1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fourth - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee basically follows the tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference for subsequent work. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The domestic economy has prominent contradictions of strong supply and weak demand [2]. - In an economic environment with revised expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift [6]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalog World Economic Situation and Domestic Economic Operation - The world economic growth momentum is insufficient, and trade barriers and the lack of new economic growth drivers have increased the uncertainty of the external environment. The domestic economic operation is generally stable, with prominent contradictions of strong supply and weak demand. Expanding domestic demand remains one of the main tasks for the next stage [2]. Attitude towards Policy Tools - The central bank does not show a strong willingness to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks was 1.42%, at a historical low. Implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may further increase the bank interest margin pressure [2]. Price Outlook - Price recovery should be one of the main themes in 2026. The fourth - quarter regular meeting's statement on prices has changed from "promoting stable economic growth and keeping prices at a reasonable level" in the third quarter to "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery" [3]. Credit Delivery - The central bank's attitude towards credit delivery may have changed. The content of "guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of monetary and credit delivery" was removed from the fourth - quarter regular meeting, indicating a shift from increasing the intensity of loan delivery to high - quality delivery [3]. Real Estate Support - The fourth - quarter regular meeting did not mention financial support measures for the real estate industry. On the one hand, the task of ensuring the completion of housing projects has been fully completed, and the financial policy measures to support the real estate industry have taken effect. On the other hand, with the continuous transformation of new and old growth drivers, the support for the old growth driver represented by real estate in financial policies will weaken [4].

本刊记者 王红茹｜北京报道 最新消息显示，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）依然"按兵不动"，至此已连续7个月保持稳定。很多网友都关心，后续LPR还会下调吗？为此，记者专访了中 国人民大学金融信息中心主任杨健。 《中国经济周刊》：LPR连续7个月不变，是出于何种政策考量？ 杨健：LPR不变，究其核心，在于当前宏观经济环境持续向好，市场对短期强刺激政策的依赖度明显下降。从基本面看，我国经济展现出较强的增长韧 性：一方面，2025年出口表现超乎预期；另一方面，新质生产力相关领域发展势头加快，全年经济增长目标的实现应该没有悬念。在此情况下，进一步加 大逆周期调节力度的必要性已明显减弱。 《中国经济周刊》：后续LPR还存在下调空间吗？ 杨健：今年以来，LPR仅于5月开展过一轮调整。虽然连续多月保持平稳，且整体贷款利率处于历史较低水平，但从政策导向来看，未来依然具备调整空 间。 中央经济工作会议明确提出要"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，这意味着货币政策将更加主动服务于稳增长目标。为支持2026年一季度经济平稳 开局，货币政策预计将逐步从观察期转向发力期，央行有可能适时推出新一轮降准或降息操作。 1 2 届时，LPR也很 ...

Sugar Industry - As of December 24, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 11.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons or 14.54% compared to the same period last year [3] - The sugar content of the sugarcane was 11.40%, down 0.08% from 11.48% last year, while the sugar production rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676% [3] - Sugar production amounted to 1.00 million tons, a decline of 0.17 million tons or 14.28% year-on-year [3] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,410 CNY per ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,140 and 5,260 CNY per ton, remaining stable [3] - The raw sugar market is closed due to the Christmas holiday, and the domestic spot market has stabilized after a decline, with expectations of future fluctuations [3] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton futures were closed for the Christmas holiday, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.74% to 14,255 CNY per ton, with open interest increasing by 20,504 contracts to 835,100 contracts [4] - The cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,000 CNY per ton, up 90 CNY from the previous day [4] - The recent upward trend in Zheng cotton prices is driven by strong expectations, particularly regarding potential reductions in cotton planting areas in Xinjiang [4] - The highest price for Zheng cotton futures reached 14,265 CNY per ton, influenced by market sentiment [4] - Key future considerations include the sustainability of consumer demand and potential new inventory replenishment by textile companies before the Spring Festival, as well as macroeconomic factors such as possible interest rate cuts and upcoming cotton subsidy policy details [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rise in the past two weeks, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand is showing off - season characteristics with a decline. It is necessary to observe whether the winter storage market can be launched in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has been volatile after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 15,590 lots. The trading volume continued to decline compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The trading volume was 502,388 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream region was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the spot price, which continued to support the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. It was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, and the production was still at a near - 4 - year low. As of December 18, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% lower than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 22.655 million tons, 28,600 tons lower than last year. This week's production continued to rise slightly, which would weaken price support to some extent [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak. The average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide remained at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - five - year low for the same period. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, at a near - 4 - year low. Demand showed regional differences. Construction in the north stopped due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects were rushing to complete, with good demand resilience. The apparent demand declined due to the off - season, and it was necessary to pay attention to whether winter storage could boost demand in January [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline. As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks, but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. Among them, the social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons week - on - week with a slowdown in destocking, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, slightly increasing by 5,200 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed current demand resilience. Although the inventory destocking rate slowed down this week, the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, adjusting policies according to cities to control new supply, destock, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macro - economically, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, expectations of policy easing, a large futures discount providing bottom - support, strong iron ore in the furnace charge, and stable coking coal enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter - storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5]. Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a volatile situation. Supply is at a relatively low level but has increased recently, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand shows off - season characteristics. The inventory destocking rate has slowed down, and the overall inventory level is okay. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The market has been volatile recently, indicating a non - prominent supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6].

