宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"下部分行业格局快速变化导致就业压力的风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 旧换新"政策观察 追求精细化，开启新阶段——2026 年"以 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 04 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "old for new" policy in 2026 aims to stimulate consumer spending, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with significant financial support from the government [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 625 billion yuan for the first batch of special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" policy [2]. - The policy covers various sectors, including automotive, home appliances, and digital products, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending during the New Year holiday [3][4]. - The policy aims to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies by removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector [4]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - In Xi'an, most offline stores have begun to implement the new subsidy policy, offering around 1,000 yuan in subsidies for products like televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines [2][5]. - Sales data from January 1 to 2, 2026, in Hebei showed a total sales volume of 5.90 billion yuan, with 813.24 million yuan in subsidies utilized [7]. - In Henan, the sales of household appliances reached 26.86 million yuan in the first two days of the holiday, indicating a positive impact from the policy [8]. Group 3: Market Trends - The policy has led to a significant increase in sales of energy-efficient and water-efficient appliances, with 92% of products sold in major stores meeting these standards [5][12]. - The sales of smartphones and smartwatches saw a remarkable increase of 170% and 115% respectively, indicating a strong demand for digital products [6]. - The policy is expected to drive innovation and upgrades in the electronics and home appliance industries, benefiting both consumers and the economy [10][12]. Group 4: Policy Adjustments - The new policy includes specific adjustments, such as a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for new car purchases and a 12% subsidy for electric vehicle scrappage [9]. - Subsidies for home appliances are set at 15% of the product price for energy-efficient models, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [9]. - The policy emphasizes the importance of standards in promoting energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions [12].

Group 1 - The 2026 national offline "national subsidy" program launched in Guangzhou, marking the first transaction on January 1, 2026, with consumers eager to participate [1] - The new subsidy policy extends beyond automobiles and home appliances to include digital and smart products, such as smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products [2] - The first automotive transaction under the new subsidy program was completed with the purchase of a GAC Aion i60 electric SUV, highlighting the program's immediate impact on consumer behavior [2] Group 2 - Guangzhou's commercial enterprises leveraged the "national subsidy" policy to create a vibrant marketing campaign during the New Year holiday, enhancing consumer engagement through various promotional activities [3] - Retailers like Guangbai Electric and JD Mall organized diverse events, including street dance competitions and live performances, to create an immersive shopping experience [3] - The "Two New" policies implemented in 2025 have shown significant economic impact, with a total sales boost of 61.59 billion yuan from the old-for-new program, particularly in the automotive sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and auto parts industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global deliveries fell short of expectations, decreasing by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter to 418,000 units, primarily due to the cancellation of the IRA subsidy in the U.S. [2] - NIO regained the top position among new energy vehicle manufacturers in December, with deliveries increasing by 54.6% year-on-year and 32.7% quarter-on-quarter to 48,135 units [2]. - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy for 2026 is expected to boost market performance in Q1 2026, with a focus on optimizing the growth structure of the automotive market [4]. Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries were 418,000 units, down 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter, with Model 3 and Model Y deliveries at 407,000 units, down 13.8% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - NIO's December deliveries reached 48,135 units, with a year-on-year increase of 54.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [2]. - Li Auto's deliveries were 44,246 units, down 24.4% year-on-year but up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Xpeng's deliveries were 37,508 units, reflecting a slight increase of 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. New Year Promotions - Tesla will continue its 0% financing policy for five years on Model 3 and Model Y, with specific delivery timelines set for February 2026 [3]. - NIO and other new energy vehicle manufacturers are offering various promotional incentives, including cash subsidies and extended delivery timelines for certain models [3]. Policy Impact - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy will extend the scope of eligible vehicles and adjust the subsidy method to a percentage of the new vehicle sales price, which is expected to positively impact the automotive market [4]. - The report recommends focusing on NIO and Xpeng for vehicle manufacturers, and on Fuyao Glass and other component manufacturers for investment opportunities [4].

Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy in China is projected to generate over 2.6 trillion yuan in sales by 2025, benefiting more than 360 million consumers and serving as a significant driver for consumption growth and industrial upgrading [1][2] Group 1: Policy Impact on Sales - By 2025, the "old-for-new" policy will lead to the replacement of over 11.5 million vehicles, 129 million home appliances, 9.1 million digital products, 12 million home renovation items, and 1.25 million electric bicycles [1] - From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing over 1 percentage point to this growth [1] Group 2: Industrial Upgrading - The policy has significantly enhanced industrial quality, with nearly 60% of replaced vehicles being new energy vehicles, and over 90% of replaced home appliances being high-efficiency products [1] - The recycling of scrapped vehicles is projected to increase by 24.5% in 2025, leading to the recycling of approximately 9.6 million tons of steel and 1.3 million tons of non-ferrous metals, while reducing carbon emissions by about 24.5 million tons [1] Group 3: Consumer Safety and Experience - Over 4.8 billion subsidies have been issued directly to consumers since the policy's implementation, with a significant number of new green, low-carbon, and smart products entering the market [2] - The replacement of old electric bicycles has exceeded nine times that of 2024, with 90% of new bicycles meeting national safety standards [2] Group 4: Economic Revitalization - The "old-for-new" policy has revitalized offline retail, with consumers increasingly opting for in-store experiences, leading to over 30% growth in surrounding merchant consumption in areas with concentrated home appliance replacement stores [2] - The Ministry of Commerce indicates that the policy will continue to evolve, further stimulating consumption potential and promoting green and low-carbon transitions for high-quality economic development [2]

Core Insights - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with related product sales expected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan by 2025, benefiting over 360 million people [1] - The policy has led to substantial growth in various sectors, including over 11.5 million cars, 129 million home appliances, and 9.1 million digital products being replaced [1] - The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with the "old-for-new" initiative contributing over 1 percentage point to this growth [1] Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, nearly 60% of the "old-for-new" transactions involved new energy vehicles, with the market share of new energy passenger cars exceeding 50% for nine consecutive months [1] - In November 2025, the market share of new energy passenger cars reached 59.4% [1] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance sector saw over 90% of the "old-for-new" transactions involving first-level energy efficiency products [1] - Retail sales in the home appliance sector surpassed 1 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1] Consumer Behavior - Since the implementation of the policy in September 2024, over 480 million subsidies have been distributed directly to consumers, promoting the adoption of green, low-carbon, and smart products [1] - More consumers are opting for in-store experiences and enjoying subsidies, leading to increased cross-scenario consumption in leisure, entertainment, and dining [2] - In areas with concentrated home appliance "old-for-new" stores, consumer spending within a 1-kilometer radius has increased by over 30% [2]

Group 1 - In 2025, new car manufacturers in China achieved significant delivery milestones, with Leap Motor leading the annual sales with 596,555 units, followed by Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng Motors [2][5] - The overall performance of the new energy vehicle sector showed high growth, with many brands setting monthly delivery records in December 2025, indicating a strong end to the year [3][4] - The competitive landscape among new car manufacturers is becoming clearer, with distinct tiers emerging based on annual sales performance [5][6] Group 2 - Leap Motor exceeded its annual target of 500,000 units, achieving 596,555 units, marking a 103% year-on-year increase, and aims for 1 million units in 2026 [8] - Xiaopeng Motors and Xiaomi also surpassed their annual targets, with deliveries of 429,445 units and over 410,000 units respectively, showcasing strong market performance [8] - NIO and Ideal Auto faced challenges in meeting their targets, with NIO achieving only 326,028 units against a goal of 440,000 units, and Ideal Auto delivering approximately 406,315 units against a revised target of 640,000 units [9] Group 3 - The 2026 automotive policy focuses on cost reduction, standardization, and upgrading, which is expected to enhance the penetration of new energy vehicles while supporting the traditional fuel vehicle market [11][14] - Key policies include the continuation of the "old for new" vehicle replacement subsidy and a reduction in vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles, aimed at stabilizing consumer expectations [12][13][14] - The automotive market in 2026 is anticipated to maintain a structure where new energy vehicles lead, supported by favorable policies, while new car manufacturers must leverage technological advancements and product innovation to solidify their market positions [14]

