Group 1 - The rumor regarding Tangshan's sintering machine production cut of 30% from July 4 to 15 has been confirmed by approximately half of the steel mills, with a likelihood of confirmation from the remaining mills. Current production is 270,000 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 83%, which may drop to 70% under the new policy, resulting in a reduction of 30,000 tons per day [1] - In the Ordos region, most coal mines are maintaining stable production, with some previously reduced or shut down mines gradually resuming operations, leading to a recovery in overall coal supply [1] - India's palm oil imports surged by 61% month-on-month in June, reaching 953,000 tons, the highest level in 11 months, while total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1,530,000 tons, marking a seven-month high [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, with East China seeing an increase of 13,500 tons and South China experiencing a decrease of 10,300 tons [2] - The Indonesian government plans to shorten the mining quota (RKAB) duration from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and mineral supplies [2] - Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center indicates that soybean procurement for August shipping is nearly complete, with September shipping at nearly 50% and no purchases for October to December shipping, highlighting the need to monitor future purchases and import arrivals of soybeans [2]

用率仍存走低预期。br2508合约短线预计在10800-11500区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11260 | 10 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 27411 | -880 | | | 合成橡胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 100 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) 主流价:顺丁橡 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - SH2509 rose 0.77% to close at 2358 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, Jincheng Chemical, Dongying Huatai, and Ordos plants were shut down for maintenance, while Huojiagou, Haohua Yuhang, and Shandong Aluminum plants restarted, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 1.3% to 82.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 78.57%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.42% to 60.31%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period. This week, three plants in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three plants in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production plants from June to July, increasing the industry supply pressure in the medium and long term. The alumina price and profit have declined slightly, the growth of the operating rate has stagnated, and the delivery volume of the main suppliers in Shandong has decreased; the non-aluminum off-season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. With the increase in future supply, under the background of limited demand, there is still significant pressure on the caustic soda spot market. In the futures market, since the basis has converged, there is still a lack of positive fundamentals, and the sustainability of the rebound of the 09 contract is questionable. However, since it is close to the cost below 2200, the downward space of the futures price is also limited. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2240 and the pressure around 2400 [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2358 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the futures trading volume was 695,140 lots, up 80,795 lots; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2354 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for May was 2410 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was -10,586 lots, up 14,324 lots; the futures open interest was 278,829 lots, up 9592 lots [3] 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2406.25 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 48 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 82.5%, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. As of June 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.40% [3]

Group 1: Market and Production Insights - The export market for the company remained stable in the first half of the year [1] - The Thai factory has completed construction and is in trial production, with plans to ramp up output in Q3 [1] - The company is accelerating the investment in the second phase of the Thai factory, with full production expected by Q1 next year [1] Group 2: Customer and Revenue Outlook - The customer structure has not changed significantly in the first half of the year [1] - The growth outlook for the second half of the year is better than the first half, driven by new projects starting mass production [1] Group 3: Financial Performance and Capacity Utilization - The company's capacity utilization rate currently exceeds 60%, and it is expected to improve with new project launches [2] - Profit margins are expected to remain stable as production capacity utilization increases [1] - The impact of convertible bond interest is expected to decrease by nearly half by the end of June [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and market trends, highlighting the performance of different sectors and commodities, which can inform investment decisions. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises was 2.159 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.25% [3] - Price changes included rebar up by 0.65%, cement price index down by 1.17%, and coke down by 4.27% [3] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained stable, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -921 yuan/ton [4] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [5] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel down by 0.54% and copper up by 2.36% [5] Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached 20,940 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, with estimated profit at 3,500 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [6] - The price of graphite electrodes remained unchanged at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 5.56% [6] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.23, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 190 yuan/ton, down by 20.83% from the previous week [7] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders were at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [8] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was 1,369.34 points, up by 2.00% [8] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +6.53% [9] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the overall market was 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [9]

