美联储内部分歧达到十年之最，华尔街的观点也随之分裂。 华尔街见闻此前提及，根据6月点阵图，美联储官员对2025年利率预测呈现两极化分布，分歧程度创下十年新高。与此同时，华尔街投行对今年降息时机 的判断也出现了分歧。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在其最新研报中表示，受通胀胀风险和关税影响，预计2025年全年无降息，而花旗则在其研报中预计，9月就可能开启降 息周期，且后续每次会议都可能降息，直至政策利率降至3-3.25%。 大摩与花旗预测迥异 大摩报告明确表示，鉴于通胀压力和关税对消费及企业支出的拖累，2025年不会降息，预计2026年才会启动175个基点的降息周期。 大摩分析称，6月FOMC会议纪要偏鹰派，"大多数"官员仍担忧关税可能导致通胀持久化，甚至动摇通胀预期。如果通胀在6月至9月间加速上升，可能有 更多官员倾向于维持现有政策不变。 相反，花旗研究报告则对9月降息充满信心。 据花旗分析，尽管6月会议纪要显示部分官员对通胀风险的担忧加剧，但随着未来数据发布，通胀压力有望缓解，而劳动力市场疲软的迹象将进一步显 现。 花旗预计，9月FOMC会议后，美联储将启动降息，并在此后每次会议持续降息，直至政策利率降至3- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that most participants believe that increased tariffs or heightened policy uncertainty will suppress labor demand [1] Labor Market Conditions - Participants assess that the labor market remains solid, close to maximum employment levels [1] - A slowdown in hiring and layoffs has been noted, reflecting stability in the labor market [1] - Some participants reported that contacts and survey respondents indicated a pause in hiring decisions due to rising uncertainty [1] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration policies are contributing to a reduction in labor supply, as noted by several participants [1] Labor Demand Outlook - Most participants expect that increased tariffs or greater policy uncertainty will negatively impact labor demand, with many anticipating a gradual softening of conditions [1] - Some indicators have already shown signs of weakness, prompting close monitoring of further labor market deterioration [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth continues to slow, and participants do not expect it to create inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have decreased to 3%, the lowest level in five months, down from 3.2% [1] - The median inflation expectations for the next three and five years remain unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively [1] - There is a decline in uncertainty regarding price pressures in both one-year and three-year expectations [1] Group 2 - There are mixed signals regarding the labor market; the likelihood of unemployment in the next 12 months has decreased to the lowest level since December of the previous year [2] - Consumers are slightly more optimistic about their financial situation, with a decrease in the proportion of households expecting worse economic conditions in a year [2] - The proportion of households facing difficulties in obtaining credit has decreased, and the likelihood of missing minimum payments in the next three months is at its lowest since May of the previous year [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, both of which are bearish for gold [1] - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of high inflation and that the labor market remains healthy without signs of early deterioration, reinforcing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July [3] - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for a rate cut in July dropped from 23.8% to 5.2%, while the probability of maintaining rates rose to 94.8%, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding future rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The unexpected strong performance of the non-farm report has shattered hopes for a July rate cut, pushing expectations for rate cuts to September instead, with the total expected cuts for the year revised down from three to two [4] - Despite the positive non-farm data, the average employment in the first half of the year is significantly lower than last year's average, suggesting a slowdown in the overall labor market [4] - Technically, gold is in a bullish trend after a period of adjustment, with support levels at $3,200 and $3,250, and resistance at $3,450, indicating potential for a breakout above $3,500 [5]

澳储行日内宣布维持利率在3.85%不变，此前市场预期该央行将降息25个基点。利率决议公布后，澳元 兑美元短线拉升，日内涨幅约1%。 剔除海外因素，国内私人需求正逐步复苏，实际家庭收入回升，部分金融压力指标缓解。但部分行业企 业仍反映需求疲软导致成本难转嫁至终端价格。同时多项指标显示劳动力市场依然紧张：未充分就业率 处于低位，企业调查显示劳动力短缺仍是普遍制约。剔除季度波动后，薪资增速已从峰值放缓，但生产 率未提升，单位劳动力成本增幅仍高。 国内外形势使澳大利亚经济与通胀前景均存在不确定性。近期货币政策宽松的滞后效应、企业定价与薪 资对供需平衡的反应、劳动力市场紧张及生产率持续疲软等因素亦增加不确定性。 此前金融市场和经济学家预测澳储行政策转向鸽派，日内的决定显示，澳储行仍不急于调整，欲等待更 多经济放缓的证据。分析师表示，澳储行将保留进一步宽松的选项，8月有可能降息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳储行官员们认为，通胀风险更趋平衡，劳动力市场保持强劲，但对前景持谨慎态度——尤其在总供需 不确定性加剧的背景下，可能需要等待更多信息才能确认通胀率仍有望达到2.5%的可持续水平。当前 货币政策已为应对潜在国际冲击做好充 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that its monetary policy is well-prepared to respond decisively to changes in international circumstances, with multiple indicators showing that the labor market remains tight [1] Group 1 - The RBA is ready to take action in response to international developments [1] - Labor market indicators suggest ongoing tightness in the labor market [1]

