Report Title - "Asphalt: Factory Inventory Continues to Accumulate, Sentiment is Weak" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows weak sentiment with factory inventory accumulation [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is neutral with a value of 0 [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,034 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the overnight closing price was 3,022 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.40%. For BU2601, the yesterday's closing price was 3,036 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%, and the overnight closing price was 3,022 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46%. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts decreased [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The refinery operating rate was 33.50%, down 0.36% from the previous period, and the refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, up 0.60% [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 12) was 16 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 12 - 01 inter - period spread was - 2 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was - 300, down 40; the East China - South China spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Market Information - **Production**: In the week of 20251104 - 20251110, the domestic asphalt weekly total output was 52.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons (0.8%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 tons (0.2%). The cumulative output from January to November was 2715.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 310.7 tons (12.9%) [15] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 68.8 tons, up 0.4% from November 6. The inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 116.7 tons, down 3.5% from November 6 [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures on November 11, 2025, including trends such as high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and inventory - related impacts [2]. - For different products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy are considered to form corresponding views and suggestions [12][13]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a high - level oscillation market supported by overseas blending oil demand; PTA has fair demand but supply pressure, showing a strong - biased oscillation; MEG has a large inventory increase, with a weak unilateral trend [2][12][13]. - **Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6852元/吨, 涨72元, 涨幅1.06%; PTA主力收盘价4704元/吨, 涨40元, 涨幅0.86%; MEG主力收盘价3953元/吨, 涨11元, 涨幅0.28% [5]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, continue to monitor the impact on short - process device operation; for PTA, short the processing fee when it is high; for MEG, conduct a high - selling reverse spread on the monthly spread [12][13]. Rubber - **Market Trends**: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the spot price of some varieties has also risen [14][15]. - **Data**: The rubber main contract's daily - session closing price was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the night - session closing price was 15,160 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan [15]. - **News**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory also had corresponding changes [16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation. Although the decline rate has slowed down, in the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene will drive the price of synthetic rubber down [18][21]. - **Data**: The daily - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the trading volume was 114,254 lots, up 7936 lots [18]. - **News**: As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory decreased, and the butadiene market was slightly weak on November 10 [19][21]. Asphalt - **Market Trends**: Factory inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment is low. The futures price has declined slightly [22]. - **Data**: The closing price of BU2512 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of BU2601 was 3,036 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [22]. - **News**: From November 4 - 10, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased slightly; as of November 10, the factory inventory increased by 0.4%, and the social inventory decreased by 3.5% [36]. LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The profit in the monomer segment is compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The market price continues to decline slightly [37]. - **Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 6802 yuan/ton, with no change; the trading volume was 298,530 lots, and the position increased by 930 lots [37]. - **Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillates, the downstream demand has rigid support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened, and the supply - side contradiction is not significant in the short - term [37]. PP - **Market Trends**: The trend is weak. Multiple factors such as trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly put downward pressure on the price [40][41]. - **Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 276,564 lots, and the position decreased by 13,051 lots [40]. - **Analysis**: The end of the downstream peak - season restocking and low - price restocking factors, along with continuous weak demand and high supply, suppress the price [41]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: The cost provides support, and the valuation is being repaired. However, the high - output and high - inventory pattern continues, and the price rebound space is limited [44][45]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price was 2349 yuan/ton, and the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton [44]. - **Analysis**: The alumina industry's impact on caustic soda demand is basically offset, and the cost increase can only lead to a low - level valuation repair [45]. Pulp - **Market Trends**: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the market sentiment in the downstream finished paper market has improved to some extent [46][49]. - **Data**: The daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the trading volume was 241,489 lots, up 61,509 lots [48]. - **News**: The futures market is driven by funds, but whether the spot price can continue to rise depends on actual transactions. The price of the downstream living paper market is expected to oscillate [49][50]. Glass - **Market Trends**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market price continues