北京时间周四凌晨03：00，美联储在结束两天的政策会议后将宣布最新的利率决定，并发布货币政策声明。半小时后，美联储主席鲍威 尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为87.6%，维持利率不变的概率为12.4%。这一预期早已被华尔街消化，目前标普 500指数仍徘徊在历史高点附近。 "美联储本周沟通的核心，在于鲍威尔会将政策描述为'处于良好位置'（正如2025年前几个月美联储按兵不动时所做的那样），还是会重 申'适度限制性'或'略高于中性水平'的表述。若为后者，那么2026年初进一步降息的大门将持续敞开，" 杰富瑞分析师在一份报告中告诉 客户。 "我们预计他不会称政策利率'处于良好位置'，但这仍是市场需重点关注的措辞。"他们表示。 当然，鲍威尔向来以数据为导向。无论他届时如何表述，明年1月的决策仍将基于从现在到那时的宏观经济信息。 而且，货币政策并非鲍威尔一人所能决定。他所领导的FOMC几乎已陷入势均力敌的分裂状态：约半数委员担忧，进一步宽松可能加剧 股市泡沫；另一半委员则认为，美国经济正濒临衰退边缘，失业率攀升，亟需宽松货币政策来避免衰退。 麦格理集团的David D ...

今日周三(12月10日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于61.22一线下方，今日开盘于60.61美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报60.90美元/盎司，上涨0.42%，最高触及61.46美元/盎司，最低下探60.47美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 另外工业方面，荷兰国际集团大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey表示："今年白银的强势得到了一系列因素 的支撑，包括持续的供应短缺、电动汽车和电子产品对太阳能(白银的主要用途之一)的强劲工业需求， 以及作为更便宜的黄金替代品的投资重新流入白银。" 【最新现货白银行情解析】 突破月度交易区间障碍(约58.80-58.85美元区域)的过夜突破被视为白银多头的新触发因素。然而，相对 强弱指数(RSI)在4小时/日线图上显示超买状态，这反过来又抑制了交易者进行新的看涨押注。因此，在 为进一步升值的动作布局之前，等待一些短期盘整或适度回调将是明智的。 若在61.00美元以上的动能将重申近期的积极前景，并为白银从中45.00美元附近或10月底的低点的强劲 上涨延续铺平道路。 反之，银价若跌破60美元，将暴露12月4日的波动低点56.49美元，之后将扩大跌势， ...

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. rose slightly to 7.67 million in October, up from 7.66 million in September, marking the highest level in five months [1] - The increase in job vacancies was primarily driven by a few sectors, including retail, wholesale, and healthcare, with the healthcare industry being the largest contributor to employment growth this year [1] - The number of layoffs in October increased to 1.85 million, the highest since the beginning of 2023, mainly driven by the accommodation and food services sector [1] Group 2 - Hiring decreased by 218,000 after a surge in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The resignation rate in October fell to its lowest level since May 2020, suggesting a potential shift in workforce dynamics [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that due to a government shutdown, the regular methods for adjusting the job vacancy data for October were temporarily suspended [1]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to support a 25 basis point rate cut, with few changes to the DOT plot and median policy assumptions [1][2] - Chair Powell's communication will focus on assessing risks and the outlook for future cuts, balancing weak labor market signals against inflation concerns [2][4] - Historical context shows that dissents within the FOMC are not unusual, and the current environment may lead to fewer than four dissents [6][8] 分组2 - The potential next Fed chair, Kevin Hassett, is noted for his academic credentials, data expertise, and collegiality, which could enhance his effectiveness [11][12] - Discussions around Fed policy include not just rate cuts but also balance sheet management and quantitative easing, with expectations of expanding securities holdings starting in January [13][15] - The Fed may need to add liquidity to address tightening reserve balances, with potential purchases of T-bills starting at $40 billion a month [15][16] 分组3 - Forward inflation indicators are showing positive trends, which may alleviate concerns about the Fed's credibility and its approach to managing rates [21][23] - The labor market is facing challenges, with mixed consumer spending and weak investment, which could lead to a contraction if not addressed [25][26] - The Fed's approach to managing inflation and the labor market will be critical, especially if unemployment continues to rise [26][27]

