Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 16 元至 6088 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6100 元/吨 （+20），华南瓶片价格 6090 元/吨（+10）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 65 手至 5.83 万手，空头持仓减少 262 手至 5.96 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.53 万吨，环比-0.94 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.2%，环比-2.03%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5588 元， 环比-3.7 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-98 元/吨，环比+67 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 11 元至 1779 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1740 元/吨。持 ...

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans experienced a slight decline, ending a three-day rise, as investor concerns over US-EU tensions overshadowed optimism regarding US soybean biofuel demand and record production expectations from Brazil [3][11] - The USDA reported private exports of 190,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines, while US soybean inspection data showed a decrease in exports to China [3][11] - Brazil's soybean harvest rate is at 2.3%, higher than the same period last year but below the five-year average, with favorable weather conditions in Mato Grosso state contributing to higher yields [3][11] - Domestic protein meal prices increased slightly, with canola meal outperforming soybean meal, while soybean meal inventories declined for the third consecutive week due to low crushing volumes and demand for stocking [3][11] - The market outlook for soybean meal remains bearish due to ample supply and cost support, with a suggested strategy of a double selling approach [3][11] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil prices rose due to expectations of reduced production and increased export demand, with shipping data indicating a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 8.64%-11.4% for January 1-20 [4][12] - A survey indicated that the average price of crude palm oil in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than last year, with increased supply from major producing countries and weak biofuel demand exerting downward pressure on prices [4][12] - Malaysia has reduced the palm oil export tax to 9% for February, contributing to a more favorable market environment [4][12] - Domestic palm oil prices increased by over 1%, with soybean oil and canola oil following suit, while overall oilseed inventory pressure has marginally decreased [4][12] - The market is characterized by mixed signals, with both spot and futures prices showing resilience amid seasonal demand [4][12] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures continued to show weakness, with the main contract falling by 1.32% to 11,550 yuan/ton, and open interest continued to decline [6][12] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was reported at 13.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day, with regional prices varying across provinces [6][12] - Increased supply from farmers and low willingness from downstream buyers to purchase at high prices have led to a downward trend in pig prices, although some regions in the south are still attempting to maintain prices [6][12] - Seasonal demand leading up to the Spring Festival may provide some support for pig prices in the near term [6][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 0.13% to 3,027 yuan/500 kg [7][13] - The national average price for eggs was stable at 3.68 yuan/jin, with regional prices showing little change [7][13] - Trade dynamics are characterized by a majority of traders purchasing based on demand, leading to stable prices in most markets, with some minor adjustments [7][13] - Short-term supply remains relatively ample, and as egg prices continue to rebound, spot prices are stabilizing [7][13] - Long-term recovery in farming profits may hinder effective capacity reduction, suggesting a focus on short-term trading strategies [7][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures showed a reduction in open interest, with prices initially declining before recovering, closing with a small upward trend [8][14] - Prices in Northeast China are currently stable, with traders selling based on market conditions, while low-price selling intentions appear limited [8][14] - In the sales regions, corn prices are running strong due to increased costs from snowfall affecting transportation [8][14] - Downstream purchasing remains cautious, with no signs of concentrated stocking in the market [8][14] - The recent performance of the corn market is influenced by surrounding commodities and market sentiment, with the May contract showing a mixed trend [8][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar in the agricultural, forestry and livestock sector is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] - The investment rating for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the external market of raw sugar is weak, affected by supply pressure from Thailand and India, and may maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The domestic sugar market is calm, and technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar is weak. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [1] - For rubber series, natural rubber continues to be weak with insufficient support, and attention should be paid to weather and new policies. Synthetic rubber has a complex situation with both positive and negative factors, and the market may oscillate and consolidate [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Quotes - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5183 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and the night - session closed at 5188 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.14%, and the night - session closed at 5201 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5283 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5150 - 5190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil exported 143.66 million tons of sugar and honey in the first three weeks of January, a 9.09% increase from the same period last year, with an average daily export volume of 13.06 million tons [1] - As of January 17, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a 16.09% decrease from the same period last year. The sugar content in sugar - cane was 11.95%, a 0.08% increase. The sugar - production rate was 9.790%, a 0.024% decrease. The sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a 16.3% decrease [1] - The white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 14439, a daily increase of 313 [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 and pay attention to the range of 5100 - 5230 [1] Rubber Series Market Quotes - As of January 20, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.79%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12550 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.83%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 11585 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.17% [5] Important Information - The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup - lump was 51.8 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38%). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 5.849 million tons, a 2.94% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 995,000 tons, a 6.42% increase, and the general - trade inventory was 4.854 million tons, a 2.26% increase [5] - The price of whole - latex was 15400 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1880 US dollars/ton, a 1.05% decrease, equivalent to 13161 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14750 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease [5] - The price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20. The price difference between mixed - standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 870 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9050 - 9150 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 11550 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 11900 yuan/ton [5] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support near the lower moving average for the rubber series in the near term, and the medium - and long - term strategy is still mainly to buy at low prices [5]

