Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation across various sectors, including demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market has a complex performance with new home sales having a mixed trend and second - hand home sales mostly declining. The automotive consumption is warming up, industrial production is stable with strong infrastructure construction, and there are specific changes in investment, trade, prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - New home sales: The weekly new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 3.498 million square meters, up 2% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. There were differences among different city - tiers, with second - tier cities seeing a large increase in new home sales [1][11]. - Second - hand home sales: The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities mostly decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction areas of second - hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 10%, 4%, 5%, and 18% month - on - month respectively, and 14%, 7%, 9%, and 22% year - on - year respectively [28][30]. - Automotive consumption: It continued to warm up. As of the week ending July 4, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 18.4% month - on - month, and were basically the same as the same period last year. The national movie box office increased by 17.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased by 6.6% month - on - month, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [39]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces and rebar decreased, while the operating rate of PTA, polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and petroleum asphalt plants increased, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction [2][46]. - Downstream: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles decreased, but the absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2]. 3. Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar improved, with the price increasing by 0.9% month - on - month to 3230.6 points, and the apparent consumption increasing by 2.3% month - on - month to 2.25 million tons as of the week ending July 4 [63]. - Cement: The cement price decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 111.5 points as of the week ending July 4. As of the week ending June 27, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.8%, and the cement storage ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.8% [63]. 4. Trade - Export: The port container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month as of the week ending July 4, but was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The freight rates of European and Southeast Asian routes increased, while those of the US West and East routes decreased. The BDI index continued to decline, dropping 10.3% month - on - month [77]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased, and the CICFI composite index was 685.4 points, a slight decrease of 0.6% month - on - month [77]. 5. Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The pork price increased by 0.8% month - on - month, while the prices of eggs, vegetables, and fruits decreased by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.8% month - on - month respectively [5][89]. - PPI: Commodity prices were differentiated. The metal price index increased, the Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.8% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price increased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][96]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next - week issuance plan: From July 7 to July 11, the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 268.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 58.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan with a net financing of - 80.1 billion yuan, the issuance of local bonds is 231.8 billion yuan with a net financing of 107.8 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - bank bonds is 37 billion yuan with a net financing of 31 billion yuan [107]. - Issuance progress: As of July 4, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds this year was 1.8246 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 91.2%. The issuance of new general bonds was 452 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 56.5%. The issuance of new special bonds was 2.1635 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49.2% [6][109][112]. 7. Policy Week Observation - Central Financial and Economic Commission's 6th meeting: On July 1, Xi Jinping chaired the meeting to discuss promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [118]. - Central Bank's operation: In June, the central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond transactions, marking the sixth consecutive month of no such operations [119]. - China's PMI data: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of the economic prosperity level [120]. - US "Big and Beautiful" Act: On July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [121]. - Trump's tariff statement: On July 4 local time, Trump said that countries will start paying new tariffs on August 1, but did not name specific countries [122]. - Nanjing's housing provident fund policy: Nanjing adjusted its housing provident fund policy, including expanding the scope of off - site loans, relaxing the conditions for off - site housing purchase withdrawals, and extending the maximum loan term for existing housing [123]. - Hubei's real - estate policy: On July 3, Jingmen, Hubei issued policies to stabilize the real - estate market, including promoting the sales of underground parking spaces and commercial and office buildings, and promoting the spot - house sales from January 1, 2026 [124].

Core Points - The meeting focused on implementing Xi Jinping's important discussions and directives regarding regional coordinated development, aiming to elevate the level of regional coordination in Shaanxi province [1][2] - Emphasis was placed on aligning with national strategies for regional coordination, optimizing regional layout, and promoting collaborative development among different areas [2] Group 1 - The meeting was chaired by Zhao Yide, who highlighted the importance of Xi Jinping's strategies for regional development since the 18th National Congress [1] - Zhao Yide called for a unified approach to align thoughts and actions with the central government's decisions to support Shaanxi's development [1] - The meeting included discussions on enhancing the quality of urban integration and promoting innovation in the Xi'an metropolitan area [2] Group 2 - Zhao Gang emphasized the need for leading industries to drive technological and industrial innovation, particularly in the energy and chemical sectors in northern Shaanxi [2] - The focus was also on supporting green and circular development in southern Shaanxi, enhancing regional特色产业 [2] - The meeting aimed to create a strong collaborative effort to promote regional coordinated development through improved mechanisms and responsibilities [2]

