Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the FOMC meeting, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the Shanghai copper futures price oscillated. The macro - environment showed that the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The previous loose trading for copper may have ended, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The fundamentals were in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provided bottom support, and in the short - term, copper prices oscillated strongly under the loose background. The subsequent upward cycle needed the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract was 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market was in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply - side factors such as the potential restart of a mining company in Guinea and a possible strike, as well as production cuts in Henan due to environmental protection, provided short - term support, but the overall supply was in excess. The demand was weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term main contract was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro - atmosphere was bullish, and the fundamentals improved moderately. The short - term price was expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. If the demand improvement was less than expected, the price might fall back [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and declined with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the procurement cost of recycled aluminum enterprises was high, which supported the price. The demand showed a mild recovery, and the inventory was still accumulating. The short - term main contract was expected to run in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices were generally strong, but Shanghai zinc was relatively weak due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side saw overseas mines entering the production and resumption cycle, and the smelting profit was repaired. The demand entered the peak season, but the domestic and overseas performance was differentiated. The short - term price might be driven up by the macro - environment, but the upward space was limited. The reference range for the main contract was 21500 - 22500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and the demand was weak. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was difficult to make up for the decline in traditional demand. If the supply in Myanmar recovered smoothly, a short - selling strategy could be considered; otherwise, the price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the running range of 265000 - 285000 [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the macro - environment was weak. The spot trading of refined nickel did not change significantly. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was relatively loose, and the price of nickel - iron was strong. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price decreased slightly, and the market trading was average. The macro - environment overseas was weak after the Fed's interest - rate cut, while domestic policies were positive. The raw material prices were firm, and the supply of nickel - iron increased, but the demand for stainless steel had not significantly increased. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 12800 - 13400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the domestic policies had been digested by the market. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state. The supply increased due to new projects and increased lithium - spodumene processing, and the demand was expected to increase in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main - contract price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in August was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.44 million tons week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The alumina production in August was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.3 million tons week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20950 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production in August was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in August was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The galvanizing开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 0.43 million tons week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price was 270200 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in July decreased by 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHEF inventory increased by 124 tons, and the social inventory increased by 108 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day. The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 400 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 460 tons week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.83 million tons month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.60 million tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.451 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in August was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The lithium carbonate total inventory in August decreased by 366 tons month - on - month, and the downstream inventory increased by 7552 tons month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel (2510), it is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term bullish factors such as the potential impact of Indonesia's mine inspection and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2511), it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. The market is neutral to bullish in the short term due to factors like firm nickel ore prices, rising nickel iron prices, and good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On September 18, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 120,940, down 850 from the previous day; the London Nickel was at 15,335, down 110; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,875, down 60. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,700, down 100 [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with the futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. On September 18, LME nickel inventory was 228,450, a decrease of 18; Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 25,866, a decrease of 275 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. On September 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 90,146, a decrease of 5,119 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On September 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. High - nickel (8 - 12) was at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, up 0.5 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 13,155, the scrap steel production cost was 13,562, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,859 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,586 yuan per ton [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors include the demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - Bearish factors include the continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and the year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in September 2025 is experiencing a mixed performance, with core cities showing resilience while other areas face significant declines in transaction volumes [1][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of September 2025, the transaction area in 30 key cities reached 159.3 million square meters, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The opening sales rate for projects in these cities was 38%, a slight decrease of 4 percentage points from August 2025 but an increase of 11 percentage points compared to September 2024 [1]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Core cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are performing better than last year, with Shanghai's sales rate at 61%, up 4 percentage points from August 2025 and 12 percentage points from September 2024 [5][6]. - Hangzhou's sales rate was 72%, slightly down from August 2025 but up 27 percentage points from September 2024 [5][6]. - Chengdu had a remarkable sales rate of 100% with only one project launched, indicating strong market interest [6]. Group 3: Visitor and Conversion Rates - In Guangzhou, the average weekly visitor count was around 5,121 since June 2025, with a notable recovery in the second week of September, where visitor numbers increased by 11% and sales surged by 40% [9][10]. - Tianjin also saw a rise in customer conversion rates due to new project launches, with significant increases in sales in specific districts [10][11]. - Wuhan's market heat improved with a project opening rate of 60% in the first half of September, up 26 percentage points from July [13]. Group 4: Market Divergence - There is a clear divergence in market performance, with cities like Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Nanjing experiencing declining sales and high levels of buyer hesitation [17]. - Overall, the market remains volatile, driven by the concentration of new projects in core cities and enhanced marketing efforts [18].

