格隆汇12月30日丨百洋股份(002696.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司饲料产品目前全部面向国内市场 销售，畅销华南、西南、华中、华东等地区，暂未涉及出口业务，因此人民币升值未对公司饲料业务的 经营业绩产生直接影响。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting high dividend yield assets and companies with strong growth potential [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high dividend yield assets in stable industry segments, particularly in packaging and home furnishing sectors [5][10]. - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower procurement costs in the paper industry, with price increases in wood pulp and seasonal demand supporting paper prices [2][12]. - The report identifies key companies for investment, including packaging leaders like Yongxin Co., Yutong Technology, and home furnishing brands such as Kuka Home and Mousse [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Short-term focus on high dividend yield assets in stable packaging companies and leading home furnishing brands [5][6]. - Anticipated benefits from RMB appreciation leading to lower procurement costs in the paper industry [5][12]. - Recommendations for companies with strong export capabilities and potential for brand development [5][15]. 2. Industry Perspectives Packaging - The packaging industry is stabilizing, with leading companies reducing capital expenditures and maintaining high dividend payouts [6][7]. - Yongxin Co. is noted for its strong position in soft packaging and high dividend rates [6]. - Yutong Technology benefits from global supply chain advantages and is expected to increase its dividend payout [7]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by supportive real estate policies and improving consumer confidence [10][11]. - Companies like Kuka Home and Mousse are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [10][11]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is entering a recovery phase with stabilizing prices and improved demand dynamics [12][14]. - Companies such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are positioned to benefit from these trends [12][14]. Export Sector - The report highlights the importance of global supply chain strategies and brand development for companies in the export sector [15][16]. - Companies like Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co. are noted for their strong export capabilities and market positioning [15][16]. Pet Products - The pet products sector is experiencing growth with strong domestic brands and international expansion [19]. - Companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet are recommended for their robust growth potential [19]. Light Industry - The report discusses the strategic changes in light industry companies, focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance growth [20]. - Companies like Anfu Technology and Jianlin Home are noted for their innovative approaches and market positioning [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily attributed to a weaker US dollar and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign capital inflows, rather than indicating the start of a new appreciation cycle [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - On December 30, 2025, the onshore RMB reached a high of 6.9960 against the US dollar, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since May 17, 2023 [1] - The offshore RMB also surpassed the 7.0 threshold on December 25, marking the first occurrence in 15 months [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Market analysts, including the chief economist at China Merchants Bank, suggest that the recent RMB appreciation is driven by short-term favorable factors and does not signify the beginning of a new appreciation cycle [1] - The future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate is expected to be influenced by three main factors: the relative strength of economic recovery in China and the US, trends in US dollar interest rates and exchange rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships alongside domestic economic recovery [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is advised not to overly focus on specific exchange rate levels or develop linear expectations of unilateral appreciation or depreciation, as a two-way fluctuation in the exchange rate is likely to become the norm [1]

在岸人民币兑美元汇率突破关键心理关口，创下近两年半新高。 12月30日，在岸人民币兑美元升破7.0关口，最高触及6.9960，涨幅达0.1%，创2023年5月17日以来最高水平。此前离岸人 民币已在12月25日突破这一市场密切关注的心理关口。 值得注意的是，12月期间，央行在在岸市场频繁出手。26日，人民币兑美元中间价虽上调34点并创逾一年新高，但较市场 预期弱301点，创2018年来最大偏离。近日，央行强调，需稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险。 外资流入与经济复苏预期提供支撑 此次突破正值中国人民银行设定较弱的每日中间价之际。26日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0358，上调34点，创2024年9月30 日以来新高。这一水平比彭博调查中交易员和分析师的平均预期弱了301个点。该偏离幅度不仅反映了监管层的引导意图， 更是自2018年该项调查启动以来，中间价与市场预测之间出现的最大差距。 据央视新闻，近日中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第四季度例会。会议强调，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预 期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 华泰研究表示，关注2026年"开门红"和中美经贸关系进一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan has recently appreciated against the US dollar, breaking the "7" threshold in both offshore and onshore markets for the first time since October 2024 [1][2] - As of December 30, the onshore yuan's exchange rate against the US dollar has strengthened, marking a cumulative appreciation of 4% for the year, with a notable acceleration in appreciation since late November [1] - The offshore yuan also broke the "7" mark on December 25, indicating a recovery of this key level for the first time since October of the previous year [1] Group 2 - According to Wenkang Securities, the trend of yuan appreciation is expected to continue, but it will be gradual rather than rapid [2] - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US is anticipated to support the yuan's appreciation, driven by ongoing loose monetary policy in China and the potential for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - China's trade surplus is also expected to contribute to the appreciation of the yuan in the external environment [2]

