美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）同日报道称，4月份，在对东南亚国家出口激增的推动下，中国4月份出口大幅增长，抵 消了对美出口商品因高额关税开始大幅下降的影响。 报道提到，按人民币计算，4月当月，中国出口较上年同期增长9.3%，大幅超过路透社估计的1.9%的增幅。4月份进口额较上年 同期增长0.8%，而经济学家预期为下降5.9%。 海关数据数据显示，按美元计算，4月份，中国对美出口同比下降逾21%，进口下降近14%。但3月份，中国对美出口增长了 9.1%，原因是出口商在关税上调前纷纷下单囤货。 不过，4月，中国对东盟出口同比增长20.8%（按美元计算），高于3月的11.6%。越南和马来西亚仍是中国对东盟出口的主要目 的地，但中国对印尼和泰国的出口量分别同比增长37%和28%。此外，中国对欧盟出口同比增长8.3%。 【文/观察者网 齐倩】海关总署5月9日对外，外贸延续了平稳增长态势。前4个月我国货物贸易进出口总值14.14万亿元，同比增 长2.4%；4月当月，我国货物贸易进出口3.84万亿元，增长5.6%。 洛杉矶港自华进口量腰斩美媒视频截图 特朗普上台后在全球范围内挑起贸易战，已宣布对从中国进口商品征收14 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】 中国稀土出口管制的影响正在迅速显现。"美国面临两个选择，要么供应链中断，要么和中国谈。这将是痛苦的。"在业界不断的叫苦 声中，美国政府也是真的急了。 据国务院5月9日消息，当天，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织商务部、公安部、国家安全部、海关总署、最高人民法院、最高 人民检察院、国家邮政局等部门在广东省深圳市召开打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动现场会，部署各项具体工作。 会议指出，加强战略矿产资源出口管制事关国家安全和发展利益。国家对镓、锗、锑、钨、中重稀土等战略矿产实施出口管制以来， 部分境外实体与境内不法人员相互勾结，不断翻新走私出口手法，试图逃避打击。为避免战略矿产非法外流、遏制走私势头、切实维 护国家安全，同时促进合规贸易、保障产供链稳定，打击战略矿产走私出口成为当前迫切且重要的工作任务。 5月9日，彭博社援引消息称，特朗普政府正考虑大幅降低对华关税，同时希望中方采取同等举措，并取消对美稀土出口限制。值得注 意的是，同日，中国国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室部署开展多部门专项行动，重点打击战略矿产走私出口。 "请中方取消出口限制，是美国重要目标" 据知情人士所称，在美国的愿望清单上 ...

中国欧盟商会近期进行在线问卷，调查中美关税与贸易措施升级对其会员企业产生的影响。英国《金融 时报》报道，5月8日发布的调查结果显示，由于中国提高关税导致美国进口产品被挤出市场，多数在中 国运营的欧洲公司已经感受到或预计将感受到中美贸易战的一些"积极影响"。 调查显示，19%的受访公司已经从中国本国客户或在华运营的外国客户那里获得了更多业务。调查还发 现，36%的受访公司预计将感受到积极影响。 虽然57%受访企业表示其商业战略尚未改变，但是将会持续关注形势变化。在已经采取措施的受访企业 中，17%表示正在调整采购方式，14%表示正在考量增加在华投资。表示已经或计划将有关生产移出美 国的受访者占比为9%。 《金融时报》报道称，尽管中国已是世界最大出口国，外国公司仍在华发挥着重要作用。由外国投资者 全资或部分拥有的公司贡献中国贸易总额的30%左右，其中许多公司利用进口原料在中国生产商品，供 国内销售或出口。 中国欧盟商会主席彦辞表示："这场贸易战给会员带来的不确定性难以言表。但我们相信中国可以转危 为机，展现其作为投资目的地应具备的稳定性与可预测性。" 彦辞表示："我们听到的消息是，许多（在华的）欧洲公司正在与美国 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have slightly decreased, with overall prices remaining above 1020 CNY per gram, indicating a high market level [1] - Major gold retailers like Zhou Liufu have seen a price drop of 18 CNY per gram, with the latest price at 1022 CNY per gram, which is the highest among the stores [1] - The price difference between gold stores has narrowed significantly to 29 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recovery market has also seen a decline, with gold store recovery prices dropping by 22.3 CNY per gram [2] - Specific recovery prices for various brands are as follows: Cai Zi at 768.70 CNY, Zhou Shengsheng at 766.30 CNY, and Zhou Dafu at 770.70 CNY [2] Group 3 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a peak at 3414.49 USD per ounce before closing at 3305.30 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.76% [4] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the US-UK trade agreement, which alleviated market concerns about trade wars, alongside strong US economic data and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve [4] - Current market sentiment suggests that if a US-China trade agreement is reached, gold prices may face significant resistance and could drop to at least 3200 USD per ounce [4]

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 成本：布油主力合约收盘 61.1 美元/桶（-1.1 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 58.1 美元/桶（-1.0 美元/桶）。5 月 8 日华东纯苯现货报价 5605 元/吨（-55 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.0 万吨（-0.6 万吨），环比小幅下降 2.97%，江苏 港口库存 6.85 万吨（-1.67 万吨），环比下降 19.6%，苯乙烯库存持续去化，现货流动 性继续收紧。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应有增量预期。受部分装置重启影响，节前 苯乙烯周产量环比提升 3.77%至 32.29 万吨（+1.17 万吨），工厂产能利用率 70.5% （+2.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率劳动节期间变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 48.7%（- 8.3%），ABS 产能利用率 67.1%（+2.1%），PS 产能利用率 58.7%（环比不变）。整体而言 下游需求走弱。 