经济观察网根据美国媒体报道，外界普遍预期美联储将在9月16日至17日举行的货币政策会议上启动降 息进程。就业市场疲软增强了市场对此轮降息的预期。芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具预测，美联储 9月降息至少25个基点的可能性很高。此外，本周多国央行也将作出利率决定，涉及全球经济总量约五 分之二的经济体。预计美联储将降息25个基点，加拿大和挪威可能类似，而其他一些经济体可能会更加 谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle indicates that the key issue for the September FOMC meeting is whether the committee will suggest that this could be the first step towards consecutive rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic Outlook - The statement is expected to acknowledge a softening labor market [1] - It is anticipated that there will be no change in policy guidance [1] - The committee is not expected to endorse a rate cut in October [1]

库克是首位出任美联储理事的非洲裔女性，由时任总统拜登提名上任。 【新华社微特稿】美国特朗普政府14日再次向联邦上诉法院提出请求，要求允许其解雇美国联邦储备委 员会理事莉萨·库克。 美国司法部在最新提交的法律文件中称，库克给出的留任理由"毫无依据"。库克的律师13日在一份文件 中说，政府提供的解雇理由"不充分"，若允许总统在无正当理由情况下随意罢免理事，将危及美国经济 稳定和美联储独立性。 美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特8月公开指认库克曾同时把两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取更 优惠贷款利率，并向司法部提交相关刑事指控。特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除库克 职务。库克否认有任何不当行为，并于8月28日提起诉讼。 据美国媒体报道，库克曾在一份贷款估算文件中把上述两处房产中一处描述为"度假屋"，而非主要住 宅。在美联社获取的另一份文件中，库克把这处房产称为"第二套房"。美国司法部在最新提交的诉讼文 件中未对这一关键信息作出回应。 美联储定于16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储将开启新一轮降息。除非联邦上诉法院 宣布9日裁决无效，否则库克将参加美联储议息会议。（完）（林芮竹） 华盛顿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a potential for further cuts in October and December [14][18][19] - The US job market continues to show signs of weakness, with August non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend [12][13] - The technology sector remains a strong investment focus, particularly companies like Zoom and ServiceNow, which are expected to benefit from macroeconomic stability and AI integration [16][19] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has introduced uncertainty in Japanese economic policy, with potential implications for fiscal sustainability [24][26] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current interest rate stance in September but may consider rate hikes in the future due to persistent inflation [29][30] - Japanese stocks are expected to attract continued investment, particularly in companies like Kyocera and JX Metals, as the yen is projected to appreciate [30][33] Group 3: Indonesian Market Focus - The resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has raised concerns about Indonesia's long-term fiscal outlook, although the new minister, Airlangga Hartarto, aims to maintain fiscal health [46][47] - The Indonesian central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic challenges [47][48] - There is an expectation of strengthened economic cooperation between China and Indonesia, with potential investment opportunities in companies like Pakuwon and Surya Semesta [42][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent weak labor market data in the U.S. and President Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts have strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate its first rate cut of the year [1] - Gold prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, with a year-to-date increase of 39%, highlighting its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Market focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the extent and frequency of rate cuts," with widespread predictions of consecutive rate cuts in September and October [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, after reaching a historical high of $3,674, gold has not shown significant reversal signals, indicating that bullish sentiment remains dominant [3] - Current gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, suggesting that buying pressure has not weakened [3] - As the interest rate decision approaches, both bulls and bears may adopt a wait-and-see approach, with short-term expectations leaning towards consolidation, focusing on support at the 3,620-3,615 range and resistance at 3,660 [3] Group 3 - A trading suggestion is provided to buy on a pullback to the 3,625-3,620 range, with a stop loss at 3,615 and a target of 3,655-3,660, emphasizing the importance of setting strict stop-loss orders [4]

今日周一（9月15日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于828.44附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报832.48元/ 克，涨幅.021%，最高触及835.34元/克，最低下探828.42元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 上周，初请失业金人数攀升至26.3万，远超经济学家预期，此乃就业增长放缓之先兆。过往四个月间， 美国月均新增就业岗位尚不足10万个；另据美国劳工统计局修正数据，截至3月份的一年间，实际新增 就业岗位较此前预估少了近百万之巨。展望后续走势，罗森伯格指出，因招聘步伐放缓且估值偏高，市 场或已步入下滑通道，抑或正濒临这一边缘。除劳动力市场隐忧外，房地产市场亦令人担忧，其已然成 为拖累经济的要害所在。当前住房总价值高达48万亿美元，约为危机前的两倍有余。有知名人士警示， 房价一旦下跌，或将触发负面财富效应，进而削弱消费者信心与支出意愿。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 国内金价当前正处于高位震荡格局之中，虽整体呈现多头趋势，却并未盲目持续刷新高点，而是陷入了 反复震荡的走势。截至上周四、周五，沪金最高触及838附近，融通金亦攀升至830附近。 展望本周行情 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250915 降息前的普涨——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 09 月 15 日 首先，关税对美国通胀传导程度仍旧可控。美国 8 月 PPI 同比增长 2.6%， 为 6 月以来新低，远低于预期的 3.3%，前值从 3.3%下修为 3.1%；同时， 美国 8 月 CPI 也基本符合预期，CPI 同比 2.9%，持平预期，较前值 2.7% 小幅回升。美国 8 月 CPI 环比 0.4%，略高于预期的 0.3%，前值 0.2%。 PPI 下降为 9 月美联储提供了支持降息的依据，CPI 的温和表现则是巩 固了降息 25bps 降息的幅度。 其次，甲骨文财报超预期，给美股科技注入"强心剂"。甲骨文财报受 到 AI 驱动合同量大幅增长，第一季度创纪录 3320 亿美元订单金额，不 仅刷新软件行业历史最高签约记录，同时标志着其商业模式的根本性转 型。与此同时，甲骨文又宣布与 OpenAI 达成 3000 亿美元新合约，积极 AI 消息的频度和强度持续提升，不断推高科技狂热潮。 短期来看，我们认为美股以继续震荡上行为主。