to weaken slightly [51][52]. - **Data**: The closing price of FG601 was 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.73%; the trading volume was 2,327,951 lots, and the position increased by 196,321 lots [52]. - **Analysis**: The futures market oscillates downward, and downstream players purchase at low prices [52]. Methanol - **Market Trends**: The driving force is downward, but the downward space is gradually narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is under pressure [54][56]. - **Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,101 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the trading volume was 1,283,246 lots, and the position increased by 14,769 lots [54]. - **Analysis**: The supply increases after device复产, imports are abundant, and the MTO industry's profit is compressed, but the cost - side support gradually strengthens [56][57]. Urea - **Market Trends**: It oscillates. The spot trading activity has weakened, and the futures price is under pressure from incremental warehouse receipts [58][60][61]. - **Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 174,463 lots, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots [59]. - **Analysis**: The domestic supply is high, but the export policy eases the downward pressure. The 01 - contract has a strong pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [61]. Styrene - **Market Trends**: It oscillates in the short - term. The contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing sentiment of funds at low prices [62][63]. - **Data**: The closing price of styrene 2512 was 6,315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the EB - BZ spread was 1020, up 20 [62]. - **Analysis**: The pure benzene is in a weak pattern, and the domestic supply is high, but the short - term market sentiment is boosted [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market changes little. The market is oscillating strongly, with the light - soda price rising and the market sentiment improving [64]. - **Data**: The closing price of SA2601 was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.49%; the trading volume was 1,542,782 lots, and the position decreased by 29,768 lots [64]. - **Analysis**: The coal price rises, the supply decreases slightly, the downstream demand is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be firm [64]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Trends**: For LPG, the demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; for propylene, the supply - demand gap narrows, and there is short - term support [67][68]. - **Data**: The closing price of PG2512 was 4,323 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the closing price of PL2601 was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [68]. - **News**: On November 10, 2025, the CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant device maintenance plans [73][74]. PVC - **Market Trends**: The trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is under pressure [76]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price was 4614 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4520 yuan/ton, the basis was - 94, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 295 [76]. - **Analysis**: The "using soda to supplement chlorine" pattern in the profit chain is difficult to sustain, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [76]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil shows a short - term oscillating trend, and the night - session is still weak; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the external spot market rebounds slightly [79]. - **Data**: The closing price of FU2512 was 2,688 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the closing price of LU2512 was 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [79]. - **Analysis**: The market shows different trends in price, trading volume, and spread [79]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: It is in an oscillating market. The futures price shows different changes, and the freight rate index also has corresponding fluctuations [81]. - **Data**: The closing price of EC2512 was 1,778.2, down 1.84%; the SCFIS European route index was 1,504.80, with a weekly increase of 24.5% [81]. - **Analysis**: The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and freight rates [81].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity markets experienced notable price movements on November 10, with various sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton futures showing increases, while Robusta coffee futures saw a slight decline [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - ICE raw sugar futures rose by 1.13% [1] - ICE white sugar futures increased by 0.84% [1] Group 2: Coffee Market - ICE Arabica coffee futures increased by 1.99% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a rise of 2.14% [1] - Robusta coffee futures decreased by 0.30% [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - New York cocoa futures rose by 0.91% [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 0.23% [1] Group 4: Cotton Market - ICE cotton futures rose by 0.94% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, cost, and inventory factors [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a volatile trend today, and the basis of cotton spot sales remained stable. The cost of new cotton provides some support to the futures price, but there is hedging pressure for significant price increases. As of November 6, the cumulative national cotton processing was 319.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.5 million tons. The cotton yarn market changed little, with demand remaining stable. The improvement in Sino - US relations also supports cotton prices. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market is focusing on the next season's production estimate. Based on remote sensing data, the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded. In the Shandong apple production area, the apple acquisition is nearing the end. The price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of general and semi - first - grade apples declined slightly. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market trading logic has shifted to sales expectations. Due to the high acquisition price and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell, the de - stocking speed may be affected. