| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 阿根廷产区预计将迎来有利降雨，可能缓解部分旱情。巴西大豆收割进度显著快于 | | 豆粕 | 短期震荡 | 去年同期，新作供应正逐步涌入市场。市场看多情绪有所回落。昨日豆粕小幅收跌。 | | ★ | | 当前看多谨慎对待，关注阿根廷后续降雨情况，以及美豆种植面积、美生柴政策落 | | | | 地内容。 | | | | 首批澳籽进入压榨，沿海油厂菜粕库存打破之前零状态，此外，加籽的持续采购， | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 令国内菜籽及菜粕供应形势预期好转。消费淡季下，菜粕缺乏利多推动。昨日菜粕 | | ★ | | 窄幅整理。临近节日市场交投热情大幅下降。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注中 | | | | 加、美加贸易进展。 | | | | 最新数据显示马棕榈油 1 月超预期去库，但同时，马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec | | | | 公布最新本月前 10 日出口数据显示环比下降，挫伤市场看多人气。马棕榈油收跌。 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 国内方面，2 月买船较多，盘面产业套保压力环比增加。昨日棕榈油收跌。由于 ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：现货持稳，基差收敛 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,251 | 1.36% | 4,272 | 0.49% | | 2603 | 61,724 | 8,527 | 29,320 | -7,543 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,560 | 0.64% | 4,569 | 0.20% | PG | 2604 | 33,004 | 2,370 | 76,891 | 2,124 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 11 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260211 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 202 | 5, 200 | +2 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 210 | 5. 180 | +30 | | 期货市场 | | 成交量(手) | 223.862 | 185. 219 | +38. 643 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 307.016 | 300. 912 | +6. 104 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 146. 427 | 146. 447 | -20 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -19, 970 | -21,847 | +1.877 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 48 | 50 | -2 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -622 | -620 | -2 | | | 月差 | S ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-11） 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：临近春节，煤矿安检形式严峻，叠加部分煤矿进入假期，炼焦煤供应维持偏紧格局。下游 焦企采购积极性下降，同时中间投机需求也相应减少，市场交投氛围逐渐冷清，部分竞拍煤种随着市场 情绪转弱，成交价格较前期窄幅下调，但矿点考虑当前库存压力不大以及市场流通资源减少，挺价心理 偏强，目前市场主流煤矿报价暂稳；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1230，基差111；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存824万吨，港口库存273万吨，独立焦企库存1095万吨，总样本库存2192万吨，较上 周增加57万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 11 日星期三 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日 | SR605 | 合约收盘价 | 5278 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.32%，夜盘收 | 5281 | 元/吨；SR609 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 5288 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.27%，夜盘收 | 5290 | 元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1.巴西对外贸易秘书处（Secex）公布的出口数据显示，巴西 | 2 | 月第一周出口糖和糖 | | | | | | ...

2026 年 02 月 11 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260211 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 335 | 16. 245 | +90 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 560 | 16. 320 | +240 | | | | 成交量(手) | 177.554 | 197, 424 | -19.870 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 151,944 | 150, 270 | +1,674 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 112.570 | 112.570 | o | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 24. 491 | 25, 832 | -1. 3 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年02月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 7 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260211 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季备货结束，盘面升水小标仓单 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 2026 年 02 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various commodities having different outlooks, including oscillations, weakening, strengthening, and stable trends. For example, some commodities like rubber are expected to be oscillating and strengthening, while others like PVC are likely to experience weak oscillations [2][14][67]. - Geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran negotiations and the situation in the Middle East have an impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing uncertainties in prices and supply - demand dynamics [6][21]. - The demand and supply fundamentals of different commodities vary. For instance, in the PX - PTA - MEG industrial chain, the supply and demand patterns of each product are affected by factors like device maintenance, production rates, and downstream demand [12][13]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The monthly spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. The PX operating rate rises, and the PXN processing fee is continuously compressed. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [12]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450. The terminal demand has mixed performance, and the polyester operating rate is expected to pick up in March. Multiple devices have announced maintenance plans [12]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. Conduct reverse arbitrage operations on the basis and monthly spread. The supply has increased this week, but overseas supply is expected to decrease in March. The demand side has seen large - scale shutdowns of polyester, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure in February [13]. Rubber - It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The futures prices of rubber have increased, and the spot prices of various rubber varieties have also risen slightly. The inventory in the Qingdao area has increased, and the semi - steel tire enterprises are in different production stages [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of synthetic rubber have changed. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has also declined [17][18]. LLDPE - The spot trading has stagnated, and due to capital risk - aversion, it is in an oscillating market. The raw material oil price has stabilized after a decline, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the downstream demand has mixed performance. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [20][21]. PP - The C3 raw materials are relatively strong, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost side has oscillations, the supply side has no new production before the 2605 contract, and the demand side has limited support. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [23][24]. Caustic Soda - The cost has increased, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous logic of short - selling caustic soda profits may be challenged. The demand side has a weak pattern, and the supply side may see production cuts and load reduction after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [28]. Pulp - It is in an oscillating state. The trading in the pulp market is light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing activities have basically stopped. The market lacks driving factors, and attention should be paid to port inventory data and macro - market impacts [33][34]. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume has decreased, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market trading is light [40][41]. Methanol - It is in an oscillating state. The methanol spot price index has adjusted regionally. The port inventory has decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively high level. The MTO fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be limited in both upward and downward directions [46][47]. Urea - It is oscillating with support. The support comes from the improvement in spot trading driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level at around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [49][50]. Styrene - It is in a high - level oscillating state. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie production capacity. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival, and the pure benzene pattern is expected to improve after the second quarter [51][52]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, the enterprise devices are operating stably, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has basically completed pre - holiday stocking. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [53][54]. LPG - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [57]. Propylene - The spot price is stable, and the basis is converging. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of LPG and propylene have changed, and the industrial chain operating rates have also fluctuated [58]. PVC - It is in a weakly oscillating state. The PVC spot market is stable, but the supply - demand is weak, and the export atmosphere has weakened. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to be under pressure before the holiday [65][66]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term volatility is decreasing. The low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the night session, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is still at a low level [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) have declined, and the spot market freight rate is stable before the holiday. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance in March - April, and the 2610 contract has a reference pressure level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [70][78]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating state. The short - fiber futures are oscillating strongly, but the downstream is on holiday, and the trading volume is small. The bottle - chip factory has raised the quotation, but the market trading atmosphere is average [81][82]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. The prices of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable. The large - scale paper mills are producing stably, some small and medium - sized paper mills have shut down, and the market is on holiday [84][85]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strongly oscillating state. The futures prices of pure benzene have increased slightly, and the spot prices have decreased slightly. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the trading volume in Shandong has been reported [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral oscillating market, weakening monthly spread [2] - PTA: Range - bound oscillating market [2] - MEG: Range - bound operation [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the festival, it's a range - bound oscillating market with support below, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises, PXN processing fee is continuously compressed, and try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [11] - PTA: The downward space may be limited, monthly spread is bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450. Pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support for the unilateral position [11] - MEG: Inventory continues to rise, supply pressure is still high. Conduct basis and monthly spread reverse arbitrage operations. The monthly spread and basis trends remain weak [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC were 7308, 5230, 3733, 6626 and 476.1 respectively. Their price changes were 18, 38, - 6, 20 and 11.9, and the price change rates were 0.25%, 0.73%, - 0.16%, 0.30% and 2.56% respectively [4] - For the monthly spreads, the closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4 and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 8, 28, - 108, - 74 and - 2.7, with price changes of - 8, 20, 2, 6 and - 2.8 respectively [4] 3.2 Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were 909 dollars/ton, 5145 yuan/ton, 3625 yuan/ton, 612.38 dollars/ton and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively. Their price changes were 8.67 dollars/ton, 37 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 14.5 dollars/ton and - 0.07 dollars/barrel respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05 dollars/ton, 378.86 yuan/ton, 71.28 yuan/ton, 294.17 yuan/ton and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively. Their price changes were 5.96 dollars/ton, - 49.15 yuan/ton, 29.19 yuan/ton, 70.13 yuan/ton and 0 dollars/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - PX: Asian xylene prices were evaluated as rising in the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB South Korea quotes of Asian paraxylene on February 10 were 909 dollars/ton and 888 dollars/ton respectively, with a single - day increase of 8.67 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha physical spread shrank to 296.625 dollars/ton on that day, with an intraday decrease of 5.83 dollars/ton [5][7] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was expected to stop on the evening of February 10, and the specific restart time was undetermined [8] - MEG: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the statistical period was extended to February 23. From February 9 to February 23, the expected arrival quantities in Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo and Shanghai were about 97,000 tons, 63,000 tons, 21,000 tons and 0 tons respectively, and the total planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 181,000 tons [8] - Polyester: A 460,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangyin gradually reduced production to 350 tons per day from February 10 for half a month. A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Fujian stopped for maintenance from February 10, and another 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory reduced production by 30% from February 10 [8] 3.4 Market Sales - On February 10, most direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories had no sales. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 31% [9] - On February 10, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be weak. As of around 4:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around 20% [9] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian device operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA demand side has no obvious change and remains at 77.6% (+1%) [11] - PTA: The terminal demand is that domestic textile sales ended in January, foreign trade has orders, and the polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the pressure after the festival is less than in previous years [11] - MEG: The supply side has an increasing operating rate this week, reaching 76.22% (+1.85%). Overseas device supply will decrease significantly in March. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival [12]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：2 月份的美国农业部报告显示，美国 2025/26 年度大豆产量、单产、播种及收割面积均与 1 月 预估持平。期末库存保持在 3.5 亿蒲式耳，与 1 月报告一致，处于六年高位。美豆出口预估仍为 15.75 亿 蒲式耳，未因特朗普总统关于中国可能增加采购 800 万吨的言论而上调。尽管美豆压榨需求强劲，但出口 进度滞后，叠加巴西大豆产量上调，供应压力增加对美豆价格构成压制。国内随着春节临近，油厂陆续停 机，现货交投转淡。尽管进口大豆成本为豆粕价格提供支撑，但国内港口大豆与豆粕库存高企，且节后可 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...