智通财经APP获悉，尽管美股已基本收复4月份因关税冲击造成的跌幅，美元的走势却远未恢复元气。 2025年以来，ICE美元指数已下跌约8.8%，跌至99以下，创下至少自上世纪80年代中期以来最疲弱的年 度开局。分析指出，美元的这轮走软不仅源于市场动荡，更反映出特朗普政府的贸易政策正在改变全球 投资者对美元在其资产配置中的定位。 在经历数年的强势上涨之后，美元正在遭遇一轮显著回调。法国巴黎资产管理公司的外汇投资组合经理 Peter Vassallo认为，"我们可能正进入美元的一个更长期下行阶段。虽然关税最坏情形的风险已下降， 美国政策的不确定性和对外贸易的敌意依旧存在。" State Street高级全球宏观策略师Marvin Loh也表示："美元确实有进一步下行的空间。"回顾历史，自 2002年起美元曾经历长达6年的贬值周期，彼时欧元强势崛起，如今类似的格局似乎正在重演。 当前支撑美元反弹的希望并不多，反而新的不确定因素仍在累积。例如，特朗普政府在其支付法案中提 出的第899条款，拟赋予白宫向外国投资者征收"复仇税"的权力，若这些投资者来自对美实行"不公平税 收政策"的国家。 一个更深层次的风险在于：投资者，尤 ...

Domestic Market Performance - The stock market continued its upward momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rising by 0.42%, 0.43%, and 0.28% respectively, while the technology sector's gains were in line with the overall market [2] - The bond market saw a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which fell by 0.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [2] - The commodity market showed positive performance, particularly in coal, which rebounded by 7.19% due to production cuts and expectations of supply constraints [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations slightly exceeded expectations, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity, with a net withdrawal of only 6 billion yuan [3] - The current market consensus suggests that the bond market risks are low, but a significant change would require the central bank to restart bond purchases [4] - The probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in June is estimated at 50%, influenced by the need to alleviate banks' liability pressures [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume reaching 1.18 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [5] - The market is currently in a range-bound trading pattern, with the Wande All A Index fluctuating within a 2% range since May 7 [5] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF has decreased from 18.21 at the end of April to 14.92, reflecting a lower expectation of future market volatility [5][7] Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks continue to perform well, with the CSI 2000 and Wande Micro Cap indices rising by 1.06% and 1.20% respectively, indicating strong interest in these segments [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are the main focus for capital allocation, with notable performances in areas such as AI and new consumption trends [6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.60% and 0.57%, with new consumption and biotechnology being the primary drivers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

自5月20日国有大行率先启动降息以来，股份制银行、城商行、农商行以及民营银行迅速响应。这轮调 整中，一年期定期存款利率降至0.95%—0.98%，五年期定期存款利率下调至1.3%。相较于去年10月的 降息周期，此次银行跟进速度明显加快。 "对于投资者来说，存款利率下调以后，如何顺应方向调整资产配置成为关注的焦点，另外，怎么平衡 收益和风险同样重要。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼在接受《金融时报》记 者采访时表示。 在传统银行储蓄的"躺赚"时代即将结束之际，一场全民理财意识觉醒的浪潮正在到来。 《金融时报》记者发现，"货币基金+债基+黄金"的"新三金"配置正在成为投资者特别是年轻投资者 的"新宠"。 根据蚂蚁财富最新公布的数据，截至2025年4月底，有937万名"90后""00后"同时配置了余额宝货币基 金、债券基金、黄金基金，带动了一股"新三金"的风潮。 中国银行研究院研究员梁斯对此分析认为，在利率体系持续下行带动下，传统存款类产品收益率同步走 低，投资者为拓宽收益来源，更好实现资产保值增值的需要，选择加大对"新三金"(货币基金、债券基 金、黄金基金)的投资力度，在风险相对较低的情况下，获 ...