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. An overall bearish approach is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan production area in China has entered the low - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. Rubber inventories increased, and cost support was weak. The market sentiment improved. An oversold rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices followed suit. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. Overseas阔叶浆 quotes are strong, and some traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream procurement willingness is average. The pulp valuation is still low, with medium - to - long - term improvement expectations. Recently, the willingness of funds to push up prices is strong. Buying on dips is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price was weak. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The external quote is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. The demand from port shipments is above 60,000 cubic meters, which supports prices. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (bean No. 1): ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soybean oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soybean meal: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as policies, trade negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors. Investors should pay attention to relevant information and changes in the market to find potential investment opportunities and avoid risks [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean (bean No. 1) - The price of soybean No. 1 shows high - level fluctuations. The resumption of soybean auction by CGSCO has cooled market sentiment. The purchase of high - protein soybeans has price advantages. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans are increasing, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is consolidating. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal futures M2601 fluctuates strongly. After the Sino - US trade negotiation eases, the price of US soybeans is in a wide - range shock. The domestic soybean crushing volume in October was about 8.6 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.7 million tons in November. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded slightly. The import cost has increased, and the crushing profit has been repaired. It is expected that the soybean supply will be basically sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal rebounds from a low level. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased last week, and the soybean oil inventory decreased. The crushing profit of near - month shipment of soybeans is not good. Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased slightly. The MPOB report in November is bearish. The high - frequency data in early November shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from November 1 - 5, and the export demand declined from November 1 - 10. Short - term attention should be paid to the high - inventory pressure of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions and trading volumes of domestic rapeseed futures' main contracts have decreased. It is a pattern of strong oil and weak meal today. The price increase of rapeseed meal is mainly due to the increase in overseas oilseed prices and the improvement of import expectations. The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. The inventories of rapeseed meal and granulated powder are slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory has declined more than expected. The short - term strategy for domestic rapeseed products is to wait and see [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continue to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The new corn in the Northeast has a small increase in volume, and the price is slightly stronger. The on - site volume of Shandong has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The import of US corn still has no price advantage. The new corn in the Northeast will continue to be listed, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is consolidating. The futures price has rebounded after reaching the bottom. The technical chart shows that the downward momentum is insufficient. The overall slaughter rhythm may slow down, and the seasonal demand is increasing. The pig price may enter a seasonal rebound stage. In the long - term, the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month contracts of egg futures led the rise before, but the spot sentiment weakened over the weekend, and the near - month contracts led the decline on Monday. The follow - up trading idea can be to try shorting on rallies. The industry's production capacity is still at a high level, and the sentiment of culling is increasing marginally. Attention should be paid to the performance of egg spot and vegetable prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US government was "shut down" for 40 days, and the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but the domestic port inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks; the molten iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. However, the positive macro - situation provided some support for the current weak market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 765.00 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan; the position volume was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 33,799 lots, up 1,644 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.88 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 69 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.05 US dollars/ton, down 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.20, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 832 yuan/ton. The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) were 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,104.00, up 41.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.42 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.56%, down 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.41%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.95%, down 1.