Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting, with current market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September facing resistance from the Fed [2][4][12]. Economic Environment - Despite a 100 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate over the past year, the macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is more severe than a year ago, necessitating rate cuts to counteract a slowdown in economic growth expected after 2025 [4]. - The downward trend in hard economic data may continue, and Powell's stance at the Jackson Hole meeting will be crucial [4]. Employment Data - The significant downward revision in the July non-farm payroll report initially caused panic, but market focus shifted to the "proportion" of revisions rather than "absolute values," leading to a decrease in recession fears [5]. - Weakness in employment is attributed to a decline in labor supply trends and short-term noise, which limits the report's impact on the likelihood of a September rate cut [5]. Inflation Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows strength in services but weakness in goods, while a hotter Producer Price Index (PPI) has created some market disturbances without significantly suppressing the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9]. - Concerns about tariff-induced inflation in sensitive core goods are a primary worry for the market, although the increasing contribution of service inflation suggests a temporary positive outlook [9]. Fed's Rate Cut Outlook - The sentiment for a rate cut is bolstered by the expansion of potential candidates for the Fed Chair position, who are perceived as more dovish, indicating a more politically influenced Fed in the future [12]. - If Powell adopts a vague, hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole meeting, it may be a strategic move to counteract overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts [12][18]. Future Data Dependency - The decision for a September rate cut will heavily depend on the August non-farm payroll data, particularly the revisions and the unemployment rate's stability [14]. - Employment metrics are lagging indicators, and the deterioration in labor participation and employment rates suggests underlying weakness in the private sector [17].

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views Macro Perspective - In China, economic growth in July showed a marginal slowdown, but a package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect. If economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [2]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the risk of a US economic downturn has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends, and Powell's speech may provide key guidance for subsequent monetary policies. In the short - term, the US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Equity Market - Last week, the stock index showed a volume - driven upward trend. Although there was no obvious positive fundamental drive, the market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to be in an upward - biased state, but trading should be cautious due to the lack of fundamental support [6]. Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are under pressure due to the US PPI significantly exceeding expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, while alumina may show a weak - side shock, and cast aluminum alloy may also correct [9][13][14]. - **Base Metals**: Zinc prices are expected to be range - bound. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the ranges of [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan respectively. Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state. Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [18][21][23]. - **Black Metals**: Steel fundamentals are weakening, but there is still cost support. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are facing increasing supply pressure [30][31][37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices face a medium - term risk of breaking down due to the lack of positive news from the US - Russia meeting and the weakening of geopolitical support. LPG fundamentals remain loose. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand processing fees at low prices. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [41][44][47]. - **Other Commodities**: PVC remains in a weak state. Pure benzene and styrene show a double - de - stocking trend. Fuel oil is still weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [58][60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown. The US retail sales in July increased, but consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. The "Trump - Putin meeting" took place, and there are expectations for a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party meeting. Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs in two weeks [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, economic data in July slowed down, but policies are being implemented. Overseas, the September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823 on the previous trading day, down 93 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1371, down 34 basis points [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US economic downturn risk is rising. The Jackson Hole meeting is crucial for observing policy trends. In the short - term, the US dollar index may fluctuate, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the stock index rose with reduced volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. In the futures market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume [6]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index was driven by volume last week. Although there was no fundamental positive drive, market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to rise, but trading should be cautious [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market was under pressure. The increase in US PPI and inflation expectations cooled the interest - rate cut expectations [9]. - **Funds and Inventory**: Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver ETFs increased, while short - term non - commercial net long positions decreased. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed to different extents [10]. - **Core Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Attention should be paid to US economic data and the Jackson Hole meeting [11]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper futures contract rose slightly during the week and then fell, closing at around 79,000 yuan per ton. Inventories in different markets changed [12]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate or slightly strengthen. The restart of the Chilean mine has limited impact on prices [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [14]. - **Alumina**: Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The market may shift to cost - based pricing, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock - adjustment state [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum alloy. The futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,505 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [17]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc fundamentals remain unchanged, and prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel contracts showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the week [19]. - **Core Logic**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate in the [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan ranges respectively, with cost support [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin futures contract rose and then fell slightly, closing at 266,000 yuan per