Economic Growth and Price Trends - China's GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% for three consecutive quarters, but price levels continue to weaken[1] - CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, while PPI has dropped to -3.3%[1] - In contrast to 2015, when growth and prices were negatively correlated, the current situation shows high growth with persistent price weakness[1] Historical Comparison - In 2015, GDP growth slowed from 7.1% in the first half to 6.9% by Q4, with PPI declining by 5.9% in Q4, the lowest since 2010[1] - Policy easing began in late 2014, with significant measures taken in 2015, leading to a recovery in both growth and prices by mid-2017[1] Current Economic State - The current economic state is characterized as atypical, with high growth not translating into price increases, indicating a potential trend of prolonged price weakness[1] - Marginal improvements in domestic prices are noted, with core CPI showing signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year[1] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The HC2510 contract fluctuated on Monday. The overall hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand is resilient, but the cost support weakens as coal and coke prices decline in the late trading. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards with shrinking red bars. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume is 1,525,709 lots, up 999 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 78,901 lots, down 7,318 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC daily warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 67,543 tons, down 1,192 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 107 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.85%, up 0.04%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 327.24 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, up 0.45%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.22 million tons, up 1.70 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 262.94 million tons, down 0.71 million tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the steel net export volume is 1,010 million tons, up 16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales is 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units. Last week, the number of steel mill maintenance and复产 production lines increased compared with the previous week. 9 provinces had steel mills with production line maintenance, with 9 maintenance lines (2 more than the previous week) and 8复产 lines (3 more than the previous week). The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 18.03 million tons this week [2]. Industry News - China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so - called tariff reductions. Canada will impose a 50% tariff on steel products imported from countries without a free - trade agreement with Ottawa that exceed the quota [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rebounds for both steel products and raw materials [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, steel products rebounded with little change in weekly fundamentals, showing a pattern of stronger supply and weaker demand. The recent strong performance of upstream raw materials has boosted steel products, but the hot and rainy weather still has a negative impact on building material demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Product Production and Utilization - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 54.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.13 percentage points [3] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [3] - The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [3] - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons [3] Downstream Appliance Production - In July, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] - The refrigerator production schedule was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] - The washing machine production schedule was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] Steel Product Market Situation - Last week, steel products rebounded with little change in weekly fundamentals. The inventory of the five major steel products slightly accumulated, production increased, and demand slightly decreased, still showing a pattern of stronger supply and weaker demand [3]

Economic Growth Dynamics - The fundamental driver of economic growth is the dynamic balance between investment and consumption, where investment creates new supply and consumption represents demand[1] - GDP can be divided into capital income and non-capital income, with capital income being concentrated among a few individuals, leading to a low marginal propensity to consume[1] Investment Efficiency Decline - Since the 2009 financial crisis, China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) has continuously increased, indicating that capital stock growth has outpaced GDP growth, resulting in declining investment efficiency[3] - From 2010 to 2020, China's capital income share remained relatively stable, while capital return rates (r) have been decreasing, indicating a negative correlation between K/GDP and r[3][4] Structural Challenges and Solutions - The current structural dilemma arises from declining investment efficiency and insufficient consumption demand, necessitating a shift from "heavy investment, light consumption" to activating domestic consumption, particularly in services[4] - A significant portion (70%) of fixed asset investment is related to construction and installation, while service consumption among residents remains notably low, contributing to capital idleness[4][5] Sustainable Growth Path - To achieve sustainable growth and avoid the "efficiency cliff," the growth engine must transition from a single "investment-driven" model to a dual "consumption-led, investment-responsive" model[4] - The investment evaluation system should incorporate "capital stock/GDP" and "capacity utilization" as core efficiency indicators to avoid ineffective capital accumulation[4] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with model failure, tail risks, and uncertainties in domestic policy execution that could impact the effectiveness of proposed strategies[4][5]

Group 1 - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Agricultural Technology") has completed the first round of inquiry letter responses, addressing 11 questions related to "business and technology," "reasonableness of performance changes," "reasonableness of large inventory," and "use of raised funds" [2] - Agricultural Technology's production capacity utilization rates for 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 65.14%, 68.72%, and 56.63%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decline of 17.59% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to raise 552 million yuan through its IPO, which will be used for various projects, including a 300,000-ton annual production project for humic acid intelligent high tower compound fertilizer and a 150,000-ton annual production line for biological fertilizers [4] Group 2 - Agricultural Technology's main products include humic acid-enhanced fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers, with its coated urea production and sales ranking first in the industry and humic acid compound fertilizers ranking second [4] - The inquiry letter highlights concerns regarding the reasonableness of Agricultural Technology's fundraising for capacity expansion, given its insufficient capacity utilization [2][5] - The overall fertilizer industry has experienced significant idle capacity, with average capacity utilization rates for listed companies in the sector being 47.07%, 52.78%, and 46.50% from 2022 to 2024 [5]