股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月18日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 延续偏强，预计阶段性调整结束 市场回顾 今日股指偏强运行，大盘股指走势强于中小盘股指。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨316.74亿元。期指均放 量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%，前值为下降0.9%。分析指出，美国6月零售销售 反弹强于预期，部分增长可能反映出受关税影响的部分商品价格上涨。 2. 商务部："十五五"期间将继续减少服务消费领域的限制性措施。 3. 中新社7月17日从中国地质大学获悉，该校联合内蒙古自治区地质调查研究院，在内蒙古白云鄂博矿床主 矿矿段的矿体中部，发现一种新稀土矿物，命名为"钕黄河矿"。 核心观点 今日股指延续偏强运行，两市成交额小幅放量，大盘股指偏强。板块方面，受一则新稀土矿物被发现消息影 响，今日稀土板块领涨。从期货指标来看，由于近月合约今日到期基差变动幅度大增，因此抛开近月合约情 况，今日各品种期指合约基差均上涨，市场情绪持续向好。目前市场无明显利空信息，预计此轮阶段性调整 结束 ...

Index Trends - On July 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3516.83 points with a trading volume of 609.791 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to close at 10873.62 points with a trading volume of 929.578 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% with a trading volume of 325.984 billion yuan, opening at 6458.41, closing at 6535.67, with a high of 6535.67 and a low of 6451.15 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% with a trading volume of 235.043 billion yuan, opening at 6013.71, closing at 6082.46, with a high of 6082.46 and a low of 6013.04 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.68% with a trading volume of 325.517 billion yuan, opening at 4005.07, closing at 4034.49, with a high of 4034.59 and a low of 4005.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% with a trading volume of 74.646 billion yuan, opening at 2737.35, closing at 2744.26, with a high of 2744.74 and a low of 2732.35 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 73.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Electronics, and Machinery having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 65.27 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 27.29 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Communication, and Medicine & Biology having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 3.36 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Food & Beverage, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry having a significant upward pull, while sectors such as Transportation, Communication, and Banking had a downward pull [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -8.13, IM01 -75.98, IM02 -151.1, and IM03 -336.78 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -1.49, IC01 -54.76, IC02 -108.14, and IC03 -235.3 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -3.57, IF01 -15.25, IF02 -27.9, and IF03 -63.8 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -2.73, IH01 -5.16, IH02 -5.96, and IH03 -4.36 [14]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are presented in detailed tables [25][26][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Citigroup upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "Overweight," with a year - end target of 25,000 for the Hang Seng Index and 4,200 for the CSI 300 Index [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets: Driven by strong growth in US retail sales data in June and a continuous decline in the number of initial jobless claims, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2] - Domestic markets: The A - share market continues its structural market characteristics. The national defense and military industry sector leads the gains, highlighting the performance - driven main line. Sectors with performance support such as rare earth permanent magnets, biomedicine, and consumer electronics are expected to regain upward momentum based on fundamental advantages after a short - term technical correction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68% to 4,034.49 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23% to 2,744.26 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% to 6,082.46 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% to 6,535.67 points [12] - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded to 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IH and IF contracts increased synchronously. The trading volume of IC and IM contracts decreased, while the open interest increased [1][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the current - month contracts basically converged. The report details the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [1][36][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc., along with their changes [46][47] - **Charts**: Include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratios, foreign - funded net open positions, basis, and inter - period spreads for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5]