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.77%, up 0.96% [2] Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore were 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the domestic corn market showed a "rising first, then falling" oscillating trend. At the beginning of the month, due to continuous rainy weather, the harvest and listing progress of new - season corn was slower than expected, with tight market supply supporting the price. In the middle and late - month, as the weather cleared, the supply pressure emerged as new grain volume increased and downstream demand was cautious. The overall price center shifted down compared to September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The opening price of the corn futures c2601 contract in October was 2,118 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 2,152 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month's closing price. The position was 931,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7,567,700 lots [4]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - In the monthly corn futures market, prices rose more than they fell. The total position was 1,772,414 lots, and the trading volume was 13,721,901 lots [8]. 1.3 Associated Market Analysis - In October, the trading volume of corn options was 2,203,616 lots, the total position was 233,188 lots, with a decrease of 130,217 lots. The total number of exercises in the month was 57,481 [10]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The basis in domestic corn - producing areas first strengthened and then weakened. In the first half - month, continuous rainy weather led to tight spot supply and a strong spot price, while the futures price was relatively weak. In the second half - month, as the weather cleared, new grain volume increased, the spot price fell, and the basis narrowed [11]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of corn futures warehouse receipts first remained stable and then increased, but the overall level was at a historical low. The low level in October supported the futures market, but the end - of - month increase indicated that spot pressure was being transmitted to the futures market [12]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics and relevant institutions released the 2025/26 corn production forecast. Concerns about new - grain quality emerged due to rainy weather. Relevant institutions such as Sinograin signaled to enter the market for purchases. Imported grains continued to arrive at ports, affecting domestic prices. Market attention focused on the start - up of drying towers and farmers' selling attitudes, and logistics costs affected the grain circulation pattern [13][14]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The corn futures c2601 contract showed a "bottom - hunting and rebounding" trend. After the National Day, the price fell to a new low due to supply pressure. In the middle and late - month, it bottomed out and rebounded as it fell below the planting cost and with policy support. The MACD indicator showed declining downward momentum and accumulating upward momentum [15]. 4. Market Outlook - Northeast and North China are about to enter the peak period of new - season corn listing. Farmers' selling willingness will be the key to the spot price. Downstream demand is weak, and it's difficult to drive price increases independently. In the short - term, the price of the corn C2601 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. Future attention should be paid to farmers' selling attitudes, policy - based purchases, and the impact of weather on logistics [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is moderately strong in the medium term [1] - PTA: Supply pressure persists, high - level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads [1] - MEG: Supply pressure remains high, trend is weak [1] Core Views - PX: The unilateral trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG. Despite the restart of some devices and the high operating rate, the cost support and demand factors make the unilateral strong pattern clear [5]. - PTA: With positive demand feedback and cost support, it should be regarded as unilaterally strong. Although the inventory accumulation in November narrows, the supply is still in excess after some device overhauls end, and the processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is short - term oscillating weakly. The supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads. Although the supply pressure eases slightly in the short term, it remains in the long term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - A 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in the southwest has been shut down for maintenance since early November, with a total of 600,000 tons of production shut down at the factory [3]. - The price increase in the previous trading day was mainly driven by increased stock market activity. The sudden increase in market activity may be due to the entry of external funds [3]. - The PX market is currently quite stable fundamentally, and there is no obvious weakness in the short term. The main support for PX comes from China's higher PTA production capacity, especially from new factories launched this year [3]. - Formosa Chemicals & Fiber Corp. restarted its 720,000 - ton/year PX production line in Mailiao on November 4 after completing the planned turnaround, and has been operating at about 70% capacity since then. A 350,000 - ton/year production line has been shut down since early April for planned turnaround [5]. Futures Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6780 | - 40 | - 0.59% | | PTA Main | 4664 | - 24 | - 0.51% | | MEG Main | 3942 | 18 | 0.46% | | PF Main | 6214 | - 30 | - 0.48% | | SC Main | 460.6 | 0.2 | 0.04% | | Calendar Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX1 - 5 | 0 | 14 | - 14 | | PTA1 - 5 | - 64 | - 62 | - 2 | | MEG1 - 5 | - 77 | - 80 | 3 | | PF12 - 1 | - 38 | - 34 | - 4 | | SC11 - 12 | 0.9 | 1 | - 0.1 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 825.67 | 826 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4572 | 4540 | 32 | | MEG Spot | 4013 | 3978 | 35 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 581.75 | 575.75 | 6 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 63.61 | 63.66 | - 0.05 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 250.25 | 238.5 | 11.75 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.65 | 141.93 | - 21.29 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 259.02 | 267.68 | - 8.66 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 54.06 | 99.6 | - 45.54 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [5] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - Supply: Fushun Petrochemical and Formosa Plastics' devices restarted, and the domestic and Asian PX operating rates reached new highs. Yulong Petrochemical was sanctioned, resulting in weak MX prices. Although the short - process profit is strong, the operating rate has not actually recovered [5]. - Demand: Some PTA devices were shut down or had reduced loads, and the PTA load declined. The stock prices of polyester leaders rose sharply, but the