证 券 研 究 报 告 2026年黄金配置指南：供需新格局与战术择时策略 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 展望2026年黄金：战略层面，美国财政赤字居高不下+去美元化长期趋势持续（全球央行购金）背景下，金价长期仍有上涨空间。2026 年金价年内战术择时需重点关注美国周期性变化下的美债利率走 势与波动率等交易性指标，相比2025年，2026年美国利率周期边际变化和交易性力量的增加或提升黄金波动性，需要加强战术择时。 ◼ 2026年黄金战略配置逻辑关注供需格局变化和美元信用，中期仍有上行空间。供需格局来看，2022 年以来的金价上涨核心源于黄金供需缺口扩大，而缺口扩大的核心驱动力是需求大幅增加。2022年 以来央行购金是主要需求增量，而2025年ETF需求出现加速回升。1）央行与官方机构购金方面，欧美债务风险与地缘政治风险叠加，以中国为首的央行对黄金的配置性需求趋势将持续，支撑黄金长期 战略配置价值。截至 2025 年 8 月，中国黄金占储备资产比例仅 7%，显著低于 22.4% 的全球平均水平，仍有较大上行空间。而俄罗斯近年阶段性黄金抛售并未阻碍金价系统性牛市，历史数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new heights, with international gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On December 23 and 24, international gold prices broke through $4500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4525.83 per ounce in London and $4555.1 per ounce in COMEX [1] - The domestic gold T+D reached a high of 1016.72 yuan per gram [1] - The overall logic supporting precious metal prices remains unchanged, primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of future monetary policy [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The worsening situation in Venezuela, including the U.S. seizure of oil tankers, has been a significant driver for the recent rise in gold prices [2] - Continued attacks on Russian energy facilities in Ukraine have also contributed to the upward trend in precious metals [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Weak U.S. non-farm employment growth and lower-than-expected inflation data have reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - The U.S. dollar index has declined from around 100 to approximately 98, with a cumulative drop of over 10% this year, providing support for dollar-denominated precious metals [2] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The fundamental logic supporting the gold bull market remains intact, with expectations of continued monetary easing and a trend towards de-dollarization [5] - The market's focus has shifted from tariff negotiations to interest rate cuts, with the potential for increased inflation if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [4]

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices have surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 71%, setting a new historical record [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The surge in gold prices is part of a broader rally in precious metals, with silver prices increasing over 90%, palladium nearly 80%, and platinum around 50% since August [1] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by anticipations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, amplified by thin market liquidity towards the year-end [1] Group 2: Gold ETFs and Investment Trends - Domestic gold-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen significant growth, with two main types: those tracking gold industry stocks and those tracking spot gold prices [1] - As of December 23, mainstream gold commodity ETFs have collectively risen over 62% this year, while gold stock ETFs have increased by more than 90% [2] - The total scale of all gold-related ETFs has grown by 177.1 billion yuan, reaching a total of 247.8 billion yuan, with six ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Demand - Analysts from JPMorgan predict that gold prices may have over 10% upside potential in the coming year, with global gold ETF net additions expected to reach approximately 250 tons in 2026 [3] - The current bull market in gold is characterized by its unique features, including the simultaneous rise of gold and risk assets like stocks, and gold outperforming traditional safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to avoid heavy short-term investments in gold and maintain a rational allocation, suggesting a 5% to 10% allocation of household financial assets to gold as reasonable [4] - The focus should be on long-term trends rather than precise price predictions, as the underlying logic supporting gold remains intact amid global geopolitical changes and the trend of de-dollarization [4]

Group 1 - The core driver of the gold bull market remains unchanged, with gold prices rising due to expectations of Trump's re-election and ongoing global trade disputes [2][4] - The trend of de-dollarization is significant, as central banks worldwide are increasingly converting dollar reserves into gold, indicating a potential long-term depreciation of the dollar [4] - The expectation of monetary easing is intensifying, with the new Federal Reserve chairman under pressure to significantly lower interest rates, which could further undermine the dollar's credibility [5][6] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as potential conflicts involving Iran, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] - The ongoing damage to the dollar's credibility is identified as the core driving force behind the gold bull market, suggesting that this factor will continue to support gold prices [7]