固收｜降准降息，何谓"灵活高效"？20251224 摘要 中国货币政策强调适时、适度和有效性，央行操作灵活，可根据经济环 境调整利率，理论上操作机会远超美联储，需关注宏观环境和政策时机 以确保操作效果。 中国主要有政策利率（7 天逆回购利率，目前 1.4%）、基准利率、存款 利率和贷款利率四种类型，分别在调控市场流动性、金融产品定价、影 响居民储蓄和企业融资等方面发挥作用。 评估降息效果可观察股指表现，其被视为宏观经济晴雨表。过去央行在 关键节点调控，如美联储降息和中美贸易谈判前夕，股市均出现明显反 弹，表明股指是直观评估指标。 2026 年 3 月中国两会将提出"十五五"规划纲要，政策落地有望通过 降息提振股市。春节后资金流向影响市场，提振风险偏好有助于资金从 虚拟经济转向实体经济。 2025-2026 年不应过度期待多次大幅度降息，重点是改变债务结构而 非单纯降低融资成本，通过政府加杠杆来优化融资结构，多次大幅度降 息并非必要。 Q&A 2025 年的中央经济工作会议提到灵活高效应用降准降息等多种政策工具，如 何理解这一点？展望 2026 年，宽货币节奏应如何看待？ 2025 年的中央经济工作会议强调了灵 ...

人民财讯12月25日电，华泰证券研报表示，12月22—23日，住建部召开工作会议总结2025年房地产工 作，并部署2026年重点任务和展望"十五五"政策方向。华泰证券认为2026年控增量、去库存、优供给等 政策将进一步落实，叠加潜在的降准降息，助力市场走向企稳，供给侧仍将不断优化，产品力或将成为 房企穿越周期的核心竞争力之一，有望重塑企业市场地位和竞争格局。本次住建部会议遵循中央稳行业 的坚定态度，并给出一系列方向。"优供给"导向有望推动企业竞争格局重塑，并有望带来物管企业发展 机遇。重点推荐：1、兼具"好信用、好城市、好产品"的"三好"地产股；2、依靠运营能力在市场调整中 掌握现金流生命线的房企；3、受益于香港市场复苏的香港本地房企；4、受益于稳健现金流、具备分红 优势的物管企业。 ...

文/刘佳 12月24日央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 因本月有3000亿元MLF到期，12月央行MLF净投放为1000亿元，为连续第十个月加量续作，符合市场 预期。 考虑到本月央行还净投放2000亿元买断式逆回购，这意味着12月中期流动性净投放总额达到3000亿元， 较上月减少3000亿元。 谈及12月MLF与买断式逆回购合计净投放中期流动性规模较上月减少3000亿元，在业内人士看来，这 一方面源于当月政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下降，另一方面也不排除2026年一季度央行实施降准、 向市场注入较大规模长期流动性的可能。 展望2026年，中央经济工作会议要求，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价 合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 东方金诚研究部判断，2026央行还会通过各类流动性工具搭配组合，适时向市场注入短中长期流动性， 引导资金面处于稳定的充裕状态。这不仅会继续助力政府债券顺利发行，引导金融机构加大信贷投放， 也将释放数量型政策 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 17388 手，成交量相比上 一交易日略微缩量，日内震荡运行，最低 3111，最高 3144，收于 3136 元/吨， 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅 0.06%。成交量 837866 手。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3320 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 184 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 ■宏观面：中央经济会议灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动 性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。美联储 12 月降息 25 基点符合预期。宏观预期稳中偏好。十五五规划建议为钢铁行业指明了"减量不 是衰退，而是高质量发展"的转型路径，核心围绕"控产能、优结构、促转型、提 质量"展开。 ■成本端：铁矿石强势，双焦期货企稳上涨，继续提升成本支撑。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 12 月 ...

【 导读 】 央行将开展4000亿元MLF操作 中国基金报记者 张玲 12月24日，央行发布消息称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日，中国人民银行将以固 定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1 年期。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，12月有3000亿元MLF到期，央 行在25日开展4000亿元MLF操作，加量续作1000亿元，继续向市场投放中期流动性，将进 一步优化市场流动性结构。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，在5月降准之后，央行连续第七个月开展中期流动性净投 放，主要有三方面原因：一是前期安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务 及扩大有效投资，这意味着12月还会有一定规模的政府债券发行；二是10月5000亿元新型政 策性金融工具投放完毕，12月会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放；三是12月银行同业存单到期 量明显增加。以上都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 12月MLF与买断式逆回购合计净投放中期流动性规模较上月减少3000亿元。王青认为，一方 面，因为当月政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下降； ...

午后，A股大金融板块异动，瑞达期货一度直线涨停，翠微股份、南华期货、永安期货、爱建集团等跟涨。券 商股全线飘红。受此带动，A50跌幅也显著收窄。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，2025年年报预期可能已经开始发酵，而非银板块的业绩无疑 有较高的确定性。另一方面，虽然12月并没有调降LPR，但降准预期依然存在，市场可能开始预期1月份资金 面宽松的情形。 大金融爆发 平安夜，大金融不平静。今日午后，大金融板块突然异动，瑞达期货一度直线涨停，翠微股份、南华期货、永 安期货、爱建集团等跟涨。随后，券商板块集体拉升。中银证券、东吴证券、国盛证券、华泰证券等涨幅居 前。 那么，究竟发生了什么？此前，券商中国记者曾在此前报道中提及，市场可能已经进入年报预热阶段，而2025 年年报确定性较高的板块主要来自两个方向：一是创业板50成份股中的权重股（算力、新能源），二是券商板 块。2025年前三季度，A股43家上市券商合计实现营业收入4216.23亿元，归母净利润1692.54亿元，分别同比 增长16.88%、62.41%，整体业绩迎来大幅增长。 另一方面，虽然12月份LPR未能调降，但市场对于降准等货币宽松政策仍有 ...