十五五规划
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坚持“环保为民”,“十五五”还要加把劲!
Zhong Guo Huan Jing Bao· 2025-11-13 23:21
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "environmental protection for the people" as a guiding principle for ecological conservation efforts in China, highlighting the need for tangible improvements in environmental quality that directly benefit citizens [1][5]. Group 1: Achievements in Environmental Protection - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to significant improvements in ecological quality, with various regions implementing targeted pollution control measures [2]. - Cities like Shenyang have achieved historical lows in pollution levels during heating seasons, while Hebei has developed specific recovery plans for its rivers [2]. - Public satisfaction with ecological conditions has remained above 90% for four consecutive years, indicating a strong positive response to environmental initiatives [3]. Group 2: Future Directions for Environmental Policy - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to deepen the implementation of "environmental protection for the people," ensuring that ecological improvements are systematic and comprehensive [3][4]. - There is a focus on utilizing advanced technologies such as big data and IoT for precise pollution management, targeting specific areas of concern [3]. - The plan includes exploring economic benefits for communities involved in environmental protection, such as through ecological compensation and carbon trading [4]. Group 3: Community Involvement and Public Participation - The article stresses the need for broader public participation in ecological initiatives, encouraging community involvement in planning, implementation, and evaluation processes [4]. - Establishing effective channels for public feedback and participation is crucial for fostering a collective effort in building a sustainable environment [4]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - As expectations for environmental quality rise, the article notes that the tolerance for ecological issues is decreasing, indicating ongoing challenges in meeting public demands [5]. - The commitment to a people-centered approach in environmental policy is essential for addressing pressing ecological problems and enhancing the quality of life for citizens [5].
从“十五五”规划看中国式现代化的学理性跃升
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-11-13 22:28
推进中国式现代化是一个事关长远的系统工程。"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全 面发力的关键时期,在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位。在《关于〈中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的说明》中,习近平总书记从"实现社会主义 现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程,需要不懈努力、接续奋斗"的大历史观高度,对 这一"关键时期"的根本性规定和学理性特质作出新的阐释。同时,紧紧围绕推进中国式现代化,从基本 定位、阶段性要求、战略部署和发展目标上对"十五五"时期的各项任务作出擘画,凸显了"十五五"规划 建议的理论指导和实践指南意义。 从发展目标看,"十五五"规划既要同"十四五"规划提出的理念和思路保持连续性,又要准确把握未来5 年我国经济社会发展大势,确定符合实际、具有前瞻性的总体思路、重大原则、主要目标、战略任务。 习近平总书记提出,科学设定发展目标,对制定和实施好五年规划至关重要。要到2035年基本实现社会 主义现代化,就要锚定人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平这一重要标志性指标,确保"十五五"时 期经济社会发展保持适当速度。要在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略 ...
交银国际每日晨报-20251113
BOCOM International· 2025-11-13 10:35
Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on high-quality development in the real estate sector as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - Preliminary data from CRIC indicates that the total sales of the top 100 developers increased by 4.0% month-on-month in October 2025, reaching 276.9 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 16.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential pricing pressure in the market [1] Real Estate Industry Summary - The sales volume of 21 major listed developers rose by 6.3% month-on-month in October, with sales area increasing by 10.2% [1] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property and Vanke, both of which saw sales growth exceeding 50% month-on-month [1] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities fell by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the second-hand residential price index dropped by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that leading private enterprises may accelerate their debt restructuring processes as market sentiment improves [2] - Long-term investment outlook remains positive for China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, both of which have demonstrated strong sales performance and execution capabilities in recent years [2]
野村在深圳举办第十七届中国投资年会
野村东方国际证券· 2025-11-13 09:09
Core Viewpoint - Nomura Group emphasizes its commitment to supporting the development of China's financial market and highlights the achievements of China in its recent "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][9]. Group 1: Event Overview - Nomura announced the opening of the "2025 Nomura China Investment Conference" in Shenzhen, marking the 17th such event in China [4]. - The conference attracted over 40 companies and more than 400 investors, showcasing a strong interest in China's market [7]. Group 2: Key Messages from Leadership - Shunpei Kawafune, President of Nomura International (Hong Kong), expressed optimism about China's ongoing reforms and its economic resilience, particularly in the context of the global economy [9]. - The company has been operating in China for over 40 years and has established a joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, which has been operational for nearly six years [9]. Group 3: Focus Areas of the Conference - The conference will feature discussions on global economic outlook, advancements in humanoid robots, and large language models, as well as the development of key industries in China, including consumer trends and technological progress in AI and semiconductors [10].
