（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（10月29日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终下跌0.06%，道指期货跌0.23%，纳斯 达克100股指期货涨0.26%。罗素2000股指期货跌0.82%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of stock index futures in the early morning session on October 29, with notable increases in various contracts [1][2] Group 2 - The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose by 0.49% [1] - The SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract increased by 0.14% [1] - The CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract saw a rise of 1.23% [1] - The CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract gained 0.50% [1]

Group 1: Report on Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the financial futures stock index sector is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. With the easing of external uncertainties and the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the expectation of policy benefits rises, driving up the risk preference of the stock market. Meanwhile, as the stock valuation rises, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds still exists [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the same as above. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2165.3 billion yuan yesterday, a decrease of 191.3 billion yuan from the previous day [5]

1. Index Trends - On October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% to close at 3996.94 points, with a trading volume of 1043.404 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to close at 13489.4 points, with a trading volume of 1296.727 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03% with a trading volume of 458.17 billion yuan, opening at 7483.3, closing at 7495.38, with a daily high of 7511.41 and a low of 7430.62 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.67% with a trading volume of 471.762 billion yuan, opening at 7336.2, closing at 7379.39, with a daily high of 7391.21 and a low of 7302.02 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 185.295 billion yuan, opening at 3064.38, closing at 3069.53, with a daily high of 3078.78 and a low of 3052.4 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 76.14 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 120.86 points from the previous close, with electronics and machinery equipment sectors significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 55.34 points from the previous close, with electronics, communication, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 23.71 points from the previous close, with non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly pulling the index up [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 67.41, IM01 of - 140.07, IM02 of - 352.55, and IM03 of - 566.92 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 56.45, IC01 of - 109.06, IC02 of - 274.0, and IC03 of - 458.33 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 12.11, IF01 of - 25.64, IF02 of - 54.36, and IF03 of - 94.0 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.46, IH01 of 0.61, IH02 of 1.85, and IH03 of 0.51 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented in relevant charts and tables, showing values at different time points [23][28]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are provided, including values like IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc. at various times [24][25]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are given, with details at different time intervals [29]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are shown, including values such as IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02 at different times [26][27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock market showed a widespread increase with higher trading volume the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 4000 mark, and both the SSE 50 and micro - cap indices reached new highs for the year. There was a rotation of hot sectors, which is a positive sign. - The IC2512 contract had a discount of 124.99 points, and the IM2512 contract had a discount of 172.78 points, which is a negative sign. - The margin trading balance was 2.4398 trillion yuan, an increase of 59 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment. - The IH2512 contract had a discount of 2.73 points, and the IF2512 contract had a discount of 31.62 points, which is neutral. - In terms of the market trend, IH > IC > IF > IM, and all of them were above the 20 - day moving average, which is positive. - Regarding the positions of major players, the long positions in the IF contract decreased, while those in the IH contract increased, and the long positions in the IC contract decreased, generally showing a positive trend. - Due to the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the rebound in the technology sector after the Fourth Plenary Session, the short - term index is expected to rebound. It is recommended to reduce positions appropriately on days of significant intraday increases. The index is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. Attention should be paid to the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Index Futures Data**: The report provides detailed data on various index futures contracts, including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [3]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: There are charts showing the base and spread trends of the SSE 50 and CSI 500 index futures over a long period, with data sourced from Wind Information and organized by Dayue Futures [4][7]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: Charts display the daily returns of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [10][11]. - **Style Index Daily Returns**: There are multiple charts presenting the daily returns of different style indices, including cyclical and non - cyclical indices, low - P/E, high - P/E, and medium - P/E indices, large - cap, small - cap, value, and growth indices, with data from Wind Information [13][14][16]. Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: A chart shows the trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index over time, with data from Wind Information [19][20]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: A chart depicts the historical PE (TTM) trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [22][23]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: A chart shows the historical PB trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [24][25]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: A chart presents the net inflows of funds into the A - share market and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [26][27]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: A chart shows the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [28][29]. - **Northbound Capital Flows**: A chart displays the net inflows of northbound capital (Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect) over time, with data from Wind Information [30][31]. - **Stock Unlockings**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - **Funding Costs**: A chart shows the trends of SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates over time, with data from Wind Information [36][37]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: Charts show the turnover rates (based on free - floating market capitalization) of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index over time, with data from Wind Information [39][40][42]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: A chart shows the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year Treasury yield over time, with data from Wind Information [48][49]. - **Exchange Rate**: A chart presents the trend of the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate over time, with data from Wind Information [50][51]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: Charts for the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are mentioned, but no specific data details are provided in the summary scope.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, with the market's future trend depending on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - positive expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds [4] - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the view reference is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking willingness of funds and the policy - positive expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [4] - The previous day, each stock index oscillated upward. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2356.6 billion yuan, an increase of 365 billion yuan compared with the previous day [4] - After the China - US economic and trade consultations, external uncertainty risk factors eased, and investors' risk appetite recovered. The release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee brought policy - positive expectations, driving up market risk appetite. However, as the stock valuation rises, there is still a willingness for profit - taking among profitable funds [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: October 27, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,495.38 points, up 1.03%. The main contract, IM2512, rose 0.75% to close at 7,322.6 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 214,742 lots, down 9,711 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 358,844 lots, up 9,755 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 172.78 points to the spot, down 51.54 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -15.95% [5]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,495.38 | 1.03% | 26,534 | 8% | 4,582 | 15% | - | - | - | | IM2511 | 7,399.40 | 0.76% | 45,173 | 5% | 670 | 6% | 72,266 | 2,184 | 128 | | IM2512 | 7,322.60 | 0.75% | 137,585 | -7% | 2,021 | -6% | 187,588 | 4,103 | 330 | | IM2603 | 7,105.20 | 0.78% | 23,471 | -3% | 335 | -1% | 78,846 | 2,254 | 134 | | IM2606 | 6,891.60 | 0.86% | 8,513 | -9% | 118 | -7% | 20,144 | 1,214 | 33 | [4] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.71 points, 0.74 points, 1.23 points, and 45.97 points respectively [5]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 7,495.38 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 7,399.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 0.71 | -95.98 | -1.3% | -18.2% | | Next Month | 7,322.60 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 0.74 | -172.78 | -2.3% | -15.9% | | Quarter 1 | 7,105.20 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 1.23 | -390.18 | -5.3% | -13.8% | | Quarter 2 | 6,891.60 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 45.97 | -603.78 | -8.2% | -13.4% | [14] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IM2511, IM2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [18][20][22] IF Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4,716.02 points, up 1.19%. The main contract, IF2512, rose 1.24% to close at 4,684.4 points [23]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 113,332 lots, down 2,849 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 262,244 lots, up 6,831 lots from the previous day [27]. - The main contract was at a discount of 31.62 points to the spot, down 5.74 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.56% [27]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,716.02 | 1.19% | 26,220 | 26% | 6,727 | 22% | - | - | - | | IF2511 | 4,701.00 | 1.30% | 26,252 | 8% | 370 | 9% | 41,727 | 1,286 | 71 | | IF2512 | 4,684.40 | 1.24% | 71,074 | -4% | 998 | -3% | 157,785 | 4,370 | 266 | | IF2603 | 4,656.00 | 1.26% | 12,499 | -12% | 174 | -11% | 56,157 | 314 | 94 | | IF2606 | 4,620.60 | 1.40% | 3,507 | 2% | 49 | 3% | 6,575 | 861 | 11 | [23] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 1.05 points, 1.89 points, 7.02 points, and 37.42 points respectively [32]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 4,716.02 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 4,701.00 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 1.05 | -15.02 | -0.3% | -4.5% | | Next Month | 4,684.40 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.89 | -31.62 | -0.7% | -4.6% | | Quarter 1 | 4,656.00 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 7.02 | -60.02 | -1.3% | -3.2% | | Quarter 2 | 4,620.60 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 37.42 | -95.42 | -2.0% | -3.2% | [32] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IF2511, IF2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [36][38][39] IC Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 500 was 7,379.39 points, up 1.67%. The main contract, IC2512, rose 1.76% to close at 7,254.4 points [41]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 136,694 lots, down 1,034 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 252,585 lots, up 8,981 lots from the previous day [42]. - The main contract was at a discount of 124.99 points to the spot, down 26.26 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.65% [42]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,379.39 | 1.67% | 23,205 | 19% | 4,718 | 29% | - | - | - | | IC2511 | 7,310.40 | 1.74% | 27,275 | -2% | 398 | 0% | 49,174 | 1,344 | 86 | | IC2512 | 7,254.40 | 1.76% | 87,202 | 3% | 1,264 | 5% | 140,233 | 5,789 | 244 | | IC2603 | 7,083.00 | 1.74% | 16,929 | -12% | 240 | -10% | 51,880 | 409 | 88 | | IC2606 | 6,903.40 | 1.87% | 5,288 | -8% | 73 | -6% | 11,298 | 1,439 | 19 | [41] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 1.83 points, 1.92 points, 3.7 points, and 60 points respectively [42]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 7,379.39 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 7,310.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 1.83 | -68.99 | -0.9% | -13.2% | | Next Month | 7,254.40 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.92 | -124.99 | -1.7% | -11.6% | | Quarter 1 | 7,083.00 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 3.70 | -296.39 | -4.0% | -10.5% | | Quarter 2 | 6,903.40 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 60.00 | -475.99 | -6.5% | -10.5% | [51] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IC2511, IC2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [56][58][60] IH Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3,069.53 points, up 0.78%. The main contract, IH2512, rose 0.74% to close at 3,066.8 points [62]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 56,298 lots, down 2,681 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 98,162 lots, up 2,833 lots from the previous day [62]. - The main contract was at a discount of 2.73 points to the spot, down 5.51 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -0.6% [63]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,069.53 | 0.78% | 7,041 | 28% | 1,853 | 19% | - | - | - | | IH2511 | 3,067.40 | 0.77% | 11,960 | -8% | 110 | -7% | 15,335 | 218 | 17 | | IH2512 | 3,066.80 | 0.74% | 37,476 | -5% | 345 | -4% | 65,887 | 1,268 | 73 | | IH2603 | 3,069.20 | 0.77% | 5,043 | 3% | 46 | 3% | 14,472 | 850 | 16 | | IH2606 | 3,067.40 | 0.80% | 1,819 | 13% | 17 | 14% | 2,468 | 497 | 3 | [62] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0.59 points, 1.43 points, 7.32 points, and 26.56 points respectively [63]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 3,069.53 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 3,067.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 0.59 | -2.13 | -0.1% | -1.0% | | Next Month | 3,066.80 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.43 | -2.73 | -0.1% | -0.6% | | Quarter 1 | 3,069.20 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 7.32 | -0.33 | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Quarter 2 | 3,067.40 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 26.56 | -2.13 | -0.1% | -0.1% | [73] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IH2511, IH2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [77][79][

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Weekend Sino-US trade negotiations showed new progress, and the Fourth Plenary Session's policy orientation continued to influence. Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, with trading volume in the two markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai 50 Index hitting a new high for the year. This week, the full - version of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" and Sino - US negotiation results may be announced. It is expected that the stock indices will continue to be strong in the short term, but the upward trend driven by sentiment may not be sustainable. Today, the basis of stock index futures declined, and the short - selling willingness increased, reflecting market doubts about the upward trend. In terms of index style, small - and medium - cap stocks were dominant, but their advantage was not obvious, and the sustainability of small - cap stocks' dominance is limited [4] Market Review - Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The CSI 300 Index closed up 1.19%. The trading volume in the two markets increased by 365.922 billion yuan, and stock index futures rose with increased volume [3] Important Information - Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur: Reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns, and agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [4] - US core CPI in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest in three months, increasing the expectation of another Fed rate cut this year [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted 900 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations in October, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. After hedging the matured reverse repurchase, the net investment of medium - term liquidity in October reached 60 billion yuan, maintaining a high level, showing a moderately loose monetary policy [4] - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 3.2% [4] Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 1.24 | 11.3332 | - 0.2849 | 26.2244 | 0.6831 | | IH | 0.74 | 5.6298 | - 0.2681 | 9.8162 | 0.2833 | | IC | 1.76 | 13.6694 | - 0.1034 | 25.2585 | 0.8981 | | IM | 0.75 | 21.4742 | - 0.9711 | 35.8844 | 0.9755 | [6] Spot Market | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 1.51 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.32 | | Trading Volume in Two Markets (billion yuan) | 2340.132 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 365.922 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - A long - term bull market started in early 2024, and the current market is in the transition from confidence restoration to the main up - wave or may already be in the main up - wave. In the fourth quarter, there will be a shock adjustment in October, and there is still a possibility of a new medium - level rise at the end of the year [5][7]. - The driving forces of the bull market include the cyclical recovery and improved expectations of the macro - economy, policy support, technological progress, and the shift of asset allocation directions [7]. - The overall index position is not high, but the valuation is relatively high. It is currently on the eve of the main up - wave, and the "Davis double - click" has not started yet. It is speculated that the valuation will increase first, followed by performance improvement [124]. - Index differentiation is obvious. There will be an obvious adjustment in October, and the index will continue to fluctuate upward from November to December, with the center of gravity moving up. The style may change at the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite 50 will be stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures. The long - term trend remains unchanged, and there is still hope for an upward movement around the Spring Festival [135]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Why the Current Bull Market Started in Early 2024 - From the definition of trends, the bear - to - bull conversion was completed in February 2024, which is also the case for other indices [10]. 