Economic Outlook - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, identifies ten highlights for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year [1] - The willingness of foreign investors to allocate assets in China is increasing, influenced by the anticipated interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and a stable CPI [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a strong performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on technology sectors and new economy enterprises [1] Fiscal and Policy Support - Fiscal policy is likely to be strengthened in response to weakening external demand, focusing on efficiency and supporting key expenditures to achieve economic growth targets [1] - Policies aimed at boosting service consumption are expected to accelerate, with a shift from "needs" to "wants" in consumer behavior [2] - Supportive measures are being implemented to release domestic demand potential, including interest rate adjustments and revitalizing real estate [2] Industry and Technological Development - The acceleration of industrial upgrades is highlighted as a main line for economic growth, with significant policy support for emerging industries [1] - Continued breakthroughs in technology are anticipated, with increased support for research and development across various fields [1] - The development of new productive forces is guiding the construction of Chinese-style modernization, with an emphasis on building a unified national market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a rally despite overall market fluctuations, driven by environmental regulations and improving demand conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The steel ETF (515210) rose by 1.67%, leading the market with a trading volume of nearly 104 million yuan [1]. - Key holdings such as Lingang Co. and Liugang Co. have seen consecutive trading limits, while other stocks like Shougang Co. and Hesteel Co. increased by nearly 5% [1]. - Since September 2, 2024, the steel ETF has gained 31.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tangshan has intensified its environmental production restrictions, with rumors of measures from July 4 to July 15 [3]. - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting, although the agenda remains undisclosed [3]. - Steel inventory among key enterprises increased by 420,000 tons to 16.21 million tons in mid-June, but decreased by 140,000 tons compared to the same period last month [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The operating rate of H-beam steel producers rose by 3.23 percentage points to 70.97%, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 56.83% [4]. - Demand is expected to improve marginally due to supportive real estate policies and stable infrastructure investment, while supply constraints are becoming more pronounced [4]. - The profit margin for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 31.69 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive gross profit for the steel industry was 281 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.45% [4].

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

标本兼治解决问题，"标"是无序价格战，"本"是不正当竞争和地方保护主义，与16年 供改有明显不同 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 作为党中央领导财经工作的决策议事协调机构，中央财经委员会会议的规格和重要性很高。 相比部署 全面工作的政治局会议，财经委会议的召开频率更低、议题更聚焦。政治局会议部署经济工作一般是每 年的4、7、12月+不定期，年均3-4次；相比之下，十九届财经委5年间共召开11次会议，二十届财经 委至今召开过6次会议，年均2次。 更聚焦的议题有助于我们了解决策层的当下关切，对下一阶段的政策方向有重要指引。 例如，2022年 4月的十九届财经委第十一次会议，研究"全面加强基础设施建设"问题，随后基建投资一改2018- 2021年年均增长2%的低迷状态，2022年以来年均增速接近10%，中央财政通过"两重"（重大工程、 重点项目）投入了大量资金。再比如，2024年2月的二十届财经委第四次会议，研究"两新"（大规模 设备更新和消费品以旧换新）问题，可以说是"两新"政策在中央层面部署的起点。 7月1日的二十届财经委第六次会议，研究的问题之一是"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"，标志着改革 再提速。 "构建全国统 ...

