Group 1 - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly silver, has garnered significant market attention, with silver prices reaching historical highs and outperforming gold in year-to-date gains [1] - On October 9, the spot silver price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time, and on October 10, it opened at $46.67 per ounce, peaking at $51.38 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 70% [1] Group 2 - According to research from Zheshang Securities, the core issue for silver currently lies in the decreasing inventory and the increasing investment opportunities in the context of a bull market for precious metals [3] - Global silver mine supply is facing a growth bottleneck, with production expected to decline slightly from 2019 to 2024, primarily due to falling ore grades and frequent disruptions in major mining regions [3] - The supply of silver is largely dependent on the market conditions of primary metals like copper and zinc, as over 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of these metals [3][4] Group 3 - Fluctuations in the markets for basic metals can lead to decreased mining activity, which directly impacts the supply of silver, making it difficult for mining companies to expand silver production in the short term [4] - Recent inflation expectations, surging industrial demand (especially in photovoltaic cells and new energy sectors), and an influx of investment funds into commodity markets for hedging have driven silver prices to record highs [4] - Despite the recent price surge, silver is unlikely to fully replace gold as an investment asset due to its higher price volatility, lower liquidity, and strong industrial demand, which makes its supply unstable [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, and inflation expectations on precious metals markets. It emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold and silver despite short-term fluctuations [3][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - On October 9, gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4,078 before dropping to below $3,958, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 2.8% [5]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. government entering a technical shutdown and delayed economic data releases, which heightened market anxiety and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [5][6]. - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a total of 415 tons of gold in the first half of 2025, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [6][7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by fundamental and momentum factors [7]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures reaching $49.965 before falling to $46.89, marking a daily decline of 4.3% [10]. - The dual logic behind silver's price increase includes its financial attributes benefiting from U.S. monetary policy and its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy [10][11]. - Silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 67% since the beginning of the year, the largest gain for the metal since 1979, outpacing gold's approximately 54% increase during the same period [11]. - Analysts caution that silver's smaller market size makes it more susceptible to volatility compared to gold, suggesting that while silver may offer speculative opportunities, gold is better suited for portfolio diversification [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, particularly in the U.S. [2][3][5] - Gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal on October 9, with international gold prices dropping below $4000, while silver prices initially surged above $50 before retreating [2][3][6] - The recent surge in gold prices, which have increased over 52% this year, is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and rising global demand for safe-haven assets [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government's fiscal challenges are likely to sustain the bullish outlook for gold in the long term [4][5] - The demand for silver is also expected to rise, driven by its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy sectors [6][8] - The volatility in silver prices is noted to be more pronounced than in gold due to its smaller market size, making it more susceptible to rapid price changes [7][8] Group 3 - The Cboe volatility indices for both gold and silver have shown significant increases, indicating potential for price adjustments in the near future [4][8] - UBS and Fidelity have expressed a positive long-term outlook for gold, predicting prices could reach $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5][9] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is highlighted, with gold's performance often influencing silver's market dynamics [9]

10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较周四低位反弹。 价格屡创新高的金银9日经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 刚刚过去的9日，以色列哈马斯之间的和谈进展令美元指数上涨0.72%，突破99高位，创两个多月新高。贵金属则 随即转跌，国际金价跌破4000美元，跌幅达1.7%；现货白银历史性地自1980年来首次涨破50美元关口，上探51美 元，但随后一度回落超5.6%。但期金和现货黄金盘中均曾扭转涨跌幅，反映市场依然看好贵金属长期结构性、周 期性牛市前景。 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较9日低位反弹。 黄金上涨趋势不改 9日美股盘前，金价一度连续第四日创盘中最高纪录，COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元，日内涨近0.2%，现货 黄金逼近4058美元，日内涨近0.4%，但午盘刷新日低，期金跌至3958美元下方，日内跌近2.8%，现货黄金跌至 39451美元，日内跌2.4%。 机构HashKey Group的首席分析师丁（Jeffrey Ding）告诉第一财经，黄金最近一波上涨背后的一个因素是，在美 国两党 ...

编者荐语： 展望后市，A股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在5日线之上，预计节后仍将持续趋势，需要注意3750-3900之间的区间仍是震荡为主，节后 要重点关注方向选择。板块方面，预计有色金属，固态电池，黄金等潜力较大。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 2025 年国庆假期期间，截止发稿的 1 0 月 7 日收盘，全球主要股指整体呈现上涨趋势：恒生指数涨幅 0 .38% ，恒生科技 1 .30% ，美 股三大指数微涨，韩国股市涨幅 3 . 6 4% ，日本股市表现最强上涨 6 .7% ，亚太市场显示出较强的复苏态势。大宗商品方面 COMEX 黄 金价格站上 4 000 ，涨幅超 3 .45% ，贵金属普涨，反映了避险需求或通胀预期的变化，有色金属同样较强，显示出全球工业需求的回暖 迹象。从期间涨幅来看，预计节后 A 股以平稳向好为主，且黄金、有色金属等板块可能延续强势。 展望后市， A 股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在 5 日线之上，预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

