请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 华见早安之声 市场概述 要闻 中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰出席新闻发布会表示，中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展。 中国4月CPI同比降0.1%、与上月持平，PPI同比降幅扩大至2.7%。 日本首相石破茂重申"零关税"，要求美国全面取消汽车关税。 印巴双方宣布停火后不久，印控克什米尔地区再次传出爆炸声。印度指巴基斯坦违反停火协议，巴方否认。 乌克兰准备无条件停火至少30天，普京提议5月15日恢复俄乌谈判。泽连斯基：乌克兰已做好与俄罗斯举行会谈的准备。 野村：日本寿险美元资产占比过高，一旦减持或对冲，将对美元产生重大压力。 投资者关注贸易会谈进展、消化美联储政策及第一季度财报数据。 美股周五开盘上涨，三大指数大多小幅收跌，全周均下跌。特斯拉一度涨超7.8%，台积电盘初涨约3%后收窄至不足1%，Lyft因扭亏为盈且预订量增长，股 价飙升28%。中概指数全周累计跌1.4%。 10年期美债收益率周五波动不大，全周上涨约7个基点。美元指数一度跌超0.5%后企稳于100上方。黄金终结两连跌，美油盘中涨近2.6%。 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing negotiations between the US and China in Geneva are being referred to as a "21st Century Bretton Woods moment," indicating a significant financial confrontation with potentially greater risks than trade wars [1] - The US Treasury Secretary brings a historical high of $8.2 trillion in maturing debt by 2025, with interest payments alone being substantial enough to fund 20 aircraft carriers [3] - Global buyers are fleeing US debt, with China reducing its holdings for eight consecutive months and Japan selling off $300 billion, while Saudi Arabia is quietly settling oil transactions in RMB [3] Group 2 - The US is pressuring China to increase its holdings of $200 billion in long-term US debt, with proposals including concessions on high-tech export restrictions and tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [5] - China's negotiation team is prepared, presenting a "de-dollarization roadmap" signed by 28 countries, which poses a significant challenge to US dollar dominance [8] - The volume of oil transactions settled in RMB between China and Saudi Arabia has surged by 380%, and a new payment system among BRICS nations has integrated 47 countries [8] Group 3 - The negotiations are critical due to two irreversible trends: the potential collapse of US dollar credit and the rise of the RMB as a global reserve currency [10] - If US Treasury yields exceed 5.8%, it could trigger a forced sell-off by global pension funds amounting to $76 trillion, indicating a severe financial risk [12] - The 20-year US Treasury ETF (TLT) has seen a 45% decline over three years, worse than the 2008 financial crisis, while the IMF reports that the RMB's share in global reserves has doubled to over 7% in three years [12]

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词美元燃烧） 据追风交易台消息，5月8日，汇丰银行高级经济顾问Stephen King发布了一份报告，从历史角度出发，审视了储备货币的兴衰，深入探讨了美元作为世界储备 货币的地位，研究并分析了特朗普政府对美元储备地位的态度及其可能带来的影响。 报告显示， 历史表明，"摧毁一种储备货币比创造它更容易"，储备货币体系的崩溃往往伴随着巨大的经济动荡和资产价格的剧烈波动，而非平稳过渡到新体 系。 而King指出，特朗普政府的某些成员正对美元当前储备货币地位给美国经济带来的负担表示担忧，并试图通过各种措施来削弱美元的国际地位。 报告警告称，这种做法可能引发市场不稳定—— 储备货币的成功部分依赖于发行国愿意为了更大的整体经济利益而牺牲部分经济主权。一旦发行国开始认为这 种经济利益被成本抵消，就可能采取政策来抑制国际使用。 从1930年代金本位制的崩溃到1970年代布雷顿森林体系的瓦解， 这些事件都伴随着巨大的经济和金融动荡，资产价格和汇率也随之剧烈波动。 King认为，美国政府试图纠正美元"高估"的的举措可能引发金融动荡，破坏国际资本市场，并引发对美联储持续承诺美元互换额度、美联储可能的"财政主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Stephen King from HSBC highlights the historical perspective on the rise and fall of reserve currencies, particularly focusing on the potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under the Trump administration's policies [1][22]. Historical Perspective on Reserve Currency Decline - The report reviews the history of reserve currencies, indicating that the issuing country often sacrifices some economic sovereignty for international cooperation [3][22]. - Historical evidence suggests that negative policies designed to limit a currency's international use are more effective than positive interventions aimed at encouraging it [3]. - The collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s caused significant economic turmoil, with the Federal Reserve setting low interest rates that led to a stock market bubble [3][9]. Bretton Woods System and Dollar Resurgence - Post-World War II, the dollar emerged as the primary reserve currency, established during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the dollar was pegged to gold [6][9]. - The Bretton Woods system revealed weaknesses, as some countries benefited from fixed exchange rates while others faced competitiveness issues and financing crises [6]. - The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, marked by Nixon's policies, led to significant financial instability and volatility in asset prices [9][12]. Trump Administration's Impact on Dollar's Reserve Status - The Trump administration's approach to the dollar's reserve status may pose greater risks than its tariff policies [22]. - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. government views the dollar as "overvalued" and may implement measures to redefine its role as a reserve currency [25]. - Potential measures include sanctions against countries holding dollar assets that conflict with U.S. interests and encouraging other nations to restructure their U.S. asset holdings [25][26]. Future Predictions and Risks - If the U.S. attempts to reclaim control over the dollar, it could lead to a significant shift towards gold, resulting in severe liquidity shortages and potential financial turmoil similar to the 1930s or 1970s [27][30]. - The report predicts that emerging economies may adopt a "safety first" approach to balance their international accounts, potentially leading to a decline in global demand [30].

