Market Overview - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.69%, surpassing 26,000 points at one point, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.87% and 1.2%, respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks continued to rise, with significant gains in major companies such as Baidu, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and JD.com [4] - Financial stocks, including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, generally saw increases [2] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metal stocks performed well, driven by the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2][12] Notable Stocks - Baidu's stock price increased by 4.56% after Morgan Stanley raised its target price to $188, citing Baidu's transformation into an AI infrastructure provider [4][5] - Xiaomi's stock rose by 4.35% as its founder invested over HKD 100 million to increase his stake [4][5] - Other notable performers included Bilibili, which rose by 5.22%, and NIO, which increased by 3.04% [5][6] Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 11.166 billion, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [9] - The market is expected to recover from recent declines, as the current downturn reflects irrational panic rather than fundamental issues [11] Industry Insights - The battery and lithium battery sectors saw gains, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 4% and 3%, respectively [6] - The aviation sector faced pressure, with China Eastern Airlines and Air China experiencing declines due to a significant increase in flight cancellations to Japan [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices continued their rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.69%, briefly surpassing 26,000 points [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.87% and 1.2%, respectively, with the tech index peaking at a 2.2% gain during the session [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large technology stocks contributed to the market's strength, with Baidu and Xiaomi both rising over 4.3%, while Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan also saw gains [1] - Major financial stocks, including China Life, China Pacific Insurance, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and CITIC Securities, experienced widespread increases [1] - The rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts led to active trading in gold stocks and non-ferrous metal stocks such as copper and aluminum [1] - Other sectors showing collective activity included Apple-related stocks, entertainment, steel, building materials, and automotive industries [1] Group 3: Underperforming Sectors - The airline sector faced pressure, with a 56% increase in flight cancellations between China and Japan compared to the same month last year, leading to a nearly 6% drop in China Eastern Airlines, which fell below HKD 100 billion in market capitalization [1] - Defense stocks, which had surged the previous day, cooled off, while dairy, telecommunications, and home appliance stocks mostly remained sluggish [1]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the labor market remains structurally unbalanced, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [1] - The release of November non-farm payroll data has been postponed from December 5 to December 16, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a current probability of approximately 69% for a cut in December [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, the growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in China fell to -19.1% from 2.3% in September, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year [1] - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure decreased to -9.3% from 3.1% in September, while government fund expenditure dropped to -32.8% from 0.4% in September [1] - Tax revenue showed slight recovery, but non-tax revenue continued to weaken [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remains tight due to tax period disturbances, with the stock market adjusting but limited reaction in the bond market, which continues to experience narrow fluctuations [1] - The central bank governor indicated that the yield on 10-year government bonds remains around 1.75%-1.85%, with cautious sentiment in the bond market near key levels [1] - The expectation of a U.S. rate cut and skepticism regarding AI narratives have not triggered a significant decline in the bond market, indicating that a trend in interest rates may require substantial central bank bond purchases or a slowdown in the economy to prompt monetary policy easing [1] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - Following a significant adjustment in the A-share market, current indicators suggest that market sentiment is at a low level, indicating limited downward space [2] - Uncertainties regarding overseas liquidity, rate cut expectations, and important internal meetings in December may prevent an immediate recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Structural pressures between market styles have eased, suggesting a gradual entry into a mid-term layout phase [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by U.S. rate cut expectations, with a mid-term perspective indicating potential benefits from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] Group 6: Commodity Outlook - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts may not significantly boost oil demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized recently amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive outlook for the medium to long term [2]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have surged, with overall prices surpassing 1300 yuan per gram, marking a significant increase in the market [1] - The highest price among major brands is from Zhou Sheng Sheng, which increased by 22 yuan per gram to 1315 yuan per gram, tied with Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has widened to 93 yuan per gram, indicating a growing disparity in pricing among brands [1] Group 2: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price has increased by 16.8 yuan per gram, reflecting a rising trend in the market [2] - Different brands show significant variation in recovery prices, with the highest recovery price at 933 yuan per gram [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - International spot gold prices have seen a substantial rise, reaching a peak of 4139.75 USD per ounce, with a closing price of 4134.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.72% increase [4] - The current spot gold price is reported at 4145.45 USD per ounce, with a further increase of 0.29% [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, which have heightened market expectations for a rate cut in December, now at 80.9% [4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, continue to support gold prices, as recent airstrikes have escalated concerns [4]

