Core Viewpoint - The potential for a depreciation of the US dollar is increasing due to misalignment in monetary policy and obstacles in the dollar's external circulation, suggesting a focus on foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equity investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Dollar Depreciation - Since 1970, there have been seven significant periods of dollar depreciation, each impacting asset performance differently, with commodities generally benefiting the most [2]. - Key periods include: 1. 1971-1973: Breakdown of the Bretton Woods system led to a dollar credit crisis, benefiting commodities and Asian equities [2]. 2. 1976-1980: Missteps by the Federal Reserve resulted in high inflation, with commodities performing best amid concerns of stagflation [2]. 3. 1985-1987: The Plaza Accord initiated a deliberate dollar depreciation, with industrial metals outperforming precious metals and Japanese equities leading globally [2]. 4. 1989-1992: US economic recession and German reunification led to a weaker dollar, with subdued performance in commodities and equities [2]. 5. 1994-1995: Unexpected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve suppressed economic expectations, benefiting commodities as non-US economies rebounded [2]. 6. 2002-2008: The US faced "twin deficits," leading to a commodities bull market and strong performance in non-US equities [2]. 7. 2017-2018: Recovery in the Eurozone and emerging markets resulted in positive returns for both commodities and equities [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Dollar Weakness - Factors contributing to dollar weakness include relative economic advantages, misaligned monetary policies, and credit risks associated with the dollar [3]. - Economic advantages typically arise during global economic recoveries, prompting capital to flow from the US to faster-growing regions [3]. - Misalignment in monetary policy has historically led to dollar weakness, though such periods are rare [3]. - Credit risks emerge when global investors grow concerned about the dollar's stability, leading to a sell-off and subsequent depreciation [3]. Group 3: Asset Performance During Dollar Weakness - Commodities consistently outperform during periods of dollar weakness, driven by demand for physical assets and reduced investment costs for developed countries [4]. - Non-US equity markets tend to benefit more than US equities, with emerging markets showing greater elasticity in capital inflows [4]. - Historical performance rankings during dollar depreciation periods show that the Hang Seng Index outperformed, followed by the Nikkei 225 and European markets [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The likelihood of a trend towards dollar depreciation is increasing, with a focus on foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equity investments [5]. - Key investment areas include: 1. Foreign exchange: The Eurozone, Japan, and Canada are expected to see their currencies strengthen due to high net positions in US assets [5]. 2. Commodities: Continued value in gold and potential for other physical assets to gain traction [5]. 3. Equities: Focus on economies with leverage capacity, such as Germany and India, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares due to improved liquidity [5].

Core Viewpoint - DBS has raised the target price for China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) to HKD 3.8, increasing earnings forecasts due to lower fuel prices and a weaker USD, despite ongoing pressure on passenger yield and cargo operations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Performance - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in operating expenses due to falling aircraft fuel prices and a weaker US dollar [1] - Earnings forecasts for the next two years have been increased by 40% and 65% respectively [1] Market Conditions - Passenger yield continues to be under pressure due to consumer price sensitivity and macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - There are adverse factors affecting the cargo segment as well [1] Analyst Rating - DBS maintains a "Hold" rating for China Southern Airlines while adjusting the H-share target price from HKD 3.2 to HKD 3.8 [1]

Group 1 - European pension funds are increasing their foreign exchange hedging, leading to significant dollar sell-offs, particularly in the Netherlands and Denmark, where unhedged dollar exposure has decreased from 23% to 20% of total assets [1] - Danish pension funds have reduced their dollar exposure by $37 billion since the beginning of the year, with a record hedging ratio of 74.2% in April [2] - The trend of hedging against dollar assets is gaining global attention, with many companies in Switzerland, Japan, and Australia still at historically low levels of currency protection [2] Group 2 - The dollar has weakened for five consecutive months, with a pessimistic indicator reaching extreme levels, suggesting a potential calm period for the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision [3][6] - Despite the dollar's decline, traders are reducing their bearish bets on the dollar, indicating a shift in sentiment as recent economic data shows resilience in the U.S. economy [7][8] - The consensus on Wall Street remains that the dollar will continue to weaken, driven by tariff anxieties and softening economic data, with predictions pointing to further declines through 2025 [11]