Group 1 - The article provides a summary of various futures trading strategies for different commodities, indicating a mix of "watch" and "short" positions across multiple products [1][3][10] - Key commodities listed include rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, stainless steel, and crude oil, with most strategies suggesting a cautious approach [1][3][10] - The document emphasizes the importance of market trends, both domestic and international, in determining trading strategies for these commodities [1][3] Group 2 - The article mentions specific trading strategies such as "day short" for hot-rolled coil and "day long" for stainless steel, indicating a tactical approach to trading [1][3][10] - It highlights the ongoing volatility in the market, with many commodities being categorized under "watch" status, suggesting uncertainty in price movements [1][3][10] - The document also includes a section on agricultural products like cotton, eggs, and live pigs, with similar cautious trading strategies recommended [3][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The US corn report is bearish, but the global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,142 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased due to weather, the corn spot price has risen, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is stable, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. The supply of corn in the Northeast is still low, the price is strong, farmers are still reluctant to sell, the port inventory is low, and the purchase price at northern ports is stable today. The 03 contract is in high - level oscillation, and the spot basis has strengthened. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has decreased, the spot price of corn in Shandong has risen, the starch price in Shandong is around 2,780 yuan, and the spot price of starch in the Northeast is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. The 03 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn. The North China corn price is relatively stable in January, the starch spot price will still rise, but the futures price is at a large premium to the spot price, so it is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - It is expected that US corn will oscillate at the bottom. The North China corn price continues to rise due to weather, the Northeast corn price is relatively stable, and farmers' reluctance to sell is starting to ease. The spot price is still relatively stable in the short term, and the purchase price at northern ports is stable today. The North China wheat price is strong due to weather, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is starting to widen. The market is currently trading on the increase in corn sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for the 03 corn contract to fall [8]. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, the closing prices are 2,243, 2,272, and 2,291 respectively, with price changes of 2, 0, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.09%, 0.00%, and - 0.09%. The trading volumes are 624, 171,755, and 7,344, with change rates of 8.33%, 28.37%, and - 10.97%. The open interests are 714, 657,841, and 57,729, with change rates of 66.82%, 0.98%, and - 0.77%. For corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, the closing prices are 2,572, 2,586, and 2,616 respectively, with price changes of - 1, - 4, and - 4, and price change rates of - 0.04%, - 0.15%, and - 0.15%. The trading volumes are 4, 14,332, and 161, with change rates of DIV/0!, 41.28%, and - 15.26%. The open interests are 1, 61,040, and 2,916, with change rates of DIV/0!, 5.57%, and - 1.12% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2,150, 2,200, 2,360, 2,312, 2,335, 2,410, and 2,450 respectively. The price changes are 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, - 10, and - 10. The basis values are - 141, - 91, 69, 21, 63, 119, and 159. For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2,730, 2,700, 2,700, 2,860, 2,800, 2,900, and 2,800 respectively. The price changes are all 0. The basis values are 144, 114, 114, 274, 214, 314, and 214 [2]. - **Spreads**: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 29 with a change of 2, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a change of 2, and C09 - C01 is 48 with a change of - 4. For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 14 with a change of 3, CS05 - CS09 is - 30 with a change of 0, and CS09 - CS01 is 44 with a change of - 3. For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 325 with a change of - 2, CS01 - C01 is 329 with a change of - 3, and CS05 - C05 is 314 with a change of - 4 [2]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn report is bearish, but supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The North China corn supply has decreased due to weather, the price has risen, and the price difference with Northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the North China wheat price is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, the downstream feed enterprise inventory has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. The Northeast corn supply is low, the price is strong, farmers are reluctant to sell, the port inventory is low, the northern port purchase price is stable, and the 03 contract is oscillating at a high level with a strengthened spot basis. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory - building [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn spot price has risen, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 0.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. The 03 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn. The North China corn price is relatively stable in January, the starch spot price will rise, but the futures price is at a large premium to the spot price, so the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that US corn will oscillate at the bottom. The North China corn price continues to rise due to weather, the Northeast corn price is relatively stable, and farmers' reluctance to sell is starting to ease. The spot price is still relatively stable in the short term, and the northern port purchase price is stable today. The North China wheat price is strong due to weather, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is starting to widen. The market is trading on the increase in North China corn sales before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for the 03 corn contract to fall. For trading strategies, for the 03 US corn, there is support at 430 cents per bushel. Short the 03 corn contract with a light position and short the 03 starch contract on rallies. Start reverse arbitrage for the 35 starch contract [8][9][10]. Third Part: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put spread strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the ex - warehouse price of corn at northern ports, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [14][15][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract reaching 158,420.0 yuan/ton, marking a substantial rise of 7.58% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for lithium carbonate futures, effective from January 21, 2026, with the price fluctuation limit set at 11% and speculative trading margin at 13% [2] - Supply-side factors include reports of production halts at Guoxuan High-Tech's mines and unclear recovery progress at the Jiangxiawo mine, with concerns about the reliability of the information circulating in the market [2] Group 2 - Demand-side analysis indicates that the significant rise in lithium carbonate prices may suppress terminal demand, with factors such as export tax adjustments and increased production schedules at downstream cathode manufacturers contributing to this outlook [2] - The market is expected to experience high volatility in lithium carbonate futures, with predictions of a shift towards a high-level wide fluctuation pattern in the future [2] - Investment strategies suggest that investors should wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry points, while also monitoring opportunities for volatility selling strategies due to the current high volatility levels [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polyolefin futures closed with a negative line. