周二，澳元兑美元汇率呈现上升态势，主要受澳大利亚央行最新公布的12月货币政策会议纪要影响。 市场对美联储可能延续宽松货币政策的预期，同时给美元带来一定压力，进一步助推了澳元的走势。 根据澳大利亚央行会议纪要，委员会成员对当前货币政策是否仍具有足够限制性表示出更多谨慎。 纪要中指出，近期数据显示通胀压力可能比预期更为持久，因此政策制定者认为需要更多时间来评估通胀的持续性。委员会表示将在后续会议中继续评估政 策走势，并注意到重要通胀数据将于明年2月会议前公布。此外，会议中也提及了在2026年适时调整利率的可能性。 从走势来看，澳元兑美元汇率目前维持在0.6660以下水平。技术图表显示，该汇率近期处于上升通道内，相对强弱指数反映市场存在一定看涨情绪。若继续 上行，近期可能测试0.6685附近水平，并逐步接近0.6707区域。下行方面，0.6630附近构成短期支撑，若跌破则可能进一步回调。 其他经济数据方面，美国12月消费者信心指数较初值略有下调，短期通胀预期则小幅上升。 市场数据显示，截至12月18日，澳大利亚证券交易所的30天银行间现金利率期货合约显示，市场对下次澳联储会议加息的预期概率维持在约27%左右。 美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, and bonds. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different assets, offering trading strategies and outlooks based on current economic and industry conditions [2][3][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Low valuation and mine - end news drive the sentiment, but the short - term reality is weak and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 124000 [2] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand expectations are weak, and the rebound space is limited. The EB02 contract is expected to oscillate in the 6300 - 6700 range in the short term [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fluctuate, and the futures rebound. Short - term trading can consider going long on the 2605 contract [4] - **Oils and Fats**: Due to the approaching Christmas holiday, they are expected to show an interval oscillation trend. Palm oil may rebound, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil have limited upward space [5] - **Silver**: Driven by funds during the holiday, it strengthens the upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety margin [7] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market rebounded, and the main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. The current trend is expected to be interval oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [8][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: LPR remained unchanged, and the stock market was strong, suppressing the bond market. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and if participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and stop profit in time [12][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rose. The market has a positive expectation for the future price of precious metals, and it is recommended to hold long positions unilaterally [15][16] 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The index is rising, and it is expected to show an oscillating upward pattern in the short term [18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 92500 - 95000 [23] - **Alumina**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2650 yuan/ton [26] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22600 yuan/ton [29] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue to oscillate at a high - level interval, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [32] - **Zinc**: The TC stops falling and stabilizes, and the price oscillates. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 [35] - **Tin**: The short - term fundamentals are still strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [40] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 124000 [43] - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12300 - 13000 [46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 11.2 - 11.6 million [51] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It is expected to maintain an interval oscillation, with the rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and the hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range [58] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to maintain an interval oscillation, with the reference range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations on the 05 contract [61] - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract on dips [64] - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract on dips [67] - **Silicon Iron**: It is expected to oscillate in the 5400 - 5650 range [70] - **Manganese Silicon**: It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [73] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of the main contract around 2750 [77] - **Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the disk is expected to have support around 11000 [79] - **Corn**: The disk may maintain a weak pattern, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy release [82] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bearish mindset [83] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic market's upward trend slows down. It is expected to oscillate in a strong - level interval [85] - **Eggs**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to oscillate weakly this week [87] - **Oils and Fats**: They are expected to show an interval oscillation trend. Palm oil may rebound, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil have limited upward space [91] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand expectation is bearish, and the price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to the market consumption [93] - **Apples**: The demand is weak, and the rebound height is limited. It is recommended to exit long positions opportunely [94] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: It is expected to continue a relatively strong trend in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying approach [96] - **PTA**: It follows the raw material PX. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying approach [99] - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material, and the supply - demand expectation is weak [100] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The domestic supply is expected to increase, and the processing fee will be compressed in the short term [102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [103] - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to oscillate in the 5300 - 5600 range [105] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate in the 6300 - 6700 range in the short term [107] - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [109] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [110] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to run weakly [112] - **PVC**: It is expected to maintain an interval arrangement and then weaken after a rebound [114] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to go short on rallies [116] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [117] - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate in the 15000 - 15500 range, and it is recommended to wait and see [120] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure of BR2602 around 11200 - 11300 [122]