ton. Inventories were relatively stable [23]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the delay in the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines providing support [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and polysilicon futures fluctuated widely [24]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [26]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [27]. - **Core Logic**: Lead fundamentals are deadlocked, and prices are expected to be range - bound [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: The market showed a pattern of consolidation [29]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but there is cost support. The rebar 10 - contract is expected to have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil around 3350 [30]. - **Iron Ore** - **Core Logic**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is neutral, and the demand from molten iron provides support. The terminal demand has some problems in the rebar segment [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices fluctuated, and coke prices rose for the sixth round. The double - coking futures fluctuated widely [33]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to the changes in finished - product inventories. The supply of coking coal is in a tight - balance state, and coke supply has disturbing factors [33][34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed [35][36]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of ferroalloys is increasing, and the demand has certain support but also limitations. The prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices showed a stop - falling adjustment after sideways trading, with the US and Brent crude oil futures prices falling [39]. - **Core Logic**: The US - Russia meeting did not bring positive news, and the geopolitical support for crude oil weakened. The medium - term risk of price breakdown is increasing [41]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [42][43]. - **Core Logic**: LPG fundamentals remain loose, with the supply remaining high and the demand having a slight improvement [44]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices were range - bound, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to buy to expand PTA processing fees at low prices, as PTA processing fees are at a historical low [47]. - **MEG - Bottle - Grade Chips** - **Market Review**: MEG prices were range - bound, with changes in inventory and device operations [48]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [49][50]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: Methanol 09 contract prices changed, and the inventory in different ports increased [51]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract may gradually return to fundamental pricing. The best buying point for the 01 contract needs to be waited for [52]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [53]. - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand - end and cost - end changes [54]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: As the peak season approaches, PE demand is slowly recovering. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and the subsequent trend depends on the demand recovery [56]. - **PVC** - **Market Review**: PVC supply, demand, export, inventory, and price data changed [57]. - **Core Logic**: PVC remains in a weak state, with the threat of large - scale delivery in August and weak fundamentals [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased [60][61]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound, and styrene's supply surplus has decreased. Short - term unilateral short - selling of styrene should be cautious [60][62]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened [64][65]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [66]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. The demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortages [66]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [67]. - **Core Logic**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15700 - 16100, with cost support and inventory pressure [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile correction. Higher - than - expected US inflation data dampened rate - cut expectations, and the optimistic global trade sentiment boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][5]. - The higher - than - expected US PPI data in July indicated persistent inflation pressure, and the labor market remained resilient, weakening the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. However, some senior officials still called for rate cuts, and monetary policy remained highly uncertain [3][5]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its potential impact on the geopolitical situation and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 775.80 | - 12.00 | - 1.52 | 197655 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 623.59 | 31.69 | 5.35 | 23234 | 198744 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3381.70 | - 76.50 | - 2.21 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9204 | - 74 | - 0.80 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 7762 | 212 | 2.81 | 452542 | 3447314 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.02 | - 0.49 | - 1.27 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices showed a volatile correction last week due to higher - than - expected US inflation data and optimistic global trade sentiment [3][5]. - The US PPI data in July and the labor market situation weakened the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, but there were still calls for rate cuts from some officials, and monetary policy was uncertain [3][5]. - After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the market is paying attention to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its impact on geopolitics and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver will be volatile in the short term. This week, key data such as the preliminary PMI data for July in the US and the Eurozone and the number of initial jobless claims in the US should be focused on, as well as events like the release of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and the possible US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [6]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February [8]. - US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, further frustrating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, a slight decrease of 3,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021. The number of continued claims dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering at a high level since 2021, indicating a still - robust labor market [8]. - US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing for the tenth consecutive month. The year - on - year increase was 3.9%, and the June data was revised up to 0.9%. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year, showing resilient consumer spending [8]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than the expected 62, and the sub - indices also declined. Both short - and long - term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs [9]. - The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US in August was 4.9%, erasing last month's improvement, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, higher than expected [9]. - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Eurozone in August was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. In Germany, it was 34.7, lower than the expected 39.8 and the previous value of 52.7 [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from last week, 21.74 tons from last month, and 110.40 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15071.31 tons, an increase of 80.51 tons from last week, 413.10 tons from last month, and 595.01 tons from last year [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes**: For gold futures on August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 288,115, non - commercial short positions were 58,630, and non - commercial net long positions were 229,485, a decrease of 7,565 from last week. For silver futures on the same date, non - commercial long positions were 66,252, non - commercial short positions were 21,984, and non - commercial net long positions were 44,268, a decrease of 6,390 from last week [11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as international political events, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4]. - For financial products, the stock index may continue to rise in the short - term, but the policy support effect may weaken later. The bond market may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of different products are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and international policies [14][15][16]. - In the metal market, precious metals may fluctuate due to inflation data and interest - rate expectations, while base metals are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural product market, different products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and international trade policies [28][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night - trading declined slightly. The US unemployment rate may rise in August, inflation has intensified, and the possibility of the Fed's September interest - rate cut has decreased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Inflation data has put pressure on gold and silver. However, the weakening employment market and long - term driving factors support the prices. They may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts [3][20]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [4][25]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US - Russia leaders' meeting made progress, and the US may promote a broader peace agreement. The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and plans to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading center [7]. - **Industry News**: Thirteen wealth - management companies have disclosed their semi - annual reports. Most of them are concentrating on public - offering and fixed - income products [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - Different overseas market indices and commodities have different price changes, including increases and decreases in stock indices, commodities, and currencies [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has risen, but the policy support may weaken later. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [11][12]. - **Treasury Bond**: The long - end bond price has fallen. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has decreased, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key variety analysis, pay attention to OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: The short - term trend is mainly bullish, with inventory accumulation and a relatively high operating rate [15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is weak. It may fluctuate and decline [16][17]. - **Polyolefin**: The market is in a stable stage after a rebound, and the terminal demand may pick up in the second half of August [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the price decline has stopped. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [19]. 3.4.3 Metal - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key variety analysis, they may show a volatile trend [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The price may have a callback risk and then rise if the inventory is digested [23]. 3.4.4 Black - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported, but the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Similar to the key variety analysis, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is restricted by various factors, and attention should be paid to future supply and iron - water production [26]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean production is expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish. The impact of the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping event has weakened [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is lower than expected, but the market is under short - term pressure [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory but may be dragged down by processing sugar [30]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen, and the domestic cotton price may be volatile and slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate has declined, and the 10 - contract price is at a deep discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of other shipping companies [32].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is reported at $3346, with trading volume in the Asian market shrinking by 23% compared to the average [1] - Recent inflation data exceeded market expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a reduction in related bets [1] - A meeting between Trump and Putin, although not resulting in substantial agreements, created a generally positive atmosphere [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump in Washington, accompanied by leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and the European Commission President, showcasing Western unity [2] - The geopolitical tension and easing are causing pulse-like fluctuations in gold prices, with traders advised to closely monitor developments [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding potential "dangerous terms" in the peace proposal from the U.S., which could lead to significant political upheaval in Ukraine [2] Group 3 - The medium-term outlook for gold remains unchanged, with monthly charts indicating a potential change in trend, suggesting that recent price increases may be for distribution before a larger decline [3] - Weekly price movements show continued high-level fluctuations, with a key support level at $3300 to watch for next week [3] - Short-term trends indicate a weakening of bullish momentum, with a recommendation for primarily short positions and selective long positions [3]

Group 1 - The trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures has significantly declined due to dual impacts of capital migration and supply pressure, with a notable drop in trading volume since mid-July as stock markets and commodities see increased activity and risk appetite rises [1] - Analysts suggest that if stock market sentiment cools or expectations for interest rate cuts increase, long-term bonds may experience a temporary rebound, although the overall bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state due to rising local government bond supply and weak institutional buying [1] - Short-term interest rate trends indicate two possible scenarios: either rates will fluctuate weakly at high levels with opportunities for slight rebounds, or rates will continue to rise but quickly retreat [1] Group 2 - As of August 15, 2025, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) has seen a slight increase of 0.02%, with a latest price of 106.33 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.75% over the past year [1] - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has a turnover rate of 4.67% during trading, with a transaction volume of 26.5156 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 5.23 billion yuan over the past year [2] - The ETF has shown a net value increase of 0.61% over the past six months, with a historical performance of 100% profitability over two years and a maximum drawdown of 