3.2 Driving Forces of the Bull Market 3.2.1 Cyclical Recovery and Improved Expectations of the Macro - Economy - The fundamentals are still not optimistic, facing great pressure. For example, the growth rate of industrial added value has rebounded, but the growth rate of major industrial product output remains low; the growth rate of fixed asset investment continues to decline; the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level; the inflation situation is continuously weak; the unemployment rate has risen seasonally; the manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak; production is strong while demand is weak, and inventories are increasing; the PMI of the construction and service industries is at a low level; the export situation is expected to deteriorate [13][14][19]. - There are also many positive signals. China's share of global exports is increasing, and the new "new three" products (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are emerging. The chip export is increasing year by year, and the chip import - export deficit is gradually shrinking. The production and sales of automobiles have increased, and the export volume has exceeded the sum of Germany and Japan. The production and sales of excavators have improved. The profitability of industrial enterprises above a designated size has improved month - on - month [60][61][65]. 3.2.2 Policy Support - Fiscal policy is loose. The government department's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is still room to increase leverage. Various consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will be implemented [81]. - The Fed's interest rate cut provides room for domestic interest rate cuts. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the capital supply will continue to be loose. The capital interest rate still has room to decline [83][84]. - The stock market's rise can stimulate economic growth, help economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [88]. 3.2.3 Technological Progress - Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics represented by the open - source DeepSeek artificial intelligence large - model and Unitree Technology may be first applied in China. The chip industry chain is the last important short - board before China becomes a technological super - power. Technological progress will bring a bull market [89]. 3.2.4 Shift of Asset Allocation Directions - Overseas funds are flowing in. As the pressure on the US dollar to depreciate increases and the US stock market is at a record high with high correction pressure, overseas investors' expectations for A - shares have improved, resulting in an increase in the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales [92]. - Residents are shifting from real estate to the stock market. The demand for "speculating in real estate" temporarily does not exist. The real estate is still in the bottom - building process, and the ratio of the stock market's total market value to residents' deposits is still at a low level, with great room for improvement [101][103]. 3.3 Index Valuation - The overall index position is not high, but the valuation is relatively high. This is mainly because the current macro - economy is still in the bottom - building process, corporate profits are poor, and the valuation is passively pushed up [124]. 3.4 Index Seasonality - Index differentiation is obvious. There is an obvious adjustment in October. From November to December, the index continues to fluctuate upward with the center of gravity moving up. Sometimes, in December, fund position - adjustment may cause the index to fall. At the end of the year, the style may change, and the Shanghai Composite 50 will be stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures. The long - term trend remains unchanged, and there is still hope for an upward movement around the Spring Festival [135].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly trended upwards, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The basis discount depth of the four stock index futures varieties decreased, but most of the main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The A - share market was volatile in the early part of the week, but a significant increase on Friday and the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a 10 - year high made the situation clearer. The information from the Fourth Plenary Session injected new confidence and momentum into the market [4]. - After the successful conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan" ideas are clear, and there is progress in China - US high - level economic and trade consultations. Overseas, the US inflation is mild and employment is weak, which is expected to strengthen the Fed's expectation of further interest rate cuts. The market is likely to return to a performance - driven structural market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Review - The four stock index futures varieties trended upwards last week, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively large increases. The basis of the main contracts were: IH at 2.78, IF at - 25.88, IC at - 98.73, and IM at - 121.24. The A - share market was volatile in the early part of the week, but a large single - day increase on Friday and the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a 10 - year high ended the oscillation. The trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Index increased significantly, and many leading stocks hit new highs [4]. 3.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, after the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan" ideas are clear, and there is progress in China - US high - level economic and trade consultations. Overseas, the US September CPI was lower than expected, and the overall inflation situation remained stable. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice by 25bps each this year. The market is likely to return to a performance - driven structural market [6].