12月18日，在中国光伏行业协会召开的"2025光伏行业年度大会"上，工业和信息化部电子信息司司长杨旭东表示，2026年，光伏行业治理进入 攻坚期，将进一步加强产能调控，强化光伏制造项目管理，以市场化、法治化的手段推动落后产能有序退出，加快实现产能的动态平衡。 21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 北京报道 去年，"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"首次出现在中央经济工作会议的表述中。根据中国光伏行业协会消息， 对于光伏行业而言，"内卷"意味着严重的供需失衡与价格踩踏。过去一年，光伏行业为破解困局展开了自救与革新，推动产品价格逐渐稳定， 综合整治"内卷式"竞争取得积极成效。今年，中央经济工作会议进一步提出，深入整治"内卷式"竞争。 对于《方案》，中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员黄群慧对21世纪经济报道记者表示，作为新质生产力的一个代表性行业，光伏行业在电子信 息制造业中"内卷式"竞争问题相对突出，加之其产业价格"内卷"、产业链的链条"内卷"程度比较严重，也存在地方"一哄而上"的无序竞争，这 些年光伏产业增速也比较快，对整个电子信息制造业乃至工业增长发挥了重要支撑作用。因此，整治光伏行业的"内卷式"竞争问题，不仅有利 于引导地方有序 ...

Core Viewpoint - "Involution" competition is identified as an inefficient and unfair competition that hinders high-quality economic development in China, necessitating comprehensive rectification efforts as highlighted in recent government meetings [1][9]. Group 1: Theoretical Foundations of "Involution" Competition - "Involution" competition is likened to a "prisoner's dilemma" in game theory, where lack of trust prevents optimal cooperation, leading to harmful outcomes for all parties involved [2]. - From a social psychology perspective, "involution" competition reflects the "theater effect," where aggressive strategies by some firms compel others to follow suit, worsening overall industry conditions [2]. - Economically, "involution" competition represents market failure and resource misallocation, resulting in a low equilibrium where firms engage in homogeneous competition without improving overall returns [2][3]. Group 2: Causes of "Involution" Competition - Supply-demand imbalance is a fundamental cause, with China's strong manufacturing capacity not matched by effective domestic demand, leading to low-level competition among firms [5]. - Insufficient innovation is a deep-rooted issue, as many firms rely on price competition due to market saturation and lack of investment in R&D, resulting in intensified competition without differentiation [6]. - Platform-driven business models exacerbate "involution" competition, as dominant platforms manipulate market dynamics, shifting focus from product innovation to traffic-driven competition [7]. Group 3: Government and Regulatory Responses - Government overreach and lack of oversight contribute to "involution" competition, with local governments pursuing short-term growth at the expense of market health, leading to overcapacity in certain industries [8]. - Recent multi-department efforts have shown positive results in addressing "involution" competition, with improvements in industrial profitability and stabilization of product pricing in key sectors [9]. - Ongoing challenges remain, particularly in traditional industries and emerging sectors, necessitating a sustained and multifaceted approach to governance and regulation [10]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - A systematic approach is required to deepen institutional guarantees and promote a unified national market, enhancing resource allocation and expanding domestic demand [11]. - Strengthening innovation capabilities is essential, encouraging firms to shift from price competition to value creation, thereby enhancing overall industry competitiveness [12]. - Regulatory frameworks must be reinforced to maintain fair competition, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices and ensuring a balanced market environment [13].