0.21% in the last six months, which is the lowest among comparable funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in international relations, particularly the meeting between the US and Russia, and its implications for various commodities, including oil, precious metals, and steel. It highlights the impact of inflation data on market expectations and the ongoing adjustments in supply and demand dynamics across different sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: International News - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is set for August 18, with potential for a trilateral meeting involving Russia [1]. - The US government has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50%, affecting hundreds of derivative products [1]. Group 2: Commodity Focus Oil - SC night trading saw a slight decline, with no clear conclusions from the US-Russia talks. Initial jobless claims in the US decreased, but weak domestic demand may push the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August [2][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9% month-on-month, leading to reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2][13]. Precious Metals - Inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on gold and silver prices. The PPI for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, the highest in five months [3][18]. - The US Treasury Secretary indicated a significant likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, affecting market sentiment towards precious metals [3][18]. Steel - Steel mills are maintaining profitability, but supply pressures are beginning to show. Steel inventories continue to decline, and while exports face tariff challenges, the export of steel billets remains strong [4][24]. - The overall steel market is currently balanced, with no significant supply-demand conflicts, and is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the near term [4][24]. Group 3: Domestic Developments - The Hong Kong government is progressing towards establishing a commodity trading ecosystem, focusing on becoming an international gold trading center [6]. - Reports from various wealth management companies indicate growth in their product scales, with some companies experiencing significant increases in their asset management [7]. Group 4: Market Performance - The US stock indices showed mixed results, with a notable increase in financing balances, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by anti-involution policies [10]. - The bond market saw a rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7355%, influenced by inflation data and expectations of future rate cuts [11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicated a reduction in US soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in projected soybean production, which is expected to tighten inventories [26]. - The palm oil market is experiencing mixed signals due to production increases and export growth, while the market is also digesting the implications of anti-dumping measures on canola [27]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with a notable drop in container prices, indicating potential pressure on shipping rates as the market adjusts to seasonal demand [31].

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant drop this week but is now undergoing a correction, with a focus on testing the 3330 level again next week, indicating a potential for a breakout [1][3] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase around the 3300 level, with ongoing competition between bulls and bears, and no breakout observed this month [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3365 and 3396, while support levels are at 3330 and 3300, suggesting potential trading opportunities in both directions [3][4] Group 2 - Recent economic data, including strong PPI and inflation expectations, have contributed to the pressure on gold prices, with the Federal Reserve's cautious stance impacting interest rate expectations [3][4] - The outcome of the recent US-Russia meeting was inconclusive, but it may have future implications for market volatility, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions [4] - The importance of entry and exit points in gold investment is emphasized, along with the need for risk management to maximize profit opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply expectations for copper are further tightening, leading to a robust performance in copper prices. Additionally, the gold market is expected to benefit from rising inflation expectations in the U.S. due to tariff disturbances [1][38] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase this week [13] - Price fluctuations among non-ferrous metals varied, with some prices rising while others fell [23] 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Supply expectations are tightening, with global copper inventories increasing by 0.84 thousand tons. Chile's copper production growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced [2] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiments, with a slight increase in supply and moderate demand [2] 3. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Supply disruptions are causing lithium prices to rebound strongly, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15% to 83,000 CNY/ton [3] - **Metal Silicon**: The market remains stable with no significant changes in the fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] 4. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by U.S. inflation data, with a notable increase in the PPI to 3.7% in July, leading to expectations of continued upward pressure on gold prices [1][38] 5. Key Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady demand but is facing challenges due to high prices suppressing procurement and weak terminal orders [1][14] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a mild recovery with increased operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2][15] - Gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset despite a slight decrease in price, influenced by geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt [3][16] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply tightening and policy changes, with prices showing an upward trend [4][36] - The antimony market is stabilizing with potential for price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel industry increases and supply remains tight [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased by 0.08% to $9,760.00 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.73% to 79,100 yuan per ton [1][14] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.46% to $2,603.00 per ton on LME, with a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum [2][15] - Gold prices decreased by 0.36% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with increased holdings in SPDR Gold Trust [3][16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - Domestic copper inventory decreased to 125,600 tons, with a forecasted slight drop in operating rates due to weak demand [1][14] 2.2 Aluminum - Operating rates in the aluminum processing sector increased to 59.5%, indicating a mild recovery [2][15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. debt levels [3][16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - Rare earth prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and policy changes, with significant benefits expected for leading companies in the sector [4][36] - Antimony prices are stabilizing with potential for recovery driven by export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise due to increased demand from the steel industry and low inventory levels [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40]