Group 1 - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1][5] - The central bank removed language regarding potential rate cuts from its statement, indicating a shift towards a neutral stance amid financial stability risks [1][5] - Economic resilience is noted despite global trade uncertainties, with the Bank of Korea raising its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8% and adjusting inflation expectations to 2.1% [5][6] Group 2 - The Korean won has been the worst-performing currency in Asia this year, raising concerns about rising import costs and inflation [6][7] - The real estate market continues to show upward trends, with apartment prices in Seoul increasing for 49 consecutive weeks, despite government measures to curb demand [6][9] - The government’s growth strategy is slightly more optimistic than the central bank's, predicting a growth rate of 2%, but warns of potential declines in the long-term growth rate without structural reforms [9]

Group 1 - The market appears stable with no significant volatility, but there are underlying changes that have not been fully priced in by the market [2][3] - The macroeconomic fundamentals show that while the manufacturing sector struggles, the service sector remains strong, indicating no acceleration in the U.S. economy but also no recession [3][4] - The "no firing, no hiring" trend is not detrimental to risk assets, as the Federal Reserve has reasons to maintain a loose monetary policy [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar has potential for short-term rebounds but is unlikely to experience significant trends, with the market's confidence remaining fragile [5][7] - The real risk for the dollar lies in changes within the Federal Reserve's structure rather than economic data [9][10] - The market is currently viewing the dollar as a trading asset rather than a long-term investment, with potential opportunities in the British pound [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has shifted from defensive to cyclical stocks, with a focus on earnings realization rather than storytelling [13][15] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, particularly for banks, with significant reports expected in late January and early February [18][21] - The market's low expectations for fourth-quarter earnings may reduce the risk of collective disappointments [21][23] Group 4 - Oil prices are facing underestimation of supply-side challenges, particularly regarding the recovery of production from Venezuela [29] - The difficulty in restoring production and geopolitical influences may alter supply-demand expectations, increasing the probability of a mid-term bottom for oil prices [29][31] Group 5 - In Japan, discussions about the central bank's interest rate policies are becoming less relevant as fiscal changes take precedence [32][33] - The market is pricing the yen in a manner similar to emerging markets, with short-term interest rates rising while the yen weakens [33][34]

责任编辑：陈平 1月14日，金丰来认为，在当前错综复杂的地缘政治环境与通胀预期交织下，贵金属市场正迎来史诗级 的行情爆发。今日Comex黄金二月期货一度刷新每盎司4644.00美元的历史极值，而白银表现更为激 进，三月期货直接飙升至每盎司89.215美元的纪录高位。金丰来表示，尽管金价在冲高后出现了短暂的 技术性回调，收窄至4613.00美元附近，但白银单日超3.5美元的涨幅充分说明，资金对于避险资产的渴 求已达到阶段性巅峰。 从宏观基本面看，美国12月CPI年度通胀率定格在2.7%，核心CPI则维持在2.6%的多年低点。金丰来表 示，虽然通胀数据大致符合预期，且能源价格受汽油拖累有所下滑，但食品成本的韧性以及核心通胀的 停滞，使得市场对未来货币政策的走向仍存疑虑。与此同时，CME集团宣布将金银期货保证金从固定 金额改为名义价值百分比制。这一制度变革反映了监管机构对当前高波动环境的防御性布局，百分比制 能更直观地捕捉市场波动所需的抵押规模。 地缘局势的动荡是推升避险溢价的主要诱因。金丰来表示，伊朗境内的持续抗议与局部冲突引发了国际 社会的广泛担忧，已有数万人在动荡中被捕，死亡人数可能远超官方报道。德国总理默茨 ...

