继上两轮国内成品油价格下调后，本轮国内油价继续下调。12月22日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，按 照现行成品油价格机制，自12月22日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别降低170元和165元。 卓创资讯成品油分析师许磊在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格以下 跌为主，对应原油变化率持续负值范围内运行，开启国内成品油零售价格下调窗口。本轮调价落实后， 私家车单次加满一箱50L的92号汽油后将少花6.5元。 对于下一轮油价调整情况，业内观点不一。隆众资讯原油分析师李彦告诉《华夏时报》记者，地缘局势 不稳定带来潜在供应风险，且欧佩克+将在明年1月起暂停增产，供应端利好支撑将增强，此外欧美圣 诞用油旺季和寒冷天气也季节性推升需求。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油调价上调的概率较大。 汽柴油降价 国家发改委在公告中指出，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据12月22日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次 调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自12月22日24时起，国内汽、柴油价 格每吨分别降低170元和165元。 据金联创测算，截至12月22日第十个工作日，参考原油品种均价为59.00美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to experience a significant decline, marking a potential "three consecutive drops" and reaching a new low for the year 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The recent pricing cycle has seen a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil and increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure [3]. - The market's focus on potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia has led to a decrease in risk premiums, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - An increase in U.S. crude oil production expectations has further exacerbated the decline in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - As of December 22, 2025, the domestic fuel price adjustment will see a reduction of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel [8]. - Throughout 2025, the domestic retail fuel prices have undergone 25 adjustment windows, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of price freezes, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [8][9]. - The retail prices for various fuel types have been adjusted as follows: 92 gasoline at 6.82 yuan/liter, 95 gasoline at 7.25 yuan/liter, 98 gasoline at 9.25 yuan/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.46 yuan/liter, reflecting a decrease of 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter [9]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle will continue to see negative fluctuations, with a potential further decrease of around 40 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel in the upcoming adjustment period [9]. - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for January 6, 2026, with expectations of continued low oil price volatility in the short term [9].

据悉，现在至少有五个武装派别在以军控制区活动，他们公开称准备在哈马斯下台后在加沙地带发挥作 用。由于担心自身在加沙地带的地位遭到威胁，哈马斯方面对这些武装派别进行打击，加沙地带民众则 担心加沙地带可能会滑向内战。 当地时间19日，美军发动"鹰眼打击行动"，对叙利亚境内70多个目标实施打击。美国国防部长赫格塞思 称，这次行动是对13日美军遇袭事件的直接回应，旨在清除叙境内的"伊斯兰国"武装人员及其基础设施 和武器据点。据法新社21日报道，一名叙利亚问题观察人士20日表示，美军的空袭行动打死了5名"伊斯 兰国"成员。与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了俄罗斯"影子船队"的一艘油轮。 从技术面来看，周线级别，金价上周反弹受到之前历史高点触及的趋势线压力附近，动力有所减弱，未 能突破增强多头，附图指标信号也有所偏弱，有回撤至5-10周均线附近4200美元关口附近的风险，以及 更低位置的中轨支撑附近的预期，但根据目前牛市攀升的节点来看，如有回撤触及，也是再次入场看涨 的机会，不过，本周开盘多头再度走强，如持续反弹突破阻力持稳，也可顺势跟进看涨上行。 周一(12月22日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格大幅走涨，目前交投于4397. ...

今日（12月22日）上午，白银涨幅超6%，铂和钯两个期货主力合约携手涨停。 随着全球市场进入"圣诞模式"，主要金融市场将迎来密集休市，金银铂钯等贵金属品种则赶在休市前夕，密集 上涨。而国内钨等稀有金属价格涨幅更为明显。目前，白银年内涨幅已达137%，钨精矿价格年内涨幅已达 202%。 佳鑫国际资源（03858 .HK ）今日（12月22日）再度大涨，截至午间收盘，涨幅超11%。值得注意的是，佳鑫 国际资源刚于8月28日港股上市，目前股价较发行价已有3倍涨幅。 随着更多资金涌入供给偏小的品种，这些品种市场价格涨势更趋陡峭：过去一周，白银上涨8.27%，而钨粉单 周涨幅在18%左右。市场人士提醒，虽然中长期仍然看涨，但是短期波动性仍然值得重视。 密集上涨 当日，国内股市申万二级行业中，贵金属板块居前，涨幅超3%，年内涨幅超80%。其中，白银有色涨幅一度 超9%。而规模较大的黄金股（159562）近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"4934.18万元，近1周份额 增长2100万份，实现显著增长。今年以来该基金累计上涨超92%。 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超认为，美联储降息预期构成贵金属价格上涨的核心支撑，但地 ...

