2.423 million tons, but it is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate is slowing down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is high, putting pressure on the futures price [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - term long positions can be taken after the callback, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 716.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.92% from last week. Data on overseas shipments, sea freight, inventory, and various prices are also provided [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In June, the PMI of the steel industry was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, and it is expected that in July, the demand will be under pressure and the steel price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [7]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel exports are still at a high level, and the future trend is uncertain. The steel billet exports have increased too fast year - on - year, and the annualized calculation may exceed 10 million tons [7]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.491 million tons month - on - month [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi will be shut down for maintenance from June 28 to July 12, with an estimated impact on the total raw coal output of 375,000 tons [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the changes and consistencies in the monetary policy framework as discussed in the second quarter monetary policy committee meeting of 2025, highlighting a shift towards strengthening domestic circulation and a flexible approach to policy implementation [2][3][5]. Group 1: Changes Worth Noting - In terms of policy tone, the meeting removed the phrase "combining the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms" and added "placing greater emphasis on strengthening domestic circulation while coordinating the relationship between total supply and total demand" [3][7]. - The monetary policy approach has shifted from "timely reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates" to "flexibly grasping the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [4][8]. - The statement regarding exchange rates has been altered, removing "strengthening market management and resolutely correcting market pro-cyclical behaviors" [4][9]. Group 2: Consistencies Worth Noting - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing the need to "smooth the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, improve the efficiency of fund utilization, and prevent fund idling" [5][10]. - The balance between moderately loose monetary policy and preventing fund idling is significantly influenced by the scale of residents' deposits moving to non-bank institutions [10][17]. Group 3: Understanding the Central Bank's Liquidity Injection - Over the past two decades, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved, transitioning from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now incorporating more comprehensive methods such as open market operations and securities swaps [11][19]. - This change in liquidity injection strategy indicates that the central bank's current approach aims not only to support the credit expansion capacity of commercial banks but also to stabilize liquidity in the stock and bond markets [11][19].

Policy Changes - The meeting removed the phrase "combine the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform" and added "place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic circulation" [2] - The monetary policy approach changed from "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasp the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [2] - The statement regarding exchange rates was modified, removing "strengthen market management and resolutely correct market pro-cyclical behavior" [2] Consistent Policy Stance - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing "smooth monetary policy transmission mechanisms and improve fund utilization efficiency" [5] - The focus on the scale of household deposits moving to non-bank institutions is critical for understanding the balance between monetary policy and preventing fund idling [6] Liquidity Injection Methods - Over the past 20 years, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now includes more comprehensive methods like buying government bonds and facilitating stock repurchases [7] - The current liquidity injection aims not only to support commercial banks' credit expansion but also to stabilize the liquidity in stock and bond markets [7]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) signaled important adjustments in monetary policy and exchange rate management for the second half of the year, reflecting a more flexible approach in response to complex economic conditions [1][4] - The second quarter meeting emphasized maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy while enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual function of monetary policy tools [5][6] Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for the second quarter, with a target of around 4.7% for the second half to meet the annual growth goal, indicating manageable pressure under current policy measures [5] - Market analysts expect further policy adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, to support liquidity and economic stability [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting highlighted the need to implement existing financial policies effectively to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing housing stock and land [9][10] - Data from January to May showed a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area and sales revenue by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, although some first- and second-tier cities experienced growth [9] Domestic Circulation Strategy - The PBOC emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic focus, coordinating supply and demand, and enhancing macro policy coordination to stimulate economic recovery [11] - Recent policies included lowering interest rates on housing provident fund loans and optimizing capital market support tools, with a total of 800 billion yuan allocated for securities and stock repurchase financing [11] Exchange Rate Management - The second quarter meeting shifted its focus from strict measures to enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [12] - Historical data suggests the yuan may be entering a new appreciation cycle, which could help stabilize the global monetary system and support economic growth [12]

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益半年报 大浪难寻，细浪掘金 ――利率债 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 27 日 2025 年上半年市场回顾 资金价格：2025 年上半年，资金面先紧后松。一季度资金面偏紧且波幅较 大，与央行稳汇率防空转、银行负债压力加剧及政府债供给规模较高有关。 二季度资金价格趋降趋稳，主要源于，在关税冲击下，央行积极维稳资金 面，叠加 5 月降准降息直接带动资金价格下移。 一级市场：2025 年上半年，利率债供给加量，发行规模和净融资规模均远高 于 2024 年同期，其中，国债净融资规模接近 3.4 万亿元，约为 2024 年同期 的 2 倍。节奏上，国债发行主要在二季度提速；地方债则在一季度发行放 量，与国债发行节奏形成错位；政金债发行节奏较为平滑。 二级市场：2025 年上半年，利率先上后下，曲线走平。一季度利率出现较为 明显的上行调整，主要源于"宽货币"向"稳货币"甚至"紧货币"转变， 资金利空逐渐由短端向长端传导，带动曲线呈现熊平特征。二季度"关税交 易"是主线，4 月利率受关税避险和宽松预期升温 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2023, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and support economic recovery [1][2][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has employed multiple monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratios, open market operations, Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and re-lending to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1][2]. - In the first half of the year, the PBOC conducted 7-day reverse repos and, when necessary, 14-day reverse repos to meet the needs of primary dealers, injecting a total of 2.6 trillion yuan across the Spring Festival period [2]. - The MLF operations totaled 23.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding system introduced in March [2][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC has introduced a buyout-style reverse repo operation to fill the gap between 7-day reverse repos and 1-year MLF, enhancing liquidity management precision [3]. - As of now, the PBOC has conducted 47 trillion yuan in 3-month buyout reverse repos and 25 trillion yuan in 6-month buyout reverse repos this year [3]. - The PBOC has also utilized the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) to provide short-term liquidity support to local financial institutions, with a total of 240.82 billion yuan in SLF operations in the first five months [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Experts predict that the PBOC will continue to adopt a loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5][6]. - The anticipated interest rate cut could range from 10 to 30 basis points, while reserve requirement ratio cuts may be between 25 to 50 basis points [5]. - There is a possibility of resuming government bond trading operations in the second half of the year, depending on market conditions [6][7].