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 苯乙烯日报：中美高层会晤近日进行，市场震荡等候方向 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：5 月 8 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the role of artificial intelligence in San Francisco's recovery post-pandemic, raising questions about Nvidia's own growth amidst increasing competition and trade tensions [1]. Group 1: Nvidia's Current Situation - Nvidia's stock price has dropped nearly 21% from its recent high of $149.42 on January 6, attributed to rising competition from DeepSeek and the impact of trade wars [1]. - Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya predicts that tariff headwinds could reduce Nvidia's revenue from China by $15 billion to $20 billion, casting a shadow over the upcoming earnings report [1]. - Nvidia has informed major clients in China, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, about modifications to its AI chip design to comply with U.S. export restrictions, which is expected to result in a $5.5 billion loss in Q1 performance [1]. Group 2: Broader Industry Context - The performance of the seven major tech giants, including Nvidia, has lagged behind the S&P 500 index this year, contrasting sharply with expectations for 2024 [2]. - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) shows that the expected revenue and earnings for these seven companies have reached historical highs, indicating their enduring market dominance [4]. - The Magnificent Seven companies account for 28.4% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, 22.6% of expected revenue, and 11.8% of expected earnings [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Valuation - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, emphasizing ongoing market uncertainty due to trade policy and negative GDP growth in Q1 [6]. - Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio has significantly compressed this year, yet the stock remains expensive compared to the S&P 500 [7]. - The earnings gap between the Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500 is narrowing, with projections indicating that this gap will reduce to 2% by Q4 as earnings growth slows [7]. - As the returns of the Magnificent Seven lag behind the S&P 500, justifying the purchase of such expensive stocks becomes increasingly difficult despite Nvidia's high PEG ratio and other positive factors [9].

Core Insights - A stock market indicator has entered a historical phase associated with poor return prospects for the S&P 500 index, influenced by trade tensions that have weakened U.S. corporate earnings growth [1] - The Bloomberg industry research stock market cycle model has categorized the market into three phases: accelerating growth, moderate growth, and decline, with the current model indicating a bearish signal for the first time since February 2022 [1][3] Group 1: Market Cycle and Indicators - The stock market cycle model has entered a warning red zone, with the S&P 500 index having dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023, currently about 1% below long-term support [3] - The average decline for the S&P 500 during previous red cycles has been 5.6% over the following 12 months, with the current cycle being the first bearish signal since the onset of concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1][5] - The model is based on six factors, including the correlation of component stock returns and the annual change in the benchmark index's price-to-book ratio [3] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The recent red cycle is characterized by a significant drop in the S&P 500 index and a decline in its price-to-book ratio growth rate, aligning with historical red cycle patterns [3][5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that interest rate cuts will not occur until there is clarity on trade policy from the White House, despite acknowledging a decline in consumer and business confidence [3] - Analysts suggest that a shift towards a more optimistic outlook may require the White House to ease its protectionist stance, which could alleviate stagflation concerns and improve corporate earnings prospects [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has begun imposing tariffs on over 80 Chinese products, responding to pressure from the United States amid ongoing trade tensions initiated by President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: EU Actions - The EU has previously imposed tariffs on certain Chinese goods since January, citing "anti-dumping" measures, and the recent tariffs