Group 1: Quantitative Finance Research Overview - A total of 80 new quantitative finance-related research papers were added this month, with the following distribution: 31 on equity research, 4 on fund research, 8 on bond research, 9 on asset allocation, 3 on machine learning applications in finance, and 22 on ESG-related research[1] - Equity research covers various topics including investor behavior biases, asset pricing models, and market structure distortions, impacting capital markets[2] - Bond research focuses on interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and other bond markets, analyzing high-frequency inflation forecasting and pricing distortion mechanisms[2] Group 2: Specific Findings in Research - High-frequency online inflation rates predict yield curve slope factors with a contribution rate of 61%[22] - The sovereign risk premium in the Eurozone is primarily driven by credit risk premiums, with Italy accounting for 78% of this effect[22] - Climate disasters lead to a temporary premium for green bonds over brown bonds, which diminishes within five months due to behavioral overreaction[24] Group 3: Machine Learning and Risk Management - Machine learning models significantly improve the prediction of implied volatility, showing economic value superior to traditional models[38] - The GraphSAGE model enhances credit risk prediction accuracy by 19% through integrating stock returns, risk spillovers, and trading networks[38] - Long Memory Stochastic Interval Models (LMSR) capture persistent characteristics in volatility, reducing out-of-sample prediction loss by 38%[38]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high-end real estate market in China, highlighting its resilience and growth potential amidst broader market adjustments [9][10]. Core Insights - The high-end residential market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in transactions, particularly in cities like Shanghai, which saw 2,600 units sold for properties priced over 30 million yuan in 2024, outperforming other major cities combined [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end residential properties as a key component of asset allocation for high-net-worth individuals, driven by increasing wealth and demand for quality living spaces [10]. - The analysis covers macroeconomic conditions, market structure, product innovation, and investment value, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders in the real estate sector [10]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Background - China's economic growth is projected to remain between 4.5% and 5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected throughout the year [11]. - The real estate policy environment is focused on stabilizing the market, with measures aimed at promoting recovery and supporting high-end residential demand [13][14]. - Financial support for housing rental and development is being enhanced, with various initiatives to facilitate investment in rental housing [14][17]. High-End Residential Market Stratification and Structural Characteristics - The high-end residential market is categorized into three segments: ultra-luxury, luxury, and improvement-type high-end residences, each with distinct characteristics [19][20]. - Shanghai leads the market, with significant sales figures in the ultra-luxury segment, indicating strong demand and market vitality [20][21]. - The report notes a clear differentiation in market performance across first, second, and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing the most robust activity [24][26]. Trends in High-End Residential Product Innovation - The report identifies a wave of product innovation in the high-end residential sector, focusing on design, technology, and functional enhancements [32]. - Key trends include the rise of fourth-generation residential products, increased usable area, and innovative designs for large flat units [33][34]. - The integration of smart home systems and sustainable materials is becoming increasingly prevalent, reflecting a shift towards environmentally conscious luxury living [43][45]. Investment Value Analysis of High-End Residential Market - The report analyzes rental yield and investment return comparisons, indicating favorable conditions for high-end residential investments [4.1][4.2]. - It highlights the growing interest from high-net-worth individuals in diversifying their asset portfolios through high-end real estate [5.1][5.2]. - The potential for future growth in the high-end market is supported by ongoing policy initiatives and demographic trends favoring urbanization and quality living [5.3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the small-cap stock market and investment strategies within the A-share market Core Points and Arguments 1. **Small-Cap Stock Performance**: In May, small-cap stocks outperformed with an absolute return of over 2 percentage points, confirming the accuracy of the model's predictions. The outlook for June leans further towards small-cap stocks due to macroeconomic factors, market sentiment, and market conditions [1][3][4] 2. **Asset Allocation Views**: The current stance is optimistic towards domestic commodity assets, neutral to optimistic on stock assets, and cautious on bonds. The macro expectation model indicates a cautious view on stocks, neutral on bonds, and optimistic on commodities [5][6] 3. **Industry Rotation Model**: The industry rotation model shows rapid market rotation, with a focus on liquidity, momentum, and research information. In May, the portfolio included banking, home appliances, comprehensive finance, non-ferrous metals, electronic science and technology chips, and steel, achieving a total return of 3.7%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.7% [7][8] 4. **Recommended Industries for June**: The recommended sectors for June include comprehensive services, consumer services, telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishing, steel, and electronics. The comprehensive sector has a high liquidity score, while agriculture and steel have