Key Points - The article outlines significant financial data and events to be monitored on June 18, 2025, including the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai and various economic indicators from Canada, the US, and the Eurozone [1]. Group 1: Economic Events - The Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai, which is a key event for financial discussions [1]. - The Bank of Canada will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting at 01:30 [1]. - The US will report API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 04:30 [1]. - The UK will release its May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) at 14:00 [1]. - The Eurozone will publish its adjusted current account for April at 16:00, along with the final CPI year-on-year and month-on-month values for May at 17:00 [1]. - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 and new housing starts for May at 20:30 [1]. - The US will also release building permit totals for May at the same time [1]. - EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve data will be published at 22:30 [1]. - The Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will give a speech at 23:15 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections at 02:00 the following day [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:30 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including "volatile and bullish" and "volatile" for various energy and chemical products [1][2][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East are the main reason for the rapid rise in oil prices. The short - term trend of Brent crude oil is expected to be volatile and bullish after breaking through the $70 integer mark [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the tight supply in June and the cost - side rebound, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be volatile and bullish. Considering the summer demand peak, a long - spread strategy can be considered when the spread is low [2] - **Asphalt**: Although there is short - term bottom support for asphalt prices due to low supply in North China and expected supply reduction in Shandong, the upward space is limited due to increased rainfall in the South. The overall trend is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium term [2] - **Polyester**: PX follows the cost trend and is in a de - stocking pattern. TA is under price pressure due to weak fundamentals, and EG shows a volatile trend with weak demand support [4] - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support from raw material prices, the high inventory of downstream tires limits the rebound space of rubber prices [4] - **Methanol**: Despite the increase in port and inland inventories, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive methanol prices up [6] - **Polyolefins**: With the fading of tariff impacts and the arrival of the off - season, the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. The sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to push polyolefin prices up [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Although the fundamentals are under pressure as the downstream enters the off - season, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive PVC prices to rebound [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI July contract rose $3.17 to $68.15/barrel, a 4.88% increase; Brent August contract rose $2.90 to $69.77/barrel, a 4.34% increase; SC2507 closed at 497.4 yuan/barrel, up 16.2 yuan/barrel, a 3.37% increase. Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories are the main factors driving the price increase [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2507 fell 0.74% to 2939 yuan/ton, and LU2508 rose 0.17% to 3563 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market is relatively stable [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2509 fell 1.06% to 3461 yuan/ton. The total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The supply in North China is low, and there is an expected reduction in Shandong [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 0.17% to 4620 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 0.37% to 4285 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 0.4% to 6528 yuan/ton. TA's fundamentals are weak, and EG's inventory is increasing [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2509 rose 85 yuan/ton to 13890 yuan/ton, NR rose 60 yuan/ton to 12215 yuan/ton, and BR fell 5 yuan/ton to 11225 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen slightly, but downstream demand is weak [4] - **Methanol**: The MTO device operating rate remains high, and port and inland inventories are increasing. The price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyolefins**: The profit margins of different production methods vary. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but the price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The domestic real estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season. The price is expected to rebound due to the increase in crude oil prices [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and basis rate quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - China and the US held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, reaching a consensus on some economic and trade issues [11] - The US EIA reported a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories last week, with an increase in refinery utilization rate [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents price trend charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows basis trend charts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, including the basis between different benchmarks and the basis of main contracts [29][30][31] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides spread trend charts for different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and ethylene glycol [43][44][45] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It shows spread trend charts between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, and the spread between fuel oil and asphalt [59][60][61] 4.5 Production Profits - The report presents production profit trend charts for products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81]