Group 1: Silver Market - The main silver contract surged by 8.12%, closing at 17,609 yuan/kg, driven by strong bullish sentiment in the market [1][5] - Global silver ETFs saw significant inflows, with the largest ETF, SLV, recording a single-day inflow of 533 tons, marking the fourth-largest inflow in history [1][6] - COMEX silver delivery notices continue to rise, indicating persistent demand without signs of easing delivery pressure [1][6] - Short-term predictions suggest potential for further price increases before the December delivery, but caution is advised due to high chasing risks [1][6] - International silver prices increased by 3.54%, reaching $71.45/oz, breaking the $70 mark and showing upward momentum [1][6] Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market - Platinum and palladium contracts both hit the limit up, with platinum recording a 7% increase, closing at 657.65 yuan/g [2][7] - Economic resilience and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve support the bullish outlook for precious metals [2][7] - The strong performance of gold provides confidence for market participants to buy silver, platinum, and palladium, with significant support from the gold-silver ratio [2][7] - Short-term forecasts indicate that platinum group metals are likely to maintain a strong trend, with potential for further price increases [2][7] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 5.89%, reaching 124,720 yuan/ton, marking a two-year high [3][8] - The price increase is driven by limited supply elasticity, optimistic demand forecasts for 2026, and strong market sentiment [3][8] - Demand is expected to grow by 30% next year, driven by strong performance in energy storage and related sectors [3][8] - Despite the upcoming traditional off-season for demand, low inventory levels provide strong support for prices [4][9] - Market volatility is expected in the short term, with a focus on the actual progress of major manufacturers' production resumption [4][9]

在各种利好刺激之下，稀有金属走出波澜壮阔的行情，广期所铂金主力期货罕见走出三连板行情！ 12月24日，在国际黄金、白银价格接连刷新历史纪录的刺激下，广期所上市交易的铂金期货、钯金期货 全部涨停。铂金主力期货在开盘经过换手之后，便牢牢封住涨停，大涨7%，报657.65元/克，走出惊人 的三连板行情，截止收盘，铂金2606、2608、2610、2612合约全部涨停，其中铂金2606、2608、2612合 约大涨7%，2610合约大涨12%。自11月27日上市以来，在短短20个交易日中，铂金大涨49.13%，区间 最大涨幅超过54%。 | | 铂主连 | | --- | --- | | | pt99999 | | 657.65 | 657.65 振幅 0.62% = 15803 | | | 653.85 昨空 614.65 持仓 39147 | | PROCESS | 异动解读: 白宫再次呼吁降息+拍把价格相 ... ● × | | 分时 日K | 周K 月K 五日 #8 v | | | 前星权 筹码 | | 657.65 668,50 -------- | | | 605.16 | | | 541.83 | | ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $4500 per ounce for the first time in history, with a cumulative increase of over 71% this year [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1411 RMB per gram, an increase of 8 RMB from the previous day, and 44 RMB from December 22 [1] - The increase in gold prices is supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and safe-haven demand, with expectations for gold to continue its upward trend after a period of high volatility [1] Group 2 - A report from Dongfang Jincheng indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate in November confirms a weakening labor market, which supports expectations for continued monetary easing and further increases in gold prices [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice to enhance market risk control due to increasing instability and volatility in precious metal prices, urging members to improve risk prevention awareness [3] - The largest gold jewelry wholesale market in China, Shenzhen Shui Bei, has made significant adjustments to its pricing system, no longer distinguishing between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [3][4] Group 3 - The adjustment in the pricing system at Shui Bei is attributed to the recent tax reforms affecting the profitability of member and non-member units, as well as to avoid misleading consumers [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. recently approved a record $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including offensive weapons such as M109A7 self-propelled howitzers and HIMARS long-range strike systems, aimed at enhancing Taiwan's military capabilities and complicating China's efforts for reunification [1] - The arms sale is seen as a political tool by U.S. politicians, particularly as the midterm elections approach, with Trump leveraging it to appeal to conservative factions and the military-industrial complex while diverting attention from domestic issues [1] - Taiwan's defense budget is expected to exceed 3% of its GDP due to the costly arms acquisition, leading to a potential cycle of debt and economic strain, as funds are diverted from social welfare to military spending [9] Group 2 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to $688.7 billion, the lowest since 2008, signaling a strategic decision to lower risk and reduce dependence on dollar assets amid rising U.S. debt and fiscal instability [3] - The Chinese military has demonstrated its capabilities with increased activity around Taiwan, including the deployment of aircraft and naval vessels, indicating a strong military response to perceived provocations [5] - The disparity in military capabilities between China and Taiwan is stark, with Taiwan's military relying heavily on imports and facing challenges in self-production, while China's military strength continues to grow, complicating the security landscape in the region [7] Group 3 - The U.S. strategy of arming Taiwan and rallying allies like Japan and Australia is becoming less effective as American hegemony declines, with concerns over the credibility of the dollar increasing due to China's actions [9] - The arms sale is unlikely to resolve the U.S. economic challenges or support Taiwan's independence aspirations, as the military assets acquired may not enhance security but rather hinder Taiwan's economic development [9] - Historically, the process of national reunification is viewed as irreversible, with external interventions and internal resistance unable to alter the eventual outcome of Taiwan's return to China [10]