高晓峰：11.25黄金最新分析：上涨动力与潜在风险全解析 当前黄金市场的核心驱动力在于美联储的降息预期。多位官员，特别是旧金山联储主席戴利的鸽派表 态，强化了市场对12月降息的押注，概率已升至80%以上。这一预期是支撑金价上涨的最强动力。然 而，风险因素并存，俄乌冲突出现新的和平方案可能削弱避险需求，同时美元企稳与美股强势也分流了 部分资金，对金价构成一定压力。 从技术分析角度看，黄金短线多头占据明显优势。日线级别上，金价稳居布林带中轨上方，MACD指标 显现金叉迹象，为上涨提供动能。更关键的4小时图显示，均线系统已形成金叉，布林带开口向上，且 价格正依托上轨运行，配合MACD金叉持续放量，表明短期趋势偏强。综合基本面与技术面，尽管存在 避险情绪降温等不利因素，但主导市场的降息预期与技术上的多头信号共同指向看涨方向。因此，日内 操作策略建议以回踩低位做多为主，密切关注美联储官员的后续言论对市场预期的引导。 黄金建议：回调4128-25继续做多 止损4118 目标4160-4170 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent heavy selling pressure on Bitcoin appears to be easing, raising hopes that the current downturn may be nearing its end, with Bitcoin hovering around $88,000 after previously hitting a seven-month low [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Bitcoin's recent decline has led to significant position liquidations, causing the overall digital asset market to lose over $1 trillion in value [1] - Despite a slight rebound, Bitcoin is on track to record its worst monthly performance since 2022, with Bitcoin ETFs facing severe monthly outflows [1] - The cost of purchasing downside protection in the Bitcoin options market has significantly decreased, indicating reduced market tension and investor expectations of a bottom [1][4] Group 2: Indicators and Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is currently at 32, suggesting that the asset is oversold, as levels below 30 typically indicate such conditions [1] - The implied volatility of Bitcoin options has returned to levels seen in April, coinciding with a previous sell-off triggered by tariff news [1] - Data shows that over $6 billion has flowed out of global cryptocurrency exchange-traded products since November, marking the largest monthly outflow on record since 2018 [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - Renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are driving up risk assets, including Bitcoin, with an 80.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [7][8] - Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a greater concern over a weakening labor market, which may influence the decision to lower rates [7] - Market participants are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed's decision, with long-term holders reluctant to sell at current levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions that maintain demand for safe-haven assets [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased significantly, with implied probabilities rising to approximately 80% [1]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a willingness to adjust interest rates without hindering the inflation decline process, which has influenced market sentiment [1][6]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including PPI, retail sales, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index, which may impact the assessment of December's policy direction [2]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have found solid support around the $4022 level, with key resistance levels identified between $4177 and $4245 [2]. - The current upward momentum in gold prices is expected to continue as long as the market maintains its expectation for a rate cut in December [6]. - If U.S. economic data continues to show weakness, the dollar may weaken further, providing additional upward momentum for gold [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. - The recent airstrikes in Kyiv and the intermittent ceasefire in Gaza have heightened uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [1][5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 下游采购以刚需为主 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-24，沪铜主力合约开于 85750元/吨，收于 86080元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.49%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 86,080元/吨，收于 86,040 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘基本持平。 现货情况： 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价86060~86410元/吨，对当月合约均价升水85元/吨，较前日微降5元。早 盘期铜冲高回落，进口亏损扩大至近1000元/吨，跨月价差维持Contango结构。市场采购情绪受铜价波动抑制，销 售意愿增强令现货升水承压。平水铜主流成交于升水10-60元/吨，好铜资源偏紧，金川大板升水约150元/吨。湿法 铜流通减少，非注册货源成交平淡。预计今日持货商报盘有限，下游以刚需采购为主，现货将维持小幅升水格局。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，国内方面，5月20日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、招商银行、邮储 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen a significant reduction in risk after a prolonged period of deep correction, with recent positive factors such as rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, advancements in AI models, and a busy earnings disclosure period contributing to market activity [1][2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) has shown high liquidity, with daily trading volumes of 6.789 billion, 9.796 billion, and 7.060 billion yuan over the last three trading days, and a mid-day trading volume exceeding 3.4 billion yuan today [1] - As of November 24, 2025, 19 out of 30 companies in the Hang Seng Technology Index have reported Q3 earnings, with 16 companies showing year-on-year revenue growth and 13 companies reporting year-on-year net profit growth [2] Investment Sentiment - A prominent internet company is set to release its Q3 report tonight, which will provide insights into capital expenditure and AI application progress, serving as an important reference for domestic AI development [2] - The recent public testing of the Qianwen App has surpassed 10 million downloads within a week, exceeding competitors like ChatGPT, Sora, and DeepSeek, which has positively impacted market confidence [2] - A leading consumer electronics founder has invested over 100 million HKD in company stock, demonstrating strong confidence in the company's future [2] Fund Performance - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) has experienced a net inflow of 2.76 billion yuan over the last 10 trading days, with its latest share count reaching 58.877 billion, marking a new high for seven consecutive trading days [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index stands at 21.56, which is at a relatively low percentile compared to the past five years, indicating a potential value investment opportunity [2] Fund Characteristics - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) is recognized as a preferred tool for investors looking to allocate to the Hong Kong technology sector, with over 220,000 account holders as of the latest mid-year report [2] - The fund offers advantages such as large scale, good liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with a low annual management fee of 0.2%, making it an attractive option for low-cost investment in Hong Kong technology assets [2]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 1-5 | 55 | 40 | 1208 | -128 | 新疆 | 14574 | 3 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 14793 | -3 | | 白糖 | 1-5 | 53 | 1 | 225 | -77 | 南宁 | 5450 | #N/A | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5595 | -60 | 三、市场信息 1、11 月 24 日棉花期货仓单数量 2240 张，较上一交易日下降 4 张，有效预报 1294 张。 2、11 月 24 日国内各地区棉花到厂价：新疆 14574 元/吨，河南 14828 元/吨，山东 14850 元/吨， 浙江 14903 元/吨。 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | ...