Group 1 - The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that despite the new tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum products, trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing in the "right direction" [1] - The US government raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, citing national security as the reason, which has intensified trade barriers [1] - The EU has approved tariffs on €21 billion worth of US goods as a countermeasure to Trump's metal tariffs, targeting politically sensitive agricultural products and other items [2] Group 2 - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on €95 billion worth of US goods in response to Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs and automotive tariffs, which will include products like Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [2] - The OECD warned that the trade tensions initiated by Trump have significantly worsened the global economic outlook, particularly affecting the US [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has delayed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU wine and alcoholic beverages until July 9, 2025, providing temporary relief for European exporters and U.S. importers [3] - The EU is heavily reliant on the U.S. market for wine exports, with over 60% of U.S. wine imports coming from Europe in 2024 [5] - The French economy is particularly vulnerable, with wine and beverages accounting for €4.1 billion (8.4% of total exports) and aerospace products at €9.1 billion (18.8% of total exports) to the U.S. in 2024 [6] Group 2 - The EU is seeking a negotiated solution to avoid new tariffs on agricultural products, while also preparing countermeasures worth €100 billion against U.S. products [5][8] - The ongoing trade tensions have led to uncertainty for French exporters, particularly in key sectors like wine, cosmetics, and aerospace [6][8] - The U.S. International Trade Court has ruled against Trump's tariff policies, indicating potential legal challenges to the administration's trade strategies [9][11]

美国总统特朗普4月2日公布了面向全球广泛的对等关税，引发全球贸易市场轩然大波。4月9日，特朗普 暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 据路透社报道，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在本周三前提交贸 易谈判的最佳方案。 据路透社获得的美国贸易代表办公室的一份信件草案显示，美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在 关键领域提供最佳方案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。 报道称，该草案表明，美国政府内部对完成交易存在紧迫感。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西 特反复承诺多项协议即将达成，但迄今为止，美国仅与英国这一主要贸易伙伴达成协议，且该协议更像 是持续谈判的框架而非最终交易。报道称，目前尚不清楚这封信会具体发送给哪些国家，但目标是那些 正在进行积极谈判的包括日本、越南、印度等国家以及欧盟。 美提高进口钢铝关税欧盟称将反制 美欧关系近期因美国滥施关税持续紧张。欧盟委员会2日表示，本周将向美国提出强有力的理由，要求 美国降低或取消关税。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔2日称，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁进口关税从25%提高到50%表示强 ...

本周三公布的澳大利亚第一季度GDP增长率将是主要的金融数据发布。如果该数据加速增长，可能会为 澳元提供一些支持，因为这表明尽管国际贸易环境存在不利因素，澳大利亚经济仍能以更快的速度扩 张。本周四公布的4月贸易数据也值得关注，如果澳大利亚4月的贸易顺差扩大，可能会支持澳元。4月 建筑审批增长率的变化也会影响澳元，如果收缩幅度超过3月的-8.8%，可能会对澳元造成压力。此外， 中国5月采购经理人指数（PMI）数据的发布也可能影响澳元，因为中国经济活动的增加，特别是制造 业的改善，可能会增加澳大利亚原材料的出口，从而支持澳元。从货币政策层面看，4月消费者物价指 数（CPI）的下降可能会使澳大利亚央行继续放宽其货币政策。市场似乎预计澳大利亚央行在年底前还 将有三次降息，这种偏鸽派的预期可能会在一定程度上对澳元构成压力。从基本面来看，澳元被视为外 汇市场中的风险资产，因此市场情绪的改善可能会提供支持，而市场的风险规避立场可能会对其造成压 力。目前，贸易紧张局势是澳元面临的主要基本面问题，任何紧张局势的加剧都可能对澳元造成压力。 分析师观点（澳元）："我们强调澳大利亚第一季度GDP数据的发布可能是本周澳洲交易员关注的主要 ...