12月18日，由中国光伏行业协会主办、隆基绿能科技股份有限公司承办的"2025光伏行业年度大会"在陕西西安成功召开。行业主管 部门、研究机构、咨询分析机构和地方行业组织的领导和专家，与会光伏企业代表一起分析2025年全球/我国光伏产业链各环节发展 变化情况和未来产业发展走势。 以下是中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华出席会议并作"我国光伏行业发展变化分析"主题报告。 PPT全文如下： Contents 01 2025行业发展形势之变 02 2025行业发展理念之变 03 行业发展新路径 2025行业发展形势之变 ▶ 2025年光伏行业在变化中重塑格局 2025年1-10月各环节产量有增有降, 出口量: 2025年1-10月,硅片、电池 制 进 片、组件出口量分别同比增长8.3%、增 各环节增速显著下降 长91.4%和增长6.0%。 ස 造 多晶硅产量约111.3万吨,同比下降29.6%; 出口额： 光伏产品出口额连续两年同比 硅片产量约567GW，同比下降6.7%; I 下降, 1-10月出口额同比下降13.2% 电池片产量约560GW, 同比增长9.8%; 端 组件产量约514GW,同比增长13.5%。 用 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "involution" describes a situation where increased labor does not lead to improved efficiency, which has become a significant social issue in the context of competition [1] - The Chinese government has emphasized the need to address "involutionary" competition, moving from a general approach to a more in-depth and comprehensive strategy [1][2] - The negative externalities of "involutionary" competition include pressure transfer to suppliers and distributors, harming both individual companies and the broader industry [2] Group 2 - The current economic environment in China is characterized by a transition between old and new growth drivers, with traditional industries undergoing transformation while facing external challenges [3] - "Anti-involution" measures are seen as crucial for resolving economic development contradictions and are essential for deepening economic reforms [3] - Companies are encouraged to adopt differentiated competition and enhance quality to escape the "prisoner's dilemma" and ascend the value chain [3]

2025年12月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：宏观情绪好转，商品整体反弹，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑偏强 | 2 | | MEG：关注新的能耗标准，乙二醇供应收缩预期下反弹 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20251218 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | 沥青：低位反弹，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：供应弹性有限，估值继续承压 | 11 | | PP：厂库仓单注销，盘面横盘震荡 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20251218 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：区间运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：短期震荡，趋势承压 | 23 | | 丙烯：短期窄幅调整 | 23 | | PVC：反弹高度受限 | 26 | | 燃料油：夜盘持续反弹，波动上升 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：短期弱势仍在，外盘现货高低硫价差收窄 ...

2025.12. 17 本文字数：3270，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 日前召开的中央经济工作会议明确，制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治"内卷式"竞争，并强 调"加紧清理拖欠企业账款"。 中央财办有关负责同志12月17日详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神时表示，明年要在市场、政府、 企业三个层面采取更具针对性的措施，进一步增强统一大市场的建设成效，实现各类资源要素高效配 置。包括要持续完善市场运行规则、持续规范地方政府经济促进行为、加快完善重点行业产能调控机 制等。 国家发改委副秘书长肖渭明近日在中国经济年会上透露，目前改进提升营商环境的最大动作，就是清 理政府欠款，即单个合同或单个项目欠款50万元以下的，到2025年底要全部清理完毕。要持续破除 阻碍全国统一大市场的卡点、堵点，清理不合理限制，打破市场分割和地方保护，深入推进招投标改 革，改进提升营商环境。 第一财经记者注意到，多部门正加力加快解决拖欠企业账款。工信部党组扩大会议传达学习中央经济 工作会议精神时强调，加紧清理拖欠企业账款，切实减轻企业负担。国资委主任张玉卓也撰文指出， 着力解决拖欠民营企业账款问题，推动国有企业带头解开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the risks associated with industry self-discipline and price coordination, warning that such actions can lead to potential antitrust violations and market inefficiencies [1][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Competition Dynamics - In many industries, including solar energy, home appliances, automotive manufacturing, and internet services, companies are engaged in "involutionary competition," characterized by price wars, subsidies, and resource depletion, which ultimately harms profitability and innovation [2][3]. - The root cause of involution is an imbalance in competitive mechanisms, where companies sacrifice long-term benefits for short-term market share, leading to excessive competition and potential violations of antitrust laws [2][4]. Group 2: Risks of Price Coordination - As the industry consensus shifts towards anti-involution, some companies are beginning to form price alliances and production coordination under the guise of self-discipline, which poses risks of collusion and antitrust violations [3][4]. - The recent establishment of a platform company for silicon material acquisition in the photovoltaic industry illustrates the potential for coordinated actions that could violate antitrust laws by limiting production and sales [3][5]. Group 3: Legal and Compliance Considerations - The legal framework presents challenges for companies attempting to justify coordinated actions as necessary for economic downturns, as meeting the criteria for exemptions under antitrust laws is complex and difficult [5][6]. - Regulatory bodies have already noted the trend of companies using anti-involution as a cover for collusion, emphasizing that self-discipline should not lead to price-fixing or production limits [5][6]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies, especially leading firms, should be cautious of leading price alliances or production agreements under the pretext of market stability, as this could lead to accountability issues [1][6]. - Establishing an antitrust compliance system and internalizing compliance culture is essential for companies to navigate the competitive landscape effectively and avoid regulatory pitfalls [7][8].

