Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida predicts that the yield curve for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will steepen [1] Group 1 - The steepening of the yield curve is expected to reflect a stronger economic outlook and potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [1] - Clarida's insights suggest that market participants should prepare for changes in bond market dynamics as economic conditions evolve [1] - The anticipated shift in the yield curve may impact investment strategies and asset allocation decisions across various sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve official Clarida expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve to steepen [1] Group 1 - Clarida's prediction indicates a potential shift in interest rates, which could impact borrowing costs and investment strategies [1] - A steepening yield curve often reflects expectations of economic growth and inflation, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, which has led to a slight decrease in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield as traders react to the updated economic outlook [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - In the June dot plot, Federal Reserve officials reduced their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the end of 2027 [1] - The Fed now projects economic growth rates of 1.4% for this year and 1.6% for next year, down from previous estimates of 1.7% and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the dot plot, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a slight decline, indicating traders' responses to the Fed's economic growth slowdown predictions [1]

如果说发展稳定币是美国化债的一个阳谋，那么《GENIUS法案》的发布能否直接推动美债规模降低呢？显然不会，因为 《GENIUS法案》的主要内容是规范稳定币的发行，比如全额抵押和禁止向用户发放利息，是稳定币的"供给侧改革"，而对于稳 定币的投资、跨境交易和通胀对冲三类需求并没有直接的刺激作用，《GENIUS法案》不能直接助力化解美债危机。 加密货币行业迎来里程碑时刻。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月17日，美国参议院通过了一项立法，旨在为被称为"稳定币"的加密货币建立监管框架。这项名为 《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（以下简称《GENIUS法案》）的议案获得两党支持，以68票对30票的结果在参议院获 得通过，标志着该院首次批准主要的加密货币立法。 白宫官员曾表示，《GENIUS法案》"消除了长期以来阻碍数字资产领域创新与竞争力的不确定监管环境"，这项立法将加强美元 在加密货币领域相较于其他货币形式的主导地位。但许多民主党人强烈反对，警告该措施缺乏足够严格的监管规定和监督机 制，无法防止滥用行为。 在近日德鼎创新（Draper Dragon）主办的上海RWA（现实世界资产通证化）产业论坛上，CDD JAP（香 ...

由于关税前景、油价走势及其对通胀的影响加剧市场不确定性，美联储官员可能无法按此前预期在今年 实施两次25个基点的降息。 AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易策略主管格雷格·法拉内洛（Greg Faranello）称，周四凌晨市场将聚 焦"点阵图及其与美联储通胀预测的关联"。 他在电话中表示，若美联储预测2025年仅有一次降息，这将被视为"更鹰派"，可能推高2年期国债收益 率等短期利率，"但对部分投资者而言或成买入机会。美债收益率已横盘两个月，市场正处于'未知'状 态。"他还指出，美联储今年甚至可能完全不降息。 在美联储本周发布政策声明前，市场高度关注2025年基准利率预测中值。自3月以来，美联储的点阵图 显示年底前将有两次降息，但联邦基金期货交易员目前认为美联储兑现此预期的概率仅37.7%，金融市 场或面临预期落空的冲击。 法拉内洛认为，交易员可能忽略2026-2027年利率预测，因通胀前景不确定性过高。此外，由于鲍威尔 任期明年到期，届时特朗普将物色继任者，市场对其发布会的反应或有所削弱。"利率总体趋势向下， 但速度存疑。" （文章来源：金十数据） 特朗普4月2日宣布对多数进口商品征收10%基 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司深度报告 发布时间：2025-06-18 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 28.19 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）19.00 | / 16.64 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）536 | / 469 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 31.30 / 15.61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 47.3% | | 市盈率 | 26.35 | | 第一大股东 | 李金阳 | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 赤峰黄金(600988) 国际化布局的黄金矿石提供商，业绩有望快速释放 l 投资要点 赤峰黄金发展历程经历了从多元化战略到"以金为主"的战略转 型。公司于 2005 年成立，于 2012 年完成重组上市。2013 年公司收购 五龙矿业扩充黄金资源储备。2018 年收购老挝万象 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of short-term debt may be necessary to sustain the current bull market, as historical patterns indicate that high net issuance of medium to long-term debt correlates with stock market stagnation or decline [1][2][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The net issuance of medium to long-term debt is approaching 100% of the fiscal deficit, with long-term debt net issuance accounting for 80% [2][5]. - The combination of high net issuance and slowing growth in total debt issuance is creating a challenging environment for the stock market, as the liquidity squeeze from medium to long-term debt issuance is undermining upward momentum [2][5]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that when net issuance of medium to long-term debt exceeds 85% of the fiscal deficit and total issuance growth declines, the S&P 500's performance over the next 1-12 months is significantly below average [5][7]. Group 3: Short-Term Debt as a Solution - In 2023, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen successfully revitalized the market by significantly increasing short-term debt issuance, which helped to draw down over $2 trillion in idle funds from the Federal Reserve's reverse repo (RRP) tool [10]. - Simon White suggests that to prevent a market collapse, the Treasury must reduce the net issuance of long-term debt and restart total issuance growth, implying a substantial increase in short-term debt issuance [11]. Group 4: Repo Market Dynamics - The relationship between short-term debt and the stock market is closely tied to the explosive growth of the repo market, which has become increasingly liquid and resembles a "near-money" asset [12][13]. - The growth in government debt issuance, particularly as repo collateral, has a positive correlation with stock market performance, but this relationship is more pronounced in total issuance rather than net issuance [13][14]. Group 5: Potential Challenges - Restarting short-term debt issuance may not be without consequences, as it could raise interest costs and inflation risks, complicating the Treasury's fiscal management [15]. - The current interest expenditure on U.S. debt has surpassed $1 trillion annually, and further shortening the average debt maturity could exacerbate inflationary pressures [15][17].

