Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in alumina prices is primarily driven by disruptions in Guinea's mining policies, particularly the revocation of mining licenses, which has notably impacted supply dynamics [2][10]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - Guinea's mining authority issued a work stoppage order for the Axis mining area, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with a 2024 production estimate of 23 million tons [3]. - The revocation of mining licenses for 46 companies in Guinea has escalated supply concerns, leading to a sharp increase in alumina futures prices [3][4]. - Guinea is the largest bauxite producer globally, with its output accounting for 69.4% of China's alumina imports, making it a critical supplier [4]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Capacity - As of May 15, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10,922 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8,412 million tons per year, reflecting a decrease in the operating rate to 77.02% [6]. - The decline in domestic alumina production is attributed to significant profit drops, with average operating rates falling from 86.1% in March to 84.6% in April [6][7]. - The industry is currently experiencing low operating rates, with planned maintenance and project delays contributing to reduced supply pressure [7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Short-term alumina prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and a tightening market, although medium-term oversupply risks persist [8][10]. - The anticipated addition of 1.14 million tons of new alumina capacity in China by 2025, along with 400,000 tons from overseas, may outpace demand growth, leading to potential price pressures [8]. - Key factors to monitor include the ongoing developments in Guinea's mining policies, domestic production capacity changes, and the operating rates of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants [9][10].

Group 1 - Guinea's government has revoked 51 mining licenses, including bauxite projects, raising concerns in the global bauxite shipping market [1] - Approximately 40 million tons of bauxite capacity may be affected, with a potential monthly production loss of about 1.7 million tons, equating to 5% of this year's global bauxite production [1] - China's alumina refineries are most impacted, with Guinea supplying around 70% of its bauxite to China, leading to a potential import loss of about 1 million tons per month [1] Group 2 - If supply issues persist, alumina spot prices may rise to around $390 per ton in the next three months, but could fall back to $360 if resolved quickly [2] - The uncertainty in Guinea's mining operations has increased due to military leadership and rising nationalism in some African countries [3] - The scale of the supply disruption is comparable to Indonesia's export ban in 2022, but finding alternative sources may be more challenging this time [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum futures [5] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the traditional off - season is approaching, the rush for exports may be near the end, the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum price is under pressure. Without other positive factors, it's difficult for the aluminum price to rise further. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - For alumina, the spot price follows the strong trend of the futures market. The futures price has risen due to disturbances at the Guinea ore end. Although the bauxite imports increased significantly from January to April and there may be no supply gap even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,110 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,125 yuan/ton, closed at 20,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 199,900 lots, an increase of 63,926 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 201,358 lots, a decrease of 2,699 lots [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,938 yuan/ton, closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan/ton (6.25%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 2,886,512 lots, an increase of 1,465,036 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 310,945 lots, a decrease of 32,504 lots [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Transactions - On May 19, 2025, 2,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Henan at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,000 yuan/ton. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina spot at a delivered price between 3,400 - 3,470 yuan/ton. 10,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Shanxi at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan/ton [3]

钢铁、水泥和铝冶炼3个行业被纳入全国碳市场，三者都是高碳排产业，但排放源有所不同。钢铁和水 泥行业的碳排放主要来自生产制程（制造业中的一系列生产流程和环节），而铝冶炼行业的碳排放主要 来自电力使用。因此，铝冶炼的脱碳关键在于电力绿化，包括以绿电投资来推动绿电的开发和使用。 铝产业链的环节有铝矿开采、氧化铝生成、电解制铝、铝材加工等，其中电解环节的碳排放最多，约占 总量的70%。铝冶炼采用"冰晶石—氧化铝熔盐电解"工艺，涉及以氧化铝作为电解质，以碳素材料作为 电极。这个流程在直流电作用下发生电化学反应，氧化铝与碳阳极的还原反应产生二氧化碳，在阴极析 出铝液。以全球平均数来看，每吨铝阳极氧化过程产生的直接碳排放约为两吨CO2，其余则为电力相关 的间接碳排放。 我国电解铝的用电以传统煤电为主，各家厂商的电力碳排放虽会受到当地电网及其自备电力碳强度的影 响，但行业的平均电力相关碳强度约为12吨CO2 /吨铝，其中75%来自煤电排放。因此，煤电"换绿"是我 国电解铝脱碳的关键。 然而，绿电投资的资金金额大，回报周期长，收益不确定，开发风险高，民间资本的参与意愿不足。对 此，电解铝厂商可与电力产业共同探索可行投资模式，如 ...

