Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in August, primarily driven by a strong recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI output index rose to 55.4 in August, up from 55.1 in July, marking the highest level since December of the previous year and indicating continued expansion in the private sector [1] - The manufacturing PMI surged to 53.3, reversing the contraction seen in July (49.8) and exceeding market expectations for a second consecutive month of contraction [1][2] Group 2 - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the strong PMI reading supports a robust performance by U.S. businesses in Q3, with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5%, higher than the average of 1.3% in the first half of the year [2] - There is an increase in both manufacturing and service sector demand, but companies are struggling to meet sales growth, leading to a rise in unfinished orders at the fastest pace since early 2022 [2] - The input cost index rose to a three-month high of 62.3, and prices for goods and services reached a three-year high, indicating a significant increase in inflationary pressures [2]

Yes, this is definitely the most important data of the morning. Watch yields firm up here. S&P Global, these are the PMIs and manufacturing and services and include the composite.They're August preliminary. In a couple weeks, we'll have uh better reads, maybe more precise, but these are nice. We're expecting a number under 50 for manufacturing.Not to be 53.3%. That is the best since May of 22. It reverses a sub50 read that we had.Obviously, it's not only if it's the best since 22, it's by far the best of th ...

Core Insights - Despite higher tariffs on exports to the U.S. due to the EU-U.S. trade agreement, the Eurozone private sector grew at its fastest pace in 15 months, with manufacturing ending a three-year contraction [1][2] Economic Indicators - The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.9 in July to 51.1 in August, surpassing analysts' expectations of 50.6 [1] - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 to 50.5, marking the first time since June 2022 that it has crossed above the growth threshold [2] - The Services PMI slightly decreased to 50.7 but remained above the growth line [2] Country-Specific Performance - Germany's Composite PMI rose to 50.9, exceeding market expectations of 50.2, while the Manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.9 to 49.9, nearing expansion territory for the first time since June 2022 [4] - The Manufacturing Output Index climbed to 52.6, a 41-month high, with new orders growing at the fastest rate since March 2022 [4] - France's Composite PMI unexpectedly increased from 47.4 to 49.8, although it still remains below the growth threshold [6] Trade and External Factors - Eurozone manufacturing foreign orders declined for the second consecutive month, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs [7] - The European Central Bank (ECB) President noted that the new tariffs are slightly higher than previous forecasts but still below more severe scenarios [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - Strong PMI data provides evidence of the Eurozone's resilience against various challenges, supporting the view that the ECB may not need to rush into further rate cuts [8] - Market expectations suggest that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2% in September [8]

Rumor has it, though, that Mark Cudmore is excited about Indian and Australian PMI data. Let's confirm this story now and try and figure out exactly why we are so excited. Update us. Enlighten us, Mark.Good morning. I think you set the scene pretty well there. I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel here, I admit.But I did just notice that the both the services and manufacturing components and therefore created the composite PMI rating for both India and Australia were multi-year highs. And I thought was just ...

Group 1 - Japan's manufacturing activity has contracted for the second consecutive month in August, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and weak overseas demand [1] - The preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.9, an increase from July's final value of 48.9, but still below the neutral level of 50.0, indicating ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - Despite a brief rebound in manufacturing output, indicated by an increase in the output index, the continuous decline in new orders casts a shadow over the recovery outlook [1] Group 2 - New orders in August continued to decline, with overseas new orders dropping at the fastest rate in 17 months, highlighting the vulnerability of Japan's export-oriented manufacturing sector [1] - In contrast to the manufacturing sector, Japan's services sector continued to expand in August, although at a slower pace, with the services PMI preliminary value decreasing from 53.6 in July to 52.7 [2] - The composite PMI output index rose from 51.6 in July to 51.9 in August, indicating the fastest expansion in six months, suggesting that domestic service demand is supporting overall economic activity despite manufacturing pressures [2]

