【环球网财经综合报道】周一美盘时段，现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元/盎司关口，创6月17日以来新高，日内涨幅近1.5%。贸易谈判不确定性 叠加降息预期升温，推动资金涌入避险资产，其他贵金属同步走强：白银涨1.8%、铂金升2.2%、钯金飙升3.5%。 美元指数跌近0.8%，10年期美债收益率跌至一周低点，降低持有黄金的机会成本。High Ridge Futures金属主管David Meger指出："关税大限临近 和降息预期升温构成双重利好，黄金成为不确定性中的'安全锚'。" SPI Asset Management合伙人Stephen Innes表示，欧盟调整对俄石油出口价格上限引发能源供应担忧，日本首相石破茂执政不稳可能干扰美日贸易 谈判，进一步推高市场避险情绪。他强调，贸易战、政治动荡与通胀隐忧交织，黄金作为防御性资产的需求将持续强劲。（陈十一） 美国政府设定8月1日为贸易协议最后期限，否则将加征更多关税。欧盟外交人士透露，与美谈判前景黯淡，欧盟正酝酿反制措施，包括动用"反胁 迫工具"限制美企进入金融服务市场及欧盟招标。德国政府暗示支持此举，加剧市场对贸易冲突升级的担忧。 芝商所数据显示，交易员预计美联 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美元走低，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，金价走高；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益 率跌3.38个基点报4.3757%；美元指数跌0.64%报97.83，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值 报7.1810；COMEX黄金期货涨1.55%报3410.30美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办发布会、人社部二季度新闻发布会、美联储主席鲍威尔及 委员讲话。国内风险偏好改善，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，美元走弱，金价震 荡收涨。沪金溢价收敛至-1.1元/ ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.25% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.07% as of midday close [1] - The total market turnover reached 137.79 billion HKD [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO Inc. increasing over 4% and BYD Company Limited rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - Power equipment stocks continued their strong performance, with Harbin Electric Company Limited rising over 8% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks were active, with GF Securities Co., Ltd. increasing nearly 4% [1] - Gold stocks saw a general increase, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. rising over 4%, driven by risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [1] Group 3 - Cement and building materials stocks experienced some pullback, with Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. declining over 11% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited rising over 3% while Horizon Robotics fell over 3% [1]

Market Overview - Investors are focused on a busy week of earnings reports, including major companies like Tesla and Google A, leading to a collective rise in the three major U.S. stock indices [1] - European stocks experienced a slight decline amid unclear U.S.-EU tariff negotiations, while Japanese markets showed short-term recovery [1][3] U.S. Stock Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.7%, and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.4%, both reaching intraday all-time highs [2] - Tesla's stock increased by over 2% following Elon Musk's announcement of significant advancements in the company's autonomous driving capabilities [2] - Trump's Media Technology Group saw a rise of over 7% after announcing a total Bitcoin reserve purchase of $2 billion [2] European Stock Performance - European stocks opened slightly lower, with the pan-European index down nearly 0.2% and German stocks declining over 0.1% [3] - The automotive manufacturer Stellantis reported a loss of €2.3 billion (approximately $2.7 billion) in the first half of the year due to restructuring costs and sales slowdown, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [10] Currency and Commodity Movements - The Japanese yen appreciated by about 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the U.S. dollar index fell nearly 0.5% [4][16] - Gold prices rose by over 1%, and silver prices increased by nearly 0.9% [6][24] - Crude oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil down over 0.1% and Brent oil down over 0.3% [7][24] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell for the fourth consecutive day, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield decreasing by about 4 basis points [5][14] - The decline in yields reflects investor sentiment amid tariff threats and concerns regarding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership [14]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices remained stable around $3354, following a 0.35% increase last Friday due to a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties that boosted demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The decline of the dollar index by 0.5% made gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, potentially increasing its appeal [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Inflation - The U.S. dollar fell against the euro last Friday but maintained weekly gains as investors assessed expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies amid signs that tariffs might increase inflationary pressures [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise this summer due to tariff policies, which delayed expectations for potential interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal funds futures traders anticipate a total of 46 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, likely consisting of two 25 basis point cuts, with the first expected in September [4] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs but maintained that the U.S. economy is in good shape, suggesting significant rate cuts within the next 12 months [3][4] Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are facing challenges, with the U.S. aiming for nearly comprehensive tariffs on EU goods, while the EU seeks to continue negotiations to resolve the impasse before the August 1 deadline [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated potential for a "good agreement" with Japan, while discussions with Indonesia regarding a new trade deal are still in progress [4] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached new highs in recent weeks, as investor sentiment regarding the impact of Trump's tariff threats has become more complex, with reduced fears about the potential damage to the U.S. economy [5] - This week is viewed as a critical period for assessing how Trump's economic policies will affect the broader economy, with key focus on Powell's speech and the European Central Bank's decisions [5]

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 避险情绪升温，金银预计偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 贵金属周报 一、上周交易数据 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周国际金价呈震荡走势，而银价则在创历史新高之后出 现回落。美国与其他贸易国的谈判仍存在风险，且美联储 主席易主的传闻愈演愈烈，市场担忧美联储货币政策突然 转向的风险，但美国经济数据保持韧性，美元指数持续反 弹对贵金属价格形成压制。银价在创出39.57美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks in Washington and the Middle East, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe [1] Geopolitical Risks - The turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the Houthi attacks on Iraqi oil fields, has led to a daily drop in oil production by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels, impacting the global energy market [4] - The issuance of missile safety alerts by the US Embassy in Israel has heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [4] Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are causing market fluctuations, with hawkish member Kugler opposing rate cuts while dovish member Waller advocates for a 25 basis point cut in July [2][5] - Market expectations for a July rate cut have risen from 28% to 30%, while the probability of a September cut remains at 54% [2] Trade Tensions - The escalation of the US-EU trade war, including a 40% tariff on EU steel starting August 1, has begun to impact the precious metals supply chain [6] - A factory owner in Dongguan reported a 50% drop in orders for 18K gold necklaces destined for the US, resulting in significant inventory losses [6] Market Volatility - A rumor regarding former President Trump's consideration to fire Fed Chair Powell caused gold prices to spike by $50 to a three-week high of $3,377 before dropping back down, illustrating the extreme volatility in the gold market [8] - Gold has experienced nine instances of daily fluctuations exceeding $35 since July [8] Precious Metals Price Movements - Platinum prices have surged to a two-month high of $1,408, driven by miner strikes in South Africa and the booming hydrogen vehicle market, while silver prices have declined due to weak global factory orders [8] - Domestic gold prices in Shanghai opened at 771.2 yuan per gram, slightly down from the previous day, while retail prices for gold jewelry are significantly higher due to additional costs [9] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, purchasing between 37 to 39 tons monthly, with China's central bank being the most aggressive, raising its reserves to 2,298 tons over the past eight months [9] - Some Nordic pension funds have increased their gold allocations to 14%, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [9]

Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国零售销售数据强劲，金价V型反转；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.80个基点报 4.449%；美元指数涨0.36%报98.64，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1847；COMEX黄 金期货跌0.41%报3345.40美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布 会、日本6月CPI、日本27届选举、美国7月密歇根消费者信心指数。美国零售销售数 据强劲，但美联储主席更换预期下，降息预期高涨， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the fluctuating risk sentiment in the market and its impact on gold prices, indicating a need for real-time analysis of order flows to predict future trends [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment towards gold is influenced by varying levels of risk aversion among investors [1] - Real-time order flow analysis is being utilized by industry experts to assess the future direction of gold prices [1]