杰富瑞分析师托马斯·西蒙斯（Thomas Simons）与迈克尔·巴科拉斯（Michael Bacolas）将重点关注鲍威尔是否会说出一个关键短语："处于良好状态（In a good place）"。若他提及该表述，可能意味着其不倾向于明年1月进一步降息；若未使用，则可能为本月后更多降息留有空间。 相反，他们将密切关注美联储在为期两天的会议结束后的官方声明，以及美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会答问时的措辞与语气变化。 "美联储本周沟通的核心，在于鲍威尔会将政策描述为'处于良好状态'（正如2025年初美联储按兵不动时那样），还是重复'适度限制性'或'略高于中性水 平'的表述。若为后者，2026年初进一步降息的大门将持续敞开，"他们在《财富》杂志看到的一份客户报告中表示，"我们预计他不会称政策利率'处于良好 状态'，但这仍是需重点关注的短语。" 根据芝商所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch Tool）的数据，30天联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储本周再次降息的概率达90%。但华尔街早已消化这一预期 ——标普500指数接近历史高点。事实上，交易员已不再关注降息决策本身（他们视其为既定事实），尽管联邦公开市场委员会（F ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its final two-day meeting of the year, with a significant portion of members potentially opposing a rate cut [2] - Chairman Jerome Powell appears prepared to push for a rate cut, aiming to reduce dissent among committee members by signaling a cautious approach to future easing [3] - The decision to cut rates may hinge on recent assessments of the labor market and inflation, with Powell noting signs of labor market loosening and a lack of significant inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divide among policymakers regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut, with some expressing concerns about persistent inflation and the adequacy of current rates to drive it down [4] - The upcoming release of employment and inflation data post-meeting could significantly reshape economic outlooks, as recent job growth has been strong but accompanied by rising unemployment [4] - The debate centers on whether slowing job growth reflects weak labor demand, supporting a rate cut, or is due to a contraction in labor supply, opposing a cut [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's chief economist Nathan Sheets leans towards not cutting rates, indicating a close call with no catastrophic outcomes expected from either decision [5] - The challenge for Powell will be to set policy thresholds for January based on more comprehensive data available at that time, complicating the decision-making process [5] - The proximity of current rates to the "neutral level" raises questions about the rationale for maintaining stability unless inflation declines or the labor market weakens significantly [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to release new economic forecasts, which may reveal members' expectations for rate cuts through 2026, amidst political pressures from President Trump [6] - Trump's attempts to influence the Fed's composition could lead to a more politically driven approach to rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the institution [7] - Analysts suggest that a more politicized Fed may pursue aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to conflicts with committee members' tolerance levels [7]

美联储将在本周二至周三(12月9日-12月10日)召开2025年12月政策会议，并将在北京时间周四（12月11日)凌晨3：00宣布利率政策决定及政策声明。 （市场普遍预期本次美联储利率决议将是一次"鹰派降息"，美联储在降息的同时或避免释放关于明年1月份降息的信号。本次利率决议将包含最新点阵图及 对2026年经济展望，点阵图所体现的利率路径或成为本次利率决议主要多空影响点，由于今年美联储降息仍是非农就业数据疲软所引发，2026年经济展望尤 为重要。） 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.4%，维持利率不变的概率为10.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为7.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.8%。 美联储2025年10月利率决议回顾： （美联储10月利率决议落地前，金价自4381冲高回落最低下探3886一线后逐步陷入短线震荡走势。美联储10月利率决议的落地继续加剧短线震荡走势，显示 出近两年以来，美联储利率决议的公布充分符合市场预期，较难改变金价原有报价趋势。） 参考私营数据但其无法替代官方数据。通胀水平仍略显偏高，近期通胀预期已有所 ...

当地时间12月8日，纽约联储公布的最新调查结果显示，美国消费者对11月的通胀预期保持稳定，家庭对当前及未来财务状况的看法更加悲观。 消费者对医疗费用增长的预期升至自2014年1月以来的最高水平，同时对就业前景的看法有所改善。 具体来看，消费者对于 未来一年的通胀预期为3.2%， 几乎没有变化； 对未来三年和五年的通胀预期维持在3%。 受访者们认为，失业概率下滑 至13.8%，且为今年最低水平。 通胀预期持稳 报告显示，消费者对于未来一年的通胀预期保持不变，为3.2%；对未来三年和五年的通胀预期保持稳定，维持在3%。 受访者对于房价的预期同样保持稳定，预计未来房价保持上涨3.0%不变。 食品的价格展望上涨5.9%，汽油价格上涨4.1%，大学教育费用上涨8.4%，租金上涨8.3%。 这些生活必需品价格的上涨，是消费者感受到财务压力上升的核心原因。 值得一提的是，受访者预计未来一年医疗成本上涨至10.1%，且为2014年1月以来的最高值。 劳动力市场方面，消费者对于未来一年失业率上升的担忧稍有缓解，对未来一年失去工作的预期降至自2024年12月以来的最低水平。 同时，预计主动离职的概率也有所下降，还表示如果失业后找 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, trading around 98.938, while gold prices rose to 4207.65 USD/oz, with a peak of 4218.70 USD/oz and a low of 4195.31 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.26% increase [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate decision on December 10, with a consensus predicting a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [2] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve members regarding priorities, with 85% of surveyed economists anticipating a focus on easing credit due to concerns over a weak labor market [2] Group 2 - A survey indicated that only one participant believes all 12 voting members will support the decision unanimously, with 60% expecting two dissenting votes and one-third predicting three or more [3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates and increased layoffs, despite a surprising job increase in September [3] - Technical analysis of gold indicates a converging triangle pattern, with key resistance at 4230 and support levels at 4175, 4165, and the critical 4155-4150 range [4]

Good morning, Sarah. Yeah, some good breaking news from the New York Fed with inflation expectations unchanged and labor market indicators improving. Let's go through them.The one-year, the three-year, and the 5-year uh inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey all unchanged. 3 2 3 and three. Now, these are all a bit elevated, but it's good news that they're not going up.Inflation expectations rise for food, gas, medical care, a big increase there, and rent as well. Now, there's fodder for both ha ...