advantages in research information [7][8] 5. **Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategy**: The small-cap stock selection strategy performed best in May, with a focus on growth and small-cap strategies. The low attention stock selection strategy yielded a return of 9.6%, while the new stock selection strategy returned 7.5% [2][10] 6. **Investment Recommendations for June**: The analysis suggests focusing on dividend and small-cap selection strategies due to their improved cost-effectiveness compared to growth strategies [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment Indicators**: Indicators such as Tianhong Fund's fundraising amount, the proportion of stocks hitting new highs, and the options PCR are all favorable for small-cap stocks [3][4] 2. **Risks to Monitor**: Potential risks include policy changes, sentiment fluctuations, and crowded institutional holdings that could impact small-cap stock performance [4] 3. **Quantitative Models Performance**: The quantitative models developed by the team have shown varying degrees of success, with the reinforcement learning factor extraction model maintaining an 11% cumulative return, outperforming the benchmark by 3.5 percentage points [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that both gold and Bitcoin are preferred assets in the context of financial order reconstruction and risk aversion scenarios, with Bitcoin potentially outperforming gold in certain market conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Market Context and Trends - Recent concerns regarding sovereign debt, particularly in Japan and the U.S., highlight the risks associated with national credit, while gold and Bitcoin have shown stronger performance compared to other assets since the trade war began [2]. - The historical price movements of Bitcoin and gold reveal their commonalities and differences, providing insights into their current allocation value and future trends [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bitcoin - Bitcoin has experienced two distinct eras since its inception in 2009, characterized by four market cycles, with the current phase being the fourth bull market [3]. - The first era (2009-2018) was marked by limited growth, while the second era (2019-present) has seen widespread adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method [3]. Group 3: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold has undergone three bull markets and one bear market since 2009, with a general upward trend in prices [4]. - The first bull market (2009-2011) saw gold prices rise from $900 to nearly $1900 per ounce, while the second bear market (2012-2015) saw prices drop from $1895 to $1049.4 per ounce, a total decline of 44.6% [4]. Group 4: Commonalities and Differences between Bitcoin and Gold - Both Bitcoin and gold share characteristics of scarcity and serve as borderless currencies, which have driven their price trends since 2009 [5][6]. - The supply of gold is limited by annual mining output, while Bitcoin's supply is capped and undergoes halving every four years [6]. Group 5: Pricing Logic and Sensitivity - The value of both assets is sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with their relative value increasing during periods of liquidity expansion and decreasing during contractions [7]. - Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against instability in sovereign currencies, with their decentralized nature allowing them to mitigate the effects of sovereign credit risks [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold - Both gold and Bitcoin are expected to perform well in scenarios of financial order reconstruction, with Bitcoin's growth potential suggesting a higher price ceiling compared to gold [10][15]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the restructuring of global financial markets may lead to an expansion in the market value of both gold and Bitcoin [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bank wealth management market continues to grow steadily, with a total scale exceeding 30 trillion yuan as of May 26 [1] - In the context of declining deposit rates, banks are adjusting their deposit rates below 2%, which has led to increased investor interest in wealth management products [1] - In the first quarter of this year, bank wealth management products generated a total return of 206 billion yuan for investors, with wealth management companies contributing significantly to this return [1] Group 2 - The bank wealth management market is primarily focused on fixed-income products, but there is a growing diversity in product offerings, including mixed, equity, commodity, and financial derivatives [2] - Many small and medium-sized banks are enhancing their wealth management offerings and optimizing their distribution channels to attract investors [2] - In the first quarter, the asset allocation of bank wealth management products was dominated by fixed-income assets, with bonds, cash, and bank deposits accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of total investment assets, respectively [2] Group 3 - In the low deposit interest rate environment, the value of equity assets is becoming more prominent, and investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when allocating equity assets [3] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, combining defensive assets like cash and bonds with growth-oriented equity assets [3] - Long-term investment perspectives are encouraged to smooth out short-term volatility and achieve sustainable capital appreciation [3]

基 金 研 究 开放式基金策略双周报（20250519-20250530）： 医药生物主题基金表现领跑市场 2025 年 06 月 03 日 投资要点 分析师：李荣 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521010001 F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 资讯 基础市场回顾：近两周权益市场整体承压，高股息红利指数出于防御性 微幅上涨。具体来看，沪深300、中证50和中证1000指数分别下跌1.26%、 0.78%和0.68%，红利指数上涨0.01%。行业方面，涨幅靠前的三个行业分 别是医药生物、环保和传媒。近两周国内债券市场整体表现较好，尽管 权益市场主要指数出现下跌，转债市场整体表现稳定，信用债指数表现 优于国债指数。具体来看，中证全债、中证国债和中证信用债分别上涨 0.07%、0.01%和0.13%。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 基金市场回顾：近两周中国基金指数下跌0.18%。录 ...