张尧浠：降息预期持续升温、金价前景仍是蓄力再冲顶 黄金市场上周：国际黄金震荡收涨，波幅相对前周有所收窄，并仍处于趋势线压力下方，暗示仍有回落走低调整的风险，但目前走势仍处于5-10周均线上 方，布林带仍倾向向上，基本面降息周期也未结束，故此，短期虽有调整，但方向仍是看涨。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4299.43美元/盎司，并基本上每日都是震荡走盘，先行于周二录得当周低点4271.65美元，之后回升走强，于周四录得当周高 点4374.14美元，并再度陷入震荡，于周五收于4337.90美元，周振幅102.49美元，收涨38.47美元，涨幅0.89%。 影响上，先是受到之前交易日的回撤压力，以及地缘局势缓和，加上美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞特面临特朗普身边高层反对，减弱了未来更加宽松 政策的预期前景，打压金价震荡走低录得当周低点； 之后受到支撑买盘，以及美国10月零售销售月率和美国11月失业率上升等，强化了美联储未来降息的预期，推动金价止跌并反弹走强，但多头难以持稳， 周尾再度陷入获利了结和震荡调整格局，最终震荡收官。 展望本周周一(12月22日)：国际黄金开盘先行走强，受美联储降息预期增强的提振，以及5日均线 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market strengthened ahead of the weekend, with prices reaching daily highs due to a decline in U.S. consumer confidence and a decrease in inflation expectations [1][4] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with prices above key moving averages and higher highs and lows indicating an intact upward trend [2][5] - Key resistance is noted at around $4360, with potential to test historical highs of $4381 and further target $4400 if broken [2][5] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a brief rebound after hitting a low of $54.98 per barrel, closing at $56.54 for WTI and $60.47 for Brent, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [3][6] - The technical structure for oil remains bearish, with prices within a mid-term descending channel and significant resistance between $57.5 and $58.5 [3][6] - Key support is identified in the $55 to $55.5 range, with risks of further declines if this level is breached [3][6]

■对西方的警惕 普京谈及北约东扩及俄罗斯与西方关系时，用到"受骗""欺骗"字眼。普京说，俄罗斯曾 在北约东扩问题上"多次受骗"。北约军事基础设施在向俄边境移动，这引发了俄方的合理担忧。谈及与 西方关系时，普京说，如果俄罗斯受到尊重，不被"欺骗"，就不会有新的特别军事行动。俄罗斯准备与 欧洲、美国开始合作，但前提是平等和互相尊重。 ■对俄中关系的高度重视 普京表示，俄中关系不断发展。他说，两国在各领域开展了一系列务实合作， 贸易额达到2400亿到2500亿美元的水平。俄中合作在高科技制造业、科学教育、人文、太空探索领域也 取得发展，这恰恰体现了两国间高水平互信。 ■对胜利的信心 关于俄乌局势的提问，普京表示，俄武装部队已经完全掌握战略主动权，俄军正在多个 方向推进。普京对俄军在2025年年底前取得更多成果充满信心。"我们也非常希望明年能够生活在和平 环境中，没有任何军事冲突。" 俄罗斯总统普京19日在莫斯科举行"年度盘点"活动，现场回答国内外记者以及俄民众提出的约80个问 题，涵盖国际关系、地缘局势、俄经济军事发展等话题。俄专家认为，普京在活动上的一系列表态，体 现出俄方对特别军事行动取得胜利的信心、对西方的警 ...

黄金价格失守关键点位，投资窗口再度开启？ 最近，黄金市场的热度再次被推高，国内金价报到每克976元，沪金期货一度冲上982.92元的高点；国际市场上，金价也站稳在每盎司4371.4美元附近，从年 初算起，黄金价格累计上涨已超过60%，市场成交明显放大，多空资金在高位展开激烈拉锯。 上海黄金交易所的报价屏幕上，AU9999黄金价格定格在976元/克，距离"千元关口"仅差一步，期货市场的走势更为剧烈，价格在高位上下反复震荡，全天 成交量突破21万手，大量资金正在这个位置完成换手，有人继续追涨，也有人选择获利离场。 国际市场同样不平静，纽约黄金期货价格收在4371.4美元，单日小幅上涨，美元持续走弱，是推动这一轮上涨的重要原因之一，美元指数较年初已下跌接近 一成，使得以美元计价的黄金显得更具吸引力，这轮行情自2024年延续至今，金价多次刷新历史高点，涨势时间之长，在近年并不多见。 全球规模最大的黄金ETF，持仓量在10月达到高点后开始小幅回落，说明部分机构投资者正在趁高位减仓，从技术图形来看，金价的上涨动能有所减弱，短 期存在调整压力。 支撑金价长期走高的力量，首先来自各国央行持续买入黄金，数据显示，央行已连续13 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester bottle chip market is experiencing a "N" shaped trend with prices initially declining and then rising, with an average price in East China at 5719 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.21% week-on-week [1] Cost Factors - The cost side is influenced by geopolitical situations, with oil prices showing a weak to strong trend, and PTA prices following a similar pattern, providing cost support for bottle chips [1] - The geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine and South America may lead to increased volatility in oil prices, which could impact costs further [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply remains ample, with major production facilities operating smoothly and new facilities in Shandong undergoing trial runs, contributing to sufficient market liquidity and ongoing inventory pressure [1] - The expectation is that supply will continue to be relaxed, with potential increases in future supply due to new facilities coming online [1] Demand Trends - Demand is primarily driven by basic needs, with a temporary increase in trading activity due to price corrections stimulating some downstream restocking [1] - However, demand may face weakening pressure as previous restocking efforts conclude, leading to gradually saturated downstream inventories and a slowdown in purchasing pace due to the ongoing seasonal off-peak period [1] Price Outlook - The forecast for next week indicates that bottle chip prices will fluctuate within the range of 5650-5850 yuan/ton, with an average price expected to rise slightly week-on-week [1]