一、从"外交摩擦"到"风险定价" 过去一段时间，市场对中东局势的关注度明显升温。但真正让情绪发生质变的，是美国总统特朗普周二抛出的那 句极具象征意味的话——"帮助正在路上"。 在特朗普公开喊话伊朗抗议者、宣布暂停所有官方会谈后，原本停留在外交施压层面的博弈，已被市场重新定价 为一场可能失控的地缘风险。阿萨交易学社分析师Zero指出，这种变化并不只体现在新闻标题里，也迅速反映在 油价和避险资产的波动中，黄金自然再次被推到了聚光灯下。 特朗普的表态释放了一个信号：美方在伊朗问题上的耐心正在下降。当白宫内部密集讨论应对选项、军事"强硬选 项"被反复提及，市场最不喜欢的不确定性正在上升。 二、 为什么黄金会提前反应？ 随着特朗普对中东局势的强硬发声，全球避险情绪再度紧绷。今天，阿萨带你深度拆解：在地缘政治与通胀预期 的双重驱动下，黄金的交易逻辑发生了哪些本质变化？ 阿萨在这里要提醒大家需要警惕一种常见误区：并非所有地缘政治冲突都能推动金价持续单边走高。 溢价回吐风险： 短期情绪冲击和中长期趋势之间存在差异。如果局势迅速降温，或者重回谈判框架，黄金的避险 溢价同样可能快速回吐。 博弈心理： 当前黄金走强，更多是对"风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, reaching a high before retreating, but maintained a bullish outlook due to a lack of sustained bearish expectations in the fundamentals [1][11]. Market Performance - On January 13, gold opened at $4603.39 per ounce, peaked at $4634.43, and closed at $4586.43, with a daily range of $64.69 and a decline of $16.96, or 0.37% [1][11]. - The market was influenced by a cautious sentiment, with the unexpected cooling of the U.S. December CPI leading traders to bet on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April, which initially pushed gold prices to a new high [3][13]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. November retail sales, PPI, and third-quarter current account figures, with expectations leaning towards a bearish impact on gold prices [5][15]. - If the economic results exceed expectations, gold may face a pullback to support levels, while weaker results could lead to increased volatility [6][15]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks and rising central bank purchases, alongside increasing fiscal debt, are contributing to a solid foundation for gold's upward trajectory [6][15]. - The market anticipates approximately two interest rate cuts later this year, reinforcing the bullish sentiment for gold [6][15]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has regained strength, surpassing previous resistance levels, and if this momentum continues, it could open up a new bull market with potential gains exceeding 30% [9][18]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $4590 and $4560, with resistance at $4640 and $4675 [10][19]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold in the first half of the year, suggesting that the price could reach $5000, viewing it as a psychological barrier rather than a ceiling [7][16]. - The current market dynamics reflect a collective vote on the trust in the old world order and the reset of the monetary system, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment [7][16].

今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于89.12一线上方，今日开盘于86.90美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报89.57美元/盎司，上涨3.12%，最高触及89.90美元/盎司，最低下探86.75美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 3月份的白银期货多头已重新占据主导地位，下一个上涨目标是收盘价高于坚实的技术阻力位90.00美 元。空头的下一个下跌目标是收盘价低于坚实的支撑位75.00美元。首个阻力位见于今日创下的历史高 点89.215美元，随后是90.00美元。下一个支撑位见于隔夜低点83.355美元，然后是82.00美元。 摩根大通首席执行官杰米.戴蒙周二早些时候在该银行发布第四季度财报后对记者表示："我们认识的所 有人都相信美联储的独立性。"戴蒙说："任何削弱这种独立性的行为可能都不是个好主意，在我看来， 这会产生相反的效果，会推高通胀预期，并可能随着时间的推移提高利率。" 但美国检察官珍妮.皮罗连夜释放信号，其领导的华盛顿办公室无意停止对美联储及鲍威尔的法律行 动。她在社交平台X发文称："本办公室曾多次联系美联储讨论成本超支及主席国会证词事宜，均未获 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Although the bet on a January interest rate cut has almost disappeared, due to geopolitical tensions and Fed turmoil, gold prices remain strong. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -4 yuan/gram [4]. - Core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices have continued to rise. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 2,600 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has heated up again. Due to geopolitical concerns and high - sentiment, silver prices also remain strong [5]. - After Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Recently, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts and optimistic expectations for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market. Coupled with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - After Trump's inauguration, silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to larger increases [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices continued to reach new highs. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: China's December imports and exports and trade balance, and possibly the incremental social financing scale, new RMB loans from January to December, and money supply such as December M2; the US Supreme Court may make a ruling on the Trump tariff case [14]. - 16:20: Speech by European Central Bank Deputy President de Guindos [14]. - 17:15: Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor [14]. - 21:30: US November PPI [14]. - 22:50: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Paulson on the economic outlook [14]. - 23:00: US December existing - home sales annualized total, and speech by Fed Governor Milan on supervision and monetary policy [14]. - 23:30: Speech by Bank of England Deputy President Dave Ramsden [14]. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and participation in a discussion by Atlanta Fed President Bostic [14]. - Next day 03:00: Release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on economic conditions, and opening remarks by New York Fed President Williams [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Positioning Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 180,315, an increase of 1.73% from the previous day; the short position volume is 48,004, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous day; the net position is 132,311, an increase of 3.28% from the previous day [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 359,134, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the short position volume is 293,066, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous day; the net position is 66,068, an increase of 3.90% from the previous day [5][32].