actual probability of production reduction is low [5]. PTA - Supply: Some factories without supporting facilities reduced their loads, and the inventory accumulation in November narrowed. After the overhaul of some devices such as Xin凤鸣 ended, the supply was still in excess [6]. - Demand: The polyester load remained high (91.5% in November), and the rigid demand for PTA was acceptable [6]. MEG - Supply: The overall operating rate of MEG declined this week, with multiple devices shut down or reducing loads. However, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device is about to restart, and the long - term supply pressure remains due to concentrated imports [6]. - Demand: Downstream weaving orders weakened locally, and the operating rate declined. However, the polyester load remained high in the short term, providing some demand support [6]. Valuation and Strategy - PX: The PXN spread has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [5]. - PTA: The processing fee of the 01 contract has reached a new low of 219 Yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee is 173 Yuan/ton. The processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The pig market has high supply pressure in the short - term, with prices having limited upward movement. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong due to expected capacity reduction [4][48]. - The egg market shows a marginal improvement in the short - term supply - demand situation, but the ample supply restricts price increases. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease as the inventory growth rate slows down [5][69]. - The corn market is in a phase of shock bottom - building during the new crop listing period. Short - term prices are expected to be weak, while in the long - term, there is strong cost support [6][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the national spot price was 11.82 yuan/kg, down 0.67 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg. The futures price of Live Pig 2501 closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the 01 contract was 175 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton from last week [4][11][48]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The average weekly slaughter weight was 128.3 kg, up 0.61 kg from last week. The proportion of small and large pigs in the weekly slaughter increased. The fat - standard price difference was 0.68 yuan, down 0.06 yuan from last week. The frozen product inventory rate was 20.03%, up 0.04% from last week [4][12][48]. - Demand - related data: The average daily weekly slaughter rate was 33.47%, down 1.36% from last week. The average daily weekly slaughter volume was 138,532 heads, down 5,604 heads from last week. The fresh - sales rate was 86.27%, up 0.23% from last week [4][12][48]. - Cost - related data: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 202.62 yuan/head, up 19.76 yuan/head from last week. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.91 yuan/head, down 10.21 yuan/head from last week. The profit from purchasing piglets was - 116.92 yuan/head, up 12.58 yuan/head from last week [4][12][48]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slowly. In September 2025, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, down 0.07% month - on - month and 0.66% year - on - year. My Agri's sample in October showed an increase, while Yongyi's sample showed a decrease [20][48]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%. The farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening and group enterprise slaughter. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong. Hold existing short positions in contracts 01, 03, and 05, and continue to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage. Be cautious about bottom - fishing in contracts 07 and 09 [4][48]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The futures price of Egg 2512 closed at 3,219 yuan/500 kg, up 73 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 419 yuan/500 kg, weakening by 3 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][54][69]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The national weekly utilization rate of egg - laying hen hatching eggs was 57%. The average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.80 yuan/chick. The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. - Demand - related data: The egg shipment volume was 6,300.06 tons, up 252.77 tons week - on - week. The sales volume in the sample sales areas was 7,300 tons, down 358 tons week - on - week [5][55][69]. - Profit - related data: The expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 24.44 yuan/hen, up 1.66 yuan/hen from last week. The profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly in October 2025, with 1.359 billion hens in production, down 0.09 billion month - on - month and up 0.72 billion year - on - year [5][69]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has a marginal improvement, and egg prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease. Short the main 12 - contract lightly when the price is high, and expect the 01 - contract to oscillate within the range of 3,250 - 3,450 [5][69]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of Corn 2601 closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, strengthening by 11 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][73][88]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The inventory of old - crop corn among traders in production and sales areas was low. The new - crop supply in the Northeast was increasing. In September, corn imports were 60,000 tons, up 50% month - on - month and down 80.6% year - on - year [6][75][88]. - Demand - related data: The feed demand increased due to the growth of pig and poultry inventories, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to wheat replacing corn in feed use. The deep - processing industry's profit turned positive, but the capacity utilization rate was still low [6][75][88]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The national grain - selling progress was 22% as of November 7, 3% faster than the same period last year. The progress in North China was 20%, 1% faster than the same period last year, and that in Northeast China was 18%, 3% faster than the same period last year [6][76][88]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, corn prices will be under pressure due to the concentrated listing of new crops. In the long - term, there is strong cost support. The main 01 - contract will oscillate within the range of 2,050 - 2,170 [6][88].