重庆啤酒 20250627 摘要 2025 年上半年啤酒行业销量持平，嘉士伯在中国传统优势区域表现稳 定，但受消费需求疲软影响，暂缓新区域扩张，侧重现有区域增长机会。 原材料及包材采购成本下降对毛利率有积极影响，但全年产销量是关键 变量，需关注整体消费情况及市场竞争表现。佛山工厂折旧增加导致固 定费用增加。 乐堡品牌持续增长成为第一大品牌，乌苏品牌销量面临挑战但积极进行 产品创新和结构升级，1,664 品牌受娱乐渠道未复苏影响承压。 乌苏啤酒全年销量约 80 万吨，疆内占比超 60%，疆外市场面临高端产 品价格压力，公司认为乌苏品牌将走向有序发展，维持基础体量。 现饮渠道收入占比下降至 44%以下，非现饮渠道占比超过 56%，即时 零售等新模式带来结构性变化，公司积极布局歪马送酒、酒小二等新型 渠道。 公司推出一升罐装精酿产品，并拓展非啤酒赛道，试水大理胖儿汽水、 天山鲜果庄园橙汁味汽水和电解质能量饮料，探索多元化发展机会。 公司 2025 年无新增产能扩张计划，资本开支预计大幅下降，股东回报 主要以现金分红为主，分红比例已达较高水平，未来或考虑产业链并购 整合或业务多元化。 佛山工厂折旧需要多少时间完全完成 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in international expansion and explore collaborative transformation paths in the context of global supply chain restructuring [1] Group 2 - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) established its first overseas office in Abu Dhabi, driven by the need for international travel during the pandemic and the UAE's strategic location for accessing key markets in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia [3] - The Middle East, particularly the Gulf region, is actively promoting economic diversification, moving away from oil dependency towards sectors like tourism and investment, exemplified by Dubai's iconic projects [3] - Abu Dhabi is replicating Dubai's success through projects like cultural and entertainment islands, with significant impacts on local real estate, as seen when Disney's announcement led to a doubling of property prices [3] - Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are focusing on renewable energy, high technology, AI, data infrastructure, and logistics, presenting investment opportunities for companies [3]

这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票 资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ ...

Core Insights - The Middle East is emerging as a significant market for Chinese companies, with a notable increase in the presence of Middle Eastern buyers at trade shows, surpassing European and American buyers for the first time [2] - Saudi Arabia is undergoing a transformation with substantial investments in infrastructure and housing, aiming to add over 1 million residential units by 2030, and the construction industry is projected to exceed $181.5 billion by 2028 [3][4] - The region is diversifying its economy away from oil dependency, focusing on sectors like renewable energy, digital economy, and high-end manufacturing, creating long-term investment opportunities [5][7] Industry Opportunities - Key sectors with growth potential in the Middle East include real estate, transportation infrastructure, and smart cities, driven by the region's rapid development and government initiatives [4] - The "Vision 2030" reform plan in Saudi Arabia is pivotal in promoting economic diversification and attracting foreign investment, particularly in emerging industries [5] - Chinese technology is being sought after in three main areas: life sciences, service robotics, and renewable energy, indicating a strong demand for innovation [7] Market Dynamics - The Middle East is characterized by a young population with strong purchasing power, presenting a lucrative consumer market [9] - Saudi Arabia's strategic location and its role as a hub for the Muslim population enhance its market potential, with significant trade opportunities expected from upcoming global events [9] - The UAE, particularly Abu Dhabi, is also positioning itself as an attractive business destination due to its stable business environment and favorable tax policies [10][13] Challenges and Considerations - Companies entering the Middle Eastern market should be aware of high localization requirements, cultural differences, and potential regulatory hurdles, which can increase operational costs [14][15] - Establishing a brand presence and understanding local market dynamics are crucial for success, with an emphasis on long-term investment rather than immediate profits [15][16] - The diversity among Middle Eastern countries necessitates a tailored approach to market entry, as economic conditions and opportunities vary significantly across the region [16][17]

