Report Summary Core Views - The ongoing partial shutdown of the US federal government has postponed the release of multiple data, and the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP in the US might also be affected [2]. - The US's tariff increase and export control measures against China will likely impact the domestic futures market this week, with negative effects on stock index futures and most commodity futures, and positive effects on Treasury bond futures, gold, and silver futures [2]. - The release of various economic data and reports this week, including China's import and export data, financial statistics, and the US's retail sales and housing data, is expected to influence the futures market [2][4][9] Weekly Key Events and Forecasts October 13 - China's September import and export data: Expected export growth of 7.1% and import growth of 1.5% in USD terms, which may boost stock index and commodity futures prices [4]. - OPEC's monthly crude oil market report: The report's outcome may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [5]. - World Bank and IMF's 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting: Central bank governors may discuss potential market crashes and their impact on the global economy [6]. October 14 - Prices of important production materials in circulation in early October: The data of 9 categories and 50 products may influence the futures market [8]. - IEA's monthly crude oil market report: May affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [10]. October 15 - China's September financial statistics: Expected M2 growth of 8.5%, new RMB loans of 1375 billion yuan, and social financing scale increment of 3450 billion yuan, which may impact the futures market [9][12]. - National energy consumption data: The results may affect relevant futures prices [11]. - WBMS global metal supply - demand report: May impact relevant metal futures prices [13]. October 16 - NOPA soybean crushing report: May affect soybean and related agricultural product futures prices [14]. - Fed's Beige Book: May influence relevant futures prices [15]. - US September retail sales: Expected monthly rates of 0.4% and 0.3% for retail sales and core retail sales respectively, which may slightly inhibit the rise of most commodity futures prices except for gold and silver [16]. October 17 - US EIA crude oil inventory change: Continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [17]. - US September new housing starts and building permits: Slightly higher than previous values may help basic metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18]. - US September industrial output: Expected monthly growth rate of 0.1% [19].

Group 1 - Report's investment rating of the industry: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: The industry is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [3] Group 3 - Macro situation: The U.S. tariff war against China has reignited, causing significant macro - level fluctuations and potentially pressuring steel products [2] - Steel production data: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.55%, a 0.10 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 56.28%, a 0.43 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. In late September, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.889 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9% compared to the previous period; the steel inventory was 14.67 million tons, a 4.1% decrease from the previous ten - day period and an 18.6% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - Market performance: Last week, there were only two trading days, and finished products fluctuated and rebounded slightly, continuing to consolidate at the current low level. The weekly steel data was relatively calm, and changes in inventory and apparent demand were more affected by holidays. There was a slight divergence between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with hot - rolled coils under more pressure [2] - Later concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed significant volatility, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index being the first to turn positive amidst a broader market decline following a global downturn on October 13 [1][2][6]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened sharply lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.49%, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.88%, and ChiNext Index down 4.44%. However, during the continuous auction phase, major indices narrowed their losses, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising over 1% [7][8]. - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index narrowed its loss to under 1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index were down 1.64% and 1.61%, respectively. The Sci-Tech 50 Index was up 1.33% [7]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, industries such as comprehensive services, automotive, machinery equipment, home appliances, and media saw the largest declines. Conversely, sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, banking, and agriculture showed relative resilience [9]. Company-Specific News - Wentech Technology opened at a limit down and remained at that level during the continuous auction phase. The company announced that its subsidiary, Anshi Semiconductor, received a ministerial order and a court ruling from the Netherlands, which temporarily limits its control over the subsidiary [10][11][13]. Market Sentiment on Tariffs - Multiple brokerage firms expressed views on the impact of the new round of tariffs on the market, generally believing that the effects would not be as severe as the "reciprocal tariffs" from April. For instance, the experience from April indicated that the market's reaction to tariff announcements could be mitigated by ongoing negotiations [5][15]. - Research from various institutions suggested that the current market sentiment is more prepared for tariff impacts compared to previous instances, with expectations that the upcoming APEC meeting could provide a platform for negotiations [16][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant information provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The macro - factor has weakened due to the US tariff war and the federal government shutdown. The domestic methanol supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Price Slightly Decreased, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 10, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2250 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from before the holiday; in South China, it was 2215 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2215 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The basis discount between the East China spot price and the 2601 contract futures price narrowed to 55 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominated, and Methanol Traded Weakly - The tariff war and the government shutdown led to a weakening of the macro - sentiment. The domestic methanol supply - demand fundamentals were also weak. The methanol futures 2601 contract rebounded but lacked upward momentum, with a bearish moving - average arrangement [16]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased, and Weekly Output Increased Significantly - After the holiday, with the resumption of previously - shut - down plants, the domestic methanol supply pressure increased. As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, slightly up 0.87% week - on - week. The weekly output averaged 203.3 tons, up 16.03 tons week - on - week. The supply will remain loose in Q4 [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rose - In Q3, due to weak international demand and India's reduced imports, more methanol was shipped to China. In August 2025, China's methanol imports reached 175.98 tons, up 65.71 tons month - on - month. The high - supply situation of Iranian methanol will continue until the gas - restriction season in Q4 [20]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Slightly Improved, and Olefin Profits Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and MTO/MTP showed different changes. The domestic olefin futures profit was - 146 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [24]. 2.4 Port Inventory Slightly Increased, and Inland Inventory Slightly Decreased - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 127.30 tons, up 0.49 tons week - on - week. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland inventory was 32 tons, down 2.05 tons week - on - week [35]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Shrunk - As of the week of September 30, 2025, coal - to - methanol in Northwest, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia was profitable when calculated by manufacturing cost, but the profitability was lower than before [37]. 3. Conclusion - The macro - factor has weakened, and the domestic methanol supply is high with high import pressure and high port inventory. Although the downstream demand is improving, the olefin profit is poor. The methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [46].

