Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the United States, despite its massive debt of $30 trillion, remains a dominant global power due to the influence of the US dollar, which allows it to benefit from global wealth accumulation and consumption [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of the Dollar - The US dollar's historical link to gold established its position as the world's leading currency, as it was once directly convertible to gold, making it a trusted medium for international trade [3][5]. - The US capitalized on global conflicts, particularly during the World Wars, to accumulate gold reserves by selling military supplies to warring nations [8]. - In 1971, the US decoupled the dollar from gold, allowing for unlimited dollar printing, which was later supported by a deal with Saudi Arabia to conduct oil transactions exclusively in dollars [13][15]. Group 2: Economic Mechanisms and Impacts - The US's strategy involves printing large amounts of money, which can lead to inflation and devaluation of the dollar, impacting other countries holding dollar reserves [11][20]. - The influx of "hot money" into emerging markets can create temporary economic booms, but when the US capital withdraws, it often leads to economic collapse in those countries [22][24]. - The article describes this dynamic as a form of "financial colonialism," where the economic sovereignty of target countries is compromised by US monetary policy [26]. Group 3: Global Response and "De-dollarization" - Many countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar, with 42 nations researching digital currencies to reduce reliance on the US dollar [28][30]. - Initiatives like the establishment of trade mechanisms using local currencies, such as the euro for trade with Iran, signify a shift away from dollar dominance [32]. - Russia and China are leading efforts in "de-dollarization," with increasing use of their currencies in bilateral trade, particularly in energy transactions [35][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the dollar's dominance remains strong, the article suggests that ongoing efforts towards "de-dollarization" could gradually weaken its position, especially as countries seek to mitigate the impacts of US monetary policy [38][40]. - The potential decline of the dollar's status could lead to significant changes in global economic dynamics, reducing the ability of the US to leverage its currency for global influence [42][44].

刷新闻是不是越看越懵？俄乌还在打，巴以没停火，朝韩关系又紧张，伊朗和以色列也时不时互扔导 弹。但说真的，这些顶多算"大戏前的群演互殴"，真正的主角就俩，那就是中国和美国。 大家肯定特关心经济啥时候能回暖，工资啥时候能涨，手里的钱啥时候能更值钱。想知道答案？得先把 这场"对手戏"的套路看明白，不然真等机会来了都抓不住。 相信很多人都还记得这两个关键日子，2022年2月24日俄乌冲突正式爆发，不到一个月，2022年3月美联 储就宣布加息。这时间点凑得也太巧了，根本不是巧合，就是美国精心写的"收割剧本"。 美国先是在欧洲家门口"放鞭炮"，故意拱火让俄乌打起来。欧洲本来安安稳稳的，一打仗产业和资本立 马慌了，就像遇到火灾的游客，赶紧找安全地方躲。放眼全球，最安全的就中国和美国，这些资本自然 想往这俩地方跑。 美国哪能容忍资本跑到中国来？赶紧亮出"加息"这张牌，相当于在全球挂出"存钱利息翻倍"的招牌。简 单说就是告诉全世界：把钱放我这，能赚更多，快来！这一招直接导致全球陷入"钱荒"。 美国这套路可不是第一次用，堪称"金融收割机"，从上世纪80年代开始，拉丁美洲、日本、东南亚、苏 联，挨个被它"薅羊毛"，每次都摧枯拉朽。 ...

更离谱的是，美国农民首当其冲。中国反制关税一上来，美国大豆出口直接被砍掉一大块，2019年美国不得不拿出280亿美元补贴农民。这钱哪来的？税 收。说白了还是美国老百姓埋单。 企业也没好到哪去。根据美小企业联合会的调研，到2025年，美国中小企业因为关税，每家每年平均多花12万美元成本。你想象一下，一个本来利润就不厚 的中小厂商，多背这么个负担，怎么活？ 再说科技公司。2020年开始美国限制高端芯片卖中国，表面上看是要卡中国脖子。结果中国市场占了英伟达和高通接近一半收入，一刀切下去，他们的财报 直接掉头。高通2023年在中国的收入比上一年少了将近20%，股价也跟着跌。研发经费一紧，反过来影响他们自己在全球的竞争力。 你有没有发现，美国这几年跟中国硬刚，最后受伤的好像都是自己人？ 我这两天翻了下数据，2018年特朗普发动贸易战的时候，对中国商品加税超过3000亿美元。他当时说要减少逆差，结果到2024年，美国对华逆差依然有3500 亿美元。美商务部的数据摆在那，这笔账怎么算都不像是赢。 所以特朗普2025年再上台，看财政部报告的时候才皱眉。因为他终于发现，这不是在维护超级大国的地位，而是在消耗超级大国的底子。 美 ...