澳大利亚央行在2月至8月期间累计降息75个基点，当前政策重心正转向抑制通胀压力抬头。政策委员会 承认，此前宽松行动的影响"尚未完全显现"。 会议记录显示，面对物价再次飙升的经济形势，央行仍在努力评估其政策设置是否适合，这也解释了为 何行长Michele Bullock两周前把进一步降息排除在了选项之外。会议记录还凸显出决策者的谨慎态度， 他们迄今成功引导经济实现了软着陆，失业率也处于历史低位，仅略高于4%。 "如果金融环境仍略显限制性，并且有证据表明通胀压力明显回升很大一部分源于波动性或暂时性因 素，那么将现金利率维持在当前水平一段时间可能足以使经济保持接近平衡的状态。" 货币市场定价显示，澳大利亚央行的下一步行动料为加息，最早可能在2月实施。澳大利亚联邦银行和 澳大利亚国民银行的经济学家预测，在2月举行的2026年首次会议上，央行将把利率上调至3.85%。 来源：环球市场播报 澳大利亚央行12月8日至9日会议的纪要显示，政策委员会讨论了在通胀风险抬头的情况下，2026年可能 需要转向加息的情形，同时重申未来的任何政策调整都将取决于经济数据。 根据周二发布的会议纪要，澳大利亚央行两周前将现金利率维持在3.6% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities in the futures market, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news for each commodity, along with corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Platinum**: Domestic and international markets resonate, and the bullish sentiment remains unabated, with a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. - **Palladium**: The climbing pace has slowed, with an upward trend in oscillations, and a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose as the US dollar declined, with a trend intensity of 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][15]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Supply has encountered new disruptions, with a trend intensity of 1 [18][22]. - **Aluminum**: Range - bound oscillations, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina had a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 0; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the news of Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: Not specifically mentioned in a comprehensive way, but some related commodities like fuel oil and asphalt are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rose, and short - term volatility increased, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly followed the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price had a narrow - range adjustment, remaining stable despite the oil price trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [80][89]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Do not chase the high price, and it is in a high - level oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **MEG**: The trend is relatively weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products have been redirected, and the valuation support is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [94][96]. - **PP**: The PDH profit has been compressed again, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: A short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, with a trend intensity of 0 [100][102]. - **Methanol**: Oscillations are supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [112][115]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [116][119]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **LPG**: The external cost is relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [127][132]. - **Propylene**: There are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the short - term trend is supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [128][132]. - **PVC**: A short - term rebound, but the upward space may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [136][137]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production cut is gradually being realized, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend intensity of 1 [168][174]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans rebounded, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, with a trend intensity of 0 [168][174]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans rose overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate, with a trend intensity of +1 [175][177]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [175][177]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][181]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis, with a trend intensity of 0 [182][185]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [187][191]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Hogs**: Hold the reverse spread, with a trend intensity of - 1 [195][200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [202][204]. Others - **Logs**: Low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [59][62]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center has moved up, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [104][106]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [109][110]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Iron**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is strongly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The long and short sentiments are intertwined, and the trend is widely oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [55][58]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Near - term contracts should focus on the opening guidance, while far - term contracts should focus on the progress of the Gaza peace talks, with a trend intensity of 0 [141][155]. - **Short Fibre**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with compressed processing fees, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [160]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [165][166].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4] - Silver: Reaching new highs [2][4] - Copper: With the dollar falling, the price is rising [2][8] - Zinc: Trading in a narrow range [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting the price [2][14] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][16] - Aluminum: Trading within a range; Alumina: Slightly rebounding; Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: Domestic and international markets are in resonance, and bullish sentiment remains strong [2][24] - Palladium: The upward pace has slowed, and it is moving up in a volatile manner [2][24] - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, but Indonesian policies are causing concerns [2][28] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines is causing fluctuations [2][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 979.90 with a -0.06% daily change; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% daily change. