Group 1 - Gold prices have shown a significant increase, reaching a five-week high, with a closing price of $3417.07 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand [2] - Analysts predict that the U.S. may experience stagflation, which could provide substantial upward potential for gold prices [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year acceleration from 2.8% to 2.9% [2] Group 2 - Fidelity's multi-asset portfolio manager Ian Samson expresses optimism about gold prices, citing a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy and the likelihood of stagflation [2] - Factors such as declining interest rates, persistent inflation, and weak economic growth are expected to support gold prices, while the uncertainty surrounding tariffs adds to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - Concerns over the large U.S. budget deficit and potential currency devaluation further enhance the long-term outlook for gold [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have established a clear upward trend since mid-August, with current trading above the 20-day moving average [3] - The MACD indicator shows increasing momentum, while the RSI remains below the overbought threshold, suggesting continued upward potential for gold [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3450, with a potential target of $3500, while support levels are noted at $3380 and $3350 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump has heightened political risk concerns and boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices rose to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.43 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.83% following the announcement [1]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for government bonds steepened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged to over 87% [1]. Group 2: Catalysts for Gold Price Movement - The continuation of gold's upward trend in the short term depends on three key catalysts: the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts in September, upcoming GDP and PCE data confirming economic slowdown, and whether the dispute between Trump and the Fed escalates into a legal or political crisis [3]. - If the GDP and PCE data indicate economic weakness, it could further increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold prices [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - If the independence of the Federal Reserve continues to be undermined, gold may enter a structural bull market, although concerns about inflation could lead to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The current environment, characterized by suppressed short-term rates and political instability, is generally favorable for gold [3].

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, reaching a two-week high of $3393.43 following the unexpected dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump, which raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and heightened market risk aversion [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries steepened, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to over 87% [1] Technical Analysis - In the previous trading session, gold fluctuated and found support at $3367.1 before rising to a high of $3393, indicating a bullish trend with a daily close showing a large bullish candle [3] - The daily indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards and KDJ indicators showing a bullish crossover [3] - However, the hourly chart indicates a short-term bearish trend, with K-line showing consecutive declines and KDJ indicators indicating overbought conditions [3] Trading Recommendations - Suggested to buy gold in the range of $3371-$3374 with a stop loss at $3366 and a take profit target of $3385-$3390 [5] - Suggested to sell gold in the range of $3396-$3399 with a stop loss at $3405 and a take profit target of $3380 [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The international gold market saw significant price increases, with London spot gold surpassing $3,380 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching $3,400, marking a new high for the year [1] - The World Gold Council reported a 45% surge in global gold demand value by Q2 2025, reaching $132 billion, with ETF holdings exceeding $450 billion, a historical peak [1][3] - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue this trend, and the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for nine consecutive months, surpassing 2,300 tons [3] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential early interest rate cuts during the Jackson Hole meeting, igniting market enthusiasm, with major U.S. stock indices rising over 1.5% [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from 75% to 91%, with Goldman Sachs predicting three rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points [3] Group 3: Chinese Stock Market Developments - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced a 1.8% increase on August 5, with Huami Technology soaring 48%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 570% [4] - Foreign capital returned to Hong Kong stocks for the first time in 41 weeks, with a net inflow of $429 million, ending a 40-week outflow streak [4] - The People's Bank of China signaled potential monetary easing, including a possible reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, alongside local government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [4] Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Concerns - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, indicating a cautious approach, while the Bank of Japan signaled potential rate hikes, leading to concerns about global capital flow volatility [6] - The World Gold Council warned of potential profit-taking due to rapid gold price increases, suggesting a need for caution in the market [6] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions, with implications for both gold and Chinese stocks in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in international gold prices is viewed as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental reversal of the long-term bullish trend in gold [2][3] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Short-term Pressure on Gold Prices - The postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to a stronger US dollar and direct pressure on gold prices [2] - Technical profit-taking has occurred due to the previous rapid increase in gold prices, resulting in increased volatility and price corrections as speculative long positions are liquidated [2] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold Prices - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, driven by geopolitical risks and the diversification of foreign exchange reserves, providing strong structural buying support for the market [2] - Geopolitical risks remain high, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [2] - The rapid expansion of global debt and potential financial crisis risks undermine the credibility of fiat currencies, enhancing the monetary value of gold [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The current decline is seen as a healthy "mid-game break" that allows for the digestion of crowded long trades, potentially setting the stage for the next upward movement [3] - Investors should focus on the strategic value of gold as a hedge against uncertainty rather than a tool for short-term profit [3] - Future gold price movements will depend on the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the evolution of global macro risks, with volatility expected to be a constant [3]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bullish trend of gold is not over, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar system [2] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, gold prices saw a nearly 20% increase, but from Q2 onwards, prices remained stable with decreased trading activity [1] - The current gold bull market is supported by rising international risks in politics, economy, and military, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 127%, causing international investors to lose confidence in dollar assets [2] Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The performance of the U.S. stock market reflects global risk appetite; when the stock market performs well, gold prices tend to be under pressure, and vice versa [3] - Recent positive performance in global stock markets, including the U.S., China, Japan, and parts of Europe, has led to a subdued gold market [3] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is becoming evident, with July non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating potential economic pressure ahead [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is seen as a potential turning point for global financial markets, although the actual impact on gold prices remains