Core Insights - The urgency of the U.S. in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations is highlighted by significant Chinese sales of U.S. Treasury bonds, with China selling approximately $53.7 billion (about 382 billion RMB) in the first seven months of the year [1][2][3] - In July alone, China sold $25.7 billion (approximately 182.9 billion RMB) in U.S. Treasuries, bringing its total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2019 [1][3] Group 1 - China's large-scale reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings has reached a new low not seen since 2009, indicating a significant shift in international capital flows [2][3] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China could exacerbate market fears and potentially trigger a wave of selling, impacting U.S. fiscal stability and the dominance of the dollar [5][6] - The U.S. government is facing budgetary challenges, with a potential government shutdown looming if bipartisan agreement on the budget is not reached by the October 1 deadline [5][6] Group 2 - The reliance of the U.S. on borrowing is acknowledged, with measures such as tariffs and budget cuts being proposed to address fiscal issues, but these may not be sufficient to resolve underlying economic problems [7] - A call for comprehensive domestic reform and a cooperative global approach is suggested as necessary for the U.S. to stabilize its economic situation [7]

由于美债的安全性和高收益，许多国家的央行同样持有大量美债，而美债是一种具有流动性的不记名债券，可以在国际市场流动，因此抛售美债并不是一件 新鲜事。但凡事都有例外，如果美债的主要持有者大量抛售，势必会加剧国际市场的恐慌，担心成为"接盘侠"，因此一不小心就会出现"抛售潮"，当美债失 去了国际信任，美国的主要收入来源也就断了，美元霸权也有崩盘的可能。 中国是除了日本和英国之外，美国的第三大海外债主，中国抛售美债很容易让其他国家有所担忧，这也是美国不愿看到的局面。另一方面，自美总统特朗普 上台后，多次施压美联储降息，甚至扬言要让美联储主席鲍威尔下岗，导致美联储的独立性倍受质疑，这将使得美元信用受损，中国减持美债，不排除是是 对美元资产的安全性有所怀疑的可能。由此引发的后果是，美国将不得不提高美债的收益率，来打开美债的销路，付出的成本将大幅增加，美国财政会更加 脆弱。 美国两党争斗之际，中国放出大招，抛售257亿美元的美债，特朗普预感不妙，对民主党发出警告，美政府要关门了？ 在今年上半年的中美关税战中，中方先后拿出了关税反制、稀土出口管制和削减美国大豆进口等措施，让美总统特朗普措手不及。除了这些明面上的手段， 中方还有 ...

这是真正影响全球80亿人生计的大事件！ 美联储时隔9个月终于宣布降息，直降25个基点。此刻，全球资本巨头、华尔街大佬以及无数人的心跳，都因这一数字彻底改变。全球经济、你我手中的存 款、股票、未来的物价、油价，甚至未来世纪的趋势，都因美联储此次降息发生巨变。 这次美联储降息与以往大不相同——美国正因降息爆发近50年来最大规模的"天王山之战"，特朗普对阵鲍威尔，美联储对阵最高领袖。 美联储的独立性正面临有史以来最强大的挑战——特朗普。延续50年霸权的美元货币体系，可能在特朗普的"励精图治"下被推向深渊。 这场降息究竟是好是坏？它会带来什么影响？房子能买了吗？股票会涨吗？手中纸币的购买力会大幅贬值吗？这场降息为何成为美国的"天王山之战"？ 要回答这些问题，需从最基础的问题入手：被传得神乎其神的美联储究竟是什么？ 美联储全称美国联邦储备系统，通俗来说就是美国版的央行，负责发行和管理美元、维护美国金融稳定。它是全球金融体系中为数不多带有半私有化特征的 巨型机构。 不少博主称"美联储被神秘大佬操控，是世界主宰"，但这种说法很片面——经过上百年演化，美联储早已摆脱资本大佬的直接控制。 看美联储的架构便知：其银行实体由12家 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve signifies a strategic shift in the global financial landscape, indicating cracks in the dollar hegemony system [1][5] - The traditional "tide" mechanism of dollar hegemony, which involves aggressive interest rate hikes followed by cuts to acquire undervalued assets, has been disrupted for the first time in decades [3] - The U.S. faced challenges in executing its capital extraction strategy aimed at China, as the latter successfully stabilized its economy through dual circulation strategies and made advancements in key sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates without achieving its intended capital extraction reflects a strategic failure, as high interest rates have burdened the U.S. economy and diminished its competitive edge [5] - The acceleration of the global de-dollarization process poses a fundamental threat to the dollar's status as a reserve currency, necessitating a reconsideration of high interest rates [5] - The unconventional rate cut may lead to significant impacts on the U.S. economy, potentially inflating stock market bubbles and increasing the risk of a severe market correction if new technologies do not quickly achieve commercial viability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to unexpected market reactions, including a significant drop in the dollar index to its lowest level since 1995, indicating underlying economic vulnerabilities that could impact the global financial system [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experienced declines, with market participants expressing disappointment over the smaller-than-expected rate cut [4]. - The simultaneous drop in the dollar index, which reached a 30-year low, has created a paradox where a move intended to stimulate the economy has instead led to market turmoil [4][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Signals and Gold - The Fed's indication of potential further rate cuts in 2025 has prompted a reassessment of long-term dollar interest rates, leading to a surge in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [5]. - This shift reflects a growing lack of confidence in the dollar and an increasing preference for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [5]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The dissenting vote within the Fed regarding the rate cut highlights a deeper trust crisis concerning the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [8]. - Market sentiment is increasingly concerned about the stability of the dollar, with traders expressing fears that the real issue is a loss of confidence rather than the rate cut itself [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have weakened the "petrodollar" system, as some countries explore alternative currencies for oil transactions, challenging the dollar's dominance [9]. - The interplay between U.S. domestic policies and the Fed's monetary strategies is creating tensions that could further erode confidence in the dollar [9]. Group 5: Chinese Assets and Market Dynamics - The Fed's rate cut and the weakening dollar may temporarily enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially leading to increased foreign investment in A-shares and bonds [10]. - However, this influx of capital may not reflect long-term confidence in the Chinese economy but rather a search for yield and safety amid global uncertainties [10][14]. Group 6: Future Implications for the Dollar - The dollar's long-term supremacy is under threat from both structural adjustments in the global monetary system and a gradual erosion of trust [13]. - The sustainability of foreign capital inflows into U.S. assets, particularly Treasuries, is uncertain, with potential risks of rapid capital withdrawal if market conditions shift [14][15]. Group 7: Market Sentiment and Future Risks - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision indicates a growing non-rational sentiment, as the decision has not alleviated fears about the broader economic landscape [15]. - The next critical points of concern will revolve around U.S. fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in reserve currency allocations by major economies [17].

