Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Long Term [7] Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - sentiment, with prices oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the future demand situation needs attention [1]. - The iron ore market sentiment is positive, with prices rising slightly. However, the supply - demand imbalance is intensifying, and prices may face great pressure in the future [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices moving sideways. The coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the coke cost support is weakening [4]. - The thermal coal market has increasing wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The supply is tightening in the short term, but the long - term supply remains loose [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3089 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume was good, with the national building materials trading volume at 13110 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, while the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports increased slightly. The total transaction volume of major ports was 1.121 million tons, a 22.38% increase. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 6.8% to 3.278 billion tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 24.2% to 2.817 billion tons. The inventory at 45 ports slightly increased to 15.102 billion tons [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with the total inventory rising continuously. Downstream steel mills have started to cut production, and there is a possibility of further cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, but the bearish sentiment was increasing. Some coal mines in the coking coal production area resumed production, but the supply recovery was slow, and some coal mines started the second - round price cut [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coking coal supply increased slightly, and the short - term market was weak. The coke cost support weakened, and the market sentiment turned negative [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal, sideways for coke. No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and some coal mines' prices increased slightly. The port inventory was rising, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The imported coal market was strong, with obvious price advantages [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways in the short term, with the supply remaining loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The production of drawing materials is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2010 to 2053, the South China spot price increased from 2005 to 2028, and the Northwest discounted price increased from 2568 to 2588. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in most prices, with the largest increase in the import profit, which rose by 64 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6760, and the East China LL price remained at 7000 on some days and then decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 12017 to 11721. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in the主力期货 price by 23 and a decrease in the warehouse receipt by 114 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 5900 on some days. The East China PP price decreased from 6340 to 6285, and the North China PP price decreased from 6315 to 6255. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the export profit showed some fluctuations. The daily change on November 24 showed a decrease in most prices and a 15 - point increase in the主力期货 price [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2450 (with a 50 - point increase on November 24), and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 792 to 777. The East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC increased from 4520 to 4530. The basis of the high - end delivery product increased from - 90 to - 70 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both short - term and medium - term, the view on both coking coal and coke is to adopt an oscillatory approach. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trends are expected to be oscillatory and weak [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Production Data**: As of the week ending November 21, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8 thousand tons. The combined daily average output of coke from downstream coking plants and steel mills was 108.89 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons [5]. - **Demand Outlook**: Although the profits of independent coking plants have improved significantly this week, the port market has already over - anticipated price cuts. There are doubts about the extent and sustainability of the improvement in downstream demand, so the positive factors on the demand side of coking coal are still insufficient [5]. - **Supply Outlook**: The easing of anti - involution expectations and the accelerated clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the support on the supply side of coking coal. However, considering that coal mine production may decline after reaching the annual production target at the end of the year and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [5]. Coke (J) - **Market Price**: The spot market of raw material coking coal is weak, and downstream steel mills are in the red. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port has dropped to 1470 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton lower than the flat - price [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest data shows that both the supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, and the fundamentals have not changed much. As of the week ending November 21, the combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 108.89 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 236.28 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 thousand tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%, indicating that steel mills are in a large - scale loss situation [6]. - **Market Trend**: The strong supply - side expectations of coking coal have cooled down, dragging down the cost support of coke. The main futures contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillatory trend. Continued attention should be paid to the supply situation of coking coal [6].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5370 元/吨，日涨幅 0.32%。夜盘收于 5377 元/吨；SR605 合约收盘价 5319 元/吨，日涨幅 0.32%。夜盘收于 5319 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.85 美分/磅，日涨幅 0.54%。 2.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5374 元/吨，下跌 5 元/吨；广西新糖报价 5590~5650 元/吨，个别集团下调 60 元/吨；云南制糖集团陈糖报价 5350~5400 元/吨，新糖报 价 5300~5500 元/吨，下调 70 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5890 元/吨， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 白糖 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月25日 | | | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | WWE | 削值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3220 | 20 | 151 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | 121 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3290 | 20 | 221 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3118 | 3098 | 20 | 122 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3167 | 3142 | ડેરે | 73 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3089 | 3057 | 32 | 151 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3270 | 20 | -2 | 7G/ 中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3200 | 20 | -15 | | | 热卷现货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货涨后回落，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出远期货源。 本周下周在01贴水45~53商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4665附近。12月下在01-40附近成交。1月在01-28~34附近有成交。本 周仓单在01-42附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-49。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期伴随PTA供应减量较预期增加、聚酯负荷坚挺且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求， PTA累库预期扭转，不排除阶段 性去库，PTA现货基差表现强势。不过绝对 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-11-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic futures contracts**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3021, the highest price was 3027, the lowest price was 3007, the closing price was 3012, down 1 or -0.03%, with a trading volume of 677,574 and an open interest of 1,511,379, a decrease of 37,971. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 2988, down 5 or -0.17%. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2803, down 7 or -0.25% [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data was much higher than expected, reaching a record high for a single - month [6]. Core View - The external market has exhausted its short - term bullish factors but is supported by low inventory. It may oscillate at a high level. Domestic soybean meal has a relatively solid support below but faces inventory pressure. To break through the upper resistance, it needs additional bullish factors from the external market [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the near term, the volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, and the 2026 export volume would reach 111 million tons [10].

乙二醇港口累库压力凸显，关注煤制装置减产可能 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续两日稳定于3822元/吨， 但近期走势显示价格从3938元/吨持续回落至当前水平，市场呈现弱势震 荡。华东现货价格同步持平于3855元/吨，期现基差维持33元/吨的窄幅波 动，反映现货市场交投情绪谨慎。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量单日增加25557手至355406手，创近期新 高，而成交量大幅攀升至26.17万手，较前一日增长45.9%，显示资金入场 活跃但多空分歧加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率维持67.63%低位，其中煤制开工率连续两周稳 定于54.29%，油制开工率持平于76.23%。尽管乙烯法制工艺利润持续压缩 （如DOW化学法利润周降43元/吨至-1134元/吨），但油制装置仍维持高负 荷运行，煤制利润周内腰斩至112元/吨或压制后续开工弹性。 需求端 ：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷持平于63.43%，终端 需求未现季节性改善信号。下游刚性补库为主，缺乏投机性需求支撑。 库存端 ：华东主港库存周增10.7%至73.2万吨，其中张家港库存单周激增 27.9%至27.5万吨，创 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-24 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：腌腊旺季考验，期价低位震荡 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 数据来源：Mysteel iFinD 卓创资讯 长江期货饲料养殖中心 u 期现端：截至11月21日，鸡蛋主产区均价报2.85元/斤，较上周五跌0.12元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报2.91元/斤，较上周五跌0.13元/斤；鸡蛋主力2601收 于3184元/500千克，较上周五跌51元/500千克；主力合约基差-604元/500千克，较上周五走弱79元/500千克。周度蛋价窄幅偏弱，市场缺乏节日提振， 终端需求较为平淡，下游渠道采购偏谨慎，消化库存为主，蛋价窄幅偏弱调整，不过蛋价跌至偏低水平会刺激下游补库需求，对蛋价形成支撑，预计 未来一周现货小幅反弹。盘面主力转为01合约，偏弱震荡挤压盘面升水，当前基差处于历史同期偏低水平。 u 供应端：11月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年7月补栏，环同比均下滑，但开产 ...