Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of cross-border ETFs has led to significant price increases across various funds, driven by positive market sentiment following favorable inflation data and a temporary trade truce between the US and China [1][5][10]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Southern Fund's Saudi ETF, Invesco's Nasdaq Tech ETF, and Invesco's S&P Consumer ETF saw increases of 5.57%, 3.64%, and 3.4% respectively, with latest premium/discount rates at 8.99%, 3.72%, and 29.09% [1][3]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Harvest Fund increased by 3.19% and 2.99% respectively, reflecting a broader rise in oil prices [1][3]. - The Nasdaq index rose for the second consecutive day, with Franklin Templeton's Nasdaq ETF and Cathay Fund's Nasdaq ETF increasing by 2.7% and 2.63% respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Market Context - Global stock markets continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices gaining 0.72% and 1.61% respectively, attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data and improved investor sentiment following the US-China trade truce [5][6]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses for the year, now up 0.1%, after a significant drop earlier due to escalating trade tensions [5][6]. - The recent signing of a $142 billion arms deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, along with Nvidia's commitment to supply advanced AI chips, has further bolstered market optimism [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [10]. - Despite the favorable inflation data, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 4.481%, indicating a complex market reaction [10]. - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming month may see fluctuations in the S&P 500 index between 5500 and 5800 points, supported by corporate buybacks and trade agreements [10].

⑨美债收益率普遍下跌，2年期美债收益率跌1.23个基点报3.996%，3年期美债收益率跌2.24个基点报 3.984%，5年期美债收益率跌1.75个基点报4.094%，10年期美债收益率跌0.59个基点报4.465%，30年期 美债收益率跌0.1个基点报4.905%； ⑩欧债收益率普涨，英国10年期国债收益率涨2.7个基点报4.667%，法国10年期国债收益率涨2.7个基点 报3.351%，德国10年期国债收益率涨3.1个基点报2.677%，意大利10年期国债收益率涨2.2个基点报 3.696%，西班牙10年期国债收益率涨2.5个基点报3.295%。 ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.82%报3254.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨1.43% 报33.09美元/盎司； ⑥国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约收涨2.71%，报63.63美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨2.43%，报 66.54美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.82%报100.9827，离岸人民币对美元上涨27个基点报7.1968； ⑧伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期锌涨1.93%报2720.50美元/吨，LME期铅涨1.40%报 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.37 basis points, reaching 4.4946% at the end of trading on Tuesday, May 13 [1] - The U.S. CPI inflation data caused the yield to drop to a daily low of 4.4197% before fluctuating upwards [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 0.87 basis points, closing at 4.0190%, after hitting a daily low of 3.9519% and subsequently recovering to 4.0253% [1]

美国国债回吐涨幅，美债收益率达到日内高点。 ...

操作评级 贵金属 女女女 普金属日报 2025年05月13日 刘冬博 高级分析师 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场反应强 烈,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价下跌已接近10%，关注3200美元处支撑有效性。上周美联 储会议鲍威尔室申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,今晚关注美国CPI数据。 市场对于黄金下跌的解释: 1. 贸易硝烟散去削弱避险价值 黄金作为"乱世英雄"的特性正在经受考验。上个月当特朗普政府突然宣布全面加征关税时,金价曾单周暴涨 8%触及3500美元历史高位。如今随着贸易战火药味淡化,BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash指出:"市场对 白宫反复无常政策的过度反应,反而成为金价回调的伏笔。" 2. 美元王者归来压制金价 美元指数同日暴涨1.5%突破101关口,创下近两个月新高至101.97。这形成了对黄金的双重打击:一方面美 元计价使黄金对海外买家更昂贵, ...

Group 1 - US Treasury bonds rose ahead of the inflation data release, reversing the sharp decline following the US-China trade consensus, which reduced the likelihood of a global economic recession and diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The two-year Treasury yield fell three basis points to 3.98%, outperforming European counterparts, while the ten-year yield traded at 4.45%, significantly higher than the month's low of 4.12% [2] - Economists predict that the US April CPI year-on-year growth will remain at 2.4%, with core CPI growth expected to hold steady at 2.8% [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December rather than July, with the probability of a recession reduced to 35% from 45% [2] - Deutsche Bank economists estimate that the final tax plan could keep the US deficit as a percentage of GDP around 6.5% in the coming years [3] - Market participants are uncertain about the feasibility of extending the 2017 tax cuts without exacerbating the US deficit, with discussions set to begin in the House of Representatives [3]

发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：市场静待贸易靴子 落地》 - 2025.05.12 宏观观点 大方向依然是走弱 l 核心观点 在 5 月 12 日的中美经贸联合声明中，美国将取消和暂停对我国 部分关税，总体将对我国关税税率降至 30%左右。但我们认为此举对 于美国经济的提振有限，回到"解放日"之前的水平和状态可能性较 低。 首先是声明公布后进一步走高的政策不确定性指数。在"解放日" 后，关税大幅抬高，但真正直接作用于美国经济和实体预期的是政策 的不确定性。各项调查等软数据均显示了不确定性对居民和企业部门 消费、投资决策的负面影响。5 月 12 日，尽管中美关系出现了阶段性 缓和，但政策不确定性指数再创新高，这一影响渠道依然在起作用。 其次是特朗普可能出现的"朝令夕改"。这在上一次贸易战中已 经体现的较为充分，且 24%的对等关税是暂停 90 天， ...

周一因中美达成削减关税协议，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧缓解，美元指数一度逼近 102，最终收涨 1.37%至 101.80。美债收益率双双走高，利 率市场削减美联储年内降息定价，提振美元需求。不过美元短线虽偏多，但面临关键阻力，且美国 CPI 数据将至，若通胀低于预期，多头或将 了结。当前美联储降息预期调降，鹰派空间有限，通胀火热还可能加剧滞胀担忧，利空美元。 黄金昨日跳空低开并延续跌势，最低触及3207后企稳反弹，美盘最高涨至3248后震荡整理，午夜弱势整理至 3220 后修复，最终收盘于 3234。 今日早间行情先小幅拉升，随后强势下跌至 3216，亚盘又强势上涨至 3260 后承压整理。目前行情处于修复阶段，晚间 CPI 数据备受关注。若 欧盘行情未延续上涨而是回落，多头或于 3270终结。技术面上方阻力在 3268 - 3274，下方支撑在 3244 - 3237。操作上徐老师建议回调做多为 主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议回调3244-3237分批多，各止损8美金，止盈看15-20美金。 操作策略2：建议反弹3268-3274分批空，各止损8美金，止盈看20-40美金。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent market volatility easing, investors remain concerned about the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries, particularly regarding the direction of U.S. fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Investor Concerns - Investors are anxious about the potential for rising bond term premiums, which could lead to a steeper yield curve and increased worries about Treasury auction outcomes [1] - There is a possibility of credit rating downgrades for U.S. Treasuries, adding to investor unease [1] Group 2: Yield Curve Expectations - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is expected to steepen further, indicating an increase in the difference between short-term and long-term bond yields [1] - The U.S. Treasury may implement measures to lower financing costs, suggesting a greater reliance on Treasury supply in the coming years [1] Group 3: Treasury Auction and Supply - There is a potential for a reduction in the scale of long-term Treasury auctions, reflecting the changing dynamics in the market [1]