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of integrating into the national unified market, focusing on industrial transformation and the development of new productive forces [1] - The grain and material reserve system in the province is committed to high-quality development and safety, ensuring food security and market stability [1] - The provincial grain and material reserve bureau has prepared for summer grain procurement, with plans for 28 million tons of available storage capacity and 500 billion yuan in procurement funds [1] Group 2 - The province aims to leverage its unique advantages in wheat resources and logistics to enhance the grain supply chain and market competitiveness [2] - Efforts are being made to establish a wheat trading center and a big data center to optimize grain resource allocation and promote high-quality development [2] - The province is focusing on brand development and promotion in the grain industry, including initiatives to enhance the visibility of local grain and oil brands [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3461.15 points, up 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.90% to 2164.09 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.3098 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 70 billion yuan from the previous day [2] Group 2: Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector saw significant gains, with the Shenwan Consumer Electronics Index increasing by 4.40%, and major companies like Hon Hai Precision Industry (Industrial Fulian) hitting the daily limit with a trading volume of 7.812 billion yuan [2] - Apple Inc. shares rose by 2.22% in the U.S. market, with a cumulative rebound of nearly 6% over the last three trading days, following a rating upgrade from Jefferies from "Underperform" to "Hold" based on expected growth in iPhone sales [2][3] Group 3: Future Product Launches - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Apple's first foldable iPhone, produced by Foxconn, is expected to begin production in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025 [3] - Apple is anticipated to release multiple smart glasses starting in 2027, with initial shipments expected to exceed 3 million units [3] Group 4: Industry Trends - China Galaxy Securities noted that the consumer electronics industry is driven by "policy + AI" dual forces, with government subsidies revitalizing the mid-range consumer market and AI technology enhancing product intelligence [3] - The demand for wearable products is increasing, with global AI smart glasses sales reaching 600,000 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 216% [4] Group 5: Steel and Solar Sectors - The steel and solar sectors have been active, with policies promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [5] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to improve product quality and manage competition in the steel and cement industries [5] Group 6: Market Sentiment - The A-share market continues to show a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [6] - Analysts suggest that with supportive macro policies and emerging industry highlights, market risk appetite is likely to continue rising [6]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a nationwide unified market is a strategic initiative for China's economic reform, emphasizing the role of the futures market as a crucial component in this process [1][4]. Group 1: Role of the Futures Market - The futures market serves as an important venue for resource allocation and is a key tool in building the nationwide unified market [2]. - It acts as a "barometer" for price discovery, providing a basis for value consensus across the unified market, exemplified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper futures pricing becoming a benchmark for domestic spot trading [2]. - The futures market offers effective risk management tools, ensuring stability for large-scale transactions across regions and cycles, which is essential as the unified market expands [2]. Group 2: Resource Allocation and Market Integration - The futures market functions as an intelligent hub for resource allocation, guiding the optimal distribution of production factors nationwide based on current supply and demand as well as future market expectations [2]. - It promotes the coordination of industries, such as the apple industry in Shaanxi and Shandong, by providing unified price signals that help avoid regional surpluses or shortages [2]. Group 3: Standardization and Market Rules - The futures market acts as a practical platform for institutional unification, providing a testing ground for the integration of national market rules through its standardized contracts and trading regulations [3]. - The development of the futures market encourages the standardization of the spot market in areas such as quality standards and logistics, exemplified by the impact of rebar and crude oil futures on industry standards [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite its benefits, the futures market faces challenges such as insufficient liquidity for certain products and low participation from real enterprises [3]. - Future efforts should focus on enriching the futures product system, particularly with more agricultural and energy-related products, and improving market participant structures to enhance the utilization of futures tools [3].

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to build a unified national market to promote high-quality development and adapt to the new development pattern [1] - The potential of China's domestic market, driven by its 1.4 billion population, is hindered by industry monopolies and local protectionism, which obstructs effective production and distribution [1] - The persistent issues in implementing the unified market strategy are linked to local tax structures that prioritize local enterprises, creating challenges in breaking down regional barriers [2] Group 2 - The importance of consumption in driving development is increasing, especially in the context of the AI era, where a small percentage of the population engages in innovation while the majority participates in consumption [3] - Structural adjustments to the tax system are necessary to adapt to changes brought by AI and to facilitate the construction of a unified national market, shifting taxation from production to sales [3] - Implementing sales-based taxation would incentivize local governments to eliminate barriers to cross-regional trade, thereby enhancing the alignment of supply and domestic demand and unlocking the potential of the vast domestic market [3]