Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the metals and chemicals industry, emphasizing that these sectors typically perform well during the second phase of a bull market, driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations, as well as demand growth from economic recovery [4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The metals and chemicals sectors are identified as strong cyclical industries that usually do not miss out on bull markets, particularly during the second phase of such markets [4]. - Recent financial reports indicate a recovery in performance for many companies within these sectors, suggesting a positive trend in earnings [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against impulsive buying during market peaks, as this can lead to increased stress and potential losses [3]. - The article highlights the importance of reflecting on missed opportunities, particularly during initial entry points and during low-volume pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the main themes in the market are likely to continue evolving, with fluctuations and rotations occurring within established themes rather than new ones emerging [4]. - It suggests that the current market phase is characterized by residual momentum, indicating that while there may be opportunities, they are part of a broader cyclical pattern [4].

节后第一个交易日（10月9日），有色金属板块断层领涨两市，有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大涨，场 内价格飙涨5.7%，刷新上市以来的高点。截至发稿，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购3420万 份。成份股方面，江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金涨停，西部超导涨超16%，铜陵有色、云南铜业、山 东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨。 天风证券认为，以下三点将支撑贵金属走势：一是避险需求。经济不确定性包括美股估值偏高、美联储 独立性危机、美国和欧洲的财政债务压力、欧美经济增速回升困难等多重因素。政策环境不确定性包括 贸易壁垒、中东局势等地缘风险；二是央行购金仍将发挥正面支撑作用。虽然央行购金速度最快的时期 已过，但各经济体央行出于储备多元化和降低对美元依赖的考虑，仍将保持稳定的购金需求，为黄金价 格提供底部支撑；三是通胀预期因素值得关注。目前看，通胀预期不是本轮行情的主因。但如果小概率 情形下美国发生持久性高通胀，那么黄金对冲通胀的价值将进一步凸显，或推动金价进入新的上行通 道。 不同的有色金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点并不一致，分化在所难免，如果看好有色金属板块，一个比较 轻松的思路是通过全覆盖来更好 ...

值得一提的是，10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高，延续破纪录 涨势。高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4900美元（此前预测为4300美元）。 国庆假期期间，有色金属板块无疑成为了焦点中的焦点，万众期待之下，节后第一个交易日（10月9 日）有色金属板块断层领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大涨，场内价 格飙涨5.39%，刷新上市以来的高点！截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2460万份！ 成份股方面，江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金涨停！西部超导涨超16%，铜陵有色、云南铜业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨！ 上交所数据显示，上一交易日（9月30日），有色龙头ETF（159876）单日吸金3463万元，反映资金看 好板块后市，积极进场抢筹！值得一提的是，截至9月30日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模3.47亿 元，再创历史新高！ 消息面上，据当地时间10月8日，美联储最新发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多 于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次。 业内人士表示，美联储降息周期是一个关键的"慢变量 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铜：供应扰动，推升价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 83,110 | 0.90% | 83680 | 0.69% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,701 | 3.93% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 156,069 | 17,609 | 213,859 | 67 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 17,830 | -2,923 | 321,000 | 2,100 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 26,823 | 1,220 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 139,425 | -3,975 | 5.95% | -0.79% | | | ...

文/康路 发自格林威治 尽管对政策方向颇有批评，鲁宾仍坚信美国的根基牢固。他强调，美国拥有灵活的劳动力市场、无与伦 比的资本市场、顶尖大学与强大的创新文化。然而，他同时警告，美国正在"自我削弱"——攻击大学、 削减科研预算、收紧移民政策等行为都在损害长期竞争力。 对于近期黄金价格的上涨，鲁宾态度平静。他认为，黄金只是一种心理避险工具，没有使用价值，也无 法作为判断宏观趋势的依据。"几千年来，人们在不确定中寻求安全感，"但他表示，不会把金价当作经 济方向的信号。 鲁宾被认为是克林顿时代经济繁荣的重要推手，主导推动了1993年赤字削减法案和1997年平衡预算法案 的通过。 责任编辑：郝欣煜 问及对关税的看法，鲁宾坦言，开放贸易在过去曾极大地造福美国经济，而新一轮关税政策方向错误。 他解释说，关税并非持续性的通胀，而是一种"一次性的成本上升"，会提高生产者成本，削弱企业竞争 力，并最终通过价格传导给消费者。他引用已故美联储前主席保罗·沃尔克的话强调，一旦通胀预期被 点燃，就很难遏制。市场上有人将关税视为财政增收手段，但鲁宾认为这是严重的误判。他认为，关税 收入在整体赤字中只是杯水车薪，最终伤害的将是普通消费者和经济 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant rise in consumer inflation expectations in the U.S., particularly among low-income and less-educated groups, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing from 3.2% in August to 3.4% in September, marking a recent high [1] - The five-year inflation expectation slightly increased from 2.9% to 3%, while the three-year expectation remained stable at 3% [1] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring changes in consumer inflation expectations to assess whether recent tariff policies will lead to temporary price increases or more persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - Consumer confidence continues to weaken, reflecting the dual pressures of high inflation and a slowing job market, with expectations of rising unemployment over the next 12 months [1] - There is a slight recovery in consumer confidence regarding job availability in the next three months, following a record decline in August [1] - In terms of personal financial situations, there is a divergence in consumer sentiment, with an increase in respondents believing their current financial situation has improved compared to last year, while those expecting their financial situation to worsen in the next year also increased, indicating fragile confidence in the economic outlook [2]