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented export controls on rare earth materials to enhance its export control system, citing the importance of these materials in military applications and the need to maintain global peace and regional stability [2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The export control measures are a legitimate action by the Chinese government based on laws and regulations, aimed at ensuring national security and international safety [2][4]. - China emphasizes that the export controls are not a ban on exports; applications that meet the criteria will be approved, and the government is open to facilitating compliant trade [3][4]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Actions - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese rare earth exports and additional export controls on key software, which China views as a double standard and a violation of fair trade practices [4][5]. - China has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. actions, which it believes undermine the atmosphere for economic talks and harm mutual interests [5][6]. Group 3: Bilateral Relations and Future Cooperation - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and to engage in dialogue based on mutual respect and equality to resolve concerns and manage differences [5][7]. - The Chinese government has indicated that it will take necessary countermeasures to protect its legitimate rights and interests in response to U.S. unilateral actions [6][7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-13 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引发上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。 同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。除了宏观情绪转弱外，当前国内甲醇开 工率和周度产量依然维持偏高 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is "Weak" [1][5] 2. Report's Core View - Due to systemic risks, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan/barrel last Friday, and it may continue this trend on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - Short - term view: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak [1] - Medium - term view: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak and volatile [1][5] - Intraday view: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is a decline [1][5] Driving Factors - Geopolitical and economic factors: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, causing the peripheral financial markets to weaken. The US government is in a shutdown due to the lack of consensus between the two parties. These factors contribute to systemic risks [5] - Supply factors: Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - Geopolitical situation: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing. The "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has diminished [5]

Group 1: Copper Market - The threat of US tariffs has resurfaced, causing a liquidity shock that led to a decline in copper prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][3] - Recent disturbances in the supply of copper from the world's second-largest copper mine and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts previously pushed LME copper prices to $11,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices to over ¥88,000 per ton [2][3] - On November 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, which has heightened market risk aversion and led to significant liquidation of long positions, resulting in a 4.5% drop in both Shanghai and LME copper prices [2][3] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is also experiencing a decline due to the renewed threat of US tariffs and liquidity shocks [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.68% to ¥2,930 per ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 4.62% to ¥2,806 per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased by 10.15% to 651,000 tons, but the demand season is expected to lead to a destocking cycle, with potential price recovery once liquidity shocks ease [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium prices are expected to rebound from the bottom as demand enters a destocking cycle during the peak season [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate remains stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium spodumene has decreased by 2.21% to $839 per ton [4][5] - The production of lithium carbonate has increased by 0.6% to 20,600 tons, and inventory has decreased by 1.5% to 134,800 tons [4][5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will implement a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to accelerate price increases [6] - The price of cobalt has risen by 4.19% to $19.90 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.87% to ¥359,000 per ton [6] - The DRC's cobalt export quota for the period from October 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,100 tons, which is expected to significantly narrow the surplus and potentially lead to a shortage [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights the re-emergence of the trade war between the US and China, with the US imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025, and implementing export controls on key software [2][7] - The ongoing trade conflict is seen as a continuation of the trade barriers established since April 2025, which have not been resolved despite multiple rounds of negotiations [2][8][11] - The potential for a spiral escalation in trade tensions is noted, with both sides likely to continue retaliatory measures, impacting various sectors beyond trade [2][12] Group 2 - Short-term market impacts are expected to be manageable, as the A-share market rebounded quickly after previous trade war shocks, indicating investor resilience and experience [2][13] - In the medium term, structural investment opportunities are anticipated, particularly in sectors benefiting from import substitution and potential domestic policy easing [2][13] - Investment recommendations include increasing allocations to defensive sectors such as utilities and banks in the short term, while focusing on strategic technology sectors like nuclear fusion, AI, and semiconductor manufacturing for medium-term opportunities [3][13]