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina lowered some prices by 100. For拉丝PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the macro - impact on commodities has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices continues to support chemicals at the cost end. However, the short - term oscillation of crude oil after the rebound has an impact on chemicals. Polyolefins may oscillate in the short term after a continuous rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6720, 6667, and 6691 respectively, with price changes of 200, - 28, and - 32 and percentage changes of 3.07%, - 0.42%, and - 0.48% respectively. For拉丝PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6496, 6482, and 6515 respectively, with price changes of 261, - 14, and - 19 and percentage changes of 4.19%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: For linear LL, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 52, 411938, and 23413 respectively, and the open interests were 42, 485464, and 48779 respectively, with open interest changes of 42, 13977, and 2347 respectively. For拉丝PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 539, 302551, and 21307 respectively, and the open interests were 507, 470494, and 89339 respectively, with open interest changes of 507, - 15239, and - 678 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 53, - 24, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of - 175, - 28, and 203. For拉丝PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 14, - 33, and 19 respectively, compared to previous values of - 261, - 38, and 299 [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2215 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2235 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 592 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6430 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were the same. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were also the same [2]. News - On Monday (January 19), due to a US public holiday, the 2026 February WTI had no settlement price, and the electronic trading range was $58.70 - $59.65 per barrel. The 2026 March Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange settled at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.26 - $64.39 [2].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 3. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is facing dual pressures of rising production and weakening demand, with inventory accumulation likely to continue. In the short - term, it will probably maintain a weak and volatile pattern. It's not advisable to go long rashly, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - The glass industry is in a new cycle of capacity clearance. Short - term supply contraction will support prices, but downstream real - estate data is declining, and the cancellation of export tax rebates squeezes profit margins. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On January 19, the main soda ash contract SA605 fluctuated weakly, closing at 1192 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day, with a reduction of 38,955 lots in positions [7]. - The current soda ash market has an imbalance between supply and demand. With production rising, demand weakening, and downstream destocking willingness low, the inventory accumulation trend will continue. The weak fundamentals of the downstream float glass industry and the cancellation of the glass products export tax rebate policy further suppress demand. It is not recommended to go long in the short - term, and a short - on - rebound strategy is suitable for the medium - to - long - term [8]. Glass - On January 19, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 was weak. The glass production lines are in overall losses, and there is an expectation of cold - repair before the festival, which will further reduce supply. The inventory is still high. Although short - term supply contraction will support prices, the downstream real - estate data is declining, and the cancellation of export tax rebates squeezes profit margins. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][14][17]

Group 1: Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic sugar market has a calm fundamental situation with no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar has weakened, and the overall commodity performance is sluggish. The market is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state in the short - term, and the support at the lower integer level should be monitored [1]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: On January 19, 2026, the closing price of the SR605 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closed at 5,233 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,245 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,306 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,310 - 5,380 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,170 - 5,210 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5,700 - 5,900 yuan/ton, with an individual reduction of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 518, an increase of 18 from the same period last year. As of January 17, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% from the same period last year. The sugar content was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% from the same period last year. The number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,126, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. - **Market Logic**: The ICE raw - sugar market was closed due to a US holiday, so there was no quotation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. The latest data from Thailand and India were negative for international sugar prices, while the domestic white - sugar market had a calm fundamental situation [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short position of the SR605 contract and monitor the support performance around 5,200 [1]. Group 2: Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The natural - rubber market has insufficient positive fundamental support due to the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend. The synthetic - rubber market is affected by the weakening of the commodity sentiment, and the short - term price is mainly in the process of adjustment. In general, the rubber sector is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support below. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. The NR2603 contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%. The BR2603 contract closed at 11,605 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.78% [5]. - **Important Information**: The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht or 0.86%. The cup - rubber price was 52 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.20 Thai baht or 0.38%. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton, with no change. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%. The general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. The price of whole - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.64%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1,900 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars or 0.26%, equivalent to 13,310 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.54%. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 895 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 10 yuan/ton. The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,150 - 9,250 yuan/ton. The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan to 11,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 150 yuan to 12,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the price continued to fall. With the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend, the fundamental situation was not favorable. For synthetic rubber, although the internal and external prices and supply of butadiene still provided some support to the market, the weakening of the commodity sentiment led to a decline in the actual - transaction price center. The production - device load of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly, but there was still inventory pressure [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support near the moving average in the short - term for the rubber sector, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5].