据智通财经消息，特朗普称马斯克团队审查美财政部数据发现违规，暗示36万亿美债或有"水分"。这场 债务疑云背后，藏着美国当下的多重困境。 美联储主席鲍威尔（资料图） 美联储这边也和特朗普闹得不愉快。特朗普一直要求降息，还多次炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，威胁要让他 走人。鲍威尔可不吃这一套，直接回怼特朗普没权力解除自己职务，还说美联储不会受政治压力影响， 得先顾着对抗通胀。两人这么一闹，金融市场更慌了，美元汇率跟着下跌。 再看国际上，特朗普的关税政策也没捞到好处。想靠关税逼着其他国家投资美国，可人家都不傻，美国 营商风险高，关税政策又不稳定，谁也不想当冤大头。日本之前想和美国谈投资，最后也没谈拢。其他 国家反而借着这个机会，加强和中国的合作。中欧经贸投资协定、中国 - 东盟合作，还有中日韩自贸 区，都在推进，人民币国际化的步子越迈越大，美元霸权却在一点点被削弱。 特朗普发动的关税战，本想在中美博弈中占得先机，结果却把美国自己拖进了泥沼。多轮互相加征关税 后，美国金融市场率先扛不住。美股接连暴跌，三大股指市值蒸发上万亿美元。即便特朗普宣布暂停新 关税生效三个月，也没能稳住局面，股市依旧跌跌不休。 特朗普（资料图） 美债市 ...

今年4月以来，美国特朗普政府所谓"对等关税"政策搅动世界经贸体系，全球金融市场随之陷入剧烈波动中，美国本土市场首当其冲。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，4月份，美国金融市场多次出现股债汇"三线齐跌"的现象。Wind数据显示，美股标普500指数当月下跌0.7625%，道琼斯工业指 数当月下跌3.1722%；美债则遭遇"抛长买短"，两年期美债收益率从月初的3.87%一度下降至3.6%，十年期美债收益率从月初的4.17%迅速拉升，最高达到 4.48%。 汇市方面，美元指数4月开盘104.179，收盘99.646，录得4.36%的跌幅，其间最低触达97.910。而在此之前，美元指数已长期维持在105以上的高位，且于今 年1月10日以109.6567创2023年以来的最高值。最新数据显示，截至记者发稿，美元指数徘徊在100.41附近。 中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员肖宇在接受记者采访时指出，4月份美国金融市场股债汇三杀在其历史上屈指可数。"即使是在2008年次贷危 机期间，流动性短缺导致美三大股指大幅回撤，但债市和汇市涨跌互现，也未形成单边一致性下跌"。 显然，在美国掀起的关税风暴催化下，资本市场对美元资产信 ...