Group 1 - The report covers the performance of the China Merchants HuShen 300 Real Estate Equal Weight Index Fund for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a challenging environment for the real estate sector with a decline in both sales volume and price [12][13]. - The fund's A share net value growth rate was -4.59%, while the benchmark growth rate was -4.12% during the same period [13]. - The fund's total share amount at the end of the reporting period was 3,655,079,118.76 shares [2]. Group 2 - The fund employs a passive index investment strategy, aiming to track the HuShen 300 Real Estate Equal Weight Index with a tracking error not exceeding 0.35% [2][3]. - The fund's investment portfolio is primarily composed of stocks, with 92.85% of total assets allocated to equities, specifically in the real estate sector [14][15]. - The fund management has established a robust research methodology and investment decision-making process to ensure fair investment opportunities across all portfolios [11][12]. Group 3 - The fund's investment strategy includes the use of stock index futures to enhance investment efficiency and manage liquidity risks [4][20]. - The fund's performance over the past three years shows a significant decline of -57.85%, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. - The fund's investment in the top ten securities does not exceed the stipulated limits in the fund contract, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [20].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoint The report provides a daily data tracking of stock index futures on July 16, 2025, including index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences and annualized costs during contract rollovers. Summaries by Section Index Trends - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, with a trading volume of 572.419 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 10720.81 points, with a trading volume of 869.619 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.3%, with a trading volume of 306.083 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.03%, with a trading volume of 213.065 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23%, with a trading volume of 68.142 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.3%, with a trading volume of 300.657 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index rose 19.23 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceutical and biological, machinery, and automotive had a significant upward pull, while non - ferrous metals had a downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 Index rose - 1.57 points compared to the previous close. Sectors like pharmaceutical and biological, automotive, and power equipment had an upward pull, while banking, steel, and electronics had a downward pull [2]. - The CSI 300 Index rose - 11.86 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as power equipment, non - banking finance, and banking had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index rose - 6.33 points compared to the previous close. The electronics sector had an upward pull, while pharmaceutical and biological, banking, and non - banking finance had a downward pull [2]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 9.55, IM01 was - 79.03, IM02 was - 151.94, and IM03 was - 331.89 [13]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 4.06, IC01 was - 60.43, IC02 was - 114.57, and IC03 was - 237.99 [13]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 5.2, IF01 was - 19.39, IF02 was - 32.13, and IF03 was - 65.16 [13]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was - 5.62, IH01 was - 7.61, IH02 was - 9.27, and IH03 was - 7.49 [13]. Points Differences and Annualized Costs during Contract Rollovers - The report presents the points differences and annualized costs during contract rollovers for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts, with 15 - minute average data provided for each contract combination such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [21][23][24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The listing date for the Sci-Tech 50 stock index futures is currently undetermined, with the market awaiting official announcements regarding its launch [2]. Group 1: Listing Information - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF was launched on November 16, 2020, on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, including four funds: Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF, E Fund Sci-Tech Board 50 ETF, Huatai-PB Sci-Tech Board ETF, and ICBC Credit Suisse Sci-Tech ETF [2]. Group 2: Differences Between Sci-Tech 50 and SSE 50 Index Futures - The underlying index of the Sci-Tech 50 index futures consists of 50 large-cap, liquid technology innovation companies from the Sci-Tech Board, focusing on emerging industries like semiconductors and biomedicine, highlighting growth attributes [4]. - The SSE 50 index futures are based on the SSE 50 index, which includes 50 large-cap, liquid blue-chip stocks primarily from traditional sectors such as finance and real estate, characterized by concentrated weight and stability [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Characteristics - The constituent stocks of the Sci-Tech 50 index are mostly growth-stage companies with high earnings volatility, resulting in an annualized volatility of over 30%, leading to higher risk and return potential under leverage [5]. - In contrast, the SSE 50 index stocks are mature, with an annualized volatility of about 20%, making the associated index futures relatively more controllable and suitable for conservative strategies [5]. Group 4: Market Function Focus - The Sci-Tech 50 index futures primarily serve risk management for the Sci-Tech Board, helping investors hedge against technology stock volatility and attracting long-term capital for investment in innovative enterprises [5]. - The SSE 50 index futures focus on providing hedging tools for large-cap blue-chip stocks, commonly used to mitigate systemic market risks and maintain overall market stability [5]. Group 5: Contract Design Differences - There are differences in contract details such as margin ratios and price fluctuation limits between the two index futures. The Sci-Tech 50 index futures may require higher margins (e.g., 12%-15%) due to its higher volatility, while the SSE 50 index futures typically have margins around 10%-12% [6].

Group 1 - The main contracts for stock index futures showed positive performance with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) rising by 0.44% [1] - The SSE 50 index futures (IH) experienced a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The CSI 500 index futures (IC) and CSI 1000 index futures (IM) both saw stronger gains, rising by 0.89% and 0.91% respectively [1]

股指期货早盘开盘 沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.01%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌0.05%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约跌0.11%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌0.17%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on stock index futures is that they will show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the short - term, the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened, and it will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase without incremental policies. In the medium - term, the stock index is expected to rise [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view on IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, and the policy - expectation trading is quite sufficient. Further rebound requires policy support from the Politburo meeting in July. The main logic of this stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year. Although the macro - economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year is still strong. Considering that the policy is expected to take effect in the third or fourth quarter, without incremental policies in the short - term, the previous optimistic expectations will gradually cool down, and the stock index will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase [4].

Group 1 - The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) fell by 0.15% [1] - The main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) decreased by 0.25% [1] - The main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) increased by 0.35% [1] - The main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) rose by 0.67% [1]