金十数据6月2日讯，贸易紧张局势加剧，投资者避免购买风险资产，比特币下跌。特朗普周五宣布，计 划从周三开始将钢铁和铝的关税提高至50%。市场参与者在等待本周的关键美国数据，包括周五非农就 业数据和欧洲央行的利率决定。比特币日内下跌逾1%，现报104296美元/枚。 贸易紧张局势引发避险情绪，比特币下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Panetta, indicated that the monetary policy space has diminished, making further interest rate cuts difficult, while the macroeconomic outlook remains weak, and trade tensions could exacerbate the situation [1] Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy space is limited, indicating challenges for future interest rate reductions [1] - The weak macroeconomic outlook suggests that the economy is not performing optimally, which could hinder growth [1] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is described as weak, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the economy [1] - Trade tensions are identified as a factor that may worsen the economic situation, suggesting external risks to economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the U.S. term premium is expected to decline, leading to a slight decrease in sovereign bond yields across most developed markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - The anticipated decline in the U.S. term premium is linked to easing trade tensions, which may reduce the compensation investors require for holding long-term bonds [1] - The report indicates that if the predicted decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium occurs, it would not be surprising to see a moderate decrease in the term premiums of other high-rated 10-year government bonds [1]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have reached a two-week high, driven by a significant decline in inventory levels, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] - Ongoing trade tensions remain a potential risk factor for the copper market, which could impact future price movements [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in copper inventory has contributed to the upward pressure on copper prices [1] - The current price trend indicates a potential bullish sentiment in the copper market, contingent on inventory levels and external economic factors [1] - Trade tensions are highlighted as a looming concern that could affect market stability and investor confidence in copper prices [1]

全球经济和地缘政治的不确定性加剧正推动超级富豪们将黄金转移到海外，而新加坡正迅速成为他们首 选的目的地。这一趋势背后，是这些超级富豪们对传统金融体系信心的下降以及对实物黄金避险价值的 重新认知。 在新加坡机场附近坐落着一栋六层楼高的设施，里面存放着价值约15亿美元的黄金和白银。这个名为 The Reserve的贵金属储存设施内设众多私人金库和一个高达三层的巨型储藏室，里面排列着数千个保 险箱。 设施创始人Gregor Gregersen透露，从今年年初到4月，该金库接收的黄金和白银存储订单量比去年同期 增长了88%。与此同时，The Reserve的贵金属条销售额也同比飙升了200%。 行业观察人士指出，日益增长的不安情绪是这股浪潮背后的主要驱动力。 他说："如果你在一个不信任银行系统的国家，例如黎巴嫩、埃及或阿尔及利亚……他们就不想把钱存 在银行。" 尽管如此，世界黄金协会的Reade表示，对于短期投资者而言，保管在金库中的黄金可能吸引力较低， 因为购买和转移实物黄金的交易成本高于纸黄金。 实物黄金VS纸黄金：富豪更青睐前者 Gregersen表示，富豪们也越来越倾向于选择实物金条而非纸黄金，因为他们不想承 ...

作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.05. 27 本文字数：1763，阅读时长大约3分钟 今年以来，全球贸易形势变化成为了黄金上涨的重要推手。在中美日内瓦商贸谈判后，国际金价一度 从历史高位回撤近6%，然而美国总统特朗普在关税问题上反复和随后美国多边贸易谈判缺乏实质性 进展使得市场焦虑情绪卷土重来。花旗在最新报告中将三个月金价目标位再次调回至3500美元，不 过长期前景面临不利因素挑战。与此同时，不少机构将美国财政危局、美元弱势和实物需求旺盛视为 短中期利多因素。 花旗：短期看好长期谨慎 在上周日发布的一份研究报告中，花旗预测未来三个月内黄金交易目标为3500美元，高于5月12日 设定的3300美元。 最新修正源于特朗普上周再次发出威胁，要从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。不过随后他改变了 想法，据央视新闻报道，当地时间25日，特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他 已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 尽管上修了目标价，花旗分析师对黄金长期前景持谨慎态度，并列举了两个可能的不利因素：其一， 随着美国中期选举临近和美联储降息，经济增长和相关股票风险可能会解除。其 ...