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% daily change; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% daily change [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Gold 2602 had a trading volume of 328,878 (up 87,762 from the previous day) and an open interest of 189,662 (down 7,090 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver 2602 had a trading volume of 1,904,227 (up 332,489 from the previous day) and an open interest of 337,467 (down 25,935 from the previous day) [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory was 91,716 kg (unchanged from the previous day); Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 36,070,160 (up 78,815 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver inventory was 899,636 kg (down 12,528 from the previous day); Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 453,176,217 (up 225,434 from the previous day) [4] News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is said to have performed "outstandingly" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives. Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [4] - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgency to cut interest rates further, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4] Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 94,320 with a 1.22% daily change; the LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,911 with a 0.34% daily change [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper index had a trading volume of 404,771 (up 90,659 from the previous day) and an open interest of 645,520 (up 13,578 from the previous day). The LME Copper 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 15,865 (down 3,536 from the previous day) and an open interest of 345,000 (up 2,699 from the previous day) [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 48,542 (up 2,803 from the previous day); LME Copper inventory was 157,750 (down 2,650 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 32.81% (down 2.39% from the previous day) [8] News - Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in the country [8] - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [8] - Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [8] Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 23,115 with a 0.17% daily change; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3078 with a 0.65% daily change [11] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a trading volume of 134,424 (up 46,063 from the previous day) and an open interest of 90,612 (up 4,247 from the previous day). The LME Zinc had a trading volume of 8,494 (down 14,475 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,088 (up 1,627 from the previous day) [11] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,590 tons (down 2,588 from the previous day); LME Zinc inventory was 99,250 tons (down 650 from the previous day) [11] News - The Japanese Finance Minister warned the foreign exchange market, suggesting that the intervention threshold has been approved by the US. The Japanese government's aggressive fiscal stimulus has pushed up Japanese government bond yields to a 27 - year high [11] - 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed does not need to cut interest rates at least until next spring, and the November CPI inflation data may be distorted [11] Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,920 with a 0.24% daily change; the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1984.5 with a 1.25% daily change [14] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract had a trading volume of 49,244 (down 7,217 from the previous day) and an open interest of 59,586 (down 2,591 from the previous day). The LME Lead had a trading volume of 5,862 (down 6,084 from the previous day) and an open interest of 177,303 (up 635 from the previous day) [14] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 13,838 tons (down 349 from the previous day); LME Lead inventory was 255,950 tons (down 2,675 from the previous day) [14] News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [14] - Trump's "appointed" Fed理事Milan said the Fed will face a recession risk if it does not cut interest rates next year. A 2026 Fed voter is hawkish, saying there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the November CPI is underestimated [14] Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily change; the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% daily change [16] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract had a trading volume of 240,305 (down 3,224 from the previous day) and an open interest of 33,801 (down 107 from the previous day). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 180 (down 9 from the previous day) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53 from the previous day) [16] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,844 (up 242 from the previous day); LME Tin inventory was 4,645 (up 220 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 6.57% (down 0.38% from the previous day) [16] News - Similar to gold and silver news, including Fed Chairmanship competition, Fed's Williams' remarks, Japanese central bank's interest rate hike, etc. [16] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,220. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2956. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract had a trading volume of 253,929 and an open interest of 314,299. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 2.70 million tons [21] - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2498. The main contract had a trading volume of 170,083 and an open interest of 151,207 [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,290. The main contract had a trading volume of 4,594 and an open interest of 17,184 [21] News - Goldman Sachs believes that the global market in 2026 will be a "Song of Ice and Fire." The asset valuation is "overheated," and AI valuation has led the fundamentals significantly [23] - China's energy storage batteries are booming, with expected global shipments to jump 75% this year [23] Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 568.45 with a 6.54% increase; palladium futures 2606 closed at 508.45 with a 5.88% increase [24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Platinum had a trading volume of 54,306 (down 99,605 from the previous day) and an open interest of 41,087 (up 3,000 from the previous day). Shanghai Palladium had a trading volume of 28,327 (down 80,134 from the previous day) and an open interest of 17,699 (up 2,478 from the previous day) [24] News - Fed理事Milan said the necessity of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened. Trump may appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January next year [27] - The negotiation between Ukraine and the US ended, and Zelensky said the key work of the "peace plan" draft was completed [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121,260. The 1 imported nickel price was 118,825 [28] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 [28] News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [28] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29] - The Indonesian government has taken various measures regarding the nickel mining and smelting industry, such as sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB approval procedures, and suspension of new smelting license issuance [29][30][31]

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美联储的哈马克表示，鉴于数据收集存在技术性失真，11月美国2.7%的消费者价格指数数据或许低估 了物价涨幅，中性利率水平可能高于市场普遍预期，因此要对通胀保持警惕。她更担忧居高不下的通 胀，而非潜在的劳动力市场脆弱性。哈马克认为，在过去三次连续降息后，美联储未来几个月内没必要 对利率进行任何调整，因此倾向于在2026年春季前维持利率稳定。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯上周五也公开表示，12月的降息措施已使货币政策处于"非常有利的位 置"，美联储目前并不迫切需要进一步降低利率。他强调，目前的政策立场已经平衡，并指出近期数据 中存在技术性扭曲，为判断经济形势增添了复杂性。未来需要观察更多数据才能对再次降息感到放心， 并称2026年1月底的会议是否行动将是一个艰难的决定。他同时澄清，美联储近期扩大资产负债表、购 买国库券的操作是技术性的，旨在为银行系统提供必要的准备金，而非量化宽松政策。 美联储理事米兰则表示，劳动力市场正朝着不利的方向发展，而要阻止这一进程，必须放宽相关政策以 助力劳动力市场复苏。 转自：经济参考报 新华财经北京12月23日电（记者 周武英）美联储2025年12月实施了年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - President Trump plans to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January 2026, with current Chair Powell's term ending in May 2026. Trump emphasizes the need for a successor who supports "growth-friendly" monetary policy to promote economic expansion [1] - Treasury Secretary Becerra states that inflation is steadily approaching the Fed's 2% target, predicting that 2026 will see simultaneous improvement in economic growth and price stability. He notes that government efficiency improvements will further optimize the overall economic situation [1] - Fed Governor Milan warns that pausing interest rate cuts in 2026 could increase the risk of recession. He emphasizes that rising unemployment should prompt policymakers to maintain an accommodative stance [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack suggests that after three consecutive rate cuts, interest rate policy should remain stable in the coming months, arguing that the primary risk remains stubborn inflation rather than a weak job market [1] Group 2: EU Sanctions and Currency Intervention - The EU has decided to extend comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia for six months, effective until July 31, 2026, covering key areas such as trade, finance, energy, technology, and transportation. The EU is also implementing special measures to combat sanction evasion [2] - Japan's Finance Minister Katayama asserts that Japan retains the discretion to take decisive action in response to significant currency fluctuations that deviate from economic fundamentals, emphasizing the potential for "bold intervention" if necessary [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 48,362.68 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% to 6,878.49 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.52% to 23,428.83 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.13% to $4,480.60 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main US oil contract rising by 2.53% to $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 2.45% to $61.52 per barrel [5] - US Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.96 basis points to 3.507%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.74 basis points to 4.165% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 98.26, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver are reaching new records, marking their best year since 1979, while copper is also at new highs, achieving its best year since 2009 [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Outlook - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend in the first half of 2026, with a projected quarterly high of $4,400, indicating a trading high of approximately $4,647 [2] - The anticipated continuation of this commodity trade is attributed to lower Federal Reserve funds rates and a steepening yield curve, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target [2] Group 2: Portfolio Adjustments - Central banks globally are adjusting their strategies, with investors shifting their portfolios to include up to 25% exposure in commodities, which encompasses gold, silver, oil, and copper [3] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio model is evolving as investors seek to hedge against the declining value of the US dollar [3] Group 3: Economic Considerations - The economy is showing signs of slowing, with employment numbers declining, which may lead to reduced inflationary pressures and a potential decrease in aggressive tariff actions against US trading partners [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to easing, influenced by the upcoming changes in leadership and the administration's pressure for accommodative policies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) decision-maker Schnabel indicates that while interest rate hikes are not expected in the foreseeable future, persistent inflation pressures will ultimately necessitate an increase in borrowing costs [1][1]. Group 1 - Schnabel believes that interest rate hikes are unlikely in the near term [1]. - Despite the current stance on interest rates, there are ongoing inflationary forces that may lead to future rate increases [1].