政府层面，要持续规范地方政府经济促进行为。针对一些地方在招商引资中违规提供税费、土地、电价 等优惠，甚至举债搞补贴，要加快出台地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项清单，划清红线底线。坚决纠治通 过"抽屉协议"等方式变相违规招商。要持续规范涉企执法行为，完善行政裁量权基准制度。要着力整治 一些领域的招标投标乱象，清理不合理限制，防止出现地方保护。完善有利于统一大市场建设的统计、 财税、考核制度，推动树立和践行正确政绩观。 企业层面，要深入整治"内卷式"竞争。要加快完善重点行业产能调控机制，加强动态监测预警，既让落 后产能有序退出，也让新增优质产能平稳接续。要强化综合治理，加强行业自律、标准引领，综合运用 信用监管、价格执法、反垄断和反不正当竞争等监管手段，着力规范市场竞争秩序，形成优质优价、良 性竞争的市场生态，更好发挥市场机制优胜劣汰功能。 针对当前纵深推进全国统一大市场建设还存在哪些难点和堵点？综合整治"内卷式"竞争方面有哪些新手 段？ 总之，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，必将有效畅通我国经济循环，进一步激发超大规模市场优势潜 力，持续增强经济发展内生动力和活力。 中央财办有关负责同志表示，我国具有超大规模市场优势，但 ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand gap for the midstream sector improved, with the demand-investment growth rate difference rising to 7.6% in November from 6.4% in October[1] - Midstream demand growth was 8.9% in November, down from 9.3% in October, while midstream investment growth fell to 1.3%[3] - The demand-investment growth rate difference for midstream has been increasing since May 2024 and turned positive in March 2025[3] Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth rate difference is likely to remain positive, indicating potential price stabilization in the next two years[2] - The midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stop declining and start rising, with a notable month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, the first positive change since June 2024[4] - If the midstream PPI stabilizes, the year-on-year PPI is likely to continue rising, positively impacting midstream ROE (Return on Equity)[4] Group 3: Economic Data Overview - November's industrial value-added growth rate was 4.8%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.44%[20] - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, indicating weak consumer demand[22] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, showing ongoing challenges in the property market[27]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and an appropriately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth in China, while addressing structural issues and enhancing investment opportunities in various sectors [2][8][13]. Fiscal Policy - The Central Financial Office highlighted the need to maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels to ensure fiscal sustainability while optimizing expenditure structure to support major national strategies [2][13]. - There is a focus on enhancing local government financial autonomy and ensuring basic livelihood protections, with a call for more investment in infrastructure, which currently stands at only 20%-30% of that in developed countries [3][13]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the optimization of structural monetary policy tools and the need for coordination with fiscal policy to prevent financial market risks [2][12]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate adjustments to support economic growth [8][12]. Investment Opportunities - There is significant investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and industrial upgrades, with a call to leverage new policy financial tools for key projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][13]. - The government aims to stabilize investment and consumption through various measures, including optimizing the use of local government special bonds and enhancing the effectiveness of government investment [12][13]. "Anti-Involution" Measures - Multiple government departments are addressing "involution" in competition, with initiatives to regulate market order and enhance industry governance [3][12]. - The focus is on comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition and fostering new development momentum through improved capacity governance and infrastructure regulation [3][12].