uncertain [4] - Despite expectations for rate cuts, the market has not seen a corresponding increase in gold prices, as financial markets have benefited from a loose monetary policy [4] - As the effects of tariffs become more pronounced, inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy execution and potentially leading to a shift of investment towards gold as a safe haven [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term upward trend of gold is not over, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar system, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 127%, leading to increased concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. economy and investor confidence in dollar assets [2] - The performance of the U.S. stock market is closely linked to global risk appetite, with a strong stock market typically putting pressure on gold prices, while a weak stock market supports gold [3] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September is seen as a potential turning point for global financial markets, with market participants anticipating multiple rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - Despite the anticipation of rate cuts, gold prices have not seen a corresponding increase, as the financial markets have benefited from a loose monetary policy environment [4] - As the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more pronounced, inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy execution and potentially leading to a shift of investment funds towards gold and other safe-haven assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of upstream mining companies has improved significantly in the first half of 2025, with net profits showing notable growth, attributed mainly to the increase in gold sales prices compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Gold prices have remained high, fluctuating between $3100 and $3450, benefiting upstream mining companies and leading to an increase in exploration budgets and M&A activities [1] - The positive sentiment towards gold investments has led to the introduction of customized products, such as a unique gold keycap keyboard by JD.com [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Shandong Gold (600547) expects a net profit of 25.5 billion to 30.5 billion yuan, an increase of 84.3% to 120.5% year-on-year, driven by optimized production and rising gold prices [2] - Zhongjin Gold (600489) anticipates a net profit of 26.14 billion to 28.75 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 50% to 65%, due to effective production organization and cost reduction [2] - Western Gold (601069) projects a net profit of 1.3 billion to 1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.35% to 141.66%, attributed to higher gold sales prices and increased sales volume [2] - Chifeng Gold (600988) expects a net profit of 10.8 billion to 11.3 billion yuan, a rise of 52.01% to 59.04%, due to a 41.76% increase in gold sales prices [3] - Shanjin International (000975) forecasts a net profit of 15.4 billion to 16.4 billion yuan, up 43.24% to 52.55%, benefiting from gold price increases and operational efficiency [3] - Hunan Gold (002155) anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.13 billion to 7.01 billion yuan, with a growth of 40% to 60%, driven by rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 11, 2025 - Research Team: Macro and Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Fed's potential rate cut and Trump's new policies support the precious metals market, but there are also uncertainties such as Fed officials' stances and geopolitical situations. Gold's long - and mid - term bull markets are supported by various factors, but its volatility has increased. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term view and medium - low positions, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's nomination of a new Fed governor raises the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to 86.6%, which supports the precious metals' upward movement. However, some Fed officials believe that a September rate cut is not certain, and the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict under US pressure causes London gold to face resistance around $3400/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and use medium - low positions for trading [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change % | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 786.70 | 790.19 | 785.20 | 789.42 | 0.35% | 441,940 | 3990 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,275 | 9,334 | 9,258 | 9,295 | 0.22% | 784,183 | - 10841 | | Gold T + D | 782.02 | 784.45 | 778.80 | 783.50 | 0.19% | 213,736 | 4684 | | Silver T + D | 9,224 | 9,287 | 9,210 | 9,249 | 0.27% | 3,528,966 | 24404 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have reduced gold's hedging and allocation demand, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks, along with the deterioration of the US job market, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, the silver price fluctuated greatly. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the mid - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, the high price and P/E ratio of gold have increased its volatility. It is expected that London gold will continue to move within the range in the short term. Long - term investors are advised to participate with medium - low positions, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days, and Zelensky has held talks with European leaders on the peace process [17]. - Trump has nominated Milan as a temporary Fed governor and is still looking for candidates for a long - term Fed seat. Fed Governor Waller is the favorite to become the next Fed chairman [17]. - The US and China may extend the tariff truce by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods and is considering tariffs on China [17]. - The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers oppose it, indicating that the continuous rate cuts may be near the end [17]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that it is too early to promise a rate cut as key data has not been released and inflation is expected to rise in the next few months [18].

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a stark contrast between high investment demand and low consumer interest, with domestic gold prices remaining high while retail sales decline significantly [1][19][21] - China Gold Group, once a market leader, is facing severe challenges including plummeting revenues and profits, alongside negative publicity from various scandals [1][4][6][23] - The traditional business model of China Gold is failing to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations who prioritize design and cultural value over weight and price [4][13][22] Group 1: Market Performance - International spot gold prices recently peaked at $3399.27 per ounce before retreating, while domestic gold prices remain at 781 yuan per gram [1] - Despite high gold prices, 13 out of 15 listed jewelry companies in China reported declining net profits, with many established brands seeing revenue drops exceeding 15% [1][19] - China Gold's first-quarter 2025 financial report indicated a nearly 40% year-on-year decline in revenue and over 60% drop in net profit [1][6] Group 2: Company Challenges - China Gold has faced multiple crises, including franchisee bankruptcies, executive scandals, and safety incidents, leading to a tarnished brand image [3][4][7][10] - The company's revenue model, which relied heavily on low-cost gold and high-weight products, has become ineffective as consumer preferences shift towards design and brand prestige [4][13] - The franchise model has resulted in a lack of oversight and quality control, with numerous complaints about product quality and service issues [12][22] Group 3: Industry Trends - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a shift, with a 5.96% decline in consumption and a 26.85% drop in gold jewelry sales year-on-year [21] - Younger consumers are increasingly drawn to alternative products and experiences, leading to a decline in interest in traditional gold jewelry [21][22] - Competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are innovating with culturally rich products, while China Gold struggles to introduce significant new offerings [13][15][22] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold industry is at a crossroads, where companies must either innovate or face obsolescence, with a focus on brand value and consumer engagement becoming critical [23] - China Gold is attempting to pivot by increasing self-operated stores and launching culturally themed products, but the success of these initiatives remains uncertain [14][15][16] - The ongoing rise in gold prices presents both challenges and opportunities for traditional gold companies, necessitating a reevaluation of their business strategies [18][23]