记者丨崔文静,实习生张长荣 编辑丨黄剑 8月13日，A股火力全开，沪指强势突破"924行情"高点3674.4点，最高冲上3688点，最终收于3683.46 点，创下近4年新高（2021年12月以来）。 | A股市场核心指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 创业板50 | 创业板指 | 创成长 | | 4.14% | 3.62% | 3.28% | | 科创创业50 3.23% | 科创200 2.51% | 深创100 2.34% | | 深证50 | 万得双创 | 创价值 | | 2.10% | 1.99% | 1.97% | | 深证100 1.88% | 中证A100 0.72% | FiF180 0.49% | | 上证收益 | 上证 | 富时中国A50 | | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.40% | 更引人注目的是，这已经是沪指气势如虹的"八连阳"。 另一边，创业板指在科技股狂欢中飙升3.62%，深成指也大涨近2%！ 全市场单日成交额达到2.18万亿元，两融余额更是突破2万亿元后直奔2.03万亿元新高！ 牛市真的回来了吗？这波能冲多高？如何把握新一轮投资机遇？ 根据2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly four-year high, indicating potential early signs of a bull market [1][4][5]. Market Performance - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, marking an increase of 8 consecutive days of gains, with a peak of 3688.63 points during the day [1][5]. - The total market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, a 14% increase from the previous trading day, indicating robust market activity [5][6]. - The ChiNext Index surged by 3.62%, driven by strong performance in technology stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by nearly 2% [2][5]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The increase in new stock accounts, with nearly 2 million new accounts opened in July, reflects a growing enthusiasm among retail investors [6]. - The margin trading balance has reached a new high of 20,345.33 billion yuan, indicating improved market sentiment and risk appetite among investors [9][10]. Conditions for a Bull Market - Industry experts suggest that for a comprehensive bull market to materialize, three key conditions must be met: broad improvement in corporate earnings, optimized funding structure, and alignment of domestic policies with global economic cycles [3][7][11]. - Current market trends show a structural rise driven by capital rather than broad-based fundamental improvements, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [12][13]. Investment Opportunities - Four key investment areas are highlighted: technology growth sectors, consumer recovery and new consumption, "anti-involution" themes, and dividend-paying stocks [14][15]. - The technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, robotics, and biomedicine, is expected to show high growth potential due to ongoing industrial trends [15][16]. - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 is currently at 2.8%, which is higher than the 10-year government bond yield, suggesting an attractive return for investors [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a nearly four-year high, is attributed to increased trading volume and a favorable market environment, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend in the A-share market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683 points, marking a 0.48% increase and surpassing the previous year's high, with trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan [2]. - Growth and small-cap stocks have shown strong performance, with the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 indices rising by 1.04% and 1.45% respectively, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.62% [2]. - Sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals have outperformed, while banks, coal, and food and beverage sectors lagged [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Strength - The strong performance of the A-share market is driven by several factors: 1. Improved market liquidity and attractiveness of the stock market due to increased household savings and a shift in investor sentiment [3]. 2. A projected end to four consecutive years of declining earnings growth, with an upward revision of the 2025 A-share earnings forecast to 3.5%, indicating a positive shift in corporate profitability [3]. 3. A decrease in external uncertainties, highlighted by a recent U.S.-China joint statement and lower-than-expected U.S. CPI, which enhances the outlook for Chinese assets [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current market sentiment suggests that the ongoing rally may resemble an "enhanced version of 2013," with expectations of better overall performance compared to that year [4]. - The recommendation is to focus on sectors with high growth potential and verified performance, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and non-ferrous metals, as well as financial sectors like brokerage and insurance that benefit from increased retail investment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The dividend sector showed strength in early trading, with various indices reflecting positive performance, indicating a growing interest in high-dividend stocks [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Dividend Value Index rose by 0.7% [1]. - The CSI Dividend Index increased by 0.6% [1]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index gained 0.5% [1]. - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index also saw a rise of 0.5% [1]. Group 2: ETF Activity - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) experienced a net subscription of 26.4 million units in half a day [1]. - This ETF has seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, reaching a record size of 4.23 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Composition of Indices - The CSI Dividend Index consists of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for over 55% [3]. - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index is made up of 50 stocks with good liquidity and consistent dividends, with banking, transportation, and construction sectors making up nearly 70% [3]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index includes 50 stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with financial, industrial, and energy sectors comprising nearly 70% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after valuation adjustments, the dividend sector now offers strong attractiveness due to its high dividend yield, especially in a declining interest rate environment [1] - The investment strategy should focus more on defensiveness, certainty, and cost-effectiveness amid decreasing market risk appetite and increasing structural differentiation [1] - The Red Chip ETF (510720) tracks the National Dividend Index (000151), which selects 30 securities with high and stable dividend records controlled by state institutions, emphasizing sectors like finance, energy, and industry [1] Group 2 - The National Dividend Index uses a dividend yield-weighted method to reflect the market performance of state-owned enterprises with strong profitability and good financial conditions [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the GTJA SSE State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiated Link A (021701) and GTJA SSE State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiated Link C (021702) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various dividend-focused ETFs, highlighting their composition, performance, and sector allocations, indicating a trend towards stable, high-dividend yielding stocks in the A-share and Hong Kong markets [2]. Group 1: Dividend ETFs Overview - The E Fund Dividend ETF tracks the China Securities Dividend Index, composed of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend A-share companies [2]. - The E Fund Low Volatility Dividend ETF tracks the China Securities Low Volatility Dividend Index, consisting of 50 stocks with good liquidity, continuous dividends, and low volatility, indicating a focus on stable dividend-paying stocks [2]. - The Hang Seng