文 | 听云霭 编辑 | 听云霭 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨两点，对于全球金融界来说，是一个不寻常的时刻。 美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔准时出现在全球记者的镜头前，他说出了那句让唐纳德・特朗普心心念念的话：下调联邦基准利率25 个基点。 资料参考：2025-09-18证券时报——凌晨！美联储宣布：降息25个基点！鲍威尔重磅发声！ 1.美联储降息 降息这件事，我们之前也见过不少次，但这一次却完全不一样。 今年以来，在美国的经济领域，一直有一个巨大的争论，那就是美联储到底要不要降息。 从 9 月 18 日凌晨开始，全球金融行业的投资大佬们几乎都不约而同地发出了相同的感叹：美联储所谓的尊严，所谓神圣不可侵犯的独立性，在这一刻正式 幻灭。 以鲍威尔为代表的传统老派技术型官员，他们有着理工男的风格，始终坚持不降息。 他们觉得美国现在通胀还没散去，物价还很贵，降息根本没有理由，谁降息谁就是美国老百姓的罪人。 而另一派呢，就是以特朗普为代表的白宫西翼政客群体。 前几天，特朗普骂得都上头了，他说在自己的领导之下，美国经济这么好，随便来个人都能干得比鲍威尔出色。 这俩加起来都 150 多岁的人了，为啥骂得这么不留情面呢？ ...

美联储加息点燃导火索，全球资金开始回流美国，这直接冲击新兴市场货币。2015年12月16日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布加息25个基点，这是近十年来的第 一次。 表面上看是为了稳住美国经济，但实际也让美元更吸引人。结果呢，国际游资像闻到腥味的鲨鱼一样，蜂拥转向亚洲，尤其是中国的人民币。 那时候，中国经济正面临出口下滑和资本外流的问题，人民币对美元汇率本来就有点晃荡，从6.2左右开始往下探。香港作为离岸人民币交易中心，每天处 理上千亿美元的交易量，成为这场博弈的主战场。 国际投机者们觉得机会来了，他们借入人民币抛售，赌汇率继续跌，好从中捞一把。索罗斯这样的老牌投机家公开表态，说中国经济有硬着陆风险，资金会 加速外逃。这话一出，市场更乱了，离岸人民币汇率一度跌到6.6以上。 美联储的加息不光是经济政策，还牵扯到美元霸权的维护，美国通过这种方式想拉回全球资本，削弱竞争对手的货币影响力。中国外汇储备当时超过3万亿 美元，本来是用来稳汇率的，现在成了保卫战的弹药库。 索罗斯的风格就是杠杆大，赌政策漏洞，但他忽略了中国外汇储备的规模和决心。以前他赢多输少，这次瞄准人民币，背景是美联储加息拉走资金，中国资 本外流加剧。但他没算到 ...