美元走弱可能帮助比特币再次上涨 金十数据6月12日讯，LMAX Group策略师Joel Kruger在一份报告中说，美元走弱，加上投资者冒险意愿 的增强，可能有助于再次提振比特币。由于贸易不确定性和对中东紧张局势的担忧，比特币下跌 1.7%。美元指数跌至97.789的三年低点。"美元的疲软通常有利于加密货币，随着投资者重新转向风险 更高的资产，比特币和以太坊的潜在反弹将得到支持。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Weak inflation data in the U.S. has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a further decline in the U.S. dollar and a significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) [1] Group 1 - The TWD experienced a rapid rise similar to the surge seen in early May, closing at its strongest level in three years [1] - The TWD appreciated nearly 1% against the U.S. dollar, reaching a peak of 29.625, the highest intraday level since May 5 [1] - The closing appreciation was reduced to 0.88%, with the final rate reported at 29.660 [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 0.51% to $3392.6 per ounce as of the report [1] - Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a slight increase of 0.09% in the afternoon, with a trading volume exceeding 17 million yuan, and it closely tracks Shanghai Gold (SHAU.SGE) [2] - The management fee for Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products, and it supports T+0 trading [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index fell by 0.07% to 98.74, reaching a near 32-day low, with a cumulative decline of nearly 9% this year [2] - East China Futures noted that the weakening dollar and weak US data supported a slight increase in precious metals, with expectations of short-term strength due to ongoing geopolitical risks and US economic weakness [2] - Debon Securities maintains a positive outlook on gold, citing ongoing uncertainties in global trade and the weakening global position of the US dollar as factors that could provide lasting support for gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if expectations for the appreciation of the Renminbi increase, investors may prefer Chinese government bonds, with trade negotiation outcomes being a key influencing factor [1][12] - The U.S. fiscal situation remains concerning, with a projected fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 6.28% in 2024, and estimates suggesting it could rise to 7% by 2026 [4][5] - Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating aligns with previous actions by other agencies, indicating market unease regarding rising government debt levels [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in implementing preemptive rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations, with a forecasted inflation rate of 3.5% in Q4, significantly above the current 2.4% [7][8] - Tariff policies are expected to have dual effects, potentially raising prices and suppressing economic growth, with inflation likely to manifest before economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar is expected to weaken against major currencies, with predictions of the euro reaching 1.20 against the dollar by year-end, as investors seek diversification away from U.S. assets [10][11] Group 3 - The Chinese bond market is gradually attracting more foreign investors, and while current yields are low, an increase in Renminbi appreciation expectations could enhance the appeal of Chinese government bonds [12]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities predicts that emerging market assets are likely to achieve "several percentage points" of returns this year due to the expected decline of the US dollar [1] Group 1 - The firm believes it can easily maintain double-digit returns this year, attributing this to the US dollar being the most significant driving factor [1] - David Hauner, the global emerging markets fixed income strategy head, anticipates that long-term US interest rates will remain stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities anticipates that emerging market assets will yield several percentage points of return this year due to expectations of a weaker US dollar [1] Group 1: Emerging Market Outlook - The firm maintains a forecast of double-digit returns for emerging markets throughout the year, attributing this to the US dollar as a key driving factor [1] - Optimism is expressed towards Eastern European currencies and equities [1] Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - Brazil is highlighted as the preferred investment destination in the fixed income market due to its high interest rates and the potential for rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Dollar Weakness and Market Trends - The US dollar is nearing its lowest level in two years, with major Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan also predicting further dollar weakness [1] - Factors contributing to this outlook include potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, slowing economic growth, and ongoing uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in international gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion and economic concerns, with potential long-term benefits for gold and gold-related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - International gold prices have resumed an upward trend, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce and London spot gold rising by 2.5% to exceed $3,370 per ounce [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion due to increased tariffs on steel and aluminum by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from the EU, alongside escalating geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including the U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI and the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, fell below expectations, indicating negative impacts from tariff conflicts on the economy [1]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is noted as a contributing factor to the rise in gold prices [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Gold stocks are highlighted as having a higher investment value compared to gold assets, with strong first-quarter earnings reports from gold mining companies exceeding market expectations [2]. - The ongoing upward movement in gold prices and the expansion of gold mining companies are expected to sustain high growth in corporate earnings [2]. - Current valuations of major gold stocks are below historical averages, suggesting potential for systemic valuation increases as gold prices rise [2]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on gold stocks and assets, seizing the historical opportunity as the gold industry transitions from "cyclical beta" to "growth alpha" [2].