“十五五”规划建议学习系列(一):跨越关口的五年,“十五五”发展动能与政策路径推演
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-13 09:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period is a crucial five - year period that connects the past and the future, with special significance for high - quality development and achieving the 2035 visionary goals [10][11]. - China's economic development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period faces a complex and uncertain internal and external environment. Externally, there are challenges such as global economic slowdown, intensified great - power competition, and supply - chain reconstruction; internally, there are issues like economic growth slowdown, effective demand shortage, and population aging [13]. - To promote high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, five major policy levers should be grasped, including developing new quality productive forces, expanding domestic demand, deepening income distribution reform, building a unified national market, and reshaping the incentive - restraint mechanism [67][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Historical Position - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is at the historical intersection of the "Two Centenary Goals" and is a foundational stage for the new journey of building a modern socialist country. It has a "connecting - the - past - and - future" role, with tasks of "attacking and implementing" and coincides with many major historical nodes [10][11]. 3.2 Ten Judgments on the Internal and External Environment of China's Economic Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period 3.2.1 External Environment - Global economic uncertainty increases, and the global economy may enter a deep adjustment period of slow growth and declining potential output. The "15th Five - Year Plan" may face a "high - risk, high - volatility" global economic environment with weak growth momentum [14][16]. - A multi - polar trade system is taking shape. China's voice in global economic and trade is expected to further increase, but trade frictions with non - US countries may intensify [20][21]. - Sino - US competition remains the core variable affecting the global political and economic landscape, evolving towards "normalization" and "complexity." The competition for scientific and technological and industrial discourse power is crucial [31][32]. - Supply - chain reconstruction has entered the second half, with geopolitics and strategic security becoming the main lines of global supply - chain layout [35]. - China has many favorable factors to actively shape the external environment and is not completely passive in the face of external pressure [39][40]. 3.2.2 Internal Environment - The official "4.17%" may be the minimum growth target for the "15th Five - Year Plan," and the expected economic growth range is around 4.5% - 5% [41]. - The transformation of old and new driving forces will accelerate the adjustment of China's industrial structure. The real estate industry may be in the transition from the bottom to a new cycle, and the urgency of new quality productive forces playing a leading role has increased significantly [45][47]. - The population structure may gradually transition to deep aging, and the pressure of "getting old before getting rich" poses more severe challenges to the pension system, medical resources, and elderly care services [53]. - Reform has entered the "deep - water zone," and the implementation of some reform tasks faces significant resistance [57]. - "Debt reduction in development" should be implemented, focusing on structural optimization and efficiency improvement to enhance the sustainability of fiscal debt [61][63]. 3.3 Five Levers to Promote China's High - Quality Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period - **Lever 1: Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading** "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions prioritize building a modern industrial system. China's industrial structure has problems such as traditional industries in urgent need of transformation and modern manufacturing being "large but not strong." R & D investment is still relatively low, and there are "bottleneck" issues in key areas. "Full - chain" key core technology research in key areas is necessary, and industry "involution" should be avoided [69][70][71]. - **Lever 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption** The importance of "expanding domestic demand" has increased. Insufficient effective demand is the core obstacle to the domestic cycle. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, direct subsidies to residents may be increased, and investment growth is expected to be stable, especially ensuring that the proportion of private investment does not continue to decline [5][8]. - **Lever 3: Deepening Income Distribution Reform and Improving the Social Security System** "People's livelihood" is a key word in the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions. Income distribution reform, household registration system reform, and improvement of the social security system are expected to be key tasks [6]. - **Lever 4: Continuously Promoting Anti - involution and Building a Unified National Market** Building a unified national market is a systematic project. The implementation of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's reform tasks is crucial, especially optimizing the local government assessment and incentive mechanism and solving the problem of China's economic growth path dependence [8]. - **Lever 5: Remodeling the Incentive - Restraint Mechanism and Releasing the Vitality of Micro - entities** The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions emphasize "combining strict management with kindness and balancing incentives and restraints." It is expected to optimize the local assessment and statistical system, promote fiscal and tax system reform, and improve the business environment for enterprises [8].
“十五五”深度研究系列报告(一):如何实现中等发达国家的增长目标?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-11-13 08:13
Group 1: Growth Targets - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-developed countries by 2035, with a target of exceeding $20,000[1] - To achieve this, an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% is required during the "14th" and "15th Five-Year" periods[2] - The per capita GDP in 2035 is projected to be over $20,000, which is below the developed country threshold of approximately $29,000[8] Group 2: Measurement Standards - Two parallel standards for measuring the growth target are established: exceeding $20,000 in nominal terms and doubling the per capita GDP from 2020 levels in real terms by 2035[6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes 41 developed economies with a per capita GDP threshold of about $23,400, while China’s current per capita GDP is approximately $13,300[3] - The World Bank classifies 87 high-income economies, with a high-income threshold of $13,935, placing China in the upper-middle-income category[3] Group 3: Economic Context - The population is expected to decrease by about 0.20% annually by 2035, impacting GDP growth calculations[2] - The actual GDP growth rate needed to meet the target is estimated at 4.1%, which aligns closely with the stated 4.17%[7] - The classification of "middle-developed countries" is contextualized as a transitional goal rather than a benchmark within developed countries[8]
市委召开专题会议研究“十五五”规划建议起草工作
Chang Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-11-13 07:33
市委召开专题会议 研究"十五五"规划建议起草工作 深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神 高质量编制好我市"十五五"规划建议 11月12日,市委召开专题会议研究我市"十五五"规划建议起草工作。省委常委、市委书记、市长、 市"十五五"规划起草组组长盛阅春主持会议并强调,要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神和习近平 总书记考察湖北重要讲话精神,认真落实省委部署要求,紧密结合武汉实际,广泛听取意见建议,高质 量编制好我市"十五五"规划建议,为未来五年经济社会发展提供科学指引。 会议听取了我市"十五五"规划建议起草工作情况汇报,相关部门作交流发言。 要坚持开门编规划,以多种方式听取人民群众和社会各界的意见建议,广泛汇集智慧、凝聚共识, 共同为武汉发展献计出力。 要抓紧开展我市"十五五"规划纲要编制工作,推动规划建议与规划纲要、专项规划紧密对接,将建 议提出的方向性要求转化为推动经济社会发展的务实举措。 要深入分析"十五五"我市面临的发展形势和机遇挑战,科学研判宏观环境、人口结构、新一轮科技 革命与产业变革、城市发展历史方位等深刻变化,充分认识武汉正迎来地位上升、定位提高、机遇叠加 的发展黄金期,把握自身优势,找准短板弱项 ...
