投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月7日） 1. 据Mysteel，卫星数据显示，2024年4月28日-5月4日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存 总量1316.8万吨，环比上升58万吨，库存持续累库，目前库存绝对量处于二季度以来的高点。 3. 据国家粮油信息中心，5月上旬，我国进口巴西大豆陆续通关入厂，预计5月进口量1200万吨，6月 1100万吨，国内大豆供应将明显改善。本周油厂开机率将明显回升，预计5月全国主要油厂大豆压榨量 830万吨。 4. 国际棉花咨询委员会（ICAC）发布的5月份全球产需预测称，棉花市场前景倾向悲观，棉花消费和采 购面临压力。 5. 据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，由于船运商削减全球制造业合作伙伴的订单，美国进 口量迅速下降，如今已蔓延至全美范围的出口下滑。其中大豆、玉米和牛肉等农产品受到的冲击最为严 重。 6. 据Mysteel，2025年4月28日-5月4日，澳洲锂精矿发运至中国总量10.2万吨，环比上升2.4万吨，周度 平均发运中国量6.9万吨，当周全球发运量为10.2万吨。 2. 据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚4月1-30日棕 ...

COMEX黄金期货收涨涨3.53%，刷新日高至3440美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨2.96%，报33.435美元/ 盎司。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed futures market shows a trend where near - term contracts are weakening and far - term contracts are slightly firmer. The overall market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed meal has increased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing the market price. The decline in soybean meal prices also drags down rapeseed meal futures prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the cost increase due to the tariff hike on Canadian rapeseed oil restricts future imports, and the supply - side pressure has weakened. But high inventory continues to restrain prices. The weakening of palm oil also affects rapeseed oil, leading to a decline in its price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9216 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2548 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 701 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 149 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Position volumes: The position volume of the rapeseed oil main contract is 280976 lots, up 4397 lots; the position volume of the rapeseed meal main contract is 565683 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 18650 lots, down 3859 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 46891 lots, up 2077 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 1357 sheets, unchanged; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 15700 sheets, up 1700 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9387.5 yuan/ton, down 18.75 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5143.56 yuan/ton, up 128.78 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.67, up 0.09; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 93 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 48 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 640 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 13.5 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 1.45 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 28.52%, up 9.86 percentage points; the monthly import rapeseed crushing profit is 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal area rapeseed oil inventory is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the coastal area rapeseed meal inventory is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.04 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 44.67 million tons, down 0.79 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 6.6 million tons, up 1 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 23 million tons, up 7.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons; the monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.08%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 23.16%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.12%, down 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.13%, down 0.41 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.19%, down 0.31 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.63%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.98%, down 0.56 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.02%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the Canadian rapeseed futures market on Monday, most contracts declined, with the benchmark contract down 0.9%. The near - term contracts weakened, and the far - term contracts were slightly firmer. The prices of rapeseed futures ranged from a decline of 6.3 Canadian dollars to an increase of 3.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - South American rapeseed has a bumper harvest, which pressures international soybean prices. The expected reduction in the planting area of new - season US soybeans may increase the expectation of weather premiums. In the domestic market, before the festival, the soybean clearance time affected the operation of some oil mills, leading to a shortage of soybean meal supply. However, high prices have led to downstream resistance, and the spot price of soybean meal has dropped significantly. After the festival, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose [2].

声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 5 月 7 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 4 月外汇储备和 4 月黄金储备。 5 月 8 日 02:00，美联储 FOMC 公布利率决议及政策声明，预期美联储将联邦基金利率保持不变。 5月8日19:00，英国央行将公布利率决议和会议纪要，预期英国5月央行基准利率将下调25个基点至4.25%。 5 月 9 日 10:00，海关总署将公布 4 月进出口数据。 2025 年 5 月 6 日 5 月 10 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布 4 月 CPI 和 PPI。 5 月 10 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 4 月金融统计数据报告、4 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、4 月 社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 本周热点前瞻 2025-05-06 陶 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 2025年05月06日 黄金：数据好于预期 白银：震荡回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | 黄金：数据好于预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：仍处于磨底阶段 | 6 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 8 | | 铅：需求偏弱，短期承压 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 10 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 12 | | 工业硅：库存累库，盘面弱势格局 | 14 | | 多晶硅：关注五月份签单情况 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：供需双弱，偏弱震荡或延续 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The domestic PP market showed a weak consolidation trend, with prices of some resources dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The weak and volatile PP futures suppressed the trading confidence of spot market participants. Sellers focused on pre - holiday shipments, and some offers were slightly adjusted down. Downstream factories had basically completed pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in dull raw material demand and a weaker market atmosphere compared to the previous trading day. The PP trend intensity was - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 was 7092, with a daily decline of 0.27%. The trading volume was 226,916, and the open interest increased by 4289. The 09 - contract basis was 78 (previous day: 88), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 64 (previous day: 58) [1] - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price ranged from 7080 - 7290 yuan/ton (previous day: 7080 - 7300 yuan/ton); in the East China region, it was 7170 - 7300 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in the South China region, it was 7160 - 7360 yuan/ton (previous day: 7180 - 7380 yuan/ton) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market was weakly consolidated, with some resource prices dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The weak PP futures affected market confidence, sellers sold before the holiday, and downstream demand was dull [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was - 1, indicating a bearish outlook, with the range of trend intensity being integers within [- 2, 2] [2]

2025 年 05 月 06 日 品 研 究 豆粕：假期美豆涨跌互现，连粕或偏弱运行 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） 4188 | +8（+0.19%） | na na | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） 2920 | -57（-1.91%） | na na | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） 1046 | -12.25（-1.16%） | 附注：连盘为4月30日收盘价， 夜盘休市； | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） 295.6 | -1.3（-0.44%） | 美盘为5月5日收盘价。 | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | （节前4月30日报价） | | | 3500～3550， 山东 （元/吨） | 较昨-100或+20； 6-9月M2509-60/-50/-40/-30/-20/+0， M2601+120/+130/+150/ ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月6日） 1. 据上海航运交易所数据，截至2025年5月5日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报1379.07 点，与上期相比跌3.5%。 4. 印尼能源部官员Edi Wibowo周一表示，截至4月24日，印尼今年生物柴油消费量为444万升。在1月至 3月期间，生物柴油消费量为320万升。印尼今年生物柴油的棕榈油强制掺混比例为40%，高于去年的 35%。 5. 据CONAB，截至5月3日，2024/25年度巴西大豆收割率为97.7%，上周为94.8%，去年同期为94.3%， 五年均值为96.3%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月4日当周，美国大豆种植率为 30%，此前市场预期为31%，此前一周为18%，去年同期为24%，五年均值为23%；出苗率为7%，上年 同期为8%，五年均值为5%。 7. 印度矿业部表示，2024-25财年原铝产量从2023-24财年的41.6万吨增至42万吨；2024-25财年精炼铜产 量环比增长12.6%，从2023-24财年的50.9万吨增至57.3万吨。 2. 据Mysteel，2025年04月2 ...

期货热点追踪 马棕油期价延续走弱，市场多重因素利空，未来期价或下探至..... 相关链接 ...