Group 1: Macro News - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, indicated that the U.S. labor market is cooling but does not expect a significant slowdown. He warned that failing to achieve inflation targets for years could damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of a 45,000 increase, while October saw a decrease of 105,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.5% [2] Group 2: Institutional Views - Based on the latest U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve policy signals, the gold and silver markets may experience short-term fluctuations with potential upward movements but lack follow-through. The unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% has raised concerns about economic cooling, providing technical rebound momentum for gold and silver prices [3] - The significant increase in non-farm payrolls indicates that the labor market remains robust. The emphasis from the Atlanta Fed President on the risks of premature rate cuts reinforces expectations for a restrictive monetary policy, which is likely to limit the upside potential for gold and silver prices [3] - Overall, while market sentiment may see temporary boosts from data fluctuations, the clear commitment of the Federal Reserve to control inflation suggests that gold and silver prices will face significant pressure at relatively high levels, with risks of pullbacks accumulating after any upward movements [3]

Core Insights - The upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated on Wall Street, as it will be the first data release since the end of the recent government shutdown [1] - Economists predict a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, with a core CPI growth rate of 3.0% when excluding food and energy [1] - The report will not include month-over-month percentage changes due to missing October data, which was affected by the government shutdown [1] Economic Predictions - If the CPI reading is 2.9%, it could provide positive momentum for the stock market heading into 2026, potentially clearing the way for a "Santa Claus rally" [2] - A reading of 2.9% would also influence the interest rate outlook for the following year, with expectations for a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Market Reactions - There is skepticism regarding the impact of a 0.1 percentage point fluctuation in the CPI, as some analysts believe it may not lead to significant market reactions [3] - The lack of month-over-month data and uncertainty about when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will begin collecting November data are seen as complicating factors [3] Economic Uncertainty - Analysts express concerns about conflicting economic indicators, such as weak unemployment trends and consumer spending, juxtaposed with expectations of 14% profit growth next year [4] - There is a call for more information before making definitive judgments about the long-term economic outlook [4]

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is highly anticipated as it will be the first inflation data released since the end of the recent government shutdown, with expectations of a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1% and a core CPI of 3.0% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that if the CPI shows a reading of 2.9%, it could create positive momentum for the stock market and influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, potentially leading to a rate cut in 2026 [2][4] - Morgan Stanley warns that the CPI data is expected to confirm persistent inflation pressures, driven by rising housing costs and resilient commodity prices, with core inflation projected to remain around 3% [4][5] Group 1: CPI Report Expectations - The CPI report is set to be released on Thursday, including the unadjusted CPI year-on-year and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month [1] - The report is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, with core CPI anticipated at 3.0% [1][2] - Analysts express that the psychological difference between inflation rates in the 2s and 3s will be crucial for market sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the CPI reading is 2.9%, it may pave the way for a "Santa Claus rally" in the stock market and influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [2][3] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the lack of monthly data could complicate the interpretation of the CPI report, but overall signals point to ongoing inflationary pressures [4][5] - The report's limitations may lead to a muted market response, but the overarching theme will likely be that inflation remains elevated [3][5] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The report comes after a significant government shutdown, which has affected data collection and may lead to questions about the accuracy of the inflation figures [3] - Analysts highlight the uncertainty in the economic outlook, with conflicting indicators such as weak unemployment trends and strong profit growth expectations [3][4] - The potential rebound in housing inflation and resilient commodity prices suggest that inflation pressures are not confined to the service sector [5]

今日周四(12月18日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于66.33一线上方，今日开盘于66.21美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报66.36美元/盎司，上涨0.28%，最高触及66.59美元/盎司，最低下探65.54美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 特朗普给自己在经济方面的表现打了"A+++++"的最高分，同时坚称其政府需要更多时间来补救他所说的拜登留下的烂 摊子。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银昨日强势上攻，继续破高，日线RSI位于超买区附近，4小时守住65关口支撑，短线走势仍强劲，65.50上方可 维持低多思路。今日国际白银下方关注65.40美元或64.40美元支撑，上方关注67.70美元或68.45美元阻力。 多项调查显示，美国民众对生活成本和通胀感到担忧，这种担忧助推民主党对手在11月选举中取得关键胜利，并对特朗 普和共和党在将决定国会控制权及其立法议程未来的2026年中期选举构成重大威胁。 路透社/益普索周二发布的一项民调显示，特朗普的支持率已下滑至其第二任期以来的最低点附近，仅有39%的美国成年 人认可其工作表现。 特朗普本人在经济问题上不一致的表态使其任务更加艰巨。这位总 ...

