美联储：11月一年期通胀预期持稳于3.2%，3-5年期通胀预期持稳于3%。 ...

纽约联邦储备银行周一发布的报告显示，11 月美国家庭对自身当前及未来财务状况的悲观情绪有所加 重，不过其对未来通胀走势的预期保持稳定。 这家地区性联储银行在 11 月《消费者预期调查》中指出，受访者对当前财务状况的看法 "显著恶化"， 而对一年后财务状况的展望则 "略有恶化"。 不过，11 月受访者对就业市场的看法出现好转。报告称，受访者对一年后失业率上升的预期有所回 落，对未来一年内失业的预期降至 2024 年 12 月以来的最低水平，同时家庭对主动离职概率的预期也有 所下调。 该报告发布的次日，美国央行就将召开货币政策会议，预计这场会议将颇具争议。市场普遍预测，美联 储将在周三把政策利率下调 25 个基点，至 3.50%-3.75% 的区间，以此为显现出疲软迹象的就业市场提 供支撑。 鉴于通胀压力仍远高于美联储 2% 的目标，此次降息预期可能会在政策制定者中引发大量明确反对。许 多美联储官员仍认为，当前货币政策的核心重点应是抑制物价压力。 纽约联储的报告显示，11 月通胀方面的读数大体平稳。受访者对一年后通胀的预期与上月持平，维持 在 3.2%；对三年期和五年期通胀的预期也均稳定在 3%，未发生变化。 1 ...

USDINR flirting with the psychological 90 mark Earlier this week, USDINR breached the psychological 90 mark, reflecting depreciation pressure since September - emanating from the recent deterioration in external balance. Heavy RBI interventions (~US$50bn via spot/forwards/NDFs) had delayed this move thus far, but the break above 90 suggests a shift in policy tolerance. We now forecast year- end USD/INR at 92 for FY26 and 94 for FY27. BoP flows stress - driven by tariffs uncertainty, gold imports and weak do ...

周五公布的美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，低于市场预期2.9%，前值为2.9%。 媒体分析指出，消费者支出的回落表明，在史上持续时间最长的政府关门于10月1日开始之前，美国经济最主要的增长引擎就已经 在放缓。尽管近期数据显示，"黑色星期五"的销售表现稳健，消费者在积极寻找折扣，但人们对就业市场的担忧正在加剧，而当前 的消费增长主要由收入更高的家庭推动。 密歇根大学公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心初值指数从11月的51升至53.3。美国12月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.1%，创下自 今年1月以来的最低水平，预期4.5%，前值4.5%。 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，12月5日白银etf持有量为15925.21吨，较上一交易日减少169.24吨。上周五（12 月5日）现货白银尾盘收于58.28美元/盎司，上涨2.07%，盘中白银价格最高上探至59.32美元/盎司，最低触及56.85美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report expects the stainless steel futures price to undergo a moderately strong adjustment, with attention on the resistance level of 12,600 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract was 12,510 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 02 contract spread was -115 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -13,850 lots, a decrease of 3,325 lots, and the main contract position was 85,685 lots, a decrease of 3,729 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel was 61,556 tons, a decrease of 63 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi was 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton, and the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron output was 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons, and the monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 120,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 890 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome was 75.78 tons, a decrease of 2.69 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 180 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons, and the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel was 45.85 tons, a decrease of 2.95 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the monthly output of excavators was 3.09 million units, a decrease of 0.07 million units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 2.19 million units, a decrease of 0.43 million units, and the monthly output of small tractors was 0.9 million units, a decrease of 0.1 million units [2]. f. Industry News - The US September core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. September real personal consumption expenditure was unexpectedly flat month - on - month, and the previous value was revised down from 0.4% to 0.2%. In December, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan dropped to 4.1%, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2% [2]. - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will implement a special action to boost consumption, promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and increase the intensity of inclusive policies directly benefiting consumers; focus on relaxing market access and format integration to expand service consumption. China will actively expand independent opening - up, promote innovative development of trade, and expand the space for two - way investment cooperation [2]. - Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Leading Party Members' Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a seminar to plan the work ideas and measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" and its opening year. He emphasized efforts in strengthening the foundation and creating value, promoting the stable growth of the industrial economy, comprehensively deepening reforms with the focus on addressing "involution - style" competition, ensuring the security of key industrial chains and supply chains, and enhancing security capabilities in areas such as networks, data, and artificial intelligence [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and the inflation rate is expected to drop significantly next year. The bond market is having its best performance since 2020 [2]. g. Viewpoint Summary - At the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2]. - At the supply end, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in output is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - At the demand end, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the stainless steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is beginning to appear. Market purchasing willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. Therefore, the national stainless steel social inventory is showing a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is rising, and the short - selling sentiment is decreasing [2].

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 319200 | 1700 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -610 | 40 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 40175 | -365 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 48471 | -2317 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -420 | -86 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3085 | -90 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6865 | 506 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 295 | -65 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7266 | 583 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 314000 | -800 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 313290 | -1120 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) ...

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 118030 | 240 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -170 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14970 | 85 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 111585 | -6051 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -26832 | 797 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 253116 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 42508 | 1726 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 8622 | 6 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | ...

12月8日，上周五，密歇根大学公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心初值指数从11月的51升至53.3。该调 查涵盖了11月18日至12月1日期间的受访结果。媒体对经济学家的调查中值预期为52。分项指数方面， 整体预期指数从11月的51升至55，创下四个月新高，市场预期为52.7；而反映当前状况的指数则跌至历 史新低，12月密歇根大学消费者现况指数初值50.7，预期52.1，前值51.1。民主党受访者认为，目前的 形势令人担忧，民众情绪从未如此糟糕。而共和党人和民主党人之间的信心差距也从未如此之大。市场 备受关注的通胀预期方面，美国12月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.1%，创下自今年1月以来的最低水 平，预期4.5%，前值4.5%；5年通胀预期初值3.2%，预期3.4%，前值3.4%。 另外，根据美国经济分析局（BEA）上周五公布的数据，美国9月PCE通胀指标如下：美国9月PCE物价 指数环比上涨0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.3%。美国9月PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，预期2.8%，前值 2.7%。虽然较8月上升，但仍处于过去两年的区间内。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美联储最爱 通胀指标核心PCE通胀指标如 ...

海外关注 12 月 FOMC， 国内监管释放"扶优限劣"信号 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 宏观周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ⚫ 海外方面，美国9月核心PCE同比维持在2.8%，符合市场预 期，其中核心商品走高、核心服务降温，巩固12月降息25BP 的预期。密歇根12月消费者信心初值回升至53.3，结束四连 降；1年和5年通胀预期分别降至4.1%和3.2%，均回落至年 初低点，反映居民对未来财务状况与就业的判断有所改善， 通胀预期压力同步缓解。上述数据巩固市场对本月降息25bp 的押注，周五美股小幅走高，10Y美债利率回升至4.12 ...

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1.2↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1615.300 | | 1077.7 | -21.10↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +0.00↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 517.00 | | 357.40 | +0.00↑ | | | EC合约基差 | -100.80 | +25.45↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -749↓ | 31466 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 25.45↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1509.10 | | 960.51 | 11.74↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） -5.50↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1397.63 | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -6.91↓ CCFI（ ...