文 | 空纸 编辑 | 空纸 前言 2025年就在美联储还在犹豫要不要降息、特朗普继续嘴硬打贸易战的时候，亚洲几个经济体却用"脚"投了票。 最新消息显示，日韩资本正在悄然撤出美元资产，亚洲的"抛美元潮"已经拉开了大幕。 2.5万亿美元的资金正虎视眈眈，等待合适时机"逃离美元"，与此同时，中国央行果断出手，不仅抢在美联储之前降息降准，还连续 六个月增持黄金。 反观美国，通胀还没压下去，经济却已现疲态，鲍威尔还要装作镇定自若地宣布利率不变。 如果连日本韩国都开始"去美元"，那是不是说明连盟友都开始不信它了？ 美国的经济发动机还能运转多久，中国连续买金又意味着什么？ 日韩反水 曾几何时，美元资产被视为全球最安全的"避风港"，无论是全球经济危机还是市场动荡，资本总是毫不犹豫地涌入美元资产中寻求 避险。 然而，今天，这一局面正悄然发生变化。 来自日本和韩国的大规模资本正在加速撤离美国市场，不再购买美债，也不再投资美股，甚至开始将大量资金流向亚洲本土市场， 特别是中国和东南亚。 而随着这些国家的资本开始流出，美国市场逐渐丧失了昔日的吸引力。 更为严重的是，美联储在面对美国经济疲软的情况下依然坚持维持高利率政策。 这一政策 ...

美国街头（资料图） 据北京日报报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普日前再次炮轰联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、要求其马上降息 后，美国金融市场应声大跌。特朗普22日改变先前说法，称"无意"解除鲍威尔职务。特朗普22日在白宫媒体会 上反复表示，他"从没有打算"解除鲍威尔的职务。特朗普同时重申眼下是美联储降息的"完美时刻"，他想看到鲍 威尔就降息"更积极主动一些"，但即便鲍威尔没有照做，也不意味着"终结"，只不过当下是降息的"好时机"。 据智通财经报道，美国总统特朗普表示，由马斯克领导的政府效率部在审查美国财政部的数据时发现了违规行 为。他的政府正在检查美国财政部的债务支付是否存在欺诈行为，并暗示美国36万亿美元的债务负担可能并没 有那么高。特朗普接受采访时称，政府官员一直在梳理付款记录，努力查明浪费性支出，而现在他们正把注意 力转向了在全球金融体系中发挥核心作用的债务支付。目前还不清楚特朗普指的问题是有关债务偿付还是其他 政府付款领域。 美债已经出现抛售潮，美债收益率节节攀升，10 年期美债收益率更是创下2002年11月以来最大周涨幅，甚至一 度超过 4.5%。美债收益率飙涨，美国支付的利息必然水涨船高，进而增大还债 ...

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding interest rate cuts, with Trump insisting that the Fed must lower rates to support small businesses, while the Fed maintains its current stance [1][3] - Trump's push for interest rate cuts is linked to the significant trade deficit the U.S. faces, which amounts to $1.2 trillion annually, and the burden of interest payments on national debt, which reached $1.1 trillion last year [3][5] - The debate highlights the tension between U.S. domestic monetary policy and its implications for global confidence in the dollar, raising concerns about the long-term dominance of the dollar in the global economy [3][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential shift in investment strategies away from the U.S. dollar, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to invest in infrastructure projects across various regions, thereby reducing reliance on the dollar [5][6] - The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) under the Belt and Road framework signifies a move towards multi-currency operations, enhancing the role of currencies other than the dollar in international finance [5][6] - The current trend suggests a move towards currency diversification rather than a single currency replacing the dollar, indicating the emergence of a multi-polar currency system [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the global financial landscape, particularly in light of the U.S. debt reaching $35 trillion and the shifting dynamics of international currency and trade, with China emerging as a key player in establishing a new financial order centered around the renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Market Reactions - The U.S. debt crisis has not triggered a global market upheaval as it has in the past, indicating a shift in international financial dynamics [3]. - Historically, the U.S. relied on the "dollar anchor" to manage its growing fiscal deficits, but this reliance is diminishing as countries like China develop alternative trade mechanisms [3][5]. Group 2: China's Strategic Positioning - China is actively building a financial "firewall" to protect its economy from external shocks and is gradually shifting its industrial base to reduce dependency on foreign technology [5][7]. - The rapid advancements in Chinese technology, particularly in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, are challenging the traditional dominance of U.S. innovation [7][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Order - The article highlights a growing trend among countries to reassess their reliance on the U.S. dollar, with the expansion of BRICS nations symbolizing a move towards greater economic sovereignty [7][9]. - The U.S. response to these changes has been to strengthen alliances and impose restrictions on Chinese industries, which may inadvertently accelerate the process of de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in technology and finance is reshaping global economic rules, with China positioning itself as a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker [10][12]. - The article suggests that the global financial landscape is undergoing a transformation, with countries reevaluating their strategies in light of shifting power dynamics [12].