格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,裁止至上周,原油库存比去年同期低5.93%;比过去五年同期低8%;汽油 库存比去年同期低1.59%;比过去五年同期低2%:馏份油库存比去年同期低1.74%。比过去五年同期低17%。美国商业石 油库存总量增长616.2万桶。美国流厂加工总量平均每天1722.6万桶。比前一周增加22.8万桶;炼油厂开工率94.3%,比前 一周增长0.9个百分点。原油需求旺季来临,炼厂高开工率带动原油库存持续下降,而汽柴油需求处于今年季节性低点 。据EIA发布的《短期能源展望》,随着油价下跌导致生产商减少钻井活动,该机构预计美国原油产量将在未来18个月 内下降。EIA预计,全球石油库存增加将在预测期内推动原油价格走低。布伦特原油现货价格在5月份连续第四个月下 跌,平均每桶64美元,比4月份下跌4美元/桶。我们预测,到今年年底,布伦特原油价格将跌至平均61美元桶, ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛顿和 北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致；美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊 拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧；伊朗伊斯兰革 命卫队总司令萨拉米表示，伊朗已为任何战斗准备好升级版导弹；中性 2.基差：6月11日，阿曼原油现货价为66.79美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.59美元/桶，基22.02元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至6月6日当周API原油库存减少37万桶，预期增加10万桶；美国至6月6日当周EIA库存减少 364.4万桶，预期减少196万桶；库欣地区库存至6月6日当周减少40.3万桶，前值增加57.6万桶；截止至6月 11日，上海原油期货库存为402.9万桶，不变；偏多 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线上方；中性 2025-06-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575 ...

美国至6月6日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Core Insights - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 370,000 barrels for the week ending June 6, compared to a decrease of 3.28 million barrels in the previous week [1] - API's Cushing crude oil inventory also saw a decline of 728,000 barrels, contrasting with an increase of 952,000 barrels in the prior week [1] - Gasoline inventories increased by 2.969 million barrels, down from an increase of 4.73 million barrels previously, while distillate inventories rose by 3.712 million barrels, compared to a previous increase of 761,000 barrels [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that the first week of the driving peak season saw a slump in gasoline apparent demand. The report is bearish, and the market reacted with a decline after its release. If the phenomenon of weak demand in the peak season persists, the rapidly rising refined oil inventory will soon force upstream producers to reduce production [1][9] Summary by Related Catalog Main Data - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 576,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 509,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.23 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.408 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 389,000 barrels per day to 2.439 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day to 16.998 million barrels per day [3] - Apparent demand for various oil products decreased: U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 113,500 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 92,500 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 65,500 barrels per day [3] Report Review - The larger - than - expected decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to a significant increase in refinery operations. The weekly refinery utilization rate increased by 3.2% to 93.4%, driving an increase in crude oil feedstock volume [4] - In the refined oil segment, fuel demand dropped significantly after the Memorial Day, the start of the traditional demand peak season. Gasoline inventories rose sharply as terminal demand consumption was relatively slow after mid - level nodes such as gas stations stocked up before the holiday, leading to insufficient motivation for further stocking [8]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存下降430万桶，彭博用户预计减少220万桶、分析师预 期下降224.920万桶，之前一周减少279.5万桶。 ...

美国至5月30日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bleak demand outlook for global oil, highlighting the challenges faced by OPEC+ in managing production and the implications for oil prices and market dynamics [12][10]. Group 1: Oil Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 according to OPEC, while the IEA forecasts a more conservative increase of 0.7 million b/d [12]. - The total world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.28 million b/d, reflecting a growth of 1.22% compared to 2025 [8]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has lost some influence over the oil market and is seeking to regain control, particularly in response to non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. [12]. - The article notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 b/d in July, maintaining the same increase as in previous months, indicating a strategy to recover market share [19]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The article highlights significant increases in oil exports from countries like Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE, although the growth rate is showing signs of slowing down [14]. - Iran's production is currently stable at 3.3 to 3.4 million b/d, with potential increases if a deal with the U.S. is reached [14]. Group 4: U.S. Oil Market Insights - U.S. shale oil production is facing a bottleneck, with active drilling rigs at their lowest since January, and profitability hinges on WTI prices remaining above $61 per barrel [19]. - The article indicates that U.S. oil production is currently at 13.401 million b/d, with a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week [59]. Group 5: Global Oil Inventory Trends - The seasonal inventory build-up period is expected between April and June, with significant increases anticipated due to the lifting of production cuts [28]. - The article suggests that the absolute peak of global oil inventory typically occurs between May and June, which could lead to a critical test for oil prices in the coming months [28]. Group 6: Geopolitical Risks - The article mentions that geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine conflict, could further complicate the energy supply landscape and impact global oil prices [65].