Core Insights - South Korean convenience store sales have experienced a decline for two consecutive months in April and May, marking the first such occurrence in five years [1] - The total number of convenience store locations is also decreasing, prompting companies to innovate and differentiate their offerings to attract consumers [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Convenience stores in South Korea are facing operational challenges, leading to a slowdown in store expansion and a focus on unique store concepts to boost sales [1] - Specialty stores, such as those themed around instant noodles, have seen sales figures that are 10 times higher than typical convenience stores, with an average of 350 customers served daily [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The integration of convenience stores with various lifestyle elements such as fashion, sports, and music is creating diverse consumer experiences [1] - A convenience store near the Dongdaemun clothing market features photo printing services and collaborations with popular IPs to enhance brand visibility and product offerings [1] Group 3: Pricing Strategies - Since 2021, essential goods prices in South Korea have risen by 19.1%, prompting consumers to seek cost-saving options amid inflation [2] - Major convenience store chains are introducing low-priced products, with items priced between approximately 5 to 20 RMB, and products under 1000 KRW (about 5.3 RMB) accounting for nearly 30% of total sales [2] - Small-sized packaging products are gaining popularity among consumers, reflecting a shift in purchasing behavior [2]

Group 1: U.S. Global Military Presence - The U.S. has approximately 750 military facilities in over 80 countries, with a permanent troop presence of around 170,000, making it the most extensive military network globally [4] - The establishment of military bases has been a strategy to consolidate U.S. global hegemony, particularly in regions of strategic interest such as Europe and the Middle East [6][9] - Recent strategic adjustments include the withdrawal of troops from non-core interest areas, such as Niger and Chad, reflecting the challenges and costs associated with maintaining a vast military presence [9][10] Group 2: Economic and Financial Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has been a crucial pillar of American hegemony, serving as the world's primary reserve currency, allowing the U.S. to exert significant economic influence [10][12] - The U.S. federal debt reached $33 trillion by the end of 2023 and is projected to rise to $35 trillion in 2024, exceeding 122% of GDP, indicating a severe fiscal challenge [12][14] - Many countries are actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar, exploring alternative currencies for trade and investment, which could undermine the dollar's dominance [14] Group 3: Domestic Challenges - The U.S. faces significant internal issues, including political polarization and social unrest, which have been exacerbated by economic disparities and a lack of trust in government [17][18][20] - The widening wealth gap is evident, with the top 1% controlling 38.6% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% holds only 2.4% [20] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline, with its GDP share dropping from approximately 12% in 2008 to below 10% in 2024, indicating a trend of industrial hollowing out [20]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) is experiencing significant interest from investors, with its stock prices reaching historical highs, indicating strong market confidence and growth potential in the insurance sector [2]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on increasing allocations in long-duration bonds to mitigate risks associated with the asset-liability duration gap in the life insurance sector [5] - The company aims to enhance its equity investments by increasing the allocation of OCI stocks to approximately 30% of its secondary equity portfolio, while also emphasizing research on technology innovation enterprises for both short-term and long-term gains [5][7] - In fixed income, CPIC is looking to diversify into new asset classes such as REITs to ensure stable returns across market cycles [8]. Dividend Insurance - CPIC has developed a plan to enhance its dividend insurance offerings, with a significant push expected in the third quarter of the year [9] - The company has identified a critical threshold for traditional insurance sales pressure at a predetermined interest rate of 2%, prompting a necessary shift towards dividend insurance [11] - Currently, CPIC has five dividend insurance products available and is preparing an additional 14 products to meet market demands [12]. Commercial Health Insurance - The company is focusing on the integration of commercial health insurance with basic medical insurance, driven by national policy reforms aimed at creating a multi-tiered medical security system [15] - There is a recognition of the growing demand for commercial health insurance, as basic medical insurance may not fully meet the diverse needs of the population [16] - CPIC plans to enhance its product offerings in commercial health insurance, including new drugs and treatment methods, while promoting a more inclusive approach to high-end medical services [17].