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期几内亚铝土矿频频搅动市场，本文详细列出了今年几内亚和澳大利亚有增量预期的矿 山，以及其中大型矿山目前的发运量。最终得出结论：如果当前撤销许可证范围内的矿企 实现停产，我们仍能维持2024年报"海外新增矿石产量满足海内外氧化铝投产需求"的观 点。但应注意，后续几内亚政府仍有扩大撤销矿山许可证范围的风险；其次，此次行情原 因除近期基本面好转之外，盘面参与资金的多元化也成为影响本次反弹力度和时长的重要 影响因素。 01 市场对几内亚一事的反映 近期几内亚撤销铝土矿一事让市场情绪一再发酵，近远期合约接连涨停。那么今年几内亚铝土 矿的供应到底如何？ 图1：氧化铝2509合约走势图 数据来源：紫金天风期货研究所 02 今年海外矿山增量预期如何？ 我们详细梳理了今年几内亚和澳大利亚两大主要进口国的矿山后，仍然维持2025年二季报 中"海外新增矿石产量满足海内外氧化铝投产需求"的观点。 | 所属国家 | 矿区名称 | 所属公司名称 | ...

Group 1 - The main contract for alumina opened slightly lower but remained stable above the 3000 mark, with a significant increase observed in the previous night session [2] - Guinea's government has revoked mining licenses for 46 companies, signaling a warning to large mining operators, although these companies are not major producers in Guinea's mining sector [2][3] - The Axis mining area has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with the recovery timeline currently unknown [3] Group 2 - Guinea exported approximately 146.4 million tons of bauxite last year, with expectations to exceed 200 million tons this year, representing a 35% increase from the previous record [3] - Domestic alumina production is expected to increase to 86.96 million tons in May, with a production volume of 7.35 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% and a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4] - The alumina operating rate has decreased by 2.66% to 77.02%, with maintenance activities reported in several regions [4] Group 3 - Recent data indicates a weekly decrease in alumina inventory by 36,900 tons, while social inventory has increased slightly [5] - Analysts suggest that the recent revocation of mining licenses and production cuts may lead to a potential upward trend in alumina prices, despite the risk of oversupply due to increased imports [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain a strong price trend for alumina in the short term, with prices projected to range between 2850 and 3050 yuan per ton [7][8]

Market Overview - On May 19, the non-ferrous aluminum sector experienced a localized rally, with companies such as Jiaozuo Wanfang hitting the daily limit, and others like Electric Power Investment Energy, Minfa Aluminum, Ningbo Fubang, Yiqiu Resources, and Tianshan Aluminum showing strong performance during the trading session [1] Company Highlights - Guangzhi Technology (300489.SZ) has turned a profit, specializing in high-performance aluminum alloy materials and machining components, with applications in nuclear power, aerospace, electronics, and rail transportation [2] - Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612.SZ) is a key electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Henan, utilizing large pre-baked electrolytic cell technology, with an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 420,000 tons [2] - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) is a leading electrolytic aluminum producer with a coal-electric-aluminum industry chain, operating an 860,000-ton electrolytic aluminum production line [2] - Meilixin (301307.SZ) has reported a loss, focusing on precision die-casting aluminum alloy components for communication base stations, and is recognized as a competitive player in this field [3] Industry Events - The aluminum oxide futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 5% on May 19, following a production halt notification issued for a major mining project in Guinea, which could significantly impact aluminum ore supply [4] - The Axis mine, operated by Shunda Mining, Water Power No. 11 Bureau, and Gaoding International, is projected to produce 23.2 million tons of bauxite in 2024, with a planned output of 38-40 million tons in 2025. A shutdown could reduce supply by approximately 8 million tons compared to 2024 [5] - The concentration of mining operations in specific regions may lead to a reevaluation of ore prices, with potential price levels between $70 and $75 per ton, affecting domestic production costs [5] - Domestic spot prices remain firm due to tight supply in northern markets and production capacity issues at a major enterprise, with ongoing monitoring required for the sustainability of transactions following price increases [5]