甲骨文被爆云利润率逊色，引发大型科技及消费股的抛售，从而拖累美股大盘。此外，通胀预期上升和美国政府关门持续，也为市场回调提供了宏观背景。 标普、纳指早盘在创下历史新高后下挫，标普七日连涨势头终结。 周三美股三大指数悉数收跌，标普终结七连涨。美国小盘股指收跌超1.1%，半导体指数跌超2%。矿业公司Trilogy Metals因获美国政府入股，暴涨超 210%。中概指数收跌超2.2%，小马智行跌超7.7%。 美股基准股指： 美股行业ETF： 芯片ETF下挫2.24%，可选消费跌1.72%，AI机器人板块跌1.58%。必选消费则涨0.92%，公用事业涨0.45%。 以下是核心资产走势： （美股基准股指日内走势） 美股早盘，美股三大指数小幅高开，科技股多数上涨。，戴尔科技大幅上调业绩预期，盘初一度涨逾6.1%后回落。贵金属市场表现抢眼， COMEX 12月黄金期货历史上首次突破4,000美元/盎司大关。 美股盘中，市场情绪在盘中出现逆转。，甲骨文备受关注的云业务被爆利润率逊色，股价一度大跌超7%，拖累大盘走低。同时，显示美国 短期通胀预期创五个月新高，也给市场带来一定压力。 美股午盘，市场抛售压力加剧，纳指一度跌超0 ...

Core Insights - Inflation expectations are rising, with one-year expectations increasing by 0.2% to 3.4%, the highest since April 2025 [2] - Concerns about unemployment are also increasing, with expectations for higher unemployment rising by two percentage points to 41.1%, the highest since April 2025 [3] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3% [2] - Five-year inflation expectations increased by 0.1% to 3%, the highest since May 2024 [2] - Expectations for food prices have reached their highest level since March 2023 [2] Labor Market Insights - Earnings growth expectations have declined by 0.1% to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive decline and the lowest since May 2021 [3] - Job loss expectations increased by 0.4% to 14.9%, the highest since April 2025 [4] - Despite rising job loss expectations, the outlook for finding a job improved by 2.5 points, although it remains near pandemic lows [4] Spending and Economic Outlook - Spending growth expectations have decreased by 0.3% to 4.7% [5] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges regarding its inflation target, as the five-year inflation outlook has remained at 3% for an extended period [7] - There are discussions about the impact of supply-side policies and immigration changes on inflation expectations [8]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美联储：美国9月一年期通胀预期3.4%，前值3.2%。 三年期通胀预期持稳于3%。 五年期通胀预期3%， 前值2.9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks amid high inflation rates, raising questions about the motivations and implications of potential further rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Motivation and Policy Logic - The change in risk assessment indicates that the Fed prioritizes employment concerns over inflation, with a consensus that moderate rate cuts can mitigate employment deterioration without significantly impacting inflation expectations [2][3]. - The reassessment of inflation structure shows that while supply chain issues and tariffs affect prices, the overall impact on consumer prices remains moderate, allowing for limited rate cuts to buffer demand-side pressures [4][5]. - The operational principles emphasize gradual rate cuts, data dependency, and reversibility to balance restrictive financial conditions with avoiding an economic downturn [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Employment and Inflation - Rate cuts are expected to first benefit interest-sensitive sectors, easing corporate cash flow pressures and potentially stabilizing hiring and working hours over 1-2 quarters [6][7]. - The inflation trajectory is anticipated to stabilize rather than escalate, with limited demand-side stimulus from the rate cuts, allowing for a controlled approach to managing inflation expectations [7][8]. Group 3: Effects on Developing Countries' Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is likely to influence global financial conditions, leading to capital flows towards emerging markets and a weaker dollar, which can alleviate debt burdens for developing countries [8][9]. - For China, the Fed's rate cut provides external support for monetary policy, suggesting a cautious approach to avoid exacerbating asset volatility while leveraging external conditions for internal economic stability [9][10].