Low Volatility Dividend ETF tracks the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, made up of 50 stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect that have good liquidity and moderate dividend payout ratios [2]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The E Fund Dividend ETF has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 times, with a valuation percentile of 72.2% since its inception in 2013, and a recent decline of -0.4% [2]. - The E Fund Low Volatility Dividend ETF has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 8.41 times, with a valuation percentile of 77.2% since its inception in 2013, and a recent decline of -0.6% [2]. - The Hang Seng Low Volatility Dividend ETF has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 times, with a valuation percentile of 86.0% since its inception in 2017, and a recent decline of -0.3% [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocations - In the E Fund Dividend ETF, the banking, coal, and transportation sectors account for over 55% of the index, with a significant weight in banking stocks [2]. - In the E Fund Low Volatility Dividend ETF, the banking, transportation, and construction sectors make up nearly 70% of the index [2]. - In the Hang Seng Low Volatility Dividend ETF, the financial, industrial, and energy sectors represent nearly 70% of the index [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.34% at 3647.55 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4,100 stocks in the market experienced gains [1]. Fund Performance - The Shenwan Hongyuan Industry Select Fund, managed by renowned fund manager Jia Chengdong, was established on June 3, 2023. As of August 8, 2023, the fund's Class A shares reported a loss of 8.23%, ranking 4672 out of 4673 in its category. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index saw cumulative increases of 8.59% and 6.89%, respectively [1][5]. - The fund raised a total of 1.219 billion yuan, with 10,477 effective subscriptions, making it the fourth actively managed equity fund launched this year with a fundraising scale exceeding 1 billion yuan [5][6]. Manager Background - Jia Chengdong, a veteran in the fund management industry, joined Shenwan Hongyuan Fund after leaving his previous position at China Merchants Fund. He has a history of managing significant fund sizes, reaching nearly 18 billion yuan at his peak in 2020. His recent fund, Shenwan Hongyuan New Power, also reported a loss of 7.43% year-to-date, ranking 4491 out of 4521 in its category [7][9]. Investment Strategy - The Shenwan Hongyuan New Power Fund primarily focuses on dividend sectors while diversifying into new consumption and gold. Significant adjustments were made in the second quarter, with new investments in companies like China Mobile and Yangtze Power, which have shown a downward trend since July [8].

Core Viewpoint - The dividend sector has become increasingly attractive due to valuation adjustments, with a strong dividend yield amid declining market risk appetite and increasing structural differentiation [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The decline in market risk preference necessitates a more defensive, certain, and cost-effective investment strategy [1] - A significant meeting in July emphasized the promotion of a unified national market and governance of disorderly competition, indicating that "anti-involution" may become a long-term policy focus, providing a stable policy environment for the dividend sector [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.3%, reflecting weak demand, while the high dividend characteristics of dividend assets highlight their defensive value in a weak economic cycle [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the State-owned Dividend Index (000151), which selects 30 state-owned enterprises with high dividend characteristics from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering multiple industries with strong profitability and stable dividend records [1] - The index is designed to favor mature industry enterprises with ample cash flow and stable operations, reflecting the value investment characteristics of high-dividend state-owned listed companies [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Cathay SZSE State-owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiator Link A (021701) and Link C (021702) [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3600 points and a year-to-date increase of 8.45% as of August 8, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [1][2] - The current market rally is driven by both liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a notable increase in investor participation and financing balances since late June [2][3] - Analysts suggest a dual strategy of investing in both technology growth and high-dividend assets, emphasizing the importance of long-term patience to avoid frequent trading due to short-term profit chasing [1][4] Group 2 - The market is believed to have substantial upside potential, with the current valuation levels being lower compared to previous instances when the index surpassed 3600 points, indicating a higher concentration of emerging industries, particularly hard technology [3][4] - Investment strategies for the second half of the year should focus on stability first, followed by aggressive positioning as uncertainties diminish, with key areas of interest including industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI-related sectors [3][4] - The shift in investment strategy from short-term trading to a more patient, long-term holding approach is recommended, with an emphasis on diversifying investments across multiple promising sectors and maintaining a balanced portfolio [5][6]

Core Insights - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index increased by 2.7% this week, while the CSI Dividend Value Index rose by 2.6%, and both the CSI Dividend Index and CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index saw a 2.4% increase [1][2]. Index Performance - The CSI Dividend Index and CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index both recorded a weekly increase of 2.4% [2]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index had the highest weekly gain at 2.7% [2]. - The CSI Dividend Value Index increased by 2.6% this week [2]. Fund Inflows - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) experienced a net inflow of 120 million yuan this week, bringing its total size to 4.1 billion yuan, a record high [1]. Dividend Yields and Valuation Ratios - The dividend yields for the indices are as follows: CSI Dividend Index at 4.4%, CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index at 4.1%, Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index at 5.8%, and CSI Dividend Value Index at 4.3% [2]. - The rolling price-to-earnings ratios are: CSI Dividend Index at 8.3x, CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index at 8.4x, Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index at 7.3x, and CSI Dividend Value Index at 7.8x [2]. Sector Composition - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index consists of 50 stocks with high liquidity and stable dividends, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for over 60% of the index [3]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index also includes 50 stocks, with financial, real estate, and energy sectors making up over 60% [3]. - The CSI Dividend Value Index is composed of 50 stocks with high dividend yields and value characteristics, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors comprising about 80% [3].