分析指出，2025年以来卢比的持续走弱主要受外部因素驱动，而非印度国内经济基本面恶化。 关于卢比未来走势，市场观点存在分歧。印度国家银行（SBI）在其最新报告中预测，卢比有望在2026 年10月至2027年3月期间实现强劲复苏。但澳新银行则强调，在印美贸易协议取得实质性进展前，卢比 仍可能面临进一步贬值压力。Nim指出，印度央行未来的外汇干预力度将成为决定汇率路径的关键变 量，而从2027财年起，通胀水平也将成为评估卢比竞争力的重要指标。 澳新银行（ANZ）研究部策略师Dhiraj Nim在报告中指出，卢比已成为今年亚洲表现最弱的货币之一， 主因包括美国对印度商品加征高额关税以及外国投资组合资金大规模外流。 （文章来源：新华财经） 亚洲交易时段盘中，美元兑印度卢比延续隔夜跌势。该货币对在17日早盘触及91.10的历史高点后迅速 回落，盘中最低下探至89.93，最终报收于90.39，创下两个月来最大单日涨幅。 数据显示，印度11月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比仅上涨0.7%，远低于央行设定的4%通胀目标区间下 限。不过，央行预计2026年第一季度通胀将回升至2.9%。同期，GDP增速预计将从2025年第三季度的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal of the anti-involution initiative is to reverse the deflation trend, with the transmission chain being "deflation → anti-involution → profit improvement → inflation" [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The anti-involution approach aims to restore confidence and break the deflation cycle by ensuring reasonable profits across various sectors [1] - In the coal industry, short-term focus is on supply control, while medium to long-term focus is on demand recovery [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Recent accelerated decline in coal prices has raised market concerns; however, the anti-involution remains a key economic agenda for the coming year [1] - If coal prices fall to excessively low levels, policies aimed at stabilizing expectations are anticipated [1] Group 3: Investment Instruments - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The index is considered highly representative of the industry and focuses on coal-related investments [1]

摘要今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4324.09美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4333.89美元/盎司，跌幅0.08%，最高上探至4342.65美元/盎司，最低触及4323.93美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4324.09美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4333.89美元/盎司，跌幅0.08%，最高上探至4342.65美元/盎司，最低触及4323.93美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 特朗普周三在白宫黄金时段宣布，将向145万军人发放1776美元"战士红利"补贴(呼应1776年建国)，试 图安抚对其经济管理能力的质疑、缓解民众生活成本焦虑。此举被官方定位为展示其重返白宫首年政 绩、预告2026年新政的窗口，却恰逢其面临公众对通胀与经济议程的日益担忧——选民当初因不满拜登 时期通胀将其送回白宫，如今特朗普却重陷类似阻力：民调显示其支持率跌至二任期最低(仅39%认 可)，民主党借生活成本议题在11月选举关键获胜，威胁2026年中期选举控权。 特朗普一面将通胀归咎拜登("接手48年最严重烂摊子 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory remained stable at 1119.46 tons as of December 17, 2025, unchanged from the previous trading day [1][2] - On December 17, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $4373.40 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.93%, with an intraday high of $4383.60 and a low of $4330.70 [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained vigilance regarding inflation despite announcing interest rate cuts, with internal divisions on risk balance among members [2] - Some Federal Reserve members express concerns about the lasting impact of tariffs and potential tightening in the labor market, which could elevate inflation, while others focus on the risks of declining inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve has adopted a highly flexible policy approach, moving away from a clear preset path due to above-target inflation levels, varied economic outlooks, and uncertain external shocks [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level in eight months, leading traders to believe that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates soon [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate for November fell to 3.2%, down from 3.6% in October and below the expected 3.5% [1][6] - The decline in inflation is attributed mainly to a decrease in food prices, which typically rise at this time of year, and a slight easing in the service sector inflation rate from 4.5% in October to 4.4% [1][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, suggesting that the neutral interest rate may be 50 to 100 basis points away [1][7] - Waller emphasized that the Fed can gradually lower rates to neutral levels without rushing, as inflation is expected to moderate [1][7] - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank [2][7]

今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于15493一线上方，今日开盘于15447元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报15523元/千克，上涨3.45%，最高触及15666元/千克，最低下探15224元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 数百万美国消费者一直在等待特朗普总统的关税措施引发消费品价格急剧上涨，将通胀率推入危险区 域。他们仍在等待。 但许多美国人预期关税会大幅推高通胀。经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示："好消息是关税对经济的影响比表 面看起来要小。" 另外，在12月10日的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示，未来几个月美国几乎无需担心关 税引发的通胀。 鲍威尔表示，与关税相关的通胀应会在2026年初见顶。他说，其影响"应该不会很大"，可能"只有零点 几个百分点，甚至更少"。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银主力价格目前涨超3%，盘中同步刷新高点至15666元/千克。移动平均线趋同/背离（MACD）处于 正区间，表明仍有上涨动能。沪银溢价维持至340元/克。沪银看涨情绪依旧高涨，沪银主力合约参考运 行区间15100-15900。 ...