on mobile elevating work platforms add to this list [3]. - The EU claims that Chinese products benefit from unfair subsidies and are sold below normal prices, justifying the tariffs [3]. Group 2: Impact on China - The tariffs are expected to significantly reduce the competitiveness of Chinese products in the EU market, leading to a decrease in orders for affected companies [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has criticized the EU's actions as "selective enforcement," arguing that it creates trade barriers and violates World Trade Organization (WTO) rules [3]. Group 3: China's Response - China has indicated that it understands some countries may negotiate under pressure from the US, but any actions that harm Chinese interests will lead to reciprocal measures [5]. - A recent bilingual video released by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized China's refusal to submit to US "bullying" tactics, asserting the need for a firm stance to protect national interests [5][7]. - China does not oppose countries aligning with the US, provided it does not come at the expense of Chinese interests, warning of potential retaliation if such boundaries are crossed [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by American farmers in finding alternative markets for products like chicken feet and fish heads, which were previously exported to China but are now affected by high tariffs due to trade tensions [1][2][12]. Group 1: Impact on Chicken Feet Exports - American farmers are struggling to adapt to new tariffs imposed by China, which has significantly reduced the demand for chicken feet, a product that is popular in China but not in the U.S. [1][2] - In 2022, the export volume of chicken feet to China reached 479,700 tons, making it the largest export market for this product [1]. - The president of the U.S. Poultry & Egg Export Council stated that the latest tariffs could drive chicken feet exports "close to zero" [1]. Group 2: Broader Implications for U.S. Agriculture - The imposition of a 125% retaliatory tariff by China on U.S. imports has led to a significant loss of market for American chicken feet, forcing farmers to consider freezing the product or repurposing it for animal feed [2]. - The U.S. Meat Export Federation reported that the actual tariff rate on U.S. pork products has risen to 172%, severely impacting exports of pork by-products to China, which accounted for over half of U.S. exports [6]. - The economic loss for U.S. farmers due to the trade dispute is estimated to be around $1 billion annually, with each pig potentially losing $8 to $10 in value [6]. Group 3: Fish Head Exports and Alternative Markets - The Two Rivers Fisheries Company, a major fish exporter in Kentucky, reported a 20% expected revenue drop due to canceled orders for fish heads after the tariffs were imposed [8]. - The company processed 1.6 million kilograms of Asian carp in 2024, with China being the sole export market for fish heads [8]. - The owner of the company is now considering targeting the Asian community in the U.S. or exploring markets in South Korea and Vietnam as alternatives [8][9]. Group 4: Overall Agricultural Crisis - The trade tensions have led to widespread cancellations of agricultural orders across various sectors, with the American Agricultural Transportation Coalition describing the situation as a "full-blown crisis" [11]. - The rising costs of fertilizers, pest control chemicals, and agricultural machinery due to tariffs are further exacerbating the challenges faced by American farmers [11].

日本、韩国与美国的关税谈判，或陷入拉锯战！ 卢特尼克在接受彭博电视台采访时表示："你必须花大量时间与日本、韩国打交道。这些交易不会很快达成。"卢特 尼克补充道，印度为达成协议也"非常努力"，有可能成为下一个达成协议的国家之一。但他警告称，这是一项艰巨 的工作。 据最新消息，美国商务部长卢特尼克警告称，美国跟日本、韩国的关税谈判要花大量时间，协议不会很快达成。 在卢特尼克发表上述言论之际，美国与英国在周四达成了一份贸易协议。然而，协议的诸多细节尚待敲定，美方此 前加征的10%所谓"对等关税"也未取消。《纽约时报》称，美英达成的这项协议看起来更像是一个框架协议，而非完 整的贸易协议。 Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan指出，到目前为止，英国金融市场几乎没有表现出任何欣喜若狂的迹象，这足以 说明投资者是如何看待这一协议的。这远非一个全面的贸易协定，可能需要几个月甚至几年的时间才能最终敲定。 美国商务部长发出警告 北京时间5月9日消息，卢特尼克表示，与韩国和日本的贸易协议可能比英美周四达成的框架协议需要更长的时间才 能完成。 卢特尼克称，"说到印度，打个比方在协议下可能需要修改或调整7000项关税，这需要 ...