2026年中药行业年度投资策略:“十五五”蓄势,基药目录待发
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-11-13 07:26
Core Insights - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to see revenue growth accelerate as companies clear channel inventory and benefit from lower raw material prices, leading to margin recovery [3][8] - As of Q3 2025, institutional holdings in the Chinese medicine sector have dropped to 0.20%, the lowest since 2021, indicating potential for increased capital inflow [3][16] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is at a low of 23.05, suggesting attractive valuation levels for investors [19] 2025 Review - Revenue growth for the Chinese medicine industry improved sequentially in Q1-Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.1%, -2.3%, and -1.5% respectively [12] - The gross margin showed signs of recovery, with Q1-Q3 margins at 42.4%, 41.4%, and 40.4%, indicating a potential turning point due to falling raw material prices [12][28] - Over half of the companies in the sector managed to achieve positive net profit growth despite overall negative trends, highlighting effective cost management strategies [12][15] Key Indicators Tracking - The flu incidence rate has returned to normal levels, which may lead to revenue elasticity for companies with low channel inventory [25] - The price index for traditional Chinese medicine materials has declined, alleviating margin pressures for companies in the sector [28] - The institutional holding ratio in the Chinese medicine sector has decreased significantly, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [16] Policy Trends - The upcoming release of the revised National Essential Medicines List is expected to benefit companies with strong product and commercialization capabilities [34] - Companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical and Lingrui Pharmaceutical are anticipated to gain from their established sales channels and product offerings once included in the essential medicines list [34] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Dong'e Ejiao, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, and Yunnan Baiyao, which are seen as stable growth candidates with strong dividend yields [38] - Companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical and Huaren Sanjiu are identified as turnaround opportunities, with potential for performance recovery [38]
中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛:预计2026年出口增速有望继续超预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 05:42
Core Viewpoint - The 2026 GDP growth target for China is set at around 5%, which is deemed necessary and feasible to stabilize investor confidence in Chinese assets and capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, indicated that China's GDP growth is expected to reach around 5% next year due to policy support [1]. - The average GDP growth rate required from 2020 to 2035 to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 is approximately 4.73% [1]. - The average GDP growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is above 5%, meeting the stage requirements [1]. Group 2: Export and External Demand - Huang noted that external demand remains resilient, with China's export performance in 2025 exceeding expectations, contributing over 30% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [2]. - If the trade agreements are effectively executed and non-U.S. economies continue to expand, the export growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed expectations [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to diminish, with a projected slight narrowing of the decline in real estate development investment and new housing sales in 2026 [3]. - The decline in new housing sales is anticipated to be within 5%, reducing the negative drag on the economy [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Consumer Recovery - There is ample room for policy support, with fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies expected to work in tandem in 2026 [3]. - The implementation of "two重" and "two新" policies is expected to continue, with an increase in support for service consumption and the expansion of trade-in policies for consumer goods [3]. - If fiscal policies align with consumer recovery efforts, consumption is projected to improve from its current low state [3].
中国如何扩内需?外资怎样共享机遇?外国使节追问“十五五”
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-11-13 04:16
Group 1 - The core focus of the meeting was on China's economic transformation, particularly in expanding domestic demand and promoting green low-carbon transition, which are crucial for both China's high-quality development and international economic cooperation [1][7][15] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" was highlighted as a significant strategic framework for China's development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of modernization and international collaboration [4][11] - Specific measures to increase domestic consumption were discussed, including raising residents' income, improving the efficiency of wealth distribution, and removing consumption restrictions [7][8] Group 2 - The meeting addressed the concerns of many developing countries regarding the evolution of cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in manufacturing and digital sectors [11][12] - The discussion included China's resilience in the face of trade wars, with data indicating that approximately 80% of Chinese exports remain competitive even with a 30% price increase [15][16] - The dialogue also covered the challenges of market segmentation and local protectionism, with commitments to address these issues through systematic reforms [15][16]