央广网北京12月24日消息（记者王吉星）据中央广播电视总台经济之声报道，今年以来，全球贵金属价 格集体飙涨，黄金、白银、铂金等品种均创下历史新高。贵金属价格为何"狂飙"？白银涨成"年度黑 马"的真相是什么？黄金牛市中为何也会亏钱？总台记者专访华夏基金高级策略分析师陈彦冰。 "上涨也能成为上涨的理由" 今年以来，贵金属已成为全球资本市场中最具爆发力的资产之一。黄金全年创下超50次的历史新高，年 内累计涨幅约65%；白银涨幅更是达120%左右，显著跑赢黄金；铂、钯亦加速补涨，今年以来涨幅分 别超过90%、60%。 "几类贵金属品种虽有区别，但同属贵金属家族，其上涨的底层逻辑相通。"陈彦冰认为，以黄金上涨为 例，可以从三个维度理解：一是海外央行降息周期的预期；二是"去美元化"浪潮下，各国央行的配置需 求，构成这轮金价上涨的核心长期逻辑；三是地缘政治的不确定和避险情绪。此外，"上涨也能成为上 涨的理由。"贵金属因为也具备金融属性，所以也具有和其他金融资产一样的自我强化逻辑。 2026年贵金属投资建议 一、保持在场，但要用配置思维来看待，降低预期； 二、分清黄金和其他贵金属的定位，用核心+卫星策略配置； 三、谨慎加杠杆 ...

Group 1 - The current mainstream narrative in dollar trading includes "de-dollarization," where central banks are seen as potential long-term buyers of gold, but they did not show significant buying activity during the 30% price surge from August to October 2025 [3][12] - The second perspective focuses on the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, with a close correlation between gold price increases and expectations of rate cuts, although the historical significance of these expectations during the price surges remains unclear [3][17] - The third perspective examines the source of rigid demand from the private sector, suggesting that the influx of funds into gold ETFs indicates a shift away from U.S. Treasury securities due to perceived risks, making gold an attractive alternative [4][26] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the largest opportunity for gold in 2026 may arise in February, coinciding with potential increases in U.S. national debt and traditional peaks in Treasury issuance, which could drive demand for gold [5][30] - The analysis indicates that the relationship between gold price movements and the inventory levels of primary dealers in U.S. Treasuries is significant, suggesting that monitoring Treasury refinancing plans may provide better insights into gold buying opportunities [4][28] - The report highlights that the rigid demand for gold is primarily driven by long-term investors, such as insurance funds and central banks, who require long-duration assets to match their liabilities, especially in light of concerns over U.S. Treasury reliability [29][30]