Core Insights - The recent report from the Boston Fed indicates that the sharp rise in inflation expectations poses a greater risk to the Federal Reserve's ability to control prices compared to previous periods [1] - Unlike during the pandemic, the current increase in households' one-year inflation expectations is not primarily driven by food and energy prices, raising the risk of sustained inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1][4] - The researchers draw parallels to the late 1970s when inflation surged, leading the Fed to implement an aggressive rate hike cycle [1][4] Inflation Expectations - Since the beginning of the year, American households have been adjusting to the aggressive trade policies of the Trump administration, leading to rising consumer inflation expectations [4] - The report highlights that the inflation expectations surge in the early 1970s and during the pandemic was largely explained by sharp increases in energy and food prices, but the current rise in expectations is less correlated with price increases [4] - The inability to explain the rise in inflation expectations through price increases suggests a significant risk of "de-anchoring" similar to the late 1970s, although these risks are currently deemed manageable [4] Consumer Surveys - Federal Reserve officials have characterized the high inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey as "outliers," noting that other inflation expectation indicators remain aligned with the 2% target [4] - In a notable survey by the New York Fed, consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.4% in September, with three- and five-year expectations exceeding the Fed's 2% target by a full percentage point [4]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：国际金价站上 4000，国内假期出行活跃 海外方面，美国政府陷入停摆、9 月非农就业报告推迟发布，截至目前尚未解决，参议 院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁，将接任日本首相，其政策 主张宽货币、宽财政；法国总理提交辞呈，再度引发政治担忧，日元、欧元兑美元贬值，美 元指数升破 99 后回落。海外政府不确定性及地缘政治摩擦升温，推动金价站上 4000 美元关 口，AI 产业叙事进一步发酵，假期期间海外股指均收涨、铜价涨幅超 4%、油价走平。近期 关注美国政府关门进展、美联储官员的讲话、以及海外地缘政治的风险。 国内方面，国庆中秋假期出行活跃度高于去年，但消费增速放缓，跨区域流动保持较快 增长，零售餐饮销售同比上升但较五一假期回落，出行热度与消费动力呈现结构性分化。假 期地产成交整体低迷，同比去年整体回落，一线城市因前期限购放松表现相对坚挺。目前国 内处于经济基本面温和、预期先行的格局，本周关注 9 月金融数据。 贵金属：金银再创新高，预计将维持强势运行 十一长假期间，美国政府停摆导致的经济数据延迟，令资金大举流入黄金与白银等避险 资产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, nearing $4000 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of declining real interest rates and increased demand from central banks and retail investors, rather than inflation concerns [2][5][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold's price has increased over 50% in the past year, with historical parallels drawn to the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The decline in the 10-year TIPS yield from 2.2% to 1.8% has made gold a more attractive asset as real returns on dollar-denominated bonds diminish [5][7]. - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025 and an additional 166 tons in Q2, indicating a shift towards gold as a non-liability asset [7][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Record inflows into global gold ETFs reached $64 billion from January to September 2025, reflecting a trend of investors using gold as a hedge against uncertainty while still engaging in riskier assets like AI stocks and cryptocurrencies [7][11]. - The current gold buying behavior is characterized by a dual approach of seeking returns while also securing against potential market downturns [7][11]. Group 3: Historical Context - Gold has historically been viewed as the ultimate currency, transitioning from the gold standard to a fiat currency system, which has led to a renewed interest in gold as a hedge against the perceived instability of paper currencies [8][9]. - The rise in gold prices can be seen as a vote against the paper currency system, reflecting a deeper concern about trust in financial institutions and government debt [9][10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Historical patterns suggest that rapid increases in gold prices are often followed by prolonged corrections, indicating potential volatility ahead [10]. - Gold is not merely an anti-dollar asset but is influenced by the broader dynamics of the dollar system, including interest rates and inflation [10]. - The interplay between gold and emerging technologies, such as AI, highlights the complex relationship between optimism for innovation and anxiety about systemic risks [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is experiencing a shutdown due to a budget impasse, the first since 2019, expected to last until mid-October, leading to delays in the release of key economic data such as non-farm payroll and CPI inflation figures [1] - The market is entering a "data blackout" phase, with a surprising decline in ADP employment numbers, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of interest rate cuts [1] - Gold and silver are viewed as essential tools to combat fiscal irresponsibility and monetary policy uncertainty, with a strong long-term bullish outlook for these precious metals [1] Group 2 - As of October 9, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 5.74%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals (10.07%) and Jiangxi Copper (10.00%) [3] - The Gold ETF Fund (159322) rose by 8.02%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.75 yuan [3] - The trading volume for the Gold ETF Fund was active, with a turnover of 18.49% and total transactions amounting to 18.44 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The Gold ETF Fund has seen a net value increase of 54.83% over the past year, ranking 569 out of 3054 index funds, placing it in the top 18.63% [4] - The fund's historical performance includes a maximum monthly return of 20.05% and a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period [4] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [4] Group 4 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.2% of the index, including major companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]