Group 1 - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic events and data releases for the upcoming week, focusing on the potential for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts and the highly anticipated Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] - Key economic indicators to watch include US housing market data, Canadian CPI, UK and Eurozone CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, global PMI data, and German GDP along with UK retail sales [1] Group 2 - On Monday and Tuesday, the US housing market data will be released, including the NAHB housing market index and July new housing starts and building permits, indicating resilience in the US residential construction sector despite high interest rates and economic uncertainty [3] - The Canadian CPI for July will also be released, with market expectations suggesting the Bank of Canada may maintain a pause on interest rate cuts, potentially lowering rates to 2.25% by year-end [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to weak labor market data and low inflation expectations, following a significant rate reduction of 225 basis points since last August [5] - The UK and Eurozone CPI reports will be closely monitored, with the UK CPI unexpectedly rising to its highest level in over a year, which may influence the Bank of England's future decisions [5] Group 4 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes, providing insights into the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts, while the Jackson Hole global central bank conference will feature key speeches, including one from Fed Chair Powell [6][7] - Initial PMI data for August will be released, with a focus on manufacturing and services sectors across various countries, indicating potential economic expansion or contraction [6] Group 5 - On Friday, attention will turn to Germany's second-quarter GDP final value, which is expected to confirm a 0.1% contraction, alongside retail sales data from the UK and Canada [9] - The UK retail sales for July are anticipated to show a continuation of the rebound seen in the previous month, driven by seasonal factors [9]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of hot events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and geopolitical events [2][3]. Weekly Key Focus - On August 20 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China will announce the August 2025 Loan Prime Rate (LPR), expected to be flat with the previous value [2]. - On August 21 at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [2][9]. - On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chair Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium [2][15]. - Attention should also be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials on the futures market [2]. Weekly Hot Event Previews August 18 - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which may have a negative impact on stock index futures and related futures prices such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and aluminum [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with US President Trump in Washington to discuss details of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If successful, a tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be arranged. This may suppress the short - term prices of gold and silver futures and help the stock index futures prices rise [4][5]. August 19 - The US will announce the building permits and new housing starts for July. If the figures are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of base metal futures prices [6]. August 20 - China will announce the August LPR. If it remains unchanged, the impact on commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures will be basically neutral [7]. - The US will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 15. If the inventory continues to increase, it will suppress the rise of crude oil and related closing futures prices [8]. August 21 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [9]. - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21 - 23, and its impact on the futures market prices should be noted [10]. - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI. If it is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices but slightly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [11]. - The US will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16. If the number is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly help the rise of industrial product futures prices (except for gold and silver futures) but slightly suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [12]. - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices and also slightly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [13]. - The US will announce the existing home sales for July [14]. August 22 - Fed Chair Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and its impact on the futures market prices should be noted [15]. August 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - August, covering 9 categories and 50 types of products [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, L01 rose 0.1% to close at 7351 with a total position reduction of about 6100 lots, while PP01 fell 0.1% to close at 7084 with a total position reduction of about 6300 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend. - The main position indicators in Dayue's five major indicators show that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are bearish recently. - The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing. - Fundamentally, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to the fundamentals. Oil prices fluctuated and declined in the short term. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall demand for PE agricultural films fell short of expectations, and the film - making start - up rate was low. The downstream of PP is gradually moving into the peak season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. has improved slightly. - The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L01 rose 0.1% to 7351 with a reduction of about 6100 lots, and PP01 fell 0.1% to 7084 with a reduction of about 6300 lots [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend [5]. - **Basis Situation**: The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing [5]. 3.2 Production Profit | Contract | Latest | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | L Oil - based | - 151 | 126 | | L Coal - based | 963 | - 7 | | PP Oil - based | - 141 | 107 | | PP Coal - based | 418 | - 59 | | PDH | - 411 | - 144 | [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [19]. 3.4 Inventory - The polyolefin industry chain has high inventory. There are also multiple inventory trend charts for PE and PP, including comprehensive inventory, social inventory, and warehouse receipts [5][15][21][24][27][30] 3.5 Start - up Rate - There are start - up rate trend charts for PE and PP, showing the start - up rate changes throughout the year [33][36] 3.6 Profit - There are production cash - flow trend charts for PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) [39][42] 3.7 External Market Price - There are charts showing the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, as well as the US - dollar - denominated prices of PE and PP [45][48][50] 3.8 Downstream - There are charts showing the average start - up rates of PE and PP downstream industries [53][56]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The aluminum production capacity utilization rate reached a new high of 98.4% in July, the highest level since 2012 [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in key metrics, with significant drops in new construction and sales areas [23][76] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July, down 6.16% month-on-month [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hit a yearly low in late July [2] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points [42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for real estate was -20% for the first half of 2025 [23] Industrial Products Chain - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for China was 47.10% in July, down 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1200.73, down 2.56% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.23%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.21% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, supported by government policies [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential volatility in futures prices, particularly in coking coal [5]

大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（8.4~8.8） 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡整理，沪铜主力合约微涨0.11%，收报于78490元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产 业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155850吨，上周出现小 幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供 ...