Group 1 - The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized certain European countries for taking a "destructive stance" in the conflict between Iran and Israel, supporting Israel and the United States [1] - Araghchi expressed his protest during a phone call with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, accusing some European nations of bias in the Iran-Israel conflict, although he did not specify which countries [1] - EU representative Borrell urged Iran to quickly resume nuclear negotiations and restore cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, indicating that the EU is willing to facilitate this process [1]

原油近期波动较大，欧线宏观属性较强，近期博弈难度较高，部分船 IV 司宣涨运价，关注挺价落地情况。特朗普政府并不打算延长关税谈判 期，目前现货市场价格区间已定，有小幅降价试探市场，无更多利好 出现的情况下,盘面易跌难涨。综上述,我们认为,在地缘冲突下, 博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 7月1日主力合约2508收盘1904.9, 涨幅为7.80%, 成交量6.88万 手,持仓量4.05万手,较上日增手1248手。 SCFIS持续上行，但整体供需无较大变化,午后或因资金进出较大, 盘面快速拉涨。之后需对谈判结果、关税政策、中东局势以及现货运 价情况关注。 短期策略：基本面无明显转向情况下建议逢高试空，已建议2508合约 反弹至2000以上建议轻仓试空（200点以上的利润空间）,空单可考 虑止盈,风险偏好者已建议2510合约1300以下轻仓试多,设置好止损 止盈。 套利策略：国际局势动荡背景下，波动较大，暂时以观望为主。 长期策略: 各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续方向 跌涨停板：2506-2604合约调整为16%。 我司保证金:2506-2604合约调整为26%。 日内开仓限制: 2506-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].

金十数据7月2日讯，马里军方1日发表声明说，马里中部和西部多地当天遭到恐怖袭击，军方在反击中 打死80多名恐怖分子。马里军方电视台援引马里武装部队信息与公共关系局声明报道，当天凌晨，多个 武装恐怖团伙几乎同时对西部城镇卡伊、纽罗、桑达雷和戈吉等地的军营发动袭击。中部莫洛多等地也 遇袭。2015年5月，马里政府与北部地区部分武装组织签署和平与和解协议，同年6月，各方完成协议最 终签署。然而，这个西非国家的北部地区近年来仍冲突不断，中部、西部和南部的武装袭击也有增多趋 势。 （新华社） 马里多地遇袭 军方打死80多名恐怖分子 ...

Group 1 - The central theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum is "Adapting to Change: Macroeconomic Transformation and Policy Responses," focusing on the impact of U.S. trade conflicts on the global economy [1] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that uncertainty will continue to be a key characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to increased inflation volatility [3] - A report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) indicated that U.S. tariffs have pushed economic uncertainty to "crisis-levels," with risks to consumer prices, public finances, and the financial system [3] Group 2 - Despite similar geopolitical and trade challenges, central bank leaders have differing policy stances, with the ECB considering multiple rate cuts while the Fed maintains its current rate range [4] - The eurozone's inflation rate slightly increased to 2% in June, aligning with the ECB's inflation target, indicating the completion of the previous monetary policy intervention cycle [5] - Lagarde is positioned to strengthen the euro's status amid the dollar's decline, aiming to establish the euro as a stable currency during uncertain times [5] Group 3 - During a panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell noted that U.S. inflation is performing as expected, but tariff impacts may appear in future data, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [6] - Lagarde stated that the ECB is prepared to respond to complex economic situations but refrained from committing to future interest rate directions [6] - The Bank of England's Bailey highlighted the negative impact of fragmentation on global economic activity, advocating for a return to multilateral order [6]

媒体援引两名美国官员报道称，伊朗军方6月份在波斯湾的船只上装载了水雷，此举加剧了华盛顿的担 忧，即在以色列袭击伊朗各地后，德黑兰正准备封锁霍尔木兹海峡。 这些此前未报道的准备工作被美国情报部门发现，发生在以色列于6月13日对伊朗发动首次导弹袭击之 后的一段时间。 装载水雷（尚未在霍尔木兹海峡部署）表明，德黑兰可能真的想关闭世界上最繁忙的航道之一，此举将 使本已不断升级的冲突升级，并严重阻碍全球贸易。 ...

1. 美国防部暂停向乌克兰提供部分承诺的军火。 2. 美国总统特朗普：将密切关注俄罗斯的动向。 3. 克里姆林宫：我们无意拖延（与乌克兰谈判）。 4. 俄罗斯将暂时减少燃料出口，以稳定汇率水平。 5. 普京签署法令，允许"不友好国家"投资者在俄投资。 6. 俄法两国总统时隔近3年再通话，讨论中东地区局势。 7. 乌克兰方面表示，其远程无人机周二袭击了俄罗斯伊热夫斯克市一家生产防空系统的军事工厂。 金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（7月2日） ...

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 高盛提出的3700美元/盎司黄金目标价最早在2025年4月被多次提及，并在后续报告中持续强化这一预 测。根据最新市场动态和机构观点，该目标的实现路径及时间节点可综合如下： ⏰ 一、预测时间框架 核心时间节点：2025年底 高盛在4月11日、4月14日及6月的多份报告中明确表示，基于央行购金、经济衰退风险及美元信用动摇 三大驱动因素，维持2025年底金价3700美元/盎司的目标。若央行购金量超预期（如达100吨/月）或经 济衰退加剧，甚至可能提前触及3810-3880美元。 极端情景目标：2026年中期4000美元 高盛补充预测，在央行购金持续强劲、地缘冲突升级或金融制裁加码的背景下，2026年中期金价可能进 一步升至4000美元/盎司。 二、当前进展与支撑逻辑 现实基础 央行购金超预期：2025年2月全球央行单月购金106吨，远超历史均值。中国、印度等新兴市场持续推动 外汇储备多元化，中国允许保险公司配置黄金（潜在需求280吨）。 经济衰退概率：高盛评估美国未来12个月衰退概率达45%，若衰退发生，黄金ETF资金流入将激增，直 接推升金价。 技术面承压：6月金价从高点回调超 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管全球贸易紧张局势持续且经济走弱，但加拿大主要股市基准指数上半年表现却优于美国同行，这得益于创纪录的黄金涨势。 截至6月30日，加拿大标普/TSX综合指数年内上涨8.6%，高于同期标普500指数5.5%的涨幅。以美元计算，多伦多指数上涨15%，与其他黄金权重高的全球 指数涨幅相当。 "毫无疑问，这是由黄金推动的。" 蒙特利尔银行资产管理公司（BMO Asset Management Inc.）首席投资官萨迪克·阿达蒂亚（Sadiq Adatia）表示。 随着投资者涌入黄金和贵金属矿业股，以对冲美国总统特朗普关税威胁及中东地缘政治紧张与冲突带来的部分风险，这一热潮令加拿大股市指标受益。"你 需要能为投资组合'防弹'的资产，而黄金是最好的选择。"阿达蒂亚称。 加拿大基准股指表现优越 彭博情报策略师吉莉安·沃尔夫（Gillian Wolff）在6月11日的报告中写道，标普/TSX成分股的收入预测自4月以来"显著"下滑，该指数对"挣扎中的能源板 块"的大量敞口正不成比例地拖累整体预测。 不过，麦肯齐投资公司（Mackenzie Investments）股票首 ...

【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...