汤继成认为，由于市场担忧美国政策的可信度及财政可持续性，美国"例外主义"正受到威胁，导致美国 国债和美元遭抛售。这一趋势预示着美国GDP增长将放缓，经济衰退风险升温，投资者开始寻求全球非 美元资产的投资机会。相关资金流向的转变已体现在欧洲股票，以及作为法定货币贬值对冲工具的黄金 的强劲表现中。 "去美元化"趋势对亚洲经济尤为有利，区内货币升值亦为央行提供宽松政策的空间。此外，对美国债务 可持续性的担忧升温，促使部分资金回流亚洲。亚洲经济体目前持有约8.6万亿美元的美国股票及固定 收益资产，若出现部分资金回流，将显著支持区内货币，并提升区内股票及固定收益市场表现。 【导读】安联投资：看好中国、印度及澳大利亚经济及股市，中国国债有望成为亚洲新一代"避风港"资 产 6月26日，安联投资全球固定收益副主管及亚洲固定收益首席投资总监曾铮、安联投资亚太区股票首席 投资总监薛永辉和安联投资亚太区高级经济师汤继成一同接受了记者的采访。 安联投资认为，下半年，美国关税政策、消费者信心、通胀及经济衰退风险等关键因素将主导经济格 局，而中东的军事行动亦可能进一步影响市场情绪。 安联投资预计，在当前充满不确定性的宏观经济环境中，亚洲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment is optimistic about the economic and stock market prospects of China, India, and Australia, viewing Chinese government bonds as a potential new "safe haven" asset in Asia [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Key factors such as U.S. tariff policies, consumer confidence, inflation, and recession risks will dominate the economic landscape in the second half of the year [2]. - Allianz Investment anticipates that the uncertain macroeconomic environment will make Asian fixed income and equity markets attractive for global investors due to favorable demographics, robust fundamentals, and accelerated regional integration [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - The trend of "de-dollarization" is beneficial for Asian economies, with a potential return of funds to Asia supporting local currencies and enhancing the performance of regional stocks and fixed income markets [4]. - Allianz Investment is particularly optimistic about Asian economies driven by domestic demand, with room for policy rate cuts and less exposure to specific political and economic concerns, especially in China, India, and Australia [4]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - Asian stocks have performed well year-to-date, with strong valuation attractiveness and growth potential in major markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea [8]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a commitment to boosting domestic demand and strengthening trade ties, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [8]. - China's service industry is emerging as a global leader, with Chinese intellectual properties in AI, gaming, film, and animation gaining international traction, showcasing the global competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [8].

Core Insights - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore win-win transformation paths [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The former president of the Bank of China, Li Lihui, analyzed the structural contradictions in the U.S. financial situation, highlighting a significant trade imbalance with annual trade deficits exceeding $500 billion and a decline in manufacturing's contribution to GDP from 28.1% to 9.96% by Q3 2024 [4] - Li pointed out the severe fiscal imbalance in the U.S., with national debt reaching $36 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [4] Group 2: U.S. Financial Strategy - To address its fiscal deficits, the U.S. relies on its international monetary hegemony, issuing dollars to purchase global goods, which is essential for maintaining its dominant position in the global financial system [4] - The recent introduction of a stablecoin initiative by the U.S. aims to tie stablecoins to the dollar, expanding the U.S. Treasury market and promoting dollarization in global financial markets, intensifying competition with China in the monetary and financial sectors [4] Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Development - Recommendations include improving the monetary policy framework and financial market structure to enhance policy transmission efficiency and increase direct financing [5] - Emphasis on financial technology and institutional innovation to reconstruct financial services and management processes, thereby improving the capacity to serve the real economy and enhancing regulatory efficiency [5] - Advocating for a multipolar international monetary system to reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency and enhance the resilience of the global financial system [5] Group 4: Cross-Border Payment and Currency Internationalization - The need for a diversified cross-border payment system is highlighted, with a focus on establishing digital payment infrastructure and multilateral payment systems to prevent the politicization of payment tools [6] - The push for the internationalization of the Renminbi is emphasized, with the currency already being the third-largest payment currency globally, aiming to expand its functions in international payments, financing, and reserves [6]