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下， | | 纽约市场盘中一度大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封跌停； | | 沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%，夜盘进一步下跌4%。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX | | 白银期货收跌7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。 | | 中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体。中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 | | 2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 | | 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东等区域，组织"正 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent appreciation of the Renminbi, which has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [8]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for the market, with expectations for continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts in 2026 [8]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, suggesting a shift towards a new structure that favors stronger leading firms and specialized development for smaller firms [8]. - The introduction of new disclosure regulations for asset management products in the insurance sector is expected to increase compliance costs in the short term but will enhance investor trust and reduce compliance risks in the long run [36][38]. Summary by Sections Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report notes that the China Securities Association has strengthened the pressure testing system for securities firms, which is expected to enhance risk management and stability in the capital market [14]. - The report indicates that the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 7,085.41 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 11.45 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.22% in average daily trading volume [17]. - The report also mentions that the balance of margin financing and securities lending reached 2.54 trillion yuan, up 1.58% from the previous week [17]. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report discusses the new information disclosure regulations for bank and insurance asset management products, which aim to standardize disclosure practices and enhance investor protection [36][37]. - The report highlights that the new regulations will create a comprehensive disclosure framework, improving transparency and compliance in the insurance asset management sector [38]. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report provides insights into the liquidity situation, noting a net withdrawal of 948 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations during the week [41]. - It also mentions that the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit totaled 5,532.30 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 3,289.70 billion yuan [41].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 国金证券研究 作者：牟一凌、吴晓明、吴慧敏 摘要 ■ 投资逻辑 跨年行情缓步开启，市场不在聚焦单一叙事 近期A股市场连续上涨，市场期待的跨年行情逐渐启动。在国内外基本面尚未出现重大变化之际，当下 反弹更像是前期分母端流动性紧缩预期边际缓和后的全球风险资产共振修复，海外主要股指均实现不同 程度的上涨。值得一提的是市场逐渐不再聚焦于AI中外映射行情的单一叙事，而是向更广泛的领域扩 散，呈现出AI、内需、涨价链、新的产业主题（商业航天）轮涨的格局。单一叙事驱动下的市场上涨 具备不稳定与高波动性，真正的牛市往往是广泛市场机会涌现与形成合力，在当前市场缓步向上，行业 轮动加速之际，2026年新的投资主线也正在慢慢浮出水面。 如何理解近期各产业链涨价：实物消耗的扩散与汇聚 当下涨价链成为市场焦点，通过梳理各行业涨价函具体内容与业内分析可以看到，原材料价格的上涨成 为价格主要推升因素；与此同时，反内卷政策的效果也正在显现，在面临上游涨价，下游压价的困境 时，部分企业开始选择自发减产与联合提价的方式维护产业合理竞争秩序。往后看由于需求端的景气程 度差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - Overall, the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relationship is expected to stabilize in the short term, benefiting export expectations for 2026, but long-term structural contradictions still exist, requiring the exploration of alternative markets and enhancement of independent technology [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. federal funds rate is projected to decline to approximately 3.25% by the end of 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., supporting a stable and strong renminbi if the U.S. rate decreases faster than China's [1] Group 2: Currency and Trade Dynamics - Increased willingness of export enterprises to convert foreign exchange is likely to boost the supply of U.S. dollars in the market, which is favorable for the appreciation of the renminbi [1] - China's current account remains in surplus, with a substantial trade surplus expected in 2025, providing fundamental support for the appreciation of the renminbi [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) on various industries, including upstream raw materials (utilities, non-ferrous metals, steel, energy and chemicals) and consumer goods (airlines, duty-free businesses) [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Reduction**: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the cost of imported goods, benefiting industries reliant on imported raw materials, particularly upstream raw materials and consumer goods sectors [1][3]. - **Debt Servicing Pressure**: Airlines and real estate companies experience reduced pressure on dollar-denominated debt repayments due to RMB appreciation, enhancing profitability for airlines through exchange gains [1][3]. - **Valuation Enhancement**: The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the valuation of core RMB assets, particularly in the financial sector (banks and insurance) and the Hong Kong stock market, potentially attracting foreign capital [1][3]. - **Gas Sector Benefits**: The gas sector benefits from lower procurement costs linked to international oil prices, while high-dividend thermal power sectors are less affected by exchange rate changes [1][4]. - **Airline Sector Gains**: Airlines benefit from direct exchange gains on aircraft purchases and leases, as well as reduced operational costs due to lower dollar-denominated expenses [5][6]. - **Real Estate Market Stability**: RMB appreciation expands the space for interest rate cuts, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, attracting foreign investment in large-scale real estate projects [7]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **REITs Market Growth**: The REITs market is showing robust growth, positively impacting the RMB-denominated real estate market and providing exit channels for related institutions [8][9]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics**: The appreciation of the RMB increases the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, although the fundamental driver remains earnings per share (EPS) [2][10][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: China Duty Free is highlighted as a key beneficiary of RMB appreciation due to its pricing structure and potential growth from policy catalysts and consumer behavior changes [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, emphasizing the multifaceted impacts of RMB appreciation across various sectors and the potential investment opportunities arising from these dynamics.