本报北京1月1日电 （记者王珂）记者1日从商务部获悉：2025年以旧换新政策取得显著成效，全年以旧 换新相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1150万辆，家电以旧换新 超1.29亿件，手机等数码产品购新超9100万部，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件，电动自行车以旧换新超1250 万辆。 促进经济绿色转型。2025年，报废汽车回收量增长24.5%，实现循环利用钢材约960万吨、铜铝锂等有 色金属约130万吨，减少碳排放约2450万吨。 提高人民生活品质。自2024年9月政策全面实施以来，已累计发放直达消费者的补贴超4.8亿份，一大批 绿色、低碳、智能的新产品进入百姓生活。2025年，每卖出两辆家用新车，就有一辆享受了汽车以旧换 新补贴。老旧电动自行车淘汰更新量超过2024年的9倍，换新的电动自行车均具备符合现行国家标准的 产品合格证和CCC证书，安全性更好的铅酸电池车辆占比约90%。 （文章来源：人民日报） 支撑消费持续扩大。2025年1—11月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.0%，较上年同期加快0.5个百分 点，以旧换新带动社零总额增长超1个百分点；家电零售额已超2024年全年 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, new energy vehicle manufacturers in China achieved significant delivery milestones, with a clear differentiation in competitive tiers among brands [2][5][8]. Delivery Performance - In December 2025, a total of 11 new energy vehicle manufacturers reported their delivery data, with Leap Motor leading at 596,555 units for the year, followed by Hongmeng Zhixing at 589,107 units and Xiaopeng Motors at 429,445 units [2][5]. - December saw a surge in deliveries, with over 60% of brands setting monthly records, indicating a strong end-of-year performance [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The top tier of manufacturers (over 400,000 units) includes Leap Motor, Hongmeng Zhixing, and Xiaopeng Motors, showcasing a clear competitive hierarchy [5][6]. - Leap Motor's strategy of high cost-performance and a diverse product lineup contributed to its 103% year-on-year growth [5]. - Hongmeng Zhixing's high-end models accounted for over 15% of its sales, reflecting its strong position in the premium SUV market [5][6]. Target Achievement - Leap Motor exceeded its annual target of 500,000 units by 19.32%, setting a new goal of 1 million units for 2026 [8]. - Xiaopeng Motors also surpassed its target of 350,000 units, achieving 429,445 units, driven by strong sales of its MONAM03 and P7+ models [8]. - Xiaomi Motors completed its target with 41,000 units, achieving a completion rate of 117.14% [8]. Challenges Faced - NIO fell short of its target of 440,000 units, completing only 326,028 units, with increased competition in the high-end market [9]. - Li Auto adjusted its target down to 640,000 units but only delivered approximately 406,315 units, facing challenges from competitors [9]. - Hongmeng Zhixing faced the most significant pressure, completing only 58.91% of its ambitious target of 1 million units [9]. Policy Environment - The automotive industry in 2026 is expected to benefit from continued policy support focused on cost reduction and market upgrades, particularly for new energy vehicles [11][14]. - Key policies include subsidies for trade-ins and reduced vehicle purchase taxes, which are anticipated to enhance market penetration for new energy vehicles [12][13][14].

2026年"国补"来了 燃动新年消费市场 据悉，广百股份旗下广百电器同步启动"重磅优惠促销季"，推出"省补焕新""折扣满减叠加""套购补贴 满额减"三重补贴。旗下门店结合自身定位打造特色消费体验，如北京路店以节日巡游传递祝福，天河 中怡店举办街舞大赛，新大新国风店举办跨年音乐会，友谊环市东店创新推出马术主题活动等，构 建"购物+娱乐"的沉浸式消费生态。沙园家电则在跨年夜举行狂欢活动，以买赠礼品吸引顾客；京东 MALL作为此次"首单"落地门店，举办跨年狂欢、乐队表演等活动；苏宁易购作为首批启动企业，于1 月1日推出"国补迎新，双补临门"活动，以场景创新重塑高端消费体验。 元旦假期期间，广州商贸企业通过打造丰富多元的消费场景与诚意十足的优惠活动，将政策红利切实转 化为市场活力与消费热度，为迎接元旦消费旺季营造了浓厚氛围，令实体商业的活力与吸引力得到进一 步激发。 "新年零点一过就成功下单了！"吴女士兴奋地向记者展示订单，她购买的手机，原价5999元，在享受企 业优惠及品牌补贴后，通过银联云闪付领取资格并支付，又额外享受国家补贴500元，实际支付仅4849 元。此外，她还可以参加抽奖活动。"非常划算！"吴女士说。 ...