Group 1 - The automotive market is experiencing a surge in new vehicle launches, with nearly 40 new models expected in September 2023, compared to 17 in the same month of 2024, indicating a significant increase in activity [1] - September 17 alone saw the launch of five new electric vehicle models, including the 2025 Mercedes-Benz EQS and the new Chery Fengyun X3L, highlighting the trend towards electric vehicles [1] - The Chinese government has been supporting the electric vehicle industry by exempting vehicle purchase tax since 2014, with 2023 being the last year for full exemption, and a gradual reduction in tax for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - Automakers are under pressure to meet annual sales targets, with Geely and BYD leading in completion rates at 63% and 62% respectively, while others like BAIC are struggling at 36% [2] - New energy vehicle brands such as XPeng and Li Auto have shown higher completion rates, while brands like NIO and Zeekr face significant sales challenges with rates below 40% [2] - In response to market pressures, several automakers have introduced promotional strategies, including Tesla's price cuts and financing offers, to stimulate sales [2] Group 3 - Over 20 provinces and cities in China have launched regional purchase subsidies in September, creating a layered subsidy effect to encourage vehicle purchases [3] - For example, Guangxi province has initiated a vehicle purchase subsidy program with amounts ranging from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan, totaling 350 million yuan in subsidies [3] - Local governments are also offering additional incentives such as fuel vouchers and insurance coupons to further promote vehicle sales [3]

证券时报记者吴家明 9月5日的楼市新政之后，深圳大部分区域的购房门槛大幅降低，各类购房需求在一定程度上被激活，而 且新房成交热点开始扩散，从"单点爆发"走向"多点开花"。 目前，正是房地产传统的"金九"营销旺季，不少开发商积极准备，以把握难得的政策窗口期。记者了解 到，多个开发商正在积极筹备推盘计划。中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示，市场已进入"金 九"传统营销旺季，房企在核心城市有望加快推盘节奏，尤其是新规项目入市将有效带动部分改善需求 释放，市场活跃度或将迎来阶段性回升。 在中指研究院深圳分院高级分析师孙红梅看来，此次深圳楼市新政通过分区调控、成本降低、资格扩容 的组合拳，在短期内显著激活市场，非核心区域量价齐升、核心区域温和回暖。政策精准切中深圳楼 市"外围去库存、核心稳预期"的痛点，预计将为"金九银十"楼市旺季奠定基础。 据深圳贝壳研究院监测，新政后第一周，贝壳深圳合作门店新房认购项目中，排名前十的项目占比达 55%，而进入新政的第二周，这一占比大幅回落至33%，成交向更多的楼盘扩散。 套均总价方面，新政第一周贝壳深圳合作门店新房认购项目套均总价为364万元，新政第二周套均总价 达到470万元，环 ...

深圳楼市受新政提振的热情持续，多家地产中介门店咨询、带客、成交量持续上涨。第一财经记者近日 走访深圳多家中介门店了解到，部分中介门店新政后成交量较8月同期上涨了100%，同时成交周期明显 缩短，部分楼盘成交价出现了上涨。业内认为，随着传统交易旺季的到来，叠加新政效应，今年"金九 银十"成交量较此前月均数据的涨幅，或将达到50%。更现场、更财经，一探究竟！ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips, while treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading, and glass recommends buying on dips [1][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; aluminum recommends buying on dips after a pullback; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin and precious metals like gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash recommends an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][18][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate. Apples are expected to be oscillating strongly, and red dates are expected to be oscillating weakly [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs recommend shorting on rallies. Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal is expected to have a weak oscillation, and oils are expected to be oscillating strongly [1][40][44] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by macro - economic factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, while others are influenced by industry - specific supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations [5][10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Driven by technology manufacturing sectors, the index oscillated upward on Wednesday. The market may be looking for a clear main line of prosperity, and a structural market may continue. Fed rate cuts in September may create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing, and the positive spiral of index profit - making effect and incremental funds is still in operation [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: After recent continuous recoveries, key - term yields are approaching important resistance levels. With the end of the tax - payment period, the return of loose liquidity, and the approaching end of institutional balance - sheet adjustment at the end of the quarter, the bond - market inflection point may be approaching, but there may still be fluctuations near the important resistance level [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices are rising across the board, and the procurement rhythm of some enterprises has accelerated [8] - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The anti - involution expectation has resurfaced, and the black sentiment is strong. Fundamentally, the apparent demand, production, and inventory have changed. The futures price is near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side production capacity has remained stable, and inventories have decreased. Demand has improved, and the market sentiment has warmed up. In the traditional peak season, there are positive expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1210 - 1220 for the 01 contract and buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price has risen in the range this week. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is strong, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased in the peak season, and the supply is expected to tighten. Although there are concerns about high prices in the market, the copper price is expected to remain strong, and the Shanghai copper main contract may test the 82500 mark [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite production and transportation. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. Demand has entered the peak - season rhythm, but inventories have continued to accumulate. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [11] - **Nickel**: The uncertainty of nickel ore has increased, but the bottom support is still strong. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is strong. Stainless - steel demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and the price of nickel sulfate is rising. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 260,000 - 278,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 - contract [14][15] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: The market's expectation of multiple rate cuts within the year has increased, and the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the 9700 - 10500 range and the Shanghai gold 10 - contract in the 815 - 855 range [15][16] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, and demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. The inventory is high, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [18][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro - economic outlook is positive, supply inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is affected by factors such as crude - oil supply - demand and pure - benzene production. The port inventory is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 7000 - 7300 range [23] - **Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price is high, and the inventory has continued to decline. The macro - guidance has intensified, and the spot - market trading sentiment has weakened. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range consolidation, focusing on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: The market's production and sales have weakened, and the price has continued to decline. The supply - side start - up rate has decreased, and the demand is scattered. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract and the positive - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][29] - **Methanol**: The supply has remained stable, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased. The inventory has changed. It is expected to have a weak oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [29] - **Polyolefins**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - consumption season, the downstream start - up rate has continued to improve, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate, with the LL main contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has improved, and manufacturers' shipments have been smooth. However, the production has increased, and there is a surplus in theory. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, and the macro - environment has become better. However, the expected increase in new - cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [35] - **PTA**: After the end of the US traditional fuel - consumption peak season, the demand has weakened, and the international oil price has fallen. The cost and supply - demand are in a reverse - driving situation, and the PTA has accumulated inventory. Due to planned maintenance, the supply - demand pressure is expected to decrease [36] - **Apples**: The early - maturing Fuji in the west is coming to an end, and the quality of the remaining goods has differentiated. The red - general situation in Shandong has some problems, and the inventory - Fuji trading has slowed down. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [36] - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The current consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: On September 18, the pig price continued to decline. The supply in September has continued to increase, and the demand growth is slow. The state may start purchasing and reserve - rotation policies, and there is still pressure - holding and reluctance to sell. In the long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the 05 and 07 contracts and shorting the 03 contract [40] - **Eggs**: As the egg price rebounds to a relatively high level, the cold - storage eggs are being released, and the stocking demand is coming to an end. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month 10 and 11 contracts or hold the 11 put options, and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [41] - **Corn**: It is currently the transitional period between old and new crops. The trade inventory is not high, and the market is waiting for new - crop listings. The new - crop opening price is higher year - on - year, and the price is seasonally under pressure. In the long - term, the corn planting is stable, and the cost support has shifted down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. Domestically, the arrival of soybeans from September to October is abundant, and the price is under pressure due to state - reserve sales, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2980 support level of the M2601 contract [44] - **Oils**: The prices of oils have corrected from high levels. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased, and the export data is conflicting. The US soybean production and supply - demand situation is complex, and the domestic rapeseed oil supply is facing uncertainties. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage of the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [46][51]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of the Chinese automotive market in August and September, highlighting a steady growth trend despite tightening subsidy policies and market uncertainties [2][6]. Group 1: August Market Review - In August, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.018 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in August totaled 1.115 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% and a month-on-month growth of 13.0%, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [2]. Group 2: September Market Outlook - The traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to bring stable growth, with an estimated retail market size of around 2.15 million units in September, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [3][6]. - The expected retail volume of NEVs in September is around 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate projected to reach 58.1%, setting a new historical high [3][6]. Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of September, daily retail sales averaged 43,500 units, down 10.3% year-on-year and down 3.8% month-on-month [4]. - By the second week, daily retail sales rebounded to 59,500 units, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 11.9% [4]. - The third week is expected to see daily retail sales reach 68,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [4]. - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 105,900 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 19.0% [4]. Group 4: Market Stability and Consumer Behavior - The initial stability in market discounts and a more regulated pricing system indicate a positive trend in the automotive consumption market, with retail sales of automotive products showing a recovery [6]. - The introduction of new models and the impact of local stimulus policies are expected to enhance market contributions, particularly in the NEV segment, which is anticipated to continue its rapid growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in September continues to show high volatility, driven by the concentration of hot properties in core cities and enhanced marketing efforts during the strong sales period, leading to a year-on-year increase in short-term project sales rates [1][31]. Market Performance - In the first half of September, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 key cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, with a total area of 159.3 million square meters sold [4][5]. - The average sales rate for projects in these cities was 38%, a slight decrease of 4 percentage points from August 2025 but an increase of 11 percentage points compared to September 2024 [5]. City Classification - Cities are categorized into three types based on their market performance: 1. **Core First and Second Tier Cities**: Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have seen project sales rates significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu performing better than the same period last year [7][10]. 2. **Weak Recovery Cities**: Cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin are experiencing a low recovery, with increased visitor and subscription rates due to the launch of hot properties [8][14]. 3. **Cities with Declining Demand**: Cities like Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Nanjing are facing a decline in subscription volumes, leading to a drop in customer conversion rates and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [8][23]. Specific City Insights - **Beijing**: The sales rate dropped to 6% due to limited new launches, a decrease of 16 percentage points from August and 18 percentage points from September 2024 [10][11]. - **Shanghai**: The sales rate improved by 4 percentage points from August to 57%, and by 12 percentage points compared to September 2024 [11]. - **Guangzhou**: The market showed signs of recovery with increased visitor and subscription rates in the second week of September, leading to a rise in customer conversion rates [14][18]. - **Wuhan**: The market heat increased due to new launches, with a sales rate of 60% in early September, up 26 percentage points from July [21][20]. - **Xi'an**: The market faced a bottleneck with a drop in customer conversion rates to 2.25%, the lowest in nearly a year [23]. Overall Market Outlook - The September market is characterized by high volatility, with core cities benefiting from the concentration of desirable properties and strong marketing efforts, while other cities show varied recovery potential [31].