Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have been dashed, with the upcoming CPI data becoming a critical factor in determining future rate cuts [1] - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased production, leading to a tug-of-war in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia ramping up production while U.S. output declines [1] - The dynamics of oil prices are shifting, raising questions about which entity will dominate the market direction, highlighting the need for strategic approaches to capitalize on price fluctuations [1]

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added, surpassing market expectations[9] - Nearly half of the new jobs were contributed by local governments, with 60,000 potentially affected by seasonal adjustments in the education sector[1] - The average wage growth in June was lower than expected, indicating a loosening labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The overall employment market appears weaker than suggested by the unemployment rate and job additions, with declining wage growth and PMI survey data[1] - Due to prior inventory replenishment effects and weakened demand, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be less significant than anticipated[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in September, October, and December 2025[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in goods prices due to tariffs, higher-than-expected tariff rates, significant energy price hikes from international conflicts, stricter immigration policies, and unexpected labor supply shortages in the U.S.[2]

Core Viewpoint - The main risk identified is that inflation in the Eurozone may remain persistently below 2% [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Eurozone economy is showing signs of weakness, which could lead to a correction in the euro to dollar exchange rate [1] - The timing and extent of any further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank remain uncertain [1]

金十数据7月7日讯，市场普遍预期澳洲联储7月8日将降息25个基点。路透调查显示，37位经济学家中有 31位预计周二将降息25个基点；LSEG数据也显示，澳洲联储周二降息的可能性为97.63%（几乎已板上 钉钉）。市场对降息25个基点的反应将取决于澳洲联储声明和布洛克随后新闻发布会的基调。在特朗普 7月9日的关税最后期限到来之前，两者都可能表现出谨慎的基调。澳洲联储的目标将是在不造成市场混 乱的情况下，采取对澳洲经济增长和通胀最有利的措施。 降息板上钉钉，澳洲联储周二料保持谨慎基调 ...

金十数据7月7日讯，据外媒报道，LSEG数据显示，英国央行8月7日降息25个基点至4%的概率升至 78.27%。此前，英国央行货币政策委员泰勒表示，与其冒险等待，不如现在降息。泰勒是在英国央行 行长贝利强调劳动力市场疲软之后发表了上述言论。 英国央行8月降息的可能性增加 ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to predictions of a rise to 4.3% [1] - Eurozone inflation for June was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, reaching the European Central Bank's medium-term target [2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that while inflation has reached the target, the task is not complete, and warned of geopolitical risks affecting economic stability [3] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates later this year, with officials indicating that a rate cut is appropriate based on data [2] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the vulnerabilities posed by the growth of stablecoins and their potential impact on monetary trust [4] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% amid economic challenges [7] Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - The Polish central bank forecasts inflation to sustainably return to the target range of 2.5%±1 percentage point by Q1 2026, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to 3.6% in 2025 [6] - The ECB is increasing its focus on climate-related economic risks, linking extreme weather events to inflation and GDP impacts [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that a weaker U.S. dollar may lead to increased capital flows into emerging markets, improving financing conditions and asset returns [8] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming central bank meetings and speeches for potential shifts in monetary policy, particularly regarding inflation and employment data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming meeting due to weaker-than-expected growth and inflation data [1] Inflation and Economic Data - Australia's overall inflation rate decreased from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May, approaching the central bank's target range lower limit of 2-3% [1] - The latest monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicates a decline in voluntary resignation rates, shifting wage negotiations towards job security, which may lead to a slowdown in wage growth beyond current expectations [1] Future Rate Expectations - Given the prevailing risks of declining growth and inflation, the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been increased by 25 basis points, with an expected cash rate of 3.1% by the end of the year [1] - Global tariff uncertainties persist, but both overall and core inflation have established a downward trend, likely maintaining around the midpoint of the 2-3% range in the coming quarters [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various economic factors, including U.S. fiscal policies, employment data, and geopolitical tensions, indicating a complex market environment for gold investments [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,310.52 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.79% [3]. - The COMEX gold price has also decreased to $3,319 per ounce, with a drop of 0.69% [3]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a decrease of 0.70% with a turnover rate of 1.16% and a transaction volume of 328 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June PMI data exceeded expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49 (expected 48.8) and the services PMI at 50.8 (expected 50.5) [3]. - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (expected 4.3%) [3]. Group 3: U.S. Fiscal Policies - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is controversial due to its potential to increase long-term debt and reduce federal assistance [3]. - The bill raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a potential increase in the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - Analysts predict that gold will continue to perform well in the first half of 2025, but may face challenges in maintaining upward momentum due to improved market risk sentiment and potential shifts in liquidity [4]. - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut remains high, influenced by ongoing economic pressures and political pressures from President Trump [5]. - The gold market is expected to enter a critical phase of supply and demand dynamics, with geopolitical factors contributing to price volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound last week, indicating potential for further upward movement despite some volatility [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $3272.74 per ounce, reached a low of $3247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3365.51 before closing at $3334.83, resulting in a weekly increase of $62.09 or 1.9% [1][3]. Economic Influences - The decline in the US dollar index and signs of economic contraction in the US have provided support for gold prices, with expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year [3][5]. - Market reactions to employment data and the potential for further economic stimulus have also contributed to the bullish sentiment for gold [3][5]. Upcoming Events - The focus for the upcoming week includes the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the July 9 deadline for tariff exemptions, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [5][9]. - A dovish tone from the Fed could lead to a weaker dollar and support for gold, while a focus on maintaining high interest rates could have the opposite effect [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential topping pattern for gold prices, with risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 if key support levels are breached [7][9]. - Current support levels to watch include the 60-day moving average and the 20-week moving average, with potential upward movement if prices stabilize above these levels [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3323 or $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 or $3350 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $36.85 or $36.70, with resistance at $37.20 or $37.60 [9].

美国财政部长贝森特：将由美联储理事决定是否降息。 ...