张尧浠：美CPI弱于预期、金价维持看涨前景不变 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4603.39美元/盎司，日内先行震荡盘整运行，延续到美盘时段，多头再度发力，连续反弹走强，录得日内高点4634.43美元， 但最终震荡回撤，并至盘尾触及日内低点4569.74美元，最终有所止跌回升，收于4586.43美元，日振幅64.69美元，收跌16.96美元，跌幅0.37%。 影响上，日内因观望情绪而先行震荡波动，到晚间时段，美国12月CPI意外降温，通胀数据不及预期，交易员加码押注美联储4月降息，推动金价再创历 史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨幅，不过，由于逢低买盘，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，有所止跌。 展望今日周三(1月14日)：国际黄金开盘，延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，先行走强，虽然美元指数近期偏强表现，但也难以对金价产生持续压力，金价将继续 受到降息周期，以及地缘局势避险需求而维持看涨前景，操作保持低多不变。 日内将重点关注美国11月零售销售月率，美国11月PPI年率及月率，还有美国第三季度经常帐(亿美元)、美国10月商业库存月率、美国12月成屋销售总数 年化(万户)等数据，目前整体预期是偏向 ...

格隆汇1月14日｜美国总统特朗普驳斥了摩根大通CEO戴蒙对司法部调查美联储一事的批评，称戴蒙认 为他在削弱央行独立性的说法是"错误的"。"我认为我正在做的事情没有问题，"特朗普表示，"而且美 联储里确实有一个糟糕的人。"周二稍早，戴蒙对司法部调查鲍威尔表示担忧。他说："我们认识的每一 个人都相信美联储的独立性。任何削弱这种独立性的做法可能都不是一个好主意。在我看来，这将产生 相反的后果——推高通胀预期，并可能随着时间推移抬高利率。"在被问及上述言论时，特朗普回应 称："我认为他错了。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.01%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 5.90%, the main contract of platinum closed down 3.32%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 5.22% [1] - In the short - term, the risk aversion from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - The "black swan" event that Fed Chairman Powell was deeply involved in a criminal investigation due to the headquarters renovation case directly shook the independence of monetary policy and the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, leading to the de - anchoring of long - term inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks such as the US - Iran situation and the US arrest of Maduro have increased [1] - In December, US employment growth almost stagnated, and the decline in the unemployment rate alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. In November, the core CPI in the US increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. In December, the Fed cut interest rates amidst many differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Currently, the market expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. The short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4608.80 per ounce, up 2.00% from the previous day and 3.34% from last week; London gold was at $4612.95 per ounce, up 2.65% from the previous day and 3.51% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1027.18 yuan per gram, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.21% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1025.52 yuan per gram, up 0.33% from the previous day and 2.36% from last week [2] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 34.94% [2][3] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.79 per ounce, up 4.04% from the previous day and 10.41% from last week; London silver was at $78.14 per ounce, up 3.90% from the previous day and 5.29% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract closed at 21004.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28% from the previous day and 7.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21048.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.70% from the previous day and 7.97% from last week [4] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.83% [4][5] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from last week; London platinum was at $2208.00 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day but up 15.84% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day but up 15.56% from last week [7] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.03% [7][9] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from last week; London palladium was at $1837.00 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from last week [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Fed: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are 66245.58 billion US dollars, down 0.01% from last week [11] - US economy: GDP growth is 2.30% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter; CPI is 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month; Core CPI is 2.60% year - on - year [11] - Other data: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10 percentage points; The geopolitical risk index is 196.96, up 51.03% from the previous day but down 28.01% from last week; The VIX index is 15.12, up 4.35% from the previous day and 1.48% from last week; The CRB commodity index is 304.04, up 0.85% from the previous day and 0.65% from last week; The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9733 [12][13][15] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 [16]