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3%[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, contributing to the decline in the unemployment rate[3] Employment Sector Performance - Government employment was the primary driver of the high job growth in June, adding 73,000 jobs compared to the previous month's 7,000[4] - Private sector job growth remained weak, with manufacturing jobs decreasing by 7,000 and wholesale trade jobs declining by 6,600[4] - The service sector added 68,000 jobs, but this was a slowdown from previous months[4] Structural Risks - The decrease in the labor force participation rate indicates underlying structural weaknesses in the labor market, despite the positive employment figures[5] - The rising number of unemployed individuals, despite a falling unemployment rate, suggests potential future challenges for the job market[5] - Immigration policies may lead to a continued decline in labor supply, potentially increasing unemployment rates without a corresponding rise in the unemployment rate[5] Market Implications - The strong employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year, with markets now betting on no rate cut in July and one cut each in September and December[5] - However, the long-term outlook for rate cuts has decreased significantly, reflecting increased risks to the U.S. economy[5] - The ongoing inflationary pressures from tariffs may complicate the fulfillment of market expectations for rate cuts[5]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the U.S. labor market is increasingly challenged by underlying individual vulnerabilities, as highlighted by the recent non-farm payroll data, which shows a complex picture of employment dynamics [1][3][18]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Insights - In June, the U.S. non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.12%, better than the anticipated 4.3% [3]. - A significant portion of the job growth came from government employment, particularly in education, which accounted for 27% of the total non-farm increase [4][8]. - The surge in education jobs is attributed to the phased reactivation of the ARP-ESSER funding, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to budget constraints [6][8]. Group 2: Employment Trends in Education and Healthcare - The education and healthcare sectors remain the only bright spots in private employment, showing stability since 2020 [9]. - However, there are signs of concern, such as a continuous decline in working hours, approaching the lowest levels seen after the pandemic's onset in early 2020 [11]. Group 3: Youth Unemployment and Labor Participation - The decline in the unemployment rate is partly due to a drop in labor force participation, which has reached its lowest level since January 2023 at 62.3% [14]. - The participation rate among 16-19-year-olds has also fallen to its lowest since 2020, indicating a trend of young unemployed individuals opting to "lie flat" [14][15]. - The decrease in labor participation cannot solely be attributed to the absence of illegal immigrants, as high-skilled labor participation has seen a more significant decline compared to low-skilled labor [15]. Group 4: Divergence in Employment Data - There is a divergence between non-farm payroll data and other labor market indicators, such as the ADP small non-farm employment trends and the rising number of unemployment claims, suggesting a weakening private sector job market [18]. - Despite the seemingly strong non-farm report, the underlying trends indicate increasing challenges for the Federal Reserve, particularly with more young and high-skilled workers withdrawing from the job market [18].

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month[12] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market despite economic slowdown[12] - The healthcare sector added 59,000 jobs, marking the lowest increase in four months[12] Market Reactions - A-shares showed a strong performance with the Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 1.17% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.9%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, closing at 3,461.15 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.63%, closing at 24,069.94 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.67%[1] Trade and Tariffs - President Trump may begin notifying countries of new tariff rates as early as Friday, intensifying trade negotiations[12] - The European Union aims to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. before July 9[12] Investment Trends - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale announced a direct subsidy of 50 billion RMB over the next 12 months to stimulate consumer spending[14] - China National Building Material issued 1 billion RMB in tech innovation bonds, with an oversubscription of 2.71 times[14]

Core Insights - The June employment report indicates a moderate growth and stability in the U.S. labor market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, aligning closely with the 12-month average of 146,000 [1][6] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, reflecting a stable labor market environment since May 2024 [1][6] - Long-term unemployment and marginally attached workers have increased, suggesting underlying challenges within the labor market [2][6] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, a figure that is consistent with the previous year's monthly average [1] - The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, with a total of 7 million unemployed individuals [1] - The labor force participation rate was stable at 62.3%, and the employment-population ratio remained at 59.7% [1] Wage and Hours Analysis - Average hourly earnings in the private non-farm sector rose by 0.2% to $36.30, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.7%, indicating a decrease from previous years' higher growth rates [2][6] - Average weekly hours worked slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, suggesting a potential slowdown in overall labor demand [3] Sector Performance - Job growth in June was primarily concentrated in less economically sensitive sectors, such as state government (especially education) and healthcare, while federal employment continued to decline [3][4] - Most other major industries showed little change in employment numbers, consistent with the overall moderate growth trend [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The report's data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious and data-dependent monetary policy stance, indicating no immediate need for rate hikes or significant cuts [7] - The overall tone of the report aligns with the Fed's goal of achieving a "soft landing" for the economy, allowing for a gradual cooling of economic activity and labor markets [7][8] Market Reactions - Stock markets interpreted the report as a positive signal, reducing the risk of a hard economic landing and indicating manageable wage pressures [8] - Bond markets experienced downward pressure on yields due to the moderate employment and wage data, potentially enhancing expectations for future rate cuts [8] - The direction of the U.S. dollar will depend on market interpretations of this report relative to data from other major economies and its implications for future Fed policy [8]