美国就业高频数据（初 请失业金人数上升）+基本符合预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is entering a "central bank super week", with the market generally expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time to address the weak labor market. Gold and silver may show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches, while copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation [1][2][3]. - The power equipment industry has a good growth outlook, with the traditional power equipment aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 6% from 2025 - 2026, and the new - energy equipment expecting stable or increasing revenue [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: US stocks closed mixed. The Dow Jones fell 0.59%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.05%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.44% to a new high. Vaccine stocks declined, while most large - tech stocks rose [4]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang deployed measures to promote private investment, including expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening support [5]. - **Industry News**: Three departments issued a work plan for the power equipment industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming for stable growth, with specific targets for traditional and new - energy equipment [6]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the daily return data of multiple overseas products from September 11th to 12th, such as the FTSE China A50 futures, the US dollar index, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. [7] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock indexes were mixed. In China, the stock index showed differentiation in the previous trading day. The market is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of treasury bonds strengthened, but due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, economic data, and the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, the treasury - bond futures prices are expected to remain weak [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.59% on Friday night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude - oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel daily production cut may be partially or fully restored [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.17% on Friday night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [12]. - **Rubber**: The natural - rubber futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [13]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market remained weak. The inventory of PE and PP is gradually being digested, and the focus is on the support from downstream procurement [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures oscillated, and the soda - ash futures continued to consolidate. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the autumn consumption and policy changes [15]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold is consolidating at a high level, and silver is strengthening. Inflation data and employment data strengthen the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. Gold has clear long - term drivers, and gold and silver may show a strong trend, but short - term profit - taking adjustments should be noted [2][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.31% on the weekend night session. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. Multiple factors coexist, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [3][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.02% on the weekend night session. The smelting profit has turned positive, and the output is expected to increase. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, while the demand for ternary materials is expected to decline and that for lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase. The inventory is being depleted faster. The futures price may maintain high volatility, and the price is under pressure [19]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were strong on Friday night. The steel market shows a differentiation between building materials and plates. The iron - water output is recovering, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [20]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron - ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is being depleted rapidly. The market is expected to be strong and volatile [21]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of steel billets is strong, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. There is a differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the short - term market is expected to adjust [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were weak at night. The USDA report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, and the domestic market may be weak and volatile [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The soybean - oil futures rose slightly at night, while the palm - oil and rapeseed - oil futures were weak. The MPOB report shows an increase in Malaysian palm - oil inventory, and the impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policies needs to be monitored [25]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but is dragged down by import and new - season supply. The short - term trend is bearish [26]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new - cotton purchases and the traditional peak - season demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC futures were weak on Friday, falling 5.27%. The SCFI European - line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is accelerating its decline. The short - term trend depends on the decline rate of the spot freight rate [28][29]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose on September 15, with the lithium battery sector strengthening and new energy vehicle stocks performing actively [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) rose over 1.5%, with leading stocks including Bilibili, NIO, Hua Hong, Li Auto, BYD, and Alibaba [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF (159323) saw an increase of over 2%, with top-performing stocks such as Zhejiang Shibao, Nexperia, and Ganfeng Lithium [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the market has fully priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of cumulative rate cuts of about three times by 2025, while the main divergence lies in whether a rate cut will occur in October [1] - The employment market's performance will be a crucial determining factor, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unless the employment market slows more than anticipated, which could increase the probability of three cuts within the year [1] - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the dovish stance from Powell has led to a depreciation of the US dollar and a decline in US Treasury yields, alleviating liquidity pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [2]