不过，美国5月零售销售月率超预期降低，美国5月工业产出月率等也超预期的疲软，对金价产生一定利好支撑，以及伊朗和以色列的紧张局势仍在产生一 定的避险需求，内塔尼亚胡认为特朗普会在未来几天参与打击伊朗，美国药品关税即将到来，而令金价最终震荡微幅收涨。 张尧浠：美联储决议及鲍威尔来袭、金价仍有望走强 上交易日周二(6月17日)：国际黄金震荡十字收涨，仍处于中轨上方，且日内短周期有触底看反弹的信号，基本面也未有持续且较大的利空压力，故此， 本周后市则以震荡或看反弹为主的预期对待。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3386.23美元/盎司，日内整体处于连续的震荡下移的趋势发展，于亚盘初先行录得日内高点3403.10美元，于美盘初录得日内 低点3366.08美元，最后触底回升，多头有所转强，最终收于3388.46美元，日振幅37.02美元，收涨2.23美元，涨幅0.066%。 影响上，美国参议院通过稳定币法案，美元指数反弹收涨，特朗普称暂时不会采取行动除掉伊朗最高领袖，以及技术的回落压力，金价震荡走低； 展望今日周三(6月18日)：国际黄金开盘先行延续隔夜尾盘回升之力表现走强，但由于受到短线阻力压制，而早盘反弹动力有限，那么在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating a downward trend in bond yields, particularly influenced by the upcoming retail sales data release [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5.94 basis points, closing at 4.3869%, and was in a downward trajectory throughout the day [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.3770% just before the release of U.S. retail sales data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.88 basis points, settling at 3.9476%, with a trading range of 3.97749% to 3.9035% during the day [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The release of retail sales data caused a sharp drop in the yields, which then rebounded slightly, coinciding with a brief uptick in U.S. stock markets [1]

作 者丨刘英（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员） 编 辑丨洪晓文 作为稳定锚的美债近日频频成为全球市场的焦点，不仅是由于美债收益率一度飙升，以及美 债长短期收益率倒挂，更是由于美国财政部公布的最新国债回购操作高达100亿美元。 此次创 纪录的单次国债回购操作，让市场许多投资者疑惑：是否因为美债无人问津，才迫使财政部 不得不亲自下场买回来，而美债又存在哪些结构性矛盾？ 市场对美债可持续性的担忧是有历史数据和实践支撑的。一年多来，美国10年期和3个月期国 债的收益率出现长期倒挂，尽管近日转正，但在近几十年里，美债收益率在每一次倒挂结束 之后都会迎来美国经济衰退甚至金融危机，本世纪以来包括2000年互联网泡沫时期、2006年 —2007年美国次贷危机时期、2020年全球新冠疫情之前等等。 从美债的买家分析来看，美债的海外买家在持续减少，而其国内也存在买家减少的问题。 从 时间轴来看，作为全球美债最大持有方的日本和中国的美债持有额都在下降。另据国际货币 基金组织（IMF）统计，外国官方持有美债比例已从2014年的45%降至2023年的28%。抛售潮 背后不仅是国际货币体系的重构的问题，更是由于美国信誉和美元信用的衰落 ...