Group 1 - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhu Coal Power Co., Ltd. from its actual controller, State Power Investment Corporation, through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [2] - The transaction is expected to significantly increase the company's asset scale and business strength, enhancing key financial metrics such as total assets, net assets, and operating income [2] - The issuance price for the shares is set at 15.57 yuan per share, which is not less than 80% of the average trading price over the last 120 trading days prior to the pricing date [2] Group 2 - Prior to the transaction, Baiyinhu Coal Power will transfer its stakes in several companies to State Power Investment Corporation, and a simulated financial report will be prepared based on the transferred asset scope [3] - The projected operating revenues for Baiyinhu Coal Power are 7.362 billion yuan, 11.402 billion yuan, and 2.911 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025, respectively [3] - The company holds mining rights for the Baiyinhu No. 2 open-pit mine with a coal production capacity of 15 million tons per year, primarily producing lignite [3] Group 3 - Baiyinhu Coal Power has established a comprehensive development model integrating coal, electricity, and aluminum, with a total coal production capacity of 15 million tons per year and 262,000 kilowatts of thermal power capacity [4] - The company benefits from cost advantages in coal and abundant electricity resources, creating synergies in the coal-electricity-aluminum business sector [4] - This integration reduces external coal sales pressure, lowers transportation costs, and minimizes pollution, while also decreasing production energy consumption and costs [4]

专家 - 当前时点如何看待氧化铝？20250517 摘要 • 2025 年初氧化铝市场供应快速增加，至 3 月中旬全行业开工水平达 9,360 万吨，创近 20 年历史记录，氧化铝电解铝运行比值达 2.1，市场供 应明显过剩，导致大幅抛售。但随后减产和检修增加，比值回归到 2 以下， 当比值达到 1.9 时，又开始走向过剩阶段。 • 氧化铝价格近期反弹主要受全行业减产决心增强、大型央企产业链集团宣 布大面积减产导致现货流动性紧张以及宏观经济因素等多重因素影响，氧 化铝成为资金青睐对象，导致价格暴力反弹。 • 矿石成本显著增长是成本上升的主要原因，自 2023 年开始，矿石成本从 1,460 元/吨上涨至当前的 1,900 元/吨，增加了 500 元。国产矿和进口矿 的应用比例，以及自采矿和外购矿之间的差异，导致了成本结构上的显著 差异。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格波动影响国内市场，2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 2 月期间 价格超过 110 美元，但现货价格降至 70 美元左右。因船运周期长，即使 现货报价 70 美元，实际使用至少需到 7 月初或中旬，期货价格难以下调 至 2,600 元以下。 Q&A 当 ...

氧化铝价格走势研判 20250517 从三月底全行业开工水平 9,360 万吨，到目前 8,650 万吨区间，这一变化主要 源于多方面因素。三月份初期山西奥凯达铝业和森泽铝业因高价矿或自采矿不 足开始点式减产，但大型集团未有新进展。3 月下旬信发减少进口矿使用比例， 自主调整产能；4 月下旬国有集团企业在山西和河南两大四小工厂减产；5 月 第一周山西、山东和云南工厂受波及，全行业出现较大动荡。这些因素导致国 有集团企业在现货市场上购买紧张程度爆发，从而形成当前供应偏紧状态。 氧化铝生产成本上升的原因是什么？ 摘要 • 氧化铝行业经历供应过剩到偏紧的转变，主要由于 3 月底至 5 月初期间， 山西奥凯达、森泽铝业及信发等企业陆续减产，国有集团企业也调动产能， 导致现货市场供应紧张，全行业开工水平从 9,360 万吨降至 8,650 万吨。 • 氧化铝生产成本持续上升，主要受矿石结构成本波动影响。国产矿供应紧 张导致进口矿使用增加，矿石价格从 1,460 元上涨至近 2000 元。各区域 成本差异显著，云南成本最低，广西成本